저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 다우 급락은 AI 투자 우려·국채금리 상승·유가 급등이 겹친 리스크 오프로 보며, Tom Lee는 이를 AI 거품 해소 과정의 건강한 조정으로 보고 장기적으로 낙관적이라는 입장이다. 시장 흐름: 금요일 다우는 653포인트(약 1.2%) 하락해 주요 지수 중 낙폭이 가장 컸고, S&P500은 약 -0.5%, 나스닥은 약 -0.2%를 기록했다. 섹터 흐름: 고기술주 매도가 필수소비재·유틸리티·헬스케어 등 방어주로 번져 자금 이동의 피난처가 사라졌다는 점이 특징으로 지적됐다. 아메리칸익스프레스는 3% 이상 하락했고, AI 대비 약 5% 인력 감축 계획이 함께 거론됐다. 반등 종목: 일부 고기술·AMD, 마이크론 등 반도체 종목은 전일 낙폭 이후 2~3%대 반등했다. 금리·유가 리스크: 미 10년물 금리는 4.999%로 약 5%에 근접했고, 하루 4bp 상승했다. 브렌트유는 116.72달러로 4월 이후 최고 수준이며, 고유가와 고금리가 인플레 재가속 및 연준 금리 인하 지연 우려로 이어진다고 설명됐다. 지정학 리스크: 미국·이스라엘의 대이란 공격 계획 보도로 중동 긴장이 재부각됐고, 공급망 불안과 인플레 우려를 키우는 요인으로 꼽혔다. Tom Lee 견해: 이번 하락은 AI 투자 과열을 식히는 건강한 조정이며, AI 기술 발전 자체가 끝난 것은 아니라고 봤다. 향후 수년간 AI 인프라 투자 규모를 최대 30조 달러로 제시했고, 자금 조달 경쟁이 과잉투자를 억제할 것이라고 주장했다. 다만 30조 달러는 전망치이며, 가구 이자소득 7조 달러 비교 등은 산출 근거가 불명확하다. 투자 관점: 수익성 있는 기업만 선별될 것이며, 향후 핵심 체크포인트는 매출 성장의 AI 수요 전환, 설비투자 확대 속 마진 유지, 잉여현금흐름, 자금 조달 능력 4가지다. 결론적으로 영상은 AI 관련주의 중장기 강세를 긍정하지만, 단기적으로는 금리·유가·지정학 변수에 따른 변동성 확대를 경계하는 내용이다.
다듬은 글
good morning. This is GM in column M. We're now looking forward to Saturday, October 24th. Here is the live update from CNBC. The oil prices in the Land Market of H are down 600 points, which unfortunately means that prices have fallen in most sectors . The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also fallen by more than 600 points .
Yes, there is definitely oil price. Since crude oil prices have risen, let's take a look at the details . In the second half of the video, we'll be analyzing Tom Lee's latest insights . And what's more, we'll be looking at the views of our usual analysts, so I hope you'll watch until the very end today.
And now, I'd like to make a quick announcement. On Saturday, November 21st, about a month from now, I will be giving an online Zoom presentation at Sun Securities, where I'll be sharing my outlook on potential US stocks and my outlook on soba noodles. I'll also put a link in the description box, so please feel free to join us if you're interested .
Of course, participation is free, so we would really appreciate your participation . So, first of all, the New York Dow Jones is down 653 dollars, so what exactly happened? Well, the main issue is the high price of crude oil . From there, concerns about AI investment spread throughout the entire market , and as the title suggests, this stock has fallen by more than 600 points.
First of all, the sector is expanding, which means almost all sectors. Well, it's called the Himoth Sectors. Most sectors saw negative gains, or rather, declines, indicating that the selling of high-tech stocks from the previous day has spread to other sectors. And the cause has now surpassed $100. And here's the geological risk: US crude oil prices have surpassed $100 per rupee.
With concerns rising about a potential resurgence of military conflict between the US and Iran , unfortunately, all stocks have fallen, and selling pressure has spread not only to high-tech stocks but to the entire market . So, as you can see from the main arithmetic, there is the three major stocks indexes in price session with loss.
Well, there's this low, so the market just kept going down until the end of trading. The New York Dow Jones was down 1.2%, the biggest drop this time, while the Sapiens 500 was down a little over -0.52% . So, the NSA's decline was relatively small, at -0.21%. Well, what's noteworthy is that the decline in New York's stock market was greater than that of NASA on that day .
So , the selling pressure spread to defensive stocks . Normally, when High Tech stocks are sold off, funds tend to move into stable stocks, but Friday was different. Life, essential goods, and utilities, businesses, and healthcare have all been down, and these are generally referred to as defensive sectors .
