저자: Kevin · 외국인
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딥시크 쇼크 이후 AI 투자 심리를 다루며, 소프트뱅크의 오픈AI 투자와 AI 자본지출 둔화 가능성을 언급. 자사주 매입 창구 재개가 시장 지지 요인이라고 봄. 미국 GDP는 AI 지출·이민·정부지출 둔화 위험이 있으나 소비 지출은 강세이고, 유럽은 저축률 상승으로 반등 가능성 제기. 애플은 서비스·기기 실적이 양호해 AI 통합 효과 기대. 기타 항공 사고·구독 쿠폰 등 주제 다수.
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holy smokes what is SoftBank doing with open AI what does this have to do with the whole AI race Nvidia drama Microsoft meta we got to talk about it Apple earnings in new crypto ETFs in we'll talk about those we'll also talk about some potential risk factors as well as what's still going really well in the economy right now let's get started today on January 31st for news that makes new money uh folks a quick reminder it is January 31st which means that trumponomics coupon code is expiring today which means you would save a lot of money if you join today he alpha report will be included for existing stocks and psych members as well if you buy stocks and psych or trumponomics either one work for the alpha report but you'll get course live uh live streams the trade alerts starting Feb one options trading ideas perspectives actual you name it taxes Entre R preneurship sales marketing this is a phenomenal product and the amount of content that's in the course is just getting started so go check it out at me kevin.com email us if you have questions at staff atme kevin.com and for now let's get into the topic of the video all right so with that out of the way the SEC has approved a part of an application for an ETF that would track both Bitcoin and ethereum this is sort of a prediction that I made a couple years ago that in the future we would actually have basket ETFs and they're finally starting uh this is really kind of think about I mean this isn't a big prediction but think about it like a almost like an S&P 500 but of the crypto world where you know you don't have to pick which cryptocurrency you want to invest in you just throw a 100 bucks in and $20 automatically goes to salana and 10 goes to do and 50 goes to bitcoin whatever the allocations are right it's an interesting start and it looks like we'll be starting with Bitcoin and ethereum though there was also a filing for a doge ETF and the more you get those individual ETF filed the more likely it is that you're going to end up getting more of these basket ETFs and then of course you'll end up getting more of the leveraged basket ETFs as well like we have on the triple NASDAQ you end up getting for the Triple cryptos right anyway uh the corporate buyback window is open which is actually kind of bullish for the stock market the corporate buyback window was mostly closed for about the last 3 weeks 28% of the corporate buyback window opened on Monday 45% is open by next Monday and 60% by the end of next week this should lead to about 7 billion a day of buying support so in other words retail has to payer hand to the tune of $7 billion a day just to keep stocks where they are kind of crazy depending on obviously the BuyBacks and where those BuyBacks are let's be real okay there's a company called end phase I don't know if you've ever heard about it you don't need to know about it anyway they buy back stock all the time it doesn't help anyway uh UBS by the way calls the AI selloff this week troubling but contained mostly because they see that it's been contained heavily to uh Nvidia and some of the more uh chip related plays Super Micro arm uh AMD but the broader sectors continue to expand uh in part uh this is likely because what we're seeing uh is this idea that well first of all what SoftBank is doing with open AI but also this idea that hey wait a minute you know AI like what what deep seek innovated is actually good for a whole lot of people think about this for a moment and we talked about this La over the weekend on on Monday as well but who benefits when we end up having deep seek winning and the answer is you do everybody wins right like consumers win startups win small companies that don't yet have the money to pay for big language learning bottles they win there's a lot of winning that goes on frankly when AI costs come down so now what while deep seek is getting investigated over how they potentially got their Hands-On h100 chips through shell companies in Singapore which isn't really that big of a surprise uh what is actually really exciting is hey you've got a lot of people saying just don't worry about it there's plent plenty of opportunity like this isn't the AI bubble popping in fact this could be the unleashing of the beginning of AI because a bunch of new companies can now actually access training compute more affordably now what is interesting is if you look at the Google trends for deep seek some people are saying deep seek might be a flash in the pan and it'll just be a moment of time or a moment in time before you actually end up seeing uh deep seek just gone entirely it's still number one in the App Store but if you look at the Google Trends here deep seek was really only raining Supreme