저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 이번 주 실적 발표가 없어 촉매가 부족하지만, 빅테크 capex가 계속 늘고 있어 수요는 견조하다는 분석. 젠슨 황의 AI 인프라 재설계 수요가 최소 10년간 이어질 것으로 전망. 반면 TSMC 미국 공장 및 인텔 제조 이슈, 경쟁 심화 우려는 제한적이라는 시각. 엔비디아가 AI·클라우드 리더십을 유지할 것이라는 긍정적 결론.
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uh but there are uh I have HP on this week uh you Packard Enterprises today I have to tell you oh you got Antonio tonight yeah he is he's very good and I underestimated how great he is initially but his story is about how he works so well with Nvidia and Nvidia needs help to get in so but anyway I mean right now Nvidia doesn't have the catalyst so no other than Jensen is everywhere all the time all at once I mean he's amazing he's is there any podcast he hasn't been on yet was he on Joe Rogan I don't know has he not been on Joe Rogan maybe I don't know um he does make himself available nice Jason Kelce they have a podcast right top rated he hasn't been on with them either I drink Campbell Soup cuz Jason Kel you do you're easily well you're easily influenced of course yeah this video discusses the performance and market dynamics around Nvidia and the semiconductor sector particular l in relation to upcoming earnings and Tech infrastructure Investments nvidia's stock has fluctuated with Market Watchers awaiting its earnings report to confirm demand strength the video also touches on CEO Jensen hang's efforts to build Partnerships and keep Nvidia relevant in Ai and Cloud Market the video highlights concerns over sustainability in the semiconductor industry with ATT tension on nvidia's ability to maintain dominance despite increased competition analysts discuss nvidia's Partnerships and the large-scale Investments needed to support growing Ai and Cloud Demand with other chip companies like Intel and tsmc facing challenges in US production there is also a policy debate around the chips Act and the role of domestic manufacturing finally the discussion shifts to high Capital expenditures in cloud and AI technology as companies race to re architect infrastructures to handle Advanced Computing need with AI models requiring significant computing power Nvidia is seen as well positioned to benefit from ongoing demand in the sector which could drive growth well into the next decade notice notice Nidia was up A180 and now it's now it's like barely up what is that now it's down Taiwan Taiwan semi's down very big well is I make as much of that as I make about the fact that alphabet was up big Nvidia is problematic here because the it doesn't report this week so it can't speak for itself it's the 21st I believe although we last week Jim uh that that JP Morgan desk note looking at skyx and Taiwan semi and arguing it does set up Nvidia for a nice print I think Invidia is going to have a big number I also thought that there was much more to Jensen Wong's uh fireside chat in India and when you look what he was talking about it's pretty positive but right now it doesn't have the Catalyst that the others have maybe bits and pieces that that tracks that's what I hear from Tech investors in San Francisco as well be interesting to see sir Brisco public Stacy rascon thanks as always for your insights right last quarter though we saw the market a little bit skittish not a little very skittish actually around their spending plans capex continues to go up as they build out artificial intelligence infrastructure what do investors want to see this quarter investors want to see less spending on capex but the challenge is they can't stop and so we had about 106.2 billion in capex spending in the first half of the year and we're expecting another 60 billion in Q3 taking out the year to 231 billion in cback spending and that means the big winner is going to be Nvidia the big winnner is going to be energy companies on the other end however given that it's so hard to compete on AI and Cloud this is really what gives them the advantage that's why there's only a few winners in this play and so what investors are hoping for is slower capex spending and of course more Returns on the AI and more Returns on the cloud side there I think there's there's two angles one is how strong are its customers how strong is demand going to be and uh then you've got I guess competitors to that want to get into the the same business and on both of those U metrics I think you think Nvidia is is well positioned there still the leader and demand is still going to be strong yeah good morning Joe I think the key is that uh their customers are in a race uh to rearchitecturing improvements in uh generative Ai and these large language models which by the way you know the Computing requirements uh to train some of these models are growing four to five times a year so this is not your You Know M law progressing every 2 years this is technology that is changing every uh you know four to five times a year so we need to throw a ton of computing infrastructure and it is not just the processors it is networking it is Optics it is software it is developers it is bringing it all together and in our mind there is only one company that can bring it all uh together this is expensive no doubt um you know we are going from Capital intensity uh for a lot of these Cloud players that used to be 9 or 10% and now it's 15 or 16% right capex is growing 50 plus per a year but we do think uh that this is very important uh for them it can open up new Revenue opportunities and this buildout and re architecting can last at least through the next decade with a four or five year of initial buildout and then a lot more uh success-based uh buildout I'm just I'm you know whatever I see last i b that's true whatever thought in your head was last is what you tell us touche Queens Philadelphia there it is right there right Mets beat Phillies uh we also continue to monitor the market cap battle between Nvidia and apple let's unpack the chip sector further with Bernstein semiconductor analyst Stacy rascon Stacy it's great to see you uh Nvidia doesn't report until late kind of lsh November but of course we had so so many signals this week right um with capex from some of the Meg s what do they need to show us to keep the Nvidia party going look they just need to show us that demand is there and strong and ideally growing right I mean the the big concern with I mean there's a number of concerns when anything runs this much but