저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인플레이션 전망이 당초 예상(2021년 3월 상승, 가을 하락)과 달리 공급망 문제와 임대료·서비스 상승으로 더 길게 지속될 것으로 수정됨. 델타 변이는 단기 디플레이션 후 중장기 인플레이션을 키울 수 있어 불확실성이 큼. 주식은 펀더멘털 바닥(bedrock)까지 더 내려갈 수 있다고 보고 현재 저점 매수를 주저함. 대신 옵션 매도(콜·풋)로 내재변동성(IV) 하락을 활용 중이며, 장기적으로는 좋아하는 기업을 보유하는 것이 궁극적 답이라고 함.
다듬은 글
go through the truth about why i'm not buying stocks right now and my thoughts on inflation and how my thoughts have changed over time some folks very few who maybe aren't really clear on following nuance think that i have flip-flopped in my opinions on inflation and in this video i want to provide that nuance and some graphical depictions of sort of what's going on in my mind as it relates to inflation and then potential stock strategies which we'll talk about towards the end of the video and i think the easiest way to do this which we talked briefly about this morning in the course member live stream which which sort of spawned the idea of ah you know we should make a broader video on this i'm gonna do things like this pretty regularly which of course there's an amazing coupon code linked down below for you to join in those uh course member live streams but anyway uh it i i thought you know what why not make a broader video just sort of clearing the air about this let's get this out so the easiest thing to really do is uh take just a blank sheet here and what we've got is sort of this this continuum right so we've got uh november of 2020 right here uh feb march july here's that september to october kevin keeps talking about in the november plus right and what we're going to do is we're going to kind of draw on here what i expected in terms of inflation what has actually happened what kind of projections we're looking at now and how delta can screw everything up and it's worth seeing this graphically because graphically it helps us understand where the pain is in the market and potentially how it could change going forward and maybe that could guide us in some of our investing decisions so let's go ahead and draw this so first if you go back and watch my videos in november of 2020 what you'll find is that i expected inflation or the market's inflation expectations to really start going up in march of 2021 and this really sets our baseline we knew this was going to happen because we were going to be hitting those year-over-year numbers uh comparing march of 2021 all the way back to march of 2020 itself or april figures to april of 2020 and there was a big hole in in inflationary readings right this is what the graph looks like so when you compare back to the hole obviously you you have larger inflationary readings so the expectation which we knew this was coming the expectation was that we were going to have this relatively low inflation some sort of explosion in inflation here and then we would begin to see a flattening and then come september and october we would see a sharper kind of inflection point to the downside and then maybe this sort of leveling off this is roughly what my expectation was for inflation now let's draw a reality which it's always good to do expectation versus reality and then see the difference so the first thing because it also helps us learn for the future in terms of how our expectations might be modified for the future and i think graphically this is the best way to do it so what actually happened was we we had this low inflation but all of a sudden in february we had a freak out about inflation so we really saw this inflation come in much sooner or concerns about inflation come in much sooner than expected and unfortunately higher than expected for longer than expected and so this is kind of where we are now this is this is what we felt uh and so this morning when we talked about this a bit in the course member live stream i really called this extra increase right here inflation fat right like this extra inflation these extra supply chain issues uh the the inflation that's larger than expected and longer than expected is really represented by this orange here so you can see like trajectory wise it doesn't make sense when people say oh somebody's flip-flopping on their opinions on inflation they're just modifications like a flip-flop would be like you think inflation's high and then the next day you think it's going to be low right it doesn't make any sense at all that's illogical it's illogical when people say that unfortunately just a small minority folks but it's important to realize that modifications and inflections in the market are things that we could study to try to understand how do we want to invest going forward so what what is the current sort of projection so the current projection going forward is also slightly different and that is that we do expect there to be an inflection point but we've kind of softened how quickly we think that inflection point will happen and uh how how low that inflation will go so this dotted line here i'm going to call the the projected line right so we'll just say dotted line here is projected and so what you can see is this really builds in not only more inflation here but it also builds in more inflation here we still have a downward inflection that we're expecting for inflation but it's not as much of a downward inflation inflection as as we're hoping for which one of the reasons i bought a lot of call options back in may was because i believed when we would see this substantial plummet here like this sudden rotation down in inflation that we would potentially see a euphoric rally in the stock market because the stock market would go whoa we were not ex like whoa we knew high inflation was was here but we were not expecting it to disappear that fast but now that that potential of it just inflecting down quickly is softened by the supply chain shortages that are continuing and the potential for rents to go up and services to go up now they didn't go up as much as expected in the last reading but still we're expecting inflation to be a longer run issue than expected and so these this is a change in expectations uh and uh unfortunately that means in my opinion there might be less of a of a rally when inflation doesn't fly downward but now here's where things get fun uh so the fun part here is when we try to include delta in this okay so delta screws all of this up even more so ironically i mean let's think for a moment what happened with covid with kovid people spent less money sales went down which is funny because or maybe not funny but it's like that's what's kind of happening right now right sales went down so sales went uh down with covet sales are going down now we're seeing retail sales slow we're seeing this inflection point in people spending less money compared to where they were spending more money because they were propped up by stimulus money right which we don't have anymore the odds of a fourth stimulus check are pretty elusive right now excuse me but anyway here's what delta could do delta could come in here and create a pause in spending while creating a pause and spending we would expect supply chain shortages to actually worsen as china shuts down ports because they're freaking out about covet or whatever because that's what china does that'll worsen our supply chain issues which actually prolongs inflation in the long term but in the short term we actually potentially draw this as this potential delta dotted line here we potentially actually suffer more deflation in the short term but then