저자: KevinPratt · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 세액공제(7,500달러) 종료 후 가격 인하가 불가피하며, 저가형 모델 출시(Model Y 간소화 버전 위장 노출)를 통해 가격을 낮출 것으로 봄. 현재 금융 혜택 축소는 재고 소진·생산 전환 전략이며 내일 저가형 발표와 함께 특별 금융이 나올 것으로 예상. 매출·마진 가정(2027년 400만 대, 평균 3.3만 달러, 마진 15%) 기준 제작사 기준 약 207달러, 서비스 기업 기준 약 324달러로 계산하며 현 주가 대비 괴리는 로보택시·옵티머스 기대치 반영으로 해석. AMD는 엔비디아 대비 가격 결정력이 약해 칩 고점 우려를 언급.
다듬은 글
We got to talk Tesla stock and Tesla stock valuation. So Tesla is pulling one of the best of 4D chess moves ever right now. This is absolutely brilliant. If you've been watching the channel, you might already know that I've been talking about a risk with Tesla obviously being that they're going to have to reduce prices after the tax credit expired.
We all already know that there's a massive pull forward that happened before the tax credit expired going into September 30th. And that's how we got record deliveries surpassing even Q4 of 24, Q4 of 23. I mean, these were record deliveries. Production was lower, but that's okay. We had a bunch of standing inventory, cleaned house, baby.
But see, after a $7,500 tax credit goes away, we have to recognize the reason from an economic point of view that people were able to afford, let's say, a $40,000 vehicle was because the net cost was really only like 325, taking off the tax credit, not even getting into the fact that, you know, tax credits are maybe even more valuable than that.
So when that goes away, some of that hurts a company's margins and some of that hurts an individual's buying power. How much depends on the company's PP or pricing power. The bigger the company's PP, well, the less it affects them. For example, this morning in the course member liveream, we talked with course members and we're like, "Wow, this AMD news, this is really cool.
This is great." But is there a risk that this AMD deal is a sign that AMD just has smaller PPE than Nvidia? And there's really nowhere you need to go further than the actual Nvidia and AMD income statements to determine that yes, AMD has substantially smaller PP than Nvidia. Now, that's not to say we should be bearish on chips, although we were pretty convinced that the top was in this morning in the course of our live stream.
It is to say that Nvidia takes five times as much money as AMD to the bottom line and that is a sign of pricing power. Their gross margin is like you know AMD's got like roughly half of the gross margin that Nvidia does. That's a sign of PP pricing power. So what happens when you take away a $7,500 topline incentive while a company like Tesla is probably going to have to reduce prices.
The problem is reducing prices does not reconcile well with stock price up. And Elon want stock price up. We want stock price up real big. We want big peep. Okay. How do we get more car sales at lower car prices without suggesting that prices for cars are going down? It's simple. More affordable model.
What a surprise. What a surprise that just three days after, literally, you can't make this up, three days after the tax credits expire, what happens? They drive a Model Y around Giga Texas without any camo on it. That is a more affordable version. Folks, people try to make this look candid. I don't think people accidentally saw this Model Y driving around and Tesla's like slip.
Like this is all this is all done on purpose. Like what happens is they make it seem like you've got candid photos and they leak this stuff to the Tesla fanboys and fan girls that that you know that which is fine. That's just that's how media works, right? like some inside employee will be like, "Hey, don't tell anyone, but I got the or like don't tell anyone my name, but I got these leaked images of this this happening over here or whatever." Uh, and then that's how it makes the news.
So, that's how Tesla can like unofficially engineer news by utilizing other people who cover news for Tesla as their leak conduit. And then Tesla go, h how how come they took the car out without cable on it? Oh no, this is horrible. It's all by design. It's by design. This is how business 101 works.
And this is purposely a 4D chess move because it is an opportunity for Tesla to say we are lowering the prices of our cars. Except rather than the stock market going oh VP small they have to lower the prices. The stock market goes hell yeah more affordable vehicle. Except it's not a different vehicle.
Like I would love if they came out with a big van or a robo van or whatever, right? It's fine. it that it's not going to happen for a while. I'll I'll be stuck with a Mercedes Sprinter van or a Ford Transit or or whatever for for all my seven kids. That said, this is great for Tesla because we need prices to be more affordable.
Like, if Tesla the worst thing that Tesla could do would be the tax credit goes away and they don't reduce prices. That would be the worst thing they could do because that would be stubborn. it would not be an economic reality. It would not be a smart business decision. So Tesla is actually, you know, even though we're just like exposing the whole MO here, they're actually doing exactly what they should be doing, which is lowering the average cost per vehicle of these cars.