This time, selling pressure spread from high-tech stocks to stocks that are considered a safe haven for diverted funds. Well, the main point is that this isn't simply a correction in the high-teva market , but rather that investors' risk aversion is beginning to spread throughout the entire market .
American Express fell by more than 3%, and it was one of the main stocks that dragged down the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average . Assu here, American Express is down over 3%. And Kitapira fell by about 2%. Well, Goldman Sachs is down more than 1%, and American Express has announced it will cut about 5% of its global workforce.
The reason given was, of course, to prepare for AI , hence the name "prepare for AI," which means that in order to prepare for the AI era, people will no longer be needed . So, I think this trend will come to Japan more and more, so I'm also quickly using my funds to build up my assets before I get cut off .
Encounters not only promote corporate growth but also lead to structural changes that improve operational efficiency . AI is not only a theme in the stock market , but it's also influencing corporate staffing , which means I have to consider the possibility that I might lose my job someday. Well, it's also part of the era .
It's truly "prepare for AI." I myself am also preparing for AI so that I'll be ready even if my job disappears. Meanwhile, while the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply due to a rebound in reaction stocks, some high-tech stocks saw buying activity . Well , this one, I think there might be a slight rebound after the drop yesterday, and it's up about 3% on the micro.
AMD, specifically Advanced Micro Devices, saw an increase of approximately 2%. Microsoft's stock price rose , and so did Chips' searchmicron technology and advance microdevices, which is made a stronger movement. Micron and other companies showed a stronger rise . Well, some of the dividend stocks that were sold the previous day were bought back.
I think this is the biggest reason. It fell too much the day before , so I guess it's time for some buying back. Stocks related to reactionary forces are doing exceptionally well. The Nasdaq 's decline has been relatively small compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average , which means that the overall market isn't being sold off in one direction .
So, here's the limit on fund transfers that fund managers have pointed out. So, for the last weeks investors have been splitting from text and datacenter beneficiary stocks to safestaff, right? This has been especially true for the past two weeks. Well, investors have already started rapidly shifting their funds from tech stocks and data center-related stocks to stocks they consider safe .
I thought the features were particularly impressive. It's exactly like splinting from technology and datacenter beneficiarysttosafe staff. This character is called Heaven, and he can play the role of a safe place, like heaven, but not a safe heaven. Rather, it's more like going to a safe place , a safe sector .
So, basically, I shifted my holdings towards stocks that I considered safe . And one more thing , eventually year-long runout of the people willing to do that split, so, well, if eventually there are no more investors willing to continue that level of funding, then the runout of people will be gone .
Over the past two weeks, there has been a shift of funds from dividend-paying stocks to defensive stocks, and it's possible that the initial buying of stocks considered safe has run its course . On Friday, even stocks that had previously been a target for investment were sold off. In other words, this suggests that there are limits to the shift of funds into defensive stocks .
As I mentioned in my blog earlier, the calculations for companies seeking investment are actually doing well, but it's worth noting the difference between investor sentiment and corporate performance. Emotion and fear play a very significant role in the market, as seen in the phrase "Emotion and fear are playing really big glory ." This is the Playbigl site .
Really, well, they play a big role , but we have got few companies latest financial and their earnings out good , however, several dividend companies have already announced their latest earnings for the current period. And their performance was indeed very good. It was good. The result has been good, right?
Earnings result, well, it means the company's performance was good. Well, the performance is based on a health assessment that does not include calculations for health and well-being. It was a sell-off driven by anxiety, or rather, anxiety-driven selling , and even so, stock prices are being sold due to investors' anxiety .
This is related to market sentiment , meaning there is a disconnect between the performance of AI-related companies and market sentiment and expectations. The focus going forward will be on whether the strength of the earnings report can overcome investors' fears . So , with the US 10th anniversary of profit-taking just around the corner, the current rate is at 4.999% as of when I took this photo, which is almost exactly 5%.
Well, the previous day's expenses were up by more than 4 base points, so The10 yearTreasuryEwas allowed 4.999, which is up 4 base points on the day . Well, the reason why this is important is self-evident: rising long-term interest rates affect the cost of consumer financing for businesses. Concerns about large-scale corporate investments continue.
Building an AI data center will definitely require a staggering amount of capital investment . Furthermore, rising interest rates can create headwinds for growth stock valuations, and the question is beginning to be raised not only about expectations for AI investments, but also about how to raise the necessary funds .
And that was a bad idea. Crude oil prices are rising sharply, causing the Wt value to break above $103 . The price of the blend has also gone up a lot, to $116.72 . BrandC price low 3.1% to end the session at 116.72 for the highest price since April. This is the highest price, which is not good. It's unfortunate that the levels have risen to their highest point since April .