when we come back out of delta whenever that is we have no idea when we'll come out of delta but whenever we come out of delta it's possible that we end up with higher inflation than we would have had it not been for delta so this creates like this this is why there's so much uncertainty in the freaking market right now because look if we were going to follow the red line and inflation was going to plummet and we would well then in that case we would stick with the the basically the original idea which was okay well if inflation plummets then the odds are we would see a rotation back to high value in tech and people would be very excited about going back to high value in tech because they're looking for yield well now with the current projected green line we have more inflation for longer so you have the market a little bit more mixed the market's kind of like ah i don't i don't really know where to go i don't really know where to go like i don't really want to go into high yield or high tech yet because what if all of a sudden we do have more inflation right which which we expect to have more inflation so you kind of have this hesitancy in the market then you have delta which is putting a lid on top of recovery stocks but also creating the fears that we could have temporary deflation but then worse inflation as we come out of it potentially leading the fed to have to raise rates sooner right so you've got these really bizarre scenarios where right now the market just feels like there's no right answer right now i mean there's always buy and huddle i mean that's easy that sure but if you if you're buying hodler you might not even be watching this video but if you're trying to find the strategy in the market this this is very complicated because if you get a temporary collapse in inflation because delta all of a sudden is getting worse well then that changes that that's going to hurt recovery stocks that potentially is going to lead people to flee to safety but maybe it's not going to be zoom and peloton maybe it's going to be modern on apple this time which which is kind of the trend that we've been seeing is the safer high cash plays or plays that directly benefit from these booster shots and potentially fda approval right but again recovery would get smashed during this time and we'd hit some new lows which maybe would create by the dip opportunity for a higher inflation time of people spending money again after we get out of delta but we wouldn't necessarily have stimulus over here to help prop up those recovery plays so it you know there's a big question there then uh the other option would be is if if delta's a non-issue well if without delta being uh or hold on let's see here uh bullard u.s had an inflationary shock that is large and which the fed needs to take into account in calibrating 2022 policy well yeah i mean that's that's essentially uh this sorry i just saw that alert come through but anyway so the that's one scenario is delta pain the other scenario is we just have higher inflation for longer and we end up having this sideways trading market where we're just tentative like okay maybe delta's not that bad okay maybe inflation's not that bad but it's still elevated okay maybe things just aren't that bad but they're also not that great or that euphoric year-over-year comps potentially start coming in negative because we had such a great 2021 and so maybe that means the entire market just trades sideways or or even just slightly bleeds down a little bit as the market tries to get back to stable foundation i made this analogy yesterday which i think is very useful in on our podcast millennial money and uh the analogy i made was let's let's say you have uh you have a house okay so so here's here's your house see here's your door and everything great uh in in real estate you can build a house on a cut lot or a fill lot well let's say your your cut lot is uh bedrock right here right this all this is bedrock uh and uh this is this is sort of your your foundation and let this represent the true fundamental value of stocks that we're investing in right now the question is how high off the bedrock is our house of cards or how high are our stocks off the ground right now in other words how much quicksand are we sitting on you know if this is all quicksand then really this is just fugazi printed money that's propping up stock valuations and it's possible that the house actually has to trend down to bedrock before we can really inflect up again right get back to fundamental value and then let true earnings carry the properties up this is why people are like oh kevin look we dipped to here or we dipped to here we should go buy it and right now i'm just like i'm not that confident that we've hit a bedrock yet uh and and when you combine that with this uncertainty of of look i mean i can i can project these things out right i could project out okay if we have delta do this if we don't have delta do this that's fine in both scenarios i ultimately want to own the shares so the ultimate answer is is owning owning quantity of companies that we like and believe in the long term that's the ultimate answer and now it's just a matter of well can we time it to a better bottom uh you know or or can we get in before a euphoric rally if inflation reflects downward strong that's hard we don't know and so that's where the uncertainty is and that's why i think we have this bizarro market right now and why everybody thinks the market is weird and why one day a stock like palantir is down 10 and the next day it's up 7 i don't know but anyway this this bedrock analogy here especially after a season of spec ipos and ipos it's somewhat in my opinion something to pay attention to it's easier it's easy for us to look at like cheesecake stock and go oh but hear me here let's pull it up uh oh but kevin you know cheesecake stock it's so much cheaper now than it was before so you go to cheesecake and you're like yeah it was 65 but what if this is all quicksand what if what if the true value of cheesecake stock is 35 and we actually still have room to go down right so uh that is that is the struggle of the market right now uh and and hopefully this adds some clarity uh as to why is kevin not buying the dip why am i selling contracts more because here's another thing that happens in both scenarios and this is really important to know in both scenarios us going to bedrock and stocks and in either going through delta or having inflation reflect downwards guess what happens in both scenarios in both scenarios iv goes down this is known in options as an iv crush uh not crash it's crush crush uh and and when iv or implied volatility goes down options premiums tend to go down tend to there are a lot of things that go into options pricing and that hurts bot call options or bought put options this is one of the reasons i've been selling calls and selling puts like crazy because i capitalize on that that implied volatility going down i capitalize while the market tries to figure out what the heck is going on i capitalize on that transition of iv plummeting that's why i'm selling so many calls and selling something puts right now uh while i wait for more answers so hopefully this had some clarity i appreciate y'all thank you so much for being here watching this i know this was a little bit more of a nuanced video thank you so much for being here we'll see you next time bye
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