저자: BernardodeGarcia · 외국인
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시장 급락 우려가 커지는 가운데 마이클 배리가 AI 버블 경고와 엔비디아·팔란티어 숏 포지션을 공개했다는 내용. 골드만삭스·모건스탠리 CEO도 10~20% 조정 가능성을 언급했으나 실제 발언 맥락상 대부분 과거 사실 전달이며, 진행자는 시장 방향에 대해 명확한 입장을 밝히지 않음. 테슬라 보상안 반대(노르웨이 국부펀드) 및 팔란티어 실적 후 하락, 스타벅스 중국사업 매각, 스포티파이·엔비디아 독일 데이터센터 뉴스 등을 다룸.
다듬은 글
Get ready because the panic is starting. The markets are really tanking. Now it's time to sell everything. Wall Street CEOs are sounding the alarm that a correction of more than 20% is starting right now. This is also supported by the comments of Michael Burray and his positions, where he has more than 80% of his portfolio shorted in Nvidia and Palantir.
If you also own Tesla shares, this is of great interest to you. The most promising salary package could be rejected, and more could leave their AI robotics jobs at Tesla. We'll be discussing Spotify's Palantir quarterly results. We have some great news from Nvidia, tremendous news from Denis. Congratulations and lots more news from these markets.
Hey YouTube, how are you all doing? Let's get started with the latest news, as usual. Today is Tuesday, November 4th. But first, as always, I want to remind you that if you like these kinds of videos, please give them a like button. I appreciate it from the bottom of my heart. Salvador, our friend today, tells us, "What a goal with the Kenview prediction!
You've already got two with UPS. I'm going to take this channel more seriously. I've noted your Constellation Brand prediction, Salvador. Thank you so much." Salvador also shares an extraordinary clip from my live streams. With Salvador's permission, I'm going to post it. Here it is. I'm keeping this.
Watch. Cheers, mate. Thank you so much. I hadn't noticed all of these. We have Fran, we have Milo, we have Alpacas, we have Intel, we have Qi, we have Jo, and honestly, I find them super interesting. Before we start, please excuse me for forgetting—I always forget. Check out the newsletter. Seriously, it's free.
There's tons of value, tons of content, just 5 minutes a week. www.pernardengarcia.com/newsletter, you'll find the link in the video description. As always, thank you so much. Let's continue with the video. We'll quickly go through these markets because we have a lot Chiche, as we're seeing, markets are tanking right now.
140 for the Nasdaq. It's close to its intraday low. These small-cap futures are falling at 165. Bond yields are also falling. Money is seeking refuge. The $10 Treasury bond is still above 4%, almost 4.1%, the $30 Treasury bond is strengthening to $100. The Euro/Dollar is at 114. Keep an eye on Bitcoin, it's also tanking at a multi-week low of 104,000.
Here's the Bitcoin chart. This is a 15- minute daily chart, it's in a very good buying zone, or rather, a resistance zone, because Bitcoin always ends up being rescued here. We'll see if this rally, since we haven't seen a rally in altcoins, we'll see if this gap between large and small cryptocurrencies holds or if it closes and these large cryptocurrencies fall.
Well, we'll see what happens or if this It's the new normal, so to speak. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at 104,000 and 3,500 respectively. Let's go. Now for the news. In my opinion, the most important news of the day, without a doubt, is that Michael Burry is back with a bubble warning after two years of silence.
The day before Halloween, perhaps he should have waited a couple of hours to give a more sinister touch to the October 31st post. Michael Burry, the actor from The Big Short, emerged from his periodic hibernation on Twitter, where he usually deletes his account from time to time to reappear months later with a cryptic post referencing both the classic Star Wars film and The Big Short, in which Christian Bell plays the lead role.
He said, "Sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes there's something to be done about it, sometimes the only winning play is to effectively not play." Today I received another message, as we have been seeing for about 14 hours, which suggested that, as Goldman Sachs already did last summer, the profitability of AI was too low and that, just like the beginnings of the dot-com bubble, when there was excessive spending on fiber optics, many of the leading companies of the AI bubble are going to collapse spectacularly.
And then something interesting