With Brent and other WTAs rising just like this, well , the impact of high oil prices on the stock market is that companies' transportation and production costs will increase. Here , concerns inevitably arise about the re-acceleration of inflation . And this could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates .
This also negatively impacts the consumer's gradient power . The key point is that the combination of high crude oil prices and high gold prices is putting double pressure on the US wall, a double punch . That's what's coming up. So, with the US-Iran situation once again becoming a money issue, I thought they were going to stop the pro wrestling match, right?
They said they'd keep things quiet until the midterm elections, but then they said something like this, or rather, this kind of report came out. Well, the reason for the recent rise in crude oil prices is concerns about the worsening situation in the Middle East . According to reports, the US and Israel may be considering a new attack plan against Iran .
In response, Iran has warned that it is already prepared to retaliate . It seems like they're going to have another pro wrestling match, and the US and ISR may be drawing up a plan for a new attack . Well, if military activity in the Middle East intensifies again, concerns about supply chains will drive up prices further, leading to increased inflation concerns and a broader impact on interest rates and stock prices .
We're asking you to behave yourselves, but please remember that this is still just a plan. The attack plan is based on news reports and does not mean that it has been decided to be carried out. But since the news has been reported , well, this will definitely have a negative impact on market sentiment, it's not good .
That's how it goes . So, the New York Dow Jones closed higher this week, and despite Friday's sharp decline, there was a noticeable difference in performance throughout the week. Well, the New York Dow managed to close in positive territory, but the S&B 500 fell by -0.5% and -0.7% respectively over the past week.
Well, it's heavy, so I don't get the impression that it's been lowered that much . Looking at it over the past week, I thought it would have dropped more, but it wasn't really . Well, it will look something like this . The SNP for FeL increased by 0.4% in the week, and the NASA shed 0.7%. The D increased by 0.4 % in the period.
"D" means "in this past week." From October 19th to 23rd, well, it's now US time, and trading for the 23rd has just finished, but this is how it looks . The New York market fell sharply on Friday, but still managed to finish the week with a positive performance of 3, the weakest performance among the market, and amidst AI caution, there was clear movement of funds within the market .
And Edoyaru Denishi 's comment, which actually came out yesterday night, says that adjusting the AI bubble is actually a good thing, and this actually connects to the latter part of Tom Lee's story, but first Edoyaru Denishi says that taking some air out of the air bubble is good . It's a good idea to let out some air from the AIbuble.
So, I don't think kit's going to burststand create problems for the economy, which means he does n't think AIbuab will collapse and cause problems for the entire economy . Since "I don't think" follows this sentence , it becomes a negative sentence . So, I don't think that will lead to a birth, that is, a collapse or any problems, or economic problems .
So, regarding the overheating of AI-related stocks, well, excessive expectations have been factored into AI stocks , and some adjustment is necessary. This is a healthy adjustment to the stock market situation, and the stabilization of overheated stock prices could be positive for the market in the long term .
Edyarde, while acknowledging concerns about an AI bubble, doesn't believe that the law will cause the entire US economy to fall into serious trouble, as he doesn't think it will develop into an economic machine . The important point is that the correction in AI-related stock prices and the end of growth in the AI industry itself are separate issues.
I think this is really a great thing to say. Just let out a little air. Uh, taking some air out of the air is a good thing. That leads to the conclusion that it's a good thing . Well, anyway, I want to believe these words , and Tom Lee says the same thing . I hope you'll take a look at it later . First, let's look at the US stock market.
This is it. What are they wary of now? Well, there are roughly four main reasons: concerns about AI pitchers, a ripple effect of selling on defensive stocks, a sharp rise in US long-term gold prices, and so on. What's noteworthy is that while the earnings reports from major AI-related companies are good, the risk of interest rates, oil prices, and intelligence-related costs is clearly putting pressure on stock prices .
The risk associated with interest rates and crude oil prices shows no signs of subsiding . However, some of AMD's rebound stocks have risen today, so it seems that the stock downgrade hasn't been completely lost . Well, the key question for next week and beyond will be whether the high computing power of AI companies will improve market sentiment , or whether the shift to oil and rising interest rates will further weigh on stock prices .
I think we'll continue to keep an eye on the earnings reports of AI-related companies and other major stock brokerage firms . So, I've put together the first half of the " Fierce Newspaper" for now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has plummeted by 653 points, which means there are various risks involved .
Well, keeping these points in mind, I hope you'll continue on into the second half of the season. Well, some are going up , and some are going down, so that's why broadly diversified ETFs and mutual funds are probably a good idea . So, what are your thoughts, everyone ? Now, let's move on to the second half .