there on about the 26th and 27th uh and it's come down over to where we sit now on January 31st hey that's coupon expiration night uh anyway so uh does this really mean anything for deep seek no not really because it's not so much that we need to use the Deep seek app versus other apps it's the training efficiency that came from it that could end up being sort of a thorn in the side to some of the chip makers that's it but but that is again a benefit to companies like Microsoft and meta and apple apple obviously who just reported earnings uh and other companies who want access to artificial intelligence and quite frankly I don't think the C you know the you know Sun from SoftBank is you know really heavily concerned I mean look at this guy's house this is this guy's house in Japan and uh now they're offering to invest 43 billion do into open AI at a valuation three times as high as what the valuation was uh back in uh 2023 when they first hit the scene there was a valuation estimate of about $105 billion now they're trying to raise money at 300 billion which honestly after the Deep seek moment I would imagine that uh the the valuation would have sunk on open Ai and even anthropic because their ability to raise money has actually gone down and so part of me thinks that SoftBank is just so exposed to AI uh and arm as another beneficiary partnering with open AI right that soft bank which owns a lot of arm basically has to prop up open AI with talk about a big funding round at a huge valuation to prop up all their other stocks call me Jaden but that's just kind of what I think uh now In fairness uh B OFA argues that uh there are this is haret he's actually been pretty dang bullish the last couple years he did give a little bit of a warning though He suggests hey look one of the reasons GDP has outperformed so well over the last 5 years was because of excess government spending High immigration and artificial intelligence capex but all three of those are expected to slow and even if you get more beneficiaries out of the AI efficiency models or strategies for AI efficiency that we can adopt now it's still worth remembering that AI capex is a large contributor to GDP and if we do end up getting downward revisions over time to AI capex at the same time as we get lower immigration or even net negative thanks to deportation and lower government spending due to Doge these are all going to be a drag on GDP and they could end up pushing us into a substantially lower GDP regime but don't worry this is all offset so far by the consumer still spending money like there is no tomorrow and they just have to dump it all Morgan Stanley points out that real consumer spending grows 4.2% above the consensus of a 3.2 % estimate goods and services coming in stronger than expected clothing stronger durable goods stronger although whirpool didn't do so well after earnings real Services spending picked up despite the expectation for a Slowdown even Autos did better after the Hurricanes as people had to go buy new cars now obviously some of that is paid for by the insurance companies it's not necessarily a gauge of of what's going on with the consumer but still uh this is uh this is pretty remarkable okay the amount of spending we got going on in America is wild now something that you ought to pay attention to is saving uh like the savings rate in America especially even like versus Europe see Robo questions hey can this sort of spending keep supporting the economy uh and at least in the United States what you're seeing uh is a savings rate that is actually below before the pandemic levels so in other words people are spending their money at a higher rate today than they were were before the pandemic before the pandemic we were saving like 5 6% of our money now we're saving like 4.8% of our money uh and and when I say five it's probably more like five and a half to 6% there uh maybe even a little higher since this is 5 to 10% you can see it on the chart here uh anyway if you look at Europe Europe actually has a higher savings rate than before the pandemic so they're actually exactly the opposite which is really interesting because if our savings rate is so low and our GDP is so high and Europe's GDP is so low and their savings rate is so high let me make sure I said that right Europe High savings rate low GDP America High GDP low savings rate then it begs the question that could Europe actually see a boost in GDP this year if people start spending we got a little bit of an inflation Point here Robo bank's wondering hey maybe Europe will bottom this year and maybe Europe outperform the US hm interesting so far though there's really no sign that people are going to stop spending money I mean honestly even Apple did better than expected uh Apple intelligence Goldman Sachs says uh and Bank of America I think uh is going to drive upgrades more vertical integration more higher margin remember Apple has like incredible margins on their software like 70% margins whereas on their products they're really only sitting around 35ish per.
