저자: BernardodeGarcia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼의 연준 금리 인하 기대 경고를 인용하며, 시장이 연준의 금리 인하를 너무 빨리 기대하면 인플레이션 억제 효과가 약해져 긴축이 길어지고 큰 조정이 올 수 있다는 관점. Key 주장: 애크먼은 연준이 금리를 높게 더 오래 유지할 것이라고 봄. 시장이 금리 인하를 선반영하면 연준이 금리를 더 올려야 한다는 논리. 애크먼 트윗/발언 해석: 연준 의장 파월이 금리 상단을 3.4% 수준까지 올린 뒤 빠르게 인하할 것이란 시장 기대를 비판. 인플레이션이 경제에 뿌리내렸으며 미국인 전체가 이를 인식하고 있다는 주장. 거시 지표: 주택 판매 7월 대비 20% 이상 감소, 30년 모기지 금리 약 6%(과거 800년 만에 최고 수준 언급은 부정확 가능), 기업들의 채용 중단·감원 예고. 미국 경제가 9월경 침체될 수 있다는 월가 전망 언급. 금리 경로: 9월 25bp 인상 가능성, 이후 내년 1분기 말~2분기 초 인하 사이클 시작 예상. 블랙록은 내년 금리 인하 전망. 시장 전망: 발표자는 나스닥/S&P 단기 하락(4,100대, 4,540~4,750 언급)을 예측하나 9월~11월 이후 반등 가능성 언급. 마이크로소프트·구글 실적은 예상보다 양호했다고 평가. 종목 언급: 마이크로소프트(단기 조정 후 반등 관점, 350달러 복귀는 12개월 내 어렵다고 봄), 아마존(124달러 돌파 시 콜옵션 매도로 헤지, 150달러는 넘기 어렵다고 봄), 구글·테슬라·페이팔·웹 등 최근 상승 언급. 리스크: 단기 조정, 소비 둔화, 인플레이션 장기화, 연준 정책 변화. 출연자 전망: 단기 하락 가능성 제기, 중기적으로는 9~11월 이후 금리 인하 기대로 반등 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, just hours before the Federal Reserve announces another interest rate hike, and the markets start to rejoice because it seems the Fed is getting closer to cutting rates, Bill Ackman is sounding the alarm, saying this isn't working. So the Federal Reserve raises rates, and if the markets start pricing in a rate cut, it turns out to have the opposite effect on the economy.
What does all this mean? That the Federal Reserve is going to maintain high rates for much longer than the markets are anticipating, which means we could see a massive correction. In this video, we're going to look at Bill Ackman's latest statements. We're going to try to understand what he's saying, whether it makes sense or not, and how we can position ourselves to take advantage of these rallies.
We're having some fantastic days thanks to stocks like Google, up 7%, PayPal, and Web, up 11%. Right now, we're only thinking about Microsoft. Should we sell these stocks, taking advantage of these big gains, or should we buy more? Because, as the ad says, We're going to see it right now, but not before reminding you that if you hit that "like" button, something very good will happen, and obviously, you'll be doing a lot of trading in the market.
That's how it works; I'm not saying this, Bill Ackman is. Well, we know that the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jay Powell are going to keep interest rates high until inflation falls. However, Bill Ackman says that they will rise and stay higher for longer to control inflation. He ended up tweeting, as we can see right now on the screen.
We have the tweets here; we have them all, so they're a little smaller, so we're going to zoom in, and I'm going to disappear in case I block something. Okay, let's translate, obviously little by little. He says, "It is likely that tomorrow he would obey." This is addressed informally by Bayern. "It is likely that today Jay Powell will be asked about market prices." This implies that the terminal's FF rate will reach a maximum of 3.4 percent.
That is to say, interest rates will reach 3.4 percent on December 22nd and will immediately fall to 27 percent. By the end of 2023, what factors would cause the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates immediately after raising them? Interestingly, the more the market believes the Fed will immediately change course, the less effective it will be to raise rates to moderate inflation, and the more the Fed will have to raise rates.
