저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드의 유전체 투자 철학은 라이트의 법칙(누적 생산량 두 배마다 단가 일정 비율 하락)에 근거하며, 유전체 시퀀싱 시장 성장을 노린 ARKG 상위 종목(퍼시픽바이오사이언스·CRISPR·텔레독·트위스트바이오사이언스)을 소개하는 영상이다. 투자 권유가 아닌 분석이라고 명시. 투자 철학: 캐시 우드(ARK Invest)는 무어의 법칙 대신 라이트의 법칙을 신봉한다. 자동차 Model T와 테슬라 Model 3 사례처럼 생산량이 늘수록 비용이 꾸준히 떨어진다고 본다. 유전체 시퀀싱은 2019년 260만 건에서 2024년 1억 500만 건으로 늘어날 것으로 전망된다. 퍼시픽바이오사이언스(PACB): ARKG 최대 보유 종목. SMRT 시퀀싱으로 짧고 긴 DNA를 모두 읽으며, 일루미나 대비 정확도 우위가 확인됐다고 설명. 시퀀싱 시장은 향후 7년간 연 11.7% 성장 전망. 주가는 1년간 300% 이상 상승, 2021년 매출 성장률 75% 예상. 발언자는 5~10년 보유 목적이라면 매수 가치가 있다고 언급. CRISPR 테라퓨틱스: ARKG 2위 보유. 유전자 편집 시장은 연 17% 성장 전망. 겸상적혈구병 임상에서 첫 환자가 치료 후 4개월째 적혈구의 94.7%가 편집 단백질을 보유. 주가는 12개월간 155% 상승, 2021년 매출 400% 성장 예상. 변동성이 크지만 장기적으로 매력적이라는 평가. 텔레독 헬스: 원격진료 선두 기업. 2020년 인터치헬스 인수. 원격의료 시장 2020~2027년 연 15.1% 성장 전망. 2021년 매출 80% 성장 예상, 주가매출비율(P/S) 17배. 아직 흑자 전환 전이나 매출총이익률 30~40% 유지, 성장 중심 경영을 긍정적으로 평가. 트위스트 바이오사이언스: 합성 DNA 제작(DNA 프린팅) 기업. 합성생물학 시장 2025년 200억 달러 전망(연 23.9% 성장). 코로나 검사 유전자 설계도 제작 사례 언급. 주가 1년간 500% 이상 상승으로 가격 부담 지적. 리스크: 주가 급등에 따른 높은 밸류에이션, 흑자 전환 지연, 임상 결과 불확실성, 경쟁 심화(일루미나, 옥스퍼드 나노포어). 발언자는 본인이 투자 자문가가 아니며 각자 실사가 필요하다고 명시. 출연자 전망: 전반적으로 긍정적이나 개별 종목 매수 권유는 명시적으로 하지 않음.
