저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 2026년 AI 혁명의 수혜주로 애플과 테슬라를 꼽음. 애플은 구글 Gemini 파트너십과 봄 출시 예정 유료 구독 서비스로 AI 수익화가 가능하며 목표가 350달러(현재 277달러), AI로 주당 75~100달러 추가 가치 제시. 테슬라는 자율주행·로보택시·옵티머스 로봇을 근거로 '마법 같은 해'가 될 것이라 주장. OpenAI 기업가치 1조달러는 보수적이며 향후 3~4조달러 지출 등 AI 투자 규모가 확대된다고 봄. 기술 강세장이 다른 기술주로 확산된다는 시각.
다듬은 글
Dan Ies has just laid out two companies he predicts is going to do very well in 2026. Dan, let's talk about specific stocks here. I know you love Apple. Um because you say 2026 is going to be the year when it comes to the AI revolution and one time is going to be a game changer. Elaborate on what what you foresee for the company next year.
Look, I think that you're seeing massive changes within Certino. I mean, they're ripping the band-aid off in terms of what we're seeing from a culture perspective. you've seen change the top which they needed to right I think that's been part of the frustration the last events at uh Apple Park I felt like Michael J Fox in Back to the Future you know because they're just really not going anywhere now it's all about Google Gemini that's going to be a key partnership then ultimately you're going to see probably a paid subscription service as they launch into the spring and you have the the biggest install base in the world monetization is going to be key for Apple the consumer AI Revolution runs through Certino.
So, how much upside is there in the stock? Currently, it's sitting at 277. What's your price target? 350. But look, I think if they get this right, you could have a four in front of it. I I think that's ultimately where where we see Apple heading as this all plays out because you when when you start to put the monetization of AI and you put numbers together, I think it's $75 to $100 per share that AI adds to Apple.
And look, it goes back to Google, right? I mean, you go back six, nine months ago, everyone's like AI is going to ruin their business model. They're they're on the defense of back against the wall. Now look at it, right? And and I think it just speaks to how quickly this tide could turn in terms of that tide turning.
Um, you know, some people are saying that the launch of Gemini, the latest u uh edition of Gemini, the latest launch, uh, was actually a bigger moment than the Deepseek moment at the start of the year because it really put Alphabet on the front foot again and and suggesting that they've leapfrogged uh, the other leader in the space, arguably Open AI, and we've heard that OpenAI has now, you know, initiated a code red at the company to basically step up their efforts and and not let Gemini get ahead and and lose market share.
When we spoke last time, you said Open AAI could be looking at a trillion dollar valuation if they were to come to market near-term. How do you think about Open AI now and what's the right valuation? Yeah, look, it's all in Open AI's world. Everyone else is paying rent. Now, look, Alpha, they have made massive changes.
We're seeing a lot of success coming out of there, but this is an AI arms race and at the top of that mountain continues to be open AI chat GPT. But it comes down to like the the reason they're taking the stakes just like you're seeing Jensen Nvidia, you're building out the stock across the board. I don't view it as a circular financing red flag.
I mean, this is an arms race in terms of, you know, from chips to software. And you're not just going to have one winner. You're going to have many winners in this. And I think it speaks to our view that this tech bull market spreads to other areas of, you know, of this tech equity. Does a trillion dollar market cap still seem right for Open AI?
I think that's probably conservative as we look at once it would go public over the next few years when you look at where they could actually go, what numbers could look like. And then you start to think about 3 to four trillion being spent next few years, four to five trillion being spent over the you know four next five six years and look .
I mean you know mean you've talked about that that's very important you know for many years US is way behind now for the first time you're ahead with the AI revolution then from AI we talk about the chips we talk about applications and models such as Gemini but there's also the application of AI and when we we think about that we often think about Tesla with autonomy with the promises on robotics driverless cars etc a lot of investors going to be looking at Tesla 2026 in an environment where there is continu continued competition from the Chinese in EVs, but also those promise areas, autonomy and robotics.
You are seeing very big advancements over in China as well. What is your outlook for for Tesla next year given some of these competitive factors? I think it's going to be a magical year for Tesla because in my view it all leads now and especially must be wartime CEO with the pay package really f autonomous and robotics that's the future.
Autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone to the Tesla story. Now look, is there competition? Clearly, you've seen it in China. But the reality is globally, I don't think anyone can match what Tesla's going to do, especially with the robo taxi buildout and where I see them, especially when it comes to Optimus and humanoid robots.