Now , let's delve into Tom Lee's latest views. Scott, our usual host, asked a very insightful question. This is an NSE session featuring Rose, and it was filmed yesterday at the location where the last-minute performance took place. So, first up, NASA Kyuraku . This happened yesterday, but with concerns about an AI bubble spreading in the market, some people were wondering why Tom Leesi was still bullish.
Nastack, on the other hand, fell sharply yesterday , putting selling pressure on tech stocks . And, well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by more than 6% from its all-time high this month . And, well, the astonishing investment in AI and concerns about fundraising are putting pressure on stock prices.
So, Mr. Tom Lee sees this downturn as an investment opportunity, and the biggest question in the market is whether the AI bubble has started to burst, which is something that's really on everyone's mind . Up until now, everyone's been saying this is an AI bubble, an AI bubble, and now the question is whether it's finally going to burst.
Well, the ups and downs have been pretty wild, 2026 has been a very volatile year, but I'm still curious to see if it's going to burst or not . Then, the host, Scott, asks Tom Lee a sharp question. You're saying that concerns about AI are preventing an AI bubble, right? The host then asks whether the very concerns about AI are actually starting to burst the bubble that has already formed .
In other words, even though the stock price decline is the same, the interpretation is completely opposite, and from one perspective, this could be the beginning of the AI bubble's collapse. However, from Tom Lee's perspective, this is a healthy adjustment and part of long-term growth . Well, that's why I'm not too worried about Tom Lee.
So, the concern about AI is, well, healthy, at least I'm going to say AI is preventing a bubble that wears continuing to see a stun and this coverage made by AI . It's the part that says "wearecontinueto see". I'm still watching it , or rather, I'm still making discoveries . That's the " G" part. The phrase "ASTING discover" indicates that amazing discoveries are still being made, and since it says "made by AI," it means that AI technology is not yet finished.
The practical application and productivity of AI are still in the developmental stages. Investors being aware of risk helps to curb excessive investment . Tom Lee argues that just because stock prices are correcting doesn't mean that the growth of AI itself is over . Therefore, the AI revolution is still in its early stages, and at the same time, it is clear that AI research and development is currently progressing rapidly .
For example, it also mentions the achievements in the field of mathematics by OpenAI. So, this is not the end of the AI discovery and productivity boost cycle . So, since this isn't the end of the cycle , nor is it the late cycle, or the maturity stage , I think there are still many discoveries to be made by AI.
The point to note is that, as long as AI technology continues to develop, it's too early to judge the current capital investment as simply overinvestment . So, the risk management of AI investments is preventing a bullish trend, and it's actually really healthy that dead markets are selling or prepending along a long way speculative boom in AI .
So, Tom Lee's logic is as follows: AI companies need money to extort . And from there, in the credit market , they're not supplying unlimited funds . Therefore, the investment rate comes into play due to constraints on fundraising. As a result, the risk of an extreme AI bubble forming is reduced. In other words, Tom Lee is saying that this is not the end of the stock market decline revolution .
So, the investment amount for AI is projected to be 3 trillion to 30 trillion over the next 25 years , which is another enormous figure. According to the analysis by Funslat that Tori introduced, the projected investment in AI-related fields over the next 25 years is 30 trillion, on an annual basis.
On an annual basis, a simple average would mean we have to invest about 1.2 trillion per year, and a report published a few weeks ago showed that it is going to spend 30 trillion over the next 25 years in the AI field . The 30 trillion mentioned here is, well, a projected value, and the actual expenditure is not yet confirmed.
So, regarding how to raise $30 trillion in scholarship funds, the host's concern is the possibility of insufficient investment in AI . However, they cite the interest income of U.S. households as an example to argue that there is sufficient capacity to supply funds . This means that there is actually plenty of potential investment available .
It might be a good idea to remember the word "plenty" as well . This means there is a large quantity or plenty. So, in terms of investment , they have plenty of usable Arab capital that can be used for investment . The figure Tom Lee presented was that the combined interest income of US households is approximately 7 trillion.
However, the exact date and calculation method for this figure of 7 trillion cannot be confirmed solely from the interview provided. It's also important to note that household interest income doesn't necessarily go directly into AI investments . Therefore, since AI investment is comparable to mobile phone and road construction , Tomioka AI's investment in education is being compared to past infrastructure development projects .
So, in the infrastructure sector, AI is projected to reach $30 trillion over the next 25 years, mobile communications will reach approximately $25 trillion, and road infrastructure will reach approximately $25 trillion. This suggests that AI could be a more important infrastructure development project than mobile phones.
Looking at the numbers , mobile communications is a whopping $5 trillion larger , so it remains to be seen whether this will be possible . So, this comparison is by Tom Leesi and may not necessarily be a comparison of investment amounts with the same period and calculation method , so that's something to be aware of .