Inflation has become ingrained in the economy, and this is on the minds of all Americans. For the first time, an excusable renewal proposal was presented—I do n't know if it was a renewal of an audit contract for one of our firms— with an inflation factor to justify the increase in the annual fee. The biggest risk to the American economy is not that the Fed will raise interest rates; it is inflation, which is hurting consumers and business confidence, in addition to the price increases for consumers of a new house, a car, gasoline, food, etc.
The Fed understands this. Therefore, I hope that Jay Powell shows an aggressive determination not only to keep rates higher for longer but also to be open to a terminal rate in a significant way. The billionaire fund manager Regarding hedging, as we were reading, it said that inflation poses the greatest risk to the US economy.
It's not the Fed's rate hikes, but the high prices that weigh on consumer and business confidence. What was happening, and there's some truth to it, is that if the Fed raises rates in line with market expectations or estimates, it will have the opposite effect, since the market won't correct itself significantly.
We're going to have this great recession, this great crisis, this great crash. The market, let's say, will anticipate it and start to rise again. If the market rises, consumption also rises, which also raises inflation. The current level of interest rates is between 15 and 175 right now, and it's expected that the Fed will raise them another 75 basis points to 225-250 today, unless there's a surprise, and another 100 basis points to 250-275, which there's about a 25 percent chance of, according to the market itself.
Ajman's forecast comes when some major analysts On Wall Street, people expect the Fed to shift its focus to boosting growth instead of fighting inflation as higher rates weigh on the economy. I don't know, we've seen it, but there was a contraction in home sales July versus July, if I'm not mistaken, of more than 20 percent.
Obviously, we're talking about a 30-year mortgage now costing us 6 percent, levels we haven't seen in 800 years. This is hurting, and it's going to continue hurting the economy. On the other hand, we have every company in the world saying they're going to stop hiring and start laying off workers. And even though we're seeing very positive job creation data and the economy continues with a very high unemployment rate, excuse me for saying things like, "New, it's going to hit one," and many on Wall Street are saying the economy is going to crash as early as September.
The Fed could raise rates by 25 basis points in September and maybe another 25, but that will be the end of it. From then on, the Fed will probably start towards the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of next year. Lowering interest rates will begin a new cycle, meaning that starting now, and quite likely by the end of the year, if not much sooner in my opinion, in September, we'll see the end of this major crash.
We'll remain sideways for a while, perhaps, and then we'll start to rise, as the markets will anticipate a new cycle that the Fed will begin, as we said, at the end of the first quarter of next year or the beginning of the second. We also have the fact that, not yesterday but on Monday, BlackRock said that the Fed will reduce interest rates as early as next year, as we said, after an excessive adjustment because it's believed that right now the Fed is stepping on the gas and raising interest rates very aggressively, and that it's going to ruin absolutely everything, that inflation is going to plummet, and from there the Fed will reverse course.
However, and going back to the video, Akman warned that such expectations actually weaken the Fed's fight against inflation and will force it to tighten rates even more, the more the market believes that the Fed is going to change course. The less effective the interest rate hikes will be in moderating inflation almost immediately, the more the Fed will have to raise rates.
Inflation is deeply ingrained in the economy and is on the minds of all Americans. If Americans see the Fed raising rates but know that in three or six months the Fed will stop raising them, what will the investors and analysts do? What will the markets do? Nothing will happen. I'll hold on, I'll keep investing, I'll keep buying, maybe I'll keep spending a little less, but I'll continue to do so gradually because I know this will end very soon.
This obviously won't help anything with inflation. However, in my opinion, it's worth the losses. We still have some here, and as we mentioned, this means we're going to see another correction soon. Maybe it won't come so soon, it depends on how the Fed comes right now and tells us, "Hey, this is going to happen, that is going to happen, we're going to be more dovish, we're going to be more dovish." But in my opinion, what are they thinking?