다듬은 글
our world is going to be changed forever over the next 15 to 20 years think about the food on your plate the pets you have the plants in your garden the cells of your brain and body and even the mosquitoes buzzing near you all of this can be altered in the future thanks to some up and coming genomics companies believe it or not we are entering the stage of human trials and not surprisingly this opens up a massive investment opportunity this video will focus on where these developments are headed in the future what trials already occurred and which companies are the best to invest in kathy wood the ceo and cio of arkhanvest has had a lot of success when it comes to finding innovative companies as a result i will be going in depth on the top holdings of the arc genomic etf or arkg first we will look at arc invest's investing philosophy in the genomic space then we will examine what each of their holdings does and what they bring to the platform of dna sequencing and genomics in general the genomics developments in this video will be very exciting even if you don't end up investing in these companies with that being said please consider subscribing if you haven't already and let's get right into it before we begin i just want to leave a quick disclaimer i am not a financial advisor and as viewers you must do your own due diligence in your own research and make your own decisions at the end of the day kathy wood is invested in the genome sector and she does indeed benefit from bringing more attention to the sector today we are simply examining and analyzing kathy with investments in this sector and not trying to give out any investment advice in particular with that being said let's get right into it the investment philosophy of arkhan vest is truly unique in its form arkhan vest is a firm believer in wright's law rather than the traditional measurement moore's law moore's law states that the number of transistors on a chip would double every two years which implies a technology cost declined by half every two years in simple terms moore's law states that the cost of technology will have every two years on the other hand wright's law which archinvest believes is more accurate claims that for every cumulative doubling of the units produced costs fall by a constant percentage this law is essentially stating that with a higher scale of production the cost per unit will fall this doesn't imply that costs will go to zero but rather that cost will decline dramatically moore's law has been inaccurate because it compared costs with a set time frame which is very hard to measure against over extended periods of time on the other hand wright's law uses production volume which is seen as a much more accurate variable this is what arkhanvest embodies in his investment decisions which is what they believe will drive innovation forward and also provide them with hidden investment opportunities an article written by sam korroos an analyst at arc invest states that wright's law correctly predicted the decline of auto production costs for over 100 years this was proven when he showed the average price of the model t as the number of model t units were produced the cost declined on average about 15 percent this was also seen with the tesla model 3 which you can see with this graph and unlike moore's law which requires that innovation and demand have to be a constant increase for two years riot's law is much more feasible they also believe that wright's law applies to many industries and that the genomic sector will be the next sector to demonstrate this if we take a look at this table we can see that costs have dropped substantially this is with the introduction of new technology which in this case is crispr technology furthermore arc invests continue to see wright's law come into play this is because of a logarithmic-like growth of a genome sequencing market and as wright's law states as cumulative production doubles costs will decrease by a constant percentage they believe that from 2.6 million genomes in 2019 we will see 105 million genomes sequenced in 2024 with the arc genomic revolution etf kathy wood and arc invest will do their best to capture this market by investing in what they believe will be the dominant leaders in genomic sequencing however this will not be entirely genome stocks as they are only a subcategory of dna sequencing in general now let's take a look at the top holdings of the arkg portfolio and what they do arc invest's largest holding in its genomics etf is easily pacific biosciences pacific biosciences develops and manufactures gene sequencing systems their main technology system allows them to read gene sequencing at an extremely fast rate and very accurately this technology is called smrt sequencing or single molecule real-time sequencing what pacific biosciences is able to do is that when the primer the matching nucleotides with the existing dna or rna is moving through a beam of light is emitted that scans the connection the amount of light that is emitted shows what letter of the dna is read just for a quick review those letters are a c g and t or adenine cytosine guanine and thymine these base pairs a c g and t can be quickly read by pacific biosciences so that users can quickly and conveniently see the sequence of the dna that is being read with such a large sector opening up it's no surprise that pacific biosciences has competitors out of all of the competitors out there the largest one is illumina about one month ago cathy wood actually sold oliver stock in illumina for a few main reasons illumina focuses on reading short dna sequences where a specific biosciences specializes in reading both short and long sequences this is all done with a method named ccs wenger the principal scientist of pacific biosciences believes that pacific's ccs method matches or exceeds the ability of short read sequencing to detect small variants and structural variants wenger's words were truly backed up when pacific biosciences was more accurate than illumina and oxford nanopore this competition showed that pacific biosciences was now the industry leader and because of that cathy wood believes that pacific