So, Tom said that there isn't too much investment in AI right now, so he said, "I do n't think there's too much money being poured into AI today." "I don't think" means "I do n't think so." AI is an ally of doctors and is not just a temporary fad, but a technological foundation that will transform society as a whole.
Oh, I'm sorry. It's a fundamental technology. Therefore, our position is that we should not evaluate the scale of an investment based solely on short-term gains . Well, one point for investors to keep in mind is that the existence of long-term demand and the fact that investments in individual companies will generate sufficient profits are two separate issues .
So, the host, uh, Scott , asked the expert in charge whether he would buy the stock at the current price, and he asked the expert along with the host. The question is, "Would you buy yourself yet?" So, are you going to start buying the stock price now ? Mr. Tori's answer is clear: Yes. I think we aren't earthly stages of ourselves.
Yes, I think the main selling point this time is that we're nearing the end of the lesson . So, that means I'll buy it here. Yes. So, Tom Lee, this decline is not the start of a long-term moderate market phase , but rather an indication that we are approaching it . Well, they're saying it's near the end stage, after all .
And since it says "of the," it means that the selling phase is nearing its end. So, why is the selling trend nearing its end? Well, what I'm focusing on is the positions of market participants . It's become consensus that high- tech strategies will be a sure thing, and this has become a common understanding in the market .
So, many investors here are weak on high-tech stocks, and there's a possibility that a lot of short positions have piled up, which has made market sentiment extremely pessimistic. Therefore, if any positive news comes out, the short covering could accelerate the rebound in stock prices . Therefore, they believe that the mere increase in the number of weaker players on the Tomuri group could be a condition for a backlash.
Tom Rishi points out that the two reverse factors that have been weighing on stock prices are changing, indicating that the financial environment that has been pressuring the stock market is beginning to improve . The Fed is quite high, as it's currently flipping potential. Right now , we have this "now".
There is now a possibility that the situation will shift in a negative direction . Since it's FLPingpoentti , well, it's a possibility. Potential Dobishi . Well, I might lean towards the dove side . So, the opposite of what has happened so far is that the Fed has been selling off A-related stocks as interest rates rise .
Tom Lee points out that one of the changes is a decline in the expected return on investment. So, it's possible that the selling pressure was concentrated at a corner, and in the interview, they also mentioned that interest rates, which were approaching 5%, had indeed fallen below 5% . Oh, sorry about today .
In yesterday's video, I mentioned that interest rates have calmed down a bit and fallen below 5%, but the important thing is that the headwind for stocks, which is rising interest rates, is weakening . And of course, Tom Lee, uh, this guy here , doesn't think the risks have disappeared . The remaining risk is, after all, war with the credit market.
The only thing you have now is death markets are kind of closed at the moment and of course the uncertainty about the world. So, the problem that remains now is that the credit market is effectively closed . It's kind of cuse . Well, it's closed. And of course there are certainties surrounding the war, which is this uncertainty.
There's something called " about the world." So, there's still uncertainty regarding the war . The remaining two concerns are, of course, the decline in the functioning of the credit market and the resulting difficulties in corporate fundraising . Furthermore, diving is associated with a deterioration of investment psychology due to intellectual risk.
So, these are the two main concerns. In particular, a worsening funding environment could impact capital investment plans for AI salaries . So, regarding where we will invest , the moderator, Scott, asks us specifically which sectors we will buy into. What we are focusing on is a key area that supports the growth of the AI industry.
I think the bottlenecks are memories and the Nvidia and the MAG7, which are bottlenecks in the AI field, so I'm paying attention to Nvidia and the MAG7. Well, just because Torisan says this is the right place doesn't mean you have to change it, so please only use this as a reference. I believe the final decision is up to each individual, so this is merely Tom Lee's opinion.
And as a field to watch, NBIAAI Hand is a core company, and so is Gana. Furthermore, DramHBM and other memory-related companies will become major high-tech companies that lead the supply of memory necessary for AI pioneers and the development of Magnificent 7 AI investment technology . So, after this, I'd like to do a little more about meter calculations, which I also did a bit of in yesterday's video, so I hope you'll watch until the very end .
Therefore, I believe that one of the reasons these stocks are being sold is that they are prone to being unprofitable . So, regarding memory NBD large-cap high-tech stocks, I think there are bottoming out, and I believe these stocks are starting to bottom out. So it's bottoming, then. Memory- related stocks are being heavily sold off.
Selling pressure is also being exerted on large-cap AI stocks such as NDIA. Concerns about the credit market are weighing on stock prices. Even so, I predict that the bottom is near for Tom Lee AI-related stocks. This is Tom Lee's market forecast , and does not mean that an actual bottom has been confirmed .
