저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Nvidia는 중국 시장 재개방과 AI 칩 수요로 'pop the champagne' 수준의 긍정적 전환점이 될 것이라 주장. Oracle의 2030년 클라우드 매출 목표 등 AI 인프라 서사가 아직 유효하며, AI 투자 사이클은 중반(middle innings)이고 본격 수익화는 5~10년 남았다고 봄. 하이퍼스케일러 투자가 지속되어 자금이 계속 공급될 것이며, Nvidia·TSMC·Microsoft를 선호함. Oracle에 대해서는 개인적으로 다소 우려하면서도 AI 시장 전반은 낙관함.
다듬은 글
I mean I I believe it will be a pop the champagne moment. I mean because in my opinion it's just going to be another validation moment. You you talk about some of the skepticism. It all comes down to there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and that's the godfather of AI gens and Nvidia and I think that is the best indicator and everything you put together what we see with hyperscalers and overall demand.
You talk about China look they're going to they're now have access to China. They're not giving Huawei 20 billion a year on a silver platter. There's going to be some noise around this, but China is reopened for Nvidia. It's reopened for AMD. And at the end of the day, even if it's a third, fourth best chip.
I can tell you from all the work we do in Asia, they want those Nvidia chips, that continues to be the gold standard rather than, you know, even what you see from Huawei and domestic. It's going to be a pop the champagne moment. I think I mean, I think it's simply going to be another moment of validation.
Some of the skepticism is discussed by you. It ultimately boils down to the fact that the AI revolution is being driven by a single chip and that chip is Nvidia and Jensen, the godfather of AI. And that in my opinion is the best sign. Considering all you mentioned, the hyperscalers and general demand show that they now have access to China.
They are not spoiling Huawei with $20 billion annually. Although there will be some commotion, Nvidia has reopened its account in China. AMD has reopened it. In the end, I can tell you from all the work we do in Asia that they want those Nvidia processors. Even if they are the third or fourth best instead of say what you see from Huawei locally, that remains the gold standard.
Keep it basic and remember that there will always be something that deviates from the norm. Prior to this week, Nvidia experienced four consecutive weeks of downtime. Last week, Google surged to record highs. Broadcom reached unprecedented heights. The Oracle story of course this week. Thus, this has been a narrative.
I have a few techreated remarks to make this week. One was Oracle, which went public in 1986 and added $250 billion to its market capitalization in a single day, which is remarkable for a business of that size. in maturity. That in my opinion indicates that the narrative surrounding AI infrastructure is still relevant today.
We held Communicopia, our premier technology conference. You did indeed. The fact that some of the biggest corporations in the world took the stage and linked AI to income caught my attention. The market is searching for that. Broadcom, Google, and Meta of course stood up and were able to provide that attachment point.
That, in my opinion, is what will keep the market strong. It doesn't give you the opportunity to say, "Well, it better materialize or what was a $100 billion gain for Larry Ellison's net worth might not be as much down the road." When Oracle releases a guide like this, which was, you know, astounding and left analysts speechless when they heard those numbers, how would you respond to that?
Now that these bars are established high, it's definitely in the doing. I accept that. Then regarding returns, efficacy, and utility, Scott, I'm absolutely not intelligent enough to know where the AI tale ends. I'm not sure. To put it simply, I hope I'm wise enough to avoid getting in the way of the revenue freight train at this time.
Furthermore, I believe that all big businesses are still putting a lot of effort into AI and other techreated endeavors. Are we still in the early stages of this AI run and how it will affect the market and economy? in your opinion even though you express your opinions in a favorable manner the truthful response is I don't know hey Tony this is second inning someone will say to me on any given Sunday this is the largest capital misallocation since global crossing you don't believe that this is the eighth inning do you mean I don't of course it's probably the middle inning of course it's not simply an AI narrative once more the general cyclical drive to spend includes the cloud and now There is a physical component to it all.
Since we are up 16 of the best, I assume this is more middle innings. The market will eventually stop rewarding consumers for their expenditures. We're a long way from that point in my opinion. It's a valid issue, I believe, but that will happen when the industry starts to reach its full maturity. Additionally, I believe that full-scale commercialization won't happen for another 5 to 10 years.