Now, what's different about this car? Not actually that much. Uh like we've got a great post here that breaks it down for you. No front light bar. The front bumper extends to the middle where the light bar was. You've got uh you know less of that glass roof on the top. You've got uh you know some miscellaneous other changes.
There's really like not that much that's different in the vehicle. Uh so the other model has a light bar going across over here. So it looks a little bit more basic, but that's okay. Who cares? Like there are plenty of people who want a no frills car and they don't want, you know, all the glitz and glamour.
They just want a car that they can get from point A to point B in reasonable safety and comfort in. That is extremely reasonable. Here's a side by side that I thought was useful. You could actually see here's that light bar. Here's no light bar. You can see the lights are a little different over here.
This one obviously has a roof rack whereas this one doesn't. But that's that's probably just a separate upgrade or marketing. You can see the uh the back over here is a little more simplified though. Over here in fairness, the lights are on whereas here they're not. And this is a marketing photo versus this being a real photo.
Nominal differences, but it's going to be a way to reduce the price of the vehicle. So, right now, if you go to uh tesla.com and uh we can actually see on the front page, we've got the new Model Y performance. Order yours. We've also got uh FSD14 that's supposed to be getting released today, which is really fantastic.
Uh we'll see it got delayed from last week. And we'll talk in just a moment about, you know, price forecasts and price targets for the stock. But understand right now, if you go to the financing tab right here, they got rid of the APR benefits. So, like right now, they're doing the purposeful sandbag where they don't really want sales of these vehicles.
If they wanted sales of the Model Y performance right now, they would have 0% APR. They don't want sales of this because they're probably shifting production from the more expensive Model Y's, which they just cleared the inventory out of. They're probably shifting production to the lowerc cost vehicle and then tomorrow 107 they're probably going to announce the lowerc cost vehicle and I bet you they will also have special introductory financing.
It'll be like 0% APR or whatever. I mean look at this. Why why is the long range rearwheel drive 3.99 and the performance 5.14? It's because they don't want to produce as much of the performance. It's it's all based on inventory, supply and demand. Very simple, right? Let's go to the Model 3 here for a moment.
And let's go to uh order now on the Model 3. Financing offers here, $299 on the Model 3. They print these for days. They want to incentivize these. Look, they'll give you any model of the Model 3. Uh they print these. So, they're incentivizing production there or, you know, sales there now. And you can even see the banner 299 APR.
I expect that when this new model comes out, you'll probably see a combination of intro financing and a substantially lower price. Now, that lower price on the Model 3, my expectation is you really want to see this probably be under $35,000 on the cash price. The problem is I don't think it's going to happen.
Uh, so I would like my best case scenario is under 35 for a no frrills Model Y. Best case scenario, probably not going to get it. It will probably be a $39,000 vehicle, which if you think about it, that kind of makes sense. $45,000 minus the $7,500 tax credit uh leaves about $24.99 between where the new price is and where the old price is.
And now you could kind of justify getting a model without the tax credit because it's the more affordable model and it's still roughly the nearly the same price. It's about $24.99 more than it was previously. That's my guess as to where they're they'll go. If they go all the way to 35, it's a sign of pricing power.
Okay, so this is how you can actually help deter or you yourself can figure out how much pricing power Tesla has. So I'm going to write you a little menu here. Okay, so this is your playbook for tomorrow. Playbook uh for tomorrow. All right. So, if price $399, uh, Tesla pricing power equals $24.99 on Model Y.
We're assuming zero value for the fact that you're getting a, you know, cheaper car because honestly, most people don't give a flying hoodie that, you know, it doesn't have the full light bar or whatever. Most buyers aren't going to care. They're going to be payment sensitive. They're like, I just want I just want the Tesla.
I just I want I want FSD, whatever. Right. Okay. Uh if the price comes in at 35, uh then Tesla's pricing power will actually be negative uh $2,500 on Model Y. That means you've now net gone beyond the tax credit. Uh so uh you know, and then obviously you've got neutral uh pricing power at 375 uh for the affordable model, right?
So if they really want to ramp sales, you go 35. So this here, this this would be an actual uh price decrease uh and uh would be great for sales volume. Me personally, I would want uh sub 35K for that affordable vehicle. I know that's that's that's big. It's going to hit margins, but it's going to get us volume.