biosciences is set to take the majority of the market share in gene sequencing analysts estimate that the market for gene sequencing will grow at an average rate of 11.7 percent every year over the next seven years which clearly shows that this sector will compound at a fast rate arc invest believes that pacific biosciences will be at the forefront of this growing market the stock is already up over 300 in the past year due to the fact that it's been taking market share from illumina although the stock price is high the company is expected to have its revenue grow 75 in 2021 and long term the company does have a lot of potential personally i would only purchase this stock with the intent of holding it for 5 to 10 years as that is when the evaluation will become worth it crispr therapeutics is arc invest's second largest position in the arc genomics portfolio and it's that large for a reason in the simplest form crispr is a technology that can be used to edit genes the technology searches for a specific portion of dna inside a cell and alters that portion of the dna to simplify that crispr allows you to edit your dna now that isn't the only thing crispr can do crispr technology has been developed to be able to turn genes on or off without altering people's dna sequence before crispr was unveiled in 2012 editing plant and animal genomes was actually possible however the process took many years and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars crispr has revolutionized this by making genome editing cheap and easy to do as i mentioned earlier this technology has now been transitioning to human trials one of these trials includes sickle cell disease sickle cell disease is caused by mutation in a gene called the hemoglobin beta gene it affects over 100 000 people in the u.s and makes a protein that creates deformed blood cells these deformed blood cells are signal shaped hard and sticky and don't carry oxygen normally crispr looks to tackle this disease and has actually had successful human trials so far in 2019 victoria gray became the first patient to receive treatment for sickle cell disease the preliminary data has been fascinating four months after receiving treatment gray already had 94.7 percent of the red blood cells containing the edited protein of course it will take much more research after the initial trials and crispr will be doing much more tests with a larger sample size with the same close monitoring in addition to sickle cell disease similar trials are taking place to treat other genetic disorders such as cancer and impaired vision from an investing perspective crispr's technology definitely has a lot of potential but that potential comes with a lot of volatility if you're in for the long term however then crispr will be quite an appealing investment the approach of editing genes makes a lot of sense from a biological perspective the market for gene editing is expected to grow 17 per year for the next five years and crispr is set to become the leading innovator in this field crispr stock is up 155 in the past 12 months and it's for a pretty good reason as a business the company is set to grow exponentially with the ramp up of the technology in fact in 2021 crispr sales are expected to grow over 400 percent which is definitely a significant amount teletalk health is a business that has been greatly impacted by the pandemic many of you may have even tried teledoc services during these times teledoc is the first and largest provider of online doctor appointments without insurance each teledoc meeting costs 75 dollars per visit however with insurance this cost can go as low as zero dollars per visit depending on your insurance benefits now teledoc's business goes beyond doctor appointments in january of 2020 teledoc acquired intouch health a company that provides telehealth solutions for hospitals the vision of teledoc is to get into the entire telehealth market this creates an enticing long-term investment opportunity from 2020 to 2027 the telehealth market is expected to grow 15.1 percent per year and because of that it's no surprise that arkan fest is invested in the leader of telehealth which is teledoc out of all the stocks on this list teledoc is definitely one of the stocks that isn't as highly valued the company is estimated to have its sales grow 80 in 2021 and has a price to sales ratio of 17.
the company hasn't been able to make profits yet due to increased advertising acquisition and research and development expenses nevertheless because teledoc has a gross margin consistently in between 30 to 40 percent it is evidence that profitability is coming however televox management is definitely focused on growth over profits which is a positive sign for a growth stock like teledoc overall in my opinion telelock is a pretty enticing long-term investment and it's easy to understand why twist biosciences is an extremely interesting company both from a biological and investment standpoint twist focuses on creating synthetic dna also known as dna printing imagine being able to create dna from the ground up with your own dna sequence through dna synthesis scientists will be able to discover new therapies at a low price create new self-fertilizing plants and generate more sustainable chemicals and biomaterials in fact twist biosciences was actually able to write the instructions for creating rona tests and ended up sending those instructions to testing companies in 2020 the market for synthetic biology was estimated to be 6.8 billion dollars by 2025 analysts estimate that this market will be worth 20 billion dollars this is equivalent to an annual growth rate of 23.9 every year which is definitely not something to overlook twist biosciences will be at the forefront of this sector but it definitely comes at a cost twist is already up over 500 in the past year so there you have it the top four holdings of the arkg portfolio what do you think about arc invest portfolio in the genomic space and arc invest in general also there are other investments that i didn't go into so if you'd like to see a part 2 leave it in the comment section below
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