In the upcoming earnings calls over the next five or so years, we must hear about how the S&P 500 is utilizing AI to monetize its operations and how it is genuinely improving its top and bottom lines. Therefore, I believe that funds will remain available. Many of the hyperscalers and some of the MAGA 7 businesses investments are heavily focused on artificial intelligence.
I believe that trade still exists and that they will finance the necessary infrastructure development. as we witnessed during the most recent earning season. To answer your question, it might ultimately peak, but I don't believe we're close to that point. We like TSM after Microsoft and Nvidia. These three choices are the ones that our models prefer the most.
And I believe that when you consider that fact, Nvidia still has the demand that we have discussed. This expansion of the data center will continue. That is advantageous to TSM as well. Additionally, Microsoft is still, in my opinion, the industry leader in AI data infrastructure. Please pull out Nvidia.
During Trump's trip to the UK, they will make an announcement. Okay, what's that about? This is what I refer to as technology diplomacy. According to reports, Nvidia and Open IOU, we keep talking about unveiling a multi-billion dollar investment pact in the UK. The CEOs of both companies are also expected to join President Trump during a portion of his upcoming state visit to the UK.
You'll be present. According to reports, the internet giants will collaborate on this initiative with a British data center operator. The UK wants to play a bigger part in the AI race, which is why this is so important. And as Europe imposes strict laws on AI, wouldn't two American corporations that have invested in your businesses have greater political visibility?
You make a valid point. Yes. On Wednesday and Thursday, we'll perform the show from London. And I anticipate seeing a lot of high society, elegant individuals, people. Yes, wealthy people, royalty IT executives, and the US president. We shall see. We shall see. I will simply be present. Alibaba and Buo.
Hold on a second. For AI, they are utilizing their own chips. What? Countries are competing with one another for artificial intelligence. According to the information, BU and Alibaba are training their AI models on their own processors. What happened yesterday? In order to finance its AI initiatives, Alibaba, a significant Chinese e-commerce company, was selling convertible bonds.
AI requires a lot of money and effort. These two Chinese names are supposedly going it alone at this point. However, you simply brought it up. Following the release of its impressive first quarter results earlier this week, Oracle saw its biggest 1-day surge in over three decades. After worries about growth primarily coming from OpenAI surfaced, it returned some of those gains.
given that they are taking advantage of the capacity limits that the hyperscalers themselves are imposing. I would like to know your current thoughts on that name. I believe that these two ideas will be able to coexist in some way. So stay with me. In my opinion, I'm more apprehensive about Oracle and more hopeful about the larger AI market.
And Larry's actions while discussing a very specific 2030 aim of $144 billion in cloud revenue are partly to blame. I've been an analyst and investor for years and I've never heard of a company setting such a clear goal so far out. We often receive guidance for a quarter or occasionally a year. Thus, you must turn it down since they have no idea what will happen that far out.
The street needs to sort of put it in perspective. This is coming from open eye separately. Although I firmly believe that open will do that, there is a chance that it will result in consumer concentration. The oracle news, in my opinion, was crucial because it serves as a reminder of how early we are.
I proposed that we were in the third inning of this a few months ago. We're in the second inning, but I'm now wondering if we're even in the first inning. I now believe we're following the last earnings cycle in June or August. And while that may seem unrealistic, what we witnessed from Oracle just Larry's affirmation of the direction the future is taking was in essence exactly that.
I believe it simply made me take charge and realize that this capital expenditure will be necessary for however you simply brought it up. Following the release of its impressive first quarter results earlier this week, Oracle saw its biggest 1-day surge in over three decades. After worries about growth primarily coming from OpenAI surfaced, it returned some of those gains.
given that they are taking advantage of the capacity limits that the hyperscalers themselves are imposing. I would like to know your current thoughts on that name. I believe that these two ideas will be able to coexist in some way. So stay with me. In my opinion, I'm more apprehensive about Oracle and more hopeful about the larger AI market.
And Larry's actions while discussing a very specific 2030 aim of 144 billion in cloud revenue are partly to blame. I've been an analyst and investor for years, and I've never heard of a company setting such a clear goal so far out. We often receive guidance for a quarter or occasionally a year.
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