And it's not just AI ; software, cryptocurrencies, and financial stocks are also strong, so Torishi's bullish stance isn't limited to AI reactionaries. But I also like software and I like crypto to hear , so I like software stocks and at this level I'm also attracted to crypto assets, although I don't own any crypto myself, so what do you think?
Furthermore, they are also paying attention to financial stocks, indicating a broad evaluation of investment targets. Ah, this one , in terms of field, is AI reaction memory . Well, the reasoning behind the bullish stance is that it's probably oversold. We can expect good things from there too. And then there's the Mag 7.
The rise in AI is driven by core companies, software , investment opportunities after stock price corrections, and expectations of a recovery in cryptocurrencies and risk assets as a whole. Therefore, a broad rebound is anticipated not just in AI stocks, but across a wide range of assets, including cyclical investments.
So, the market is like a compressed spring, and this cost, in particular, is what made this statement so striking. This is what I mean by " I bear a coil strength splicing because the fundamentals have been holding in ." I see the current market as very strong, like a compressed spring that has accumulated a lot of energy .
Because fundamentals have been holdings, meaning they possess the necessary skills . Well, although the stock price has corrected significantly, the company's fundamental earning power and financial foundations remain intact. This perspective suggests that if financial conditions improve, the market could be contained, potentially leading to a significant rebound in stock prices .
So, this is called an acstring spring. Basically, it's like a compressed spring that has stored up a lot of energy . So, what does the crash of reaction stocks mean? Scott from the news industry focuses on the sharp decline in ETFs related to reaction stocks like Dram. The reaction force was intensely driven by selling pressure.
The decline in stock prices is particularly noticeable among memory-related stocks. So , is there a possibility that the decline will continue for the next few weeks or months? The host, Scott, then raised the question of what the way the chart has broken suggests about the future of the market . So, to remind you of Tom Leesi's 1997 stock market , I compared it to the current AI stock market in 1997, specifically the Internet ULAN cold alliance machine .
Keep in mind that in 1997, Cisco had a massive 50% drawdown. So, please remember 1997 . This story takes place one year before Daisuke Matsuzaka achieved back-to-back spring and summer championships with Yokohama High School . At that time, Cisco's stock price actually fell by a staggering 50%. Tom then cites the following events as background information for that time .
The internet was still in its infancy . Cisco is a leading company that supports network infrastructure . The Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's decision to continue the policy amid unfounded enthusiasm has fueled concerns in the market about further monetary tightening. Nevertheless, Cisco's stock price subsequently recovered significantly .
So, Cisco saw a significant rebound in Borraco, which the city highlighted as a historic price movement. It was initially down 50%. Based on stock price statements made in 1997 and beyond, the price went from $5 to approximately $18, which is a 3.6-fold increase. It went down to $5 and near later was $118.
I think the setup is similar. So, a year later was 18 dollars, right? I think the situation is still similar now. What Fuji wants to convey is that even leading companies with groundbreaking technological growth can still experience severe stock price corrections . So, the internet revolution was in 1997 and the AI revolution is in 2026, meaning it's been about 30 years already.
Looking at it from 1997... So , first of all, the technology I'm confident in is definitely the internet. And in 2020, it's definitely artificial intelligence. A representative company is now NDIA, founded in 1997. The investment theme is telecommunications infrastructure, now AI computing infrastructure, and finance.
Market concerns include monetary tightening. And now, interest-based financing for 2026. Wow, the stock market is experiencing a significant correction. And now, AI stocks are booming. Toshi's allies later revolted back in 1997 . The expectation is that a similar development will occur in 2026 . The important point is that it's not certain that Cisco and NBT will meet the same fate .
In fact, Cisco's stock price fell sharply again during the IT bubble burst in 2000. So that's the difficult, or rather, scary, part of investing in individual stocks . Nevertheless, I believe we should not confuse Tom Rim's short-term stock price surge with its long-term strategy of concealing its technology .
So, the five main points to convey in this interview are that concerns about an AI bubble are actually becoming more apparent. Sorry, we can't raise funds . That's healthy. On the contrary, this indicates a healthy financial situation, which is motivating fundraising efforts and preventing reckless spending during the current period .
Secondly, the AI revolution is not yet in its mature stage . Yes, there is still great room for technological advancement and productivity improvement . Tom Lee believes that the 30 trillion needed for A is not excessive, and that it is a long-term infrastructure investment. He also suggests that the current selling pressure may be nearing its end, and that the concentration of weak positions and improvements in financial conditions may be the factors driving the rebound.
So, they're expecting a rebound similar to Cisco's in 1997, and are bullish on AI reactionary memory large high-tech stocks, as well as software and financial stocks . However, there are points to be aware of regarding the launch scenario, so if you use Tom Lee's claims in your investment decisions, you will still need to consider the risks on the other side .