So, look, I think Tesla along with Nvidia, those are the two best physical AI players in the market. Apple has made a calculated decision to bypass the expensive AI arms race by outsourcing the brain directly to Google, a move designed to protect their profit margins and avoid massive cash burn. Dan is predicting Apple will release a paid subscription service launching in the spring and calls Google's Gemini a key partnership for Apple.
This aligns with leaked reports from Bloomberg suggesting that Apple's nextg Siri will be secretly powered by Google's Gemini in the back end. To understand why Dan Ies said Apple stock might soar, you have to stop thinking of them as an innovator and start thinking of them as a landlord. Apple owns the most valuable digital real estate on Earth, the pockets of millions of wealthy people.
Google seems to have the smartest AI in the form of Gemini, but they're always on the lookout for more users. Apple has the users but a very dumb AI called Siri. Now, if you want to understand the full picture on why the creation of an AI model is so complex that even Apple is struggling with their own AI model, I built a course that teaches everything from first principles to some more advanced AI ideas in a simple, approachable way.
If you join, you get lifetime access and the pricing goes up each time we add new modules. So, if you want in at the lowest price, now is that moment. Link is below in the description. Back to the video. To understand why Dan Ies is bullish about this for Apple, you have to look at the capex, the capital expenditure trap.
Microsoft and Google are currently hemorrhaging their profit margins by spending billions of dollars on servers that may be obsolete in 2 to 5 years time. Apple is looking at that and saying no thanks. By paying Google to power Siri, Apple adopts an asset light strategy. They buy the intelligence wholesale from Google, wrap it in the beautiful private Apple interface, and sell it retail to you inside the iPhone.
This basically makes Apple a luxury reseller. Apple will be paying Google a flat fee, reported to be around $1 billion. But then that has a chance of triggering a hardware super cycle for Apple. Because these new features require the latest chips, millions of people will likely be forced to buy the new iPhones.
Apple turns Google's expensive R&D into a reason for you to upgrade your phone. They let Google do the heavy lifting of the training of the models while Apple captures the high margin reward of selling the device that runs them. The strategy could be brilliant if they can execute because it turns Apple into the aggregator.
Just like they don't make the games on the app store, but they take a cut of every sale, they won't make the AI models, but they will take a cut of every query. Apple wins twice. once when you buy the new phone and again every month when you pay the Apple intelligent subscription. But while Apple is content with monetizing software in your pocket, Elon Musk is betting the entire house on putting that software into a physical body.
Dan Ives calls Tesla a physical AI play because the market is finally realizing that a self-driving car and a humanoid robot are actually the exact same product. Embodied intelligence. Dan states that autonomy alone is worth trillions to Tesla and points to Optimus, their robot, as the future. This is backed up by Tesla's Q3 2025 earnings call where Elon mentioned that Tesla's Gen 3 Optimus is preparing for RAM production.
What's key to understand is that the software running the car, full self-driving, is basically the same software running the robot, just with legs instead of wheels. Investors get confused because they look at Tesla and see falling car prices. Whereas Dan Ives and someone like myself looking at Tesla and seeing infinite labor.
If Tesla solves self-driving robo taxis, they're selling a taxi driver that works all day and night for free. But Optimus is the bigger play. The car is just a robot that moves people around or from objects from A to B. Optimus is a robot that will be moving everything else. If Tesla can sell a robot for the price of a small car that can fold laundry, stack boxes, or flip burgers, they disrupt the global labor market, which is worth vastly more than the transportation market.
Over the coming few years, Tesla will be shifting from a manufacturing business, which is low margin, to a software business, which is high margin. They build the metal shell once, but they charge you a subscription for the brain every month. And this is why Dan thinks Tesla stock is undervalued. Wall Street keeps trying to price it like a car company, but Elon Musk is building a labor company, a AI synthetic workforce.
The reason Tesla is winning this physical AI race comes down to data. Companies like OpenAI train their models on the internet, which is text and images. That data is now tapped out. They have already read almost every book and website in existence. Tesla is training on video. Every single Tesla on the road is recording millions of miles of real world footage.
How to handle rain, how to predict a pedestrian walking, how to navigate the chaos of the world. This real world data is the new gold. A robot needs to understand physics, not poetry. Because Tesla has a large fleet of cameras on their cars, they have a monopoly on reality. When they transfer that brain into the Optimus robot, it already knows how the world works.
And this is why Elon Musk is acting like a wartime CEO. He knows that if he cracks the code for physical movement first, Tesla has a shot at becoming the most valuable company in the world, effectively owning the global supply of physical work. Most people pour money into ads people ignore. YouTube changes that.
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