I mean the biggest concern has just been sustainability like the numbers have gotten so big so quickly you you just worry that it can't keep going and like as of right now from everything we can see it looks like it's still going like I I I get the nervousness it clearly is not time to worry this year I don't even think it's time to worry next year we we'll we'll see as we go farther out but I think at this point they just need to show that demand is is strong and growing and accelerating and at least from where we're standing right now everything we can see things look pretty good I think right Stacey I want to ask you about the story that SEMA was just talking about and that is the idea that um Trump especially but perhaps both candidates would crack down on manufacturing of chips inside of the US but what we've seen from tsmc versus what we haven't seen from Intel sort of talk about that and what it would mean if tsmc wasn't able to ramp up here in the United States I it's look I I'll be honest so I heard Trump's comments as well and he was what did what did he say on on Rogan he said he didn't like the chips act he wanted to replace it with tff I it makes look it's it's Trump so he's going to he's going to Trump his is going to Trump but it doesn't make any sense right the idea that like Taiwan has stolen quote unquote our our chip making abili is ridiculous like that that is not true and like not allowing foreign companies to make chips on us so that that is actually what we want I mean look the the whole like the idea that we are dependent on Taiwan and that is becoming increasingly an untenable situation is is very true and you know we want to get Leading Edge infrastructure built here in the US and to be honest from a policy standpoint it really shouldn't be mattering all that much who who is building it I understand why Intel has sort of named the national champion but if the goal is really to get as much Leading Edge capacity built here as quickly as possible we should be giving the money to the folks who who can build it and as of right now that that entity is is tsmc and you're right you know there were there was some news flow of last week that suggested that their yield ramp in Arizona is actually exceeding targets and maybe even exceeding what they do in Taiwan there are no other players is neither in nor Samsung they can make claims of anywhere near that so if the goal is to build the capacity and get it here and installed and running in the US to to you know to dest the supply chain that that's happening right now and so stopping that would be a problem sure have we have we given up on Intel then well we we we'll see I they report on they report earnings on Thursday I guess we'll see what they have to to say but I mean clearly you know in Intel's core businesses Under Pressure they're they're losing share and they can't rely on their own manufacturing right now they're so so they're actually Outsourcing more which is impacting gross margins and everything like that so they are their suggestion is that they believe their process Rob over time is getting fixed they're going to bring that volume back into the US and it's going to make everything you know wonderful I guess we'll see you know they they they they had a a a day of a few months ago where they were sort of giving out some targets for where they thought things could go over time and it really was like a 2030 story right even if they are on track like it's it's a slug between now and and and when we would actually see things really start to improve and as of right now we don't actually know if they're truly improving or or not so strap in for Thursday I guess um uh it'll be entertaining uh if nothing else I'm sure yeah we're not going to get in video for a little bit Stacy but you know every so often you hear I'm sure you do it more than I do H well there's you know a small company over here that's developing a Next Generation chip that's going to ultimately disintermediate or or or push Nvidia to the side I mean how long is there dominance do you think going to last well I I mean there's always somebody in the wings that this is an enormous market right the idea that there's not going to be others trying to take a piece of that pie is ridiculous of course they are now that being said like nvidia's built up their position in in Silicon and hardware and software and systems and ecosystem over oh 10 or 20 years right and they they've put those Moes into place and so anybody that is trying to get in there and and I'm not talking that people can't get little bits clearly you know A and B and others are getting you know little bits but to be like material in that market you've got to like like penetrate those Moes and it's very very difficult thing to do and especially for a startup I when you just look at the the uh the amount of of of money that Nvidia has to invest in these things versus you know smaller you know very small companies it it's it's a it's tough It's very very tough so at this point I'm not terribly worried about some like young upart coming in and taking a massive amount of of Nvidia I'm not really that worried about larger companies larger competitors going in and trying to take a doesn't seem to be impacting them very much right now in conclusion the video highlights nvidia's position within the semiconductor industry especially its role in the growing Ai and Cloud Market despite recent stock fluctuations nvidia's strong Partnerships and leadership in advanced tech make it a focal point in the evolving landscape with upcoming earnings reports anticipated the market is eager to see if Nvidia can sustain demand amidst increased competition and challenges in domestic chip manufacturing additionally capital expenditure in Ai and cloud computing continues to rise reflecting the sector's rapid Evolution and high Computing demand Nvidia remains a key player positioned to benefit as company's race to build Advanced infrastructures the industry's future hinges on balancing Innovation with sustainability and nvidia's moves will be closely watched do you believe Nvidia can maintain its leadership in the AI and cloud computing markets despite Rising competition how do you think increasing domestic manufacturing challenge Alles will impact the semiconductor industry's growth trajectory
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