Three points to be aware of. Even as AI technology grows, it does n't necessarily mean that investors will be able to recoup sufficient profits. If the deterioration of the credit market continues, it will affect capital investment and corporate performance. The similarities between historical market trends do not guarantee future stock price increases .
Therefore, it is indeed important to consider separately whether the expectations for the A Revolution and the current stock prices are undervalued . So, what my mentor wants to tell investors is that the AI revolution is not over. Well, the selling trend is nearing its end. And now, investment opportunities arise.
Will this recent sharp decline be seen as the beginning of the AI bubble's collapse, or as a healthy correction leading up to the next surge ? Well, Hayashi's position is clear. As long as the AI growth story remains intact, this decline could present an opportunity for long-term investors . However, please keep in mind that this is Tom Lee's prediction and not something that has been confirmed by the market .
Well , to be honest, even if people say the selling market is nearing its end, I'm not so sure about that . To be honest, I'm wondering whether this is something I can trust or not . Well, we'll find out the answer later , and there's a possibility it might even drop further. I think it's best not to jump in too easily at this point.
Especially individual stocks , or rather, sectors, or even going all-in on leveraged Nasdaq , is out of the question in a declining market like this . So, to summarize what we've covered so far, regarding Nasta, Kyuraku, and whether or not it's still a conversation, I'll summarize Tomleesi's story .
If you enjoyed the video, please pause it here and take your time to watch it again . Well, the words used weren't that complicated, and there weren't many troublesome words or sentences, but I wonder what will happen with this AI. Well, I do n't even know if it's a bubble or not, but I certainly don't think it's already collapsed .
I honestly feel like there's still a long way to go . So, from here , we'll look at the views of these three gentlemen, our usual host Scott, and the analysts, the super analysts . Well, Josh Brown usually looks like a drunk, but he didn't look that drunk today. Next, we'll look at the opinions of C-chan and one other person, a total of three people.
So, the meter stock is a quick success. However, the core business is performing well, so there is a strong indication that there is a gap between the current company performance and the market's reaction regarding Meta's stock price decline. Meta's core business, advertising freedom, continues to have strong sales, exceeding market expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter, and has continued to grow sales by 20 trillion yen.
It also has a track record of monetization, such as AI-powered ad optimization . The main point is that the stock isn't being sold because of poor current performance, but rather because of concerns about the impact future investments in educational facilities will have on future profitability. So, regarding whether Meta is confident in its ability to divest from AI investments , the strong believe that Meta will become a company that will require even more capital investment in the future .
However, this was evaluated as a necessary change in business structure for the A era. They wouldn't be spending this if they didn't think they could make money. When you really think about it, that makes sense; they would n't invest this much if they didn't think they could make money . You're right, now that you mention it .
They would n't be spending that much. If they didn't think they could make money, they probably wouldn't be doing this much, which is why Meta has a huge advertising base, a massive advertising revenue base . Furthermore, they have a track record of early monetization, and AI-driven monetization has already begun .
So, the focus is on long-term profit growth, prioritizing long-term profit expansion over short-term cash flow deterioration . However, just because a manager is confident in their ability to recoup their investment doesn't mean they will actually succeed . Therefore, since the demand for AI itself has not declined, the AI enthusiasts, while acknowledging the lack of funding in the AI industry, argue that there has been no significant change in the demand landscape.
OENAICL Jenny is at the center of the company's activities . Wow, companies are already incorporating AI into their daily operations . For companies using AI, the location of the data center where the AI is running is a secondary concern. The most important thing is that AI can be used reliably. So, what I care about that AI works for me is that it works properly.
That's a very reasonable point, but as an important point, the fact that there is a strong demand for AI services does not mean that all companies that invest in AI infrastructure will make money . Therefore, the key to success in AI competition will be the company that can build cheaply and quickly , meaning that in future AI competition, the crucial factor will be who can build data battles most efficiently.
Wow, SpaceX is expected to be a force in infrastructure competitiveness, with a fast pace of AI infrastructure construction . Google Cloud integrates AI and CLU, and Amazon AWS has a massive cloud business infrastructure . Regarding SpaceX, they also mentioned their plans to build 10 GW and their contract revenue of approximately $20 billion per GBW .
These are plans and projections presented during discussions, not actual projected profits. So , it's not that the market will rise for anything related to AI , but rather that there's a possibility that only companies that can actually generate profits will be selected. And Meta also has a trump card: entering the cloud business.
In the discussion, it was pointed out that Meta may provide its massive air infrastructure to external companies in the future . "Weareinthecloud computerbusinessto2" means that we are also entering the cloud computing business . Well, this isn't an official announcement from Meta , but rather a hypothetical statement from an investment committee member .
