저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 하락하는 주식은 기업을 이해하고 있다면 오히려 기회가 될 수 있으며, 단순히 가격이 많이 떨어졌다는 이유만으로 매수하면 안 된다. 핵심 주장: 가격이 급락했다는 사실만으로 저평가라고 볼 수 없고, 회사의 펀더멘털과 밸류에이션을 분석해야 한다. Kaiser Industries 사례처럼 부채가 없어도 기업가치보다 시가총액이 훨씬 낮을 수 있으며, 투자자는 '왜 샀는지'를 알고 있어야 하공황 상황에서 대응할 수 있다. 근거 사례: Carvana(약 $360→$8), Fubo(약 $48→$1), Peloton(약 $162→$9), Polaroid(135→100 이후 추가 하락), Kaiser Industries(26→16→10→3, 자산가치 대비 시가총액 과소, 주당 약 $50 분배 언급), Taco Bell(1972년 $14→$1, 이후 PepsiCo 인수 $42), Apple(1991년 약 $5→1997년 약 $1, 이후 시가총액 2조 달러 이상). RCA, 플로피디스크, Western Union 등은 회복하지 못한 사례로 제시. 리스크/조건: 주가가 0으로 갈 수 있으므로 '3달러면 얼마나 잃겠나'는 논리는 투자금 전액 손실 가능성을 무시한다. 공매도 세력은 하락 종목에서 수익을 낸다. 낮은 가격 자체가 매수 근거가 되지 않는다. 시장 전망(Lynch 인용): 기업 이익은 연평균 약 8% 성장하며 주식시장은 약 9년마다 두 배가 되는 경향이 있다. 변동성은 인간 본성상 불가피하며 오히려 기회로 본다. 이해가 어려우면 뮤추얼펀드 적립을 권한다. 광고: Moomoo 무료 거래 앱 프로모션(영상 스폰서). 참고 자료로 Seeking Alpha와 Patreon 페이지 언급. 종합: 개별 종목 매매 방향 예측 발언은 없고, 시장 장기 전망과 투자 원칙 중심 콘텐츠.
다듬은 글
But if you don't understand the company, if you buy just because the stock went from 26 to 16 and then to 10, what are you going to do when it goes down to nine? What will you do when it drops to eight? What will you do when it drops to seven? This is a problem that occurs in people. Carvana shares were trading at $360 per share and are now worth about $8.
Fubo was trading at $48 per share, and now it's around $1. And Peloton was trading at $162 per share, and is now worth about $9. However, in the late 1990s, Apple struggled with declining sales, high inventories, and stiff competition from rivals such as Microsoft and Dell. As a result, its share price fell from a high of around $5 in 1991 to a low of around $1 in 1997, a drop of more than 80% in 6 years.
Despite this, Apple is now one of the largest companies in the world with a market capitalization of over $2 trillion, which raises an important question we need to answer: how to deal with falling stocks. So in this video, we're going to answer that question by turning to one of the greatest investors of all time, Peter Lynch.
I also want to thank Moomoo for sponsoring this video, but more on that later. People often buy based on the fact that the stock has already fallen significantly. Like, where lower? I remember when Polaroid fell from 130 to 100. People said, “This is a great company, great numbers. If it drops below 100, just buy all the shares .” You know, it really went below 100.
A lot of people bought on that basis, saying, " Look, it went from 135 to 100. Now it's at 95. Why not buy it?" » During the year it was worth 18. And this is a company without debt. That is, the company was simply very overvalued. She fell. I did the same thing in my first or second year at Fidelity, I think: Kaiser Industries went from $26 a share to $16.
I said, " How much lower is it?" She is 16 years old. So we bought one of the largest blocks of Kaiser Industries shares on the American Stock Exchange at $14. I said, " You know, she dropped from 26 to 16. How much lower?" When the price dropped to 10, I called my mother and said, “ Mom, you should pay attention to this Kaiser Industries.
Well, where lower? "It fell from 26 to 10." Well, it dropped to six, to five, to four, to three. And luckily it happened quickly, otherwise I would probably still be a caddy or working at Stop&Shop, but it all happened quickly. I managed to do this...it sped things up. And at the three mark I realized: something is wrong here, because Kaiser Industries owns 40% of Kaiser Steel, 40% of Kaiser Aluminum, 32% of Kaiser Cement, owns Kaiser Broadcasting, Kaiser Sand&Gravel, Kaiser Engineers, owns Jeep, owns a bunch of other businesses, and they had no debt.
I learned this very early. For some, this may be a revelation. It is very difficult to go bankrupt if you have no debts. This... this is not easy. Some people succeed. This is a real...this is a real achievement. But they had no debts , and the entire company, at a price of three dollars, was worth about 75 million.
At that time, it was equal to the cost of one Boeing 747. I said that something was wrong with a company that was being sold for 75 million. I was a little rushed at the 16 mark, but I told myself: it's okay, everything will get better with time. And here's what they did: they distributed all their shares to shareholders.