Microsoft makes most of their money from from software Apple makes most of their money from products but software makes more money it brings more to the bottom line the good thing for Apple though is despite that iPhone sale slowdown you have an installed base of 2.35 billion people now that keeps going up and yes iPhones went down 8% year-over-year but listen to this iPad up 15.2% Mac up 15.2% services up 13.9% the earnings were actually really good I actually just increased my exposure to Apple a couple days ago and I was talking to Coors members about this as well this is this is kind of exciting uh this this Apple is is a great company and I think they are a huge beneficiary of more efficient AI so that eventually when they get up to scale because they're always they're always slow okay they're always incredibly slow with the artificial intelligence Integrations all right now Apple might soon be able to actually make some more money like oh yeah do you want to Apple Cloud family plan or do you want the Apple Cloud family plan with AI now that might sound cheesy but frankly it's exactly what Microsoft does and it's been pumping their earnings okay so it's just a matter of time until Apple does it as well uh now something else uh to look at is we've got uh the probable impacts of this this sort of maybe more slowdown in artificial intelligence uh for capex uh do watch what happens with the valuations of companies like Claude and open AI because I think those will help you dictate what happens with stocks like arm super micro computer AMD Nvidia because if those valuations and investments in those companies stay high then they might continue to still throw money at capex I'm kind of curious to see if we end up getting drawbacks and capex I think we should know by April if we're getting capex revisions or not from from this sort of AI moment and then this will either Fade Into nothingness or we'll go oh crap yeah no this actually matters data this morning pce and ECI the employment cost index matched honestly there's really nothing to talk about here that matters uh we could really keep this video shorter because there's there's just there's very little to talk to you about today uh so I out of respect for your time we're going to keep it a little simpler uh plane crash update 41 bodies recovered one black box recovered we don't expect to get a black box from the um uh the helicopter so it's the planes black box that was recovered uh and uh Donald Trump used it used this as an opportunity via his press briefing yesterday it was like back to the good old days should I say good old days I guess that that would be a biased way of saying it when I said good old days I really meant that like the past like everybody always refers to the past as oh you know back in the day the good old days anyway uh back in the days when Trump would go in there and just shout at reporters yeah I I thought you'd ask better questions it was like a flashback to co whereas in there in the briefing room just yelling at the reporters and I expect it better from you it's so so entertaining but anyway uh Donald Trump ended up uh um bagging on uh the helicopter suggesting that uh they flew too high they were going in opposite directions mistakes were made and Dei might be to blame at the FAA and he ended up reading a list of initiatives that supported Dei from uh the Biden Administration okay probably a little extreme uh there are reports though at the moment that uh the uh air traffic control tower was potentially under staffed this has been true at every single Air Traffic Control Center in the entire country for a very long time there have been so many Staffing cuts and shortages and I see it I mean I was flying a twin engine yesterday uh and we're in a very busy airspace in Southern California and these folks are overwhelmed I have multiple times been on short final to land and these air traffic control a short final by the way means I'm like close to Landing I'm landing within the next you know 30 45 seconds here uh and then I I I hear uh another plane in front of me get cleared to take off and I'm like bro are you blind like I'm I'm about to be on the runway and you're clearing somebody else to take off in front of me and like I'm a faster plane and you're clearing a Cessna to take off in front of me so I'm like here it comes I'm going to have to go around and then sure enough I'm just going to say Kevin instead of the tail number Kevin go around diver offset to the South and I like back in the pattern anyway so uh that's uh this isn't uncommon now I'm not trying to defend the ATC uh but I am trying to say that I do think they don't have enough funding uh that there aren't enough people and then there's also some drama going on about how oh the air traffic controller was monitoring two channels this is like also not very uncommon like they sit on ground uh and and Tower all the freaking time it's not that big of a deal that part but I do think they're underst staffed uh but anyway it's a tragedy what happened hopefully there are a lot of uh lessons that can be learned from it uh really to me I think uh identifying you know I saw some comments people like oh Kevin you can't ask Air Traffic Control what the tail numbers are airliners are different they don't have tail numbers bro shut up I I float around in the LA The Lax airspace and landed at LAX and I've done the same thing even with lax hey am I tracking this flight like the numbers are right there on your iPad it's not like a looking out of the window looking at the tail number you just look at the iPad okay you want me following this one right a affirmative cool done it's it's so fast to verify which plane you have in sight and if this helicopter simply verified uh yep and you're just verifying you want us to uh F you know keep an eye on flight you know XYZ that we see taking off over there no no no there's another one holy crap one extra sentence would have solved the damn thing on Final and people like oh they don't have the stuff I agree they don't have the staff so what does that mean you just have to space the planes out more hey I guess you're staying the holding pattern a little longer safety is very important I don't I don't think one little confirmation of which plane you're following is is uh that big of a a cost uh and I think the benefit is is very valuable too too many too many near misses and I see it too like the amount of traffic congestion you get to these airports it's crazy uh Daily Wealth topic today goals and deadlines are meant to be set but they're also meant to be missed uh that might sound crazy but consider this uh if we said I'll be able to score a 150 in Bowling now or or by July 4th when would you start bowling the answer is you'd probably start bowling now uh but if you said one day in my life I'm going to score 150 bowling when are you actually going to start probably not for years and it'll take you like 20 years to score that 150 it's kind of sad but if you said I will bow 150 now you would start now and the point is even if it took you until September instead of your July goal to Bull it at 150 at least you're making progress so if there's something you want to get done in your life you want to work on that six-pack you want to get better at bulling you want to be a better golfer you want to be a better YouTuber or person you know worker whatever it is that you're doing start now and go to meet kevin.com and get that coupon code expiring tonight see y'all
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