The Hundred pipe is coming down again, I'm seeing lows, especially after the Google and Microsoft spoilers. We're going to have worse news, more bad news, a new, extra dose of negative news. Or without a doubt, that spicy news could easily reach, as we said, around 4,100-something. It decreased 123 because, obviously, the moving averages said it would drop to around 4,540,750 in the short term.
That's my prediction. Why is this going to happen? Because instead of having these negative news that we thought we were going to have, specifically about the forecasts of the big companies, what's happening is that Google hasn't been as bad as we expected. Microsoft has been a total mess; the market didn't know what to do.
I was selling it at first, and it turns out that in the end, Microsoft's shares are shooting up 5%. Not because of the planes themselves, as we said, it's the free-roaming people on the management team who are the best in class, they are obviously the best, leading the best companies, and they turn things around.
Whatever needs to be turned around, they also said, quite rightly, that they are seeing a rather interesting consumption by corporations and companies because they all want to take advantage of this downturn to reinvest in Haiti. That's why it also catches my attention that there's cybersecurity, just looking at the data and offering a fork, even tremendously positive.
We also realize that Microsoft/EFE, after Russia and China, lost more than a billion dollars in profits. A billion dollars in profits, revenues... I do n't know where I am. It means that once the market says, " This happened," once the Russia thing happened, once the China thing happened, the currency exchange is going to get worse, but it's not going to be with us forever.
Once we start navigating this and begin to have much more clarity thanks to the comments of the blind people and Ozzy, photos from both Microsoft and Google, suddenly the situation of this great week of trading is no longer so negative, and all the outlook that certain companies like perhaps Snapchat, Target, or Walmart were giving us...
It's not so negative anymore. It's not that the consumer isn't consuming, it's not that the consumer, as was said, is n't consuming online, they're consuming in person at Walmart, and Walmart here, nobody's consuming, it's that the consumer is consuming in specific places. What's happening with Coca-Cola?
How are the prices coming in? How are the prices of Imex, like bone mineral, McDonald's anise, how were the prices of Chipotle? Prices keep going up, people keep buying Burrito Frenzy. So what's the verdict, Bernardo? Do we buy or sell, as we've been saying for some time, indiscriminately? We can't really trust this market much.
We're interested in making trades, practically what we do in the group. We make money almost every day lately from the market. Personally, if I wanted to buy something and hold it for a couple of months, I'd go towards Pic Tech. However, it's very true that these real prices we're seeing... I do n't mean to say I want to sell them, but I would be willing to learn things against these rallies because I don't think I do n't think Microsoft, for example, has the possibility of returning to $350 in the next 12 months, or Amazon, or Google.
I don't think these companies have the possibility of returning to their all-time highs in the next 12 months. With a few Teslas and some drawbacks, I might not be too optimistic because these companies surprised me a lot with their production figures, but I do n't see these companies, Amazon, S3, etc., returning to their all-time highs in the next twelve months.
What I mean is that every rally I see in these stocks, at least personally with Amazon, for example, if it goes above $124, even though I have Amazon positions, what I'm going to do to protect myself—because I do have Amazon positions—is sell calls and maybe take a six- month or several-month timeframe.
I'm going to take a bit of a leap and say, "I don't think Amazon will reach $150," and if it does, I'm going to sell them on that date. In that way, I'm receiving passive income through these calls, and this protection in case my stock doesn't continue to rise, effectively generating income. But anyway, we're getting a little off-topic.
These are Bill Ackman's comments. The truth is, they're quite right, but personally, I'd be surprised to see the markets end up falling, at least in the next few months, or even weeks specifically. For this reason, I don't think this will happen until at least September or November, more specifically November, when the markets will say, "I did n't expect these comments from the Fed," because we're practically already anticipating the Fed's comments in September.
Ladies and gentlemen, let's get ready. In a couple of hours, the Fed meeting will be live. The markets are going to be wild, so let's get to it. As always, I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, don't forget to hit the Adobe button, subscribe, the bell icon, the blue " like" button, and . Ladies and gentlemen, I hope you enjoyed it.
Have a fantastic day, smile, be happy, and tell your critics that you love them. We'll say goodbye until the next video
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