So, the meta of building live-action infrastructure involves constructing a large amount of AI data for live-action. And as a new pillar of revenue , if we can offer these to external companies in the future , it could potentially become a new source of revenue other than advertising . Well, from the perspective of the strong, the astonishing capital investment could potentially generate other profitable businesses in the future .
The real risk for the AI industry is whether or not there is a lack of capital, and in the discussion, the most talked-about aspect was the competition for funding among AI-related companies . Regarding the meter, the following expression was introduced in relation to disclosure. The phrase "are increasingly changing environment for laying capital" means that the environment surrounding fundraising is becoming increasingly difficult.
yes. It's quite difficult. Well, the companies that have been mentioned in the context of the fundraising competition are AlphabetSpaceX, Ansalofic, and OpenAI— companies that you all know, as you probably already know. The fact that AI-related companies are all needing joint funding could intensify the competition for investment money .
One point that will likely be discussed going forward is that the demand for AI is so strong that there will be a shortage of investment funds . And NBD CEO also warned that AI is important, but capital strength still can't keep up, and J Senfan said, "The demand for the cloud is of the church," so the freedom of the cloud is at a very low level.
I briefly mentioned this yesterday. Furthermore, regarding the term "funding," it is stated that the demand for capitalism is greater than the availability of capital . AI is extremely important, and there is a shortage of working capital needed to build data centers. A competition for capital has erupted among AI companies and government agencies .
Mr. Fan also expressed the view that the capital shortage would eventually be resolved . So, NBT and its CEO are focusing not on a lack of AI demand, but on a lack of funding to meet that demand . Therefore, if the cost of capital rises, the profit margins of AI companies will decrease. The new agency is concerned about the combination of increased investment in AI equipment and rising financing costs .
So, investment in education could increase companies' demand for funds , potentially leading to higher borrowing interest rates and higher returns demanded by shareholders . Data center operating costs are also increasing. Furthermore, if the rate of return on investment falls below the cost of capital, it puts pressure on the company's value .
Ah, so "Weight the peak, mergweat peak profitability" means that profits have already peaked, right? As for profitability , well, the question is whether this is the peak or the highest point . The important point here is that even if sales continue to grow, the return on investment and return on investment may decline.
So, who will ultimately bear the full cost of the loss? The most severe scenario presented by the new director is " whogetleft holding the bag," which means who will ultimately end up bearing the losses ? If AI companies find it difficult to raise funds, the following problems may arise. Major AI companies are scaling back their data center construction plans.
Businesses that have already started investing in equipment will be affected . The burden will fall heavily on the contracting parties and the cloud service providers handling the project . The profitability and financial foundation of some companies will deteriorate. Well, the discussion also included a reference to Microsoft's data planning in Europe.
Even if the AI revolution is successful, there's still a possibility that some companies will suffer losses in the process . The criteria for valuing rare assets have begun to change, and lastly , what Mr. Taka pointed out was a change in the attitude of investors , that there is a topolitically positive stance for hyperscalers, meaning that the market is not accepting at all the possibility of hyperscalers going into negative cash flow .
This 0 tolerance does not mean that we will not acknowledge anything at all . Well, you could say it's a lack of patience, but this "zero- tension" approach, well, that's what a hypercompany is. Going negative cash flow means that we will not allow cash flow to fall into negative territory . However, the following four points will become more important going forward.
Can sales growth translate into AI demand and revenue? Can profit margins withstand increased capital investment? Can free cash flow businesses generate cash? And what about fundraising capabilities? Can they continue making astonishing investments? Well, the final conclusion is that AI is strong, AI-related stocks are strong, and it's a good sign that AI-related stocks will continue to rise .
yes. I wonder what everyone thought ? I think this might have been a good hint for people who are investing in AI-related things or who are thinking about investing in AI-related things in the future. Well, Meta had just released calculations this time , so the discussion revolved around the meter, and I think it was very educational for me.
overheu GMU GMYouTubechannel Even on nights when the news is making a fuss, futures are still high, but history shows that the market always turns upwards. Even on nights when you're surrounded by voices of weakness and want to sell, the future awaits on the other side of the charts . The more people are afraid, the closer the opportunity gets.
At night, we reach out our hands from high to receive the money that stands tall, and in the future, we stand tall, and it's black, isn't it? We change it, and although the TV is stirring things up, the world doesn't stop. AI is also making conger eels. After a storm of pessimism, a calm morning will follow.
If it's a long journey together, then that's just part of the way. Reach out your hand from the country where the gold has bloomed and take it . Standing in the future, standing in Boracouriness, flying away, changing into
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