They gave away shares of Kaiser Cement. They gave away shares of Kaiser Aluminum. They gave away their publicly traded shares of Kaiser Steel. They sold all other lines of business. You were getting about $50 per share. But if you didn't understand the company, if you bought just because the stock fell from 26 to 16 and then to 10, what would you do when the price fell to nine?
What would you do when it dropped to eight? What would you do when it dropped to seven? This is the problem that people face. They sell stocks because they don't know why they bought them. Then the price drops and they don't know what to do next. Flip a coin? Walking around the block? Do you know what you are doing?
And psychiatrists have n't helped yet. I've never seen them invest money in a psychiatric care fund. I have never seen the SEC approve this as a mutual fund. So, it looks like they didn't help. I tried praying, it didn't work. So, if you don't understand a company, you have a problem when its stock falls .
After all, they always come back. And this... this doesn't work either. People thought RCA was about to return to its peak in 1929 when GE Electric took it over. Many double jerseys never returned. Remember these beauties ? Floppy disks, Western Union— the list goes on forever. People say that everything will come back.
Well, it's not at all necessary that it will return. Here's another phrase you hear all the time. It costs $3, how much can I lose? I've had people call me and say, "I'm thinking of buying three of these stocks , how much can I lose?" Again , you may need a piece of paper, but if you invested $20,000 in 50-share stocks, or your neighbor invested $20,000 in 50-share stocks, and you invested $20,000 in three-share stocks, and they go down to zero, you lose exactly the same amount of money—all of it.
And people say, "It costs three , how much can I lose?" Well, if you put a million dollars into it , you'll lose a million dollars. The very fact that stocks...is perhaps the only reason to research stocks. Just because a stock is worth three dollars after falling from a hundred doesn't mean it's worth buying.
In fact, short sellers , the people who really make money on stocks, don't play short on Walmart, Home Depot, Great Companies, or Johnson & Johnson. They are playing on the downside with stocks that have fallen from 80 to seven. They would like to bet on a decrease of 16 or 22, but at seven they understand that the company is going to zero.
They just haven't announced her final demise yet. It goes to zero. And they sell short positions of seven, six, five , four, three, two, one and a half. And you know what, to sell something short, you need a buyer. And you ask: who buys this? These are the people who say, "That's worth three." How much lower is that, right?
Peter Lynch notes: the fact that stocks have fallen significantly in price does not mean that they have become cheap or are trading at a bargain price. And I completely agree with that. That is why I pay so much attention to the fundamentals and valuation of the companies I analyze. Let's go back to Peter Lynch to hear his final thoughts.
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This is an exclusive and limited time offer. Click on the link below to learn more. Now let's get back to Peter Lynch. Are you concerned about the volatility in today's financial markets? Do you think something needs to be done to reduce it ? I...I love volatility. I'm reminded of 1972, when the market crashed significantly and Taco Bell shares fell from $14 to $1 .
They had no debts. None of their restaurants closed. I started buying seven of them, but I kept going and they dropped to one. In 1978, it was the largest position in Magellan when it was bought out by PepsiCo for $42. I think the price would have reached 400 if it weren't for that ransom. In my opinion, volatility is great.
I believe that these mechanisms for limiting fluctuations are very important. I don't think it's good for the public when the market jumps 80 points one day and falls 80 the next . I don't think that's very good. But I believe that all these restrictions and other measures to curb daily volatility are important.
Although the market will still go up and down. Human nature hasn't changed much in the last 25,000 years. And some event will suddenly change the course of the market, forcing it to go down or up. So, volatility is inevitable and markets will continue to experience these ups and downs. I think it's a great opportunity if people understand what they have.
If they don't understand what they have, they can invest in mutual funds. Buy your mutual funds and continue to replenish them constantly. Overall, corporate profits have historically grown at about 8% per year. So corporate profits double about every 9 years. The stock market should double approximately every 9 years.
So, I think the next market is around 3800 today, 3700. I'm pretty confident that the next 3800 points will be up. They won't go down. The next 500 points, the next 600 points—I don't know which way they're going to go. So, the market should double over the next 8 or 9 years. It should double again in the next 8 or 9 years after that.
Because profits will grow by 8% per year. And the stocks will follow them. That's all you need to know. Lynch perfectly sums up what to do when stocks are falling in these clips and one of his most famous quotes: Know what you know and know why you know it. This may seem obvious, but unfortunately, it is a mistake that many investors make.
My advice is to learn to study companies more deeply , rather than just watching their stocks rise and fall . Learn to analyze fundamental indicators, master valuation methods, and understand the overall business model. These three simple steps will help you get ahead of 90% of most investors . There are many great resources to help you dig deeper, such as Seeking Alpha and my Patreon page, which has phenomenal stock evaluation tools.
Links to both of these resources are in the description below. So that's all, thank you for watching and please don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel.
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