It's going to get Tesla back in that momentum. Okay? Back to momentum uh of growth following surge of uh tax credit buys, right? And that's what you want. You want to incentivize that that momentum again. Keep this puppy going. Keep these factories cranking. That's what I would I would personally love to see this.
I don't think they're going to do this. I think they'll end up going incremental. And this in my opinion would be bad like worse for the stock. I know this is worse for the stock because you are still net price increasing uh buyers you know following the credit right so near-term uh this would be I should say long-term stock longer term right because we want volume and we're not going to see that volume really level out until you know the next 12 months really on a new model okay good so all that said let's Now go into our Tesla sheet, which has been a minute since we've done our Tesla sheet.
Uh, and let's go do some updates over here. So, by the end of 2027, uh, you know, I still think our revenue per vehicle is going to fall. Uh, and I'm going to reduce this even more now since we don't have the credits. Uh, and we've written some notes over here as well already about reducing the revenue per vehicle, but I honestly think we're probably going to get down to an average rev per vehicle by the end of 27 of about 30.
Honestly, probably 32 33 even. I'll call it 33 even. Ideally, we get to 4 million vehicles in 27. Okay. Now, we're going to go we've got revenue, service, uh, energy. Energy. This is still This is probably going to get hit. I'm going to write a little note here. Reducing from 26 bill due to uh Trump cuts to Dem states.
This is where you're going to see some energy hit. This was supposed to double from 13 bill. I'm going to actually take this down to 20 billion because I do think we're going to see a real loss of mega pack buyers unfortunately as not only the solar panel credits uh expire at the end of the year for solar panels on residential on residences but also we end up getting um unfortunately lower city buying.
So, okay, we'll drop that to 20. So, that will slow growth a little bit. I I consider most of these things extra. I consider FSD part of margin. Uh I'm not going to price in anything for insurance or semis or the Optimus. Uh third party FSD revenue has always just kind of been a scam. So I'm not going to price that in.
So I'm going to go with margin. So margin honestly is probably going to be closer to 85. So our expense margin 85 because right now we're operating I mean let's let's look at the last sheet. I think we were at like 157. So this was our previous sheet. In the previous shareholder deck, we can see X credits.
We wrote down 15% still good. That's what we want to use now. And we're going to have potentially some hit due to advertising. We assume potentially a 1 percentage point gross margin hit due to advertisements. So let's throw in 1% as well for ads. Let's go 14%. Even though that ad section will be coming out in SGNA, I'm going to go ahead and throw it into gross margin.
There we go. Or you know what? We'll throw it into SGNA. Screw it. We'll put it in over here. I'll bump that. And I'll make a little note that we did that. So, we'll throw a little note here. We'll say uh bumped uh SGNA to 7% from 6% due to advertising. Well, we throw in an extra 1% there. No big deal.
Okay, cool. So, now we've got 15% margin. We've got 4 million deliveries by the end of 27, 33,000 average price per vehicle. And this doesn't really include anything on Optimus. This doesn't include anything on uh really FSD um revenues beyond what's already built into the vehicle margin. So this this should be low compared to where the stock price is right now.
So if we look at this as a manufacturer, this puts us at 207. As a service provider, it puts us at 324. So basically as as a vehicle producing company if we can pull this off by 27 we'll make a note here. So this will be our 1026 or 106 bottom line. Okay as manufacturer only. Let's make it so you can see as a manufacturer only it's probably about a $28 stock at 15% margins.
Okay. As a serer you know it's a 324 stock. 324 stock and this does not include robo taxi or optimus uh revenues. So basically the delta between the stock price today you know let's say stock today uh 450 uh the delta or the difference between the two the targets uh and the stock price equals optimis optimus and robo taxi um hope basically uh that's that's what's being priced in so it's interesting it gives us a little bit of guide in terms of where the stock is fundamentally I think if you could get these margins up again I I don't really think you're going to get off this but if you could get back to you know 18% margins let's see what that looks like if I could get to 18% margins we would actually move to about an extra 50 bucks $47 as manufacturer only at 18% gross margins 255 5 at 15% gross margins.
And if I go serer with those margins, uh will be almost $400. So 397 397 with 18% gross margins. So, it so shows you even with higher gross margins, we're the market's definitely still pricing in a lot of enthusiasm for other aspects of the business that are hard to put a handle on right now. Uh, but I'm I'm really optimistic about the pricing tomorrow.
I want to see what happens with the pricing. The lower the better. That's my vision for it. Uh, lower the better because as I always say, I want this company be cranking printing cars again. Uh, so that's my reaction to what's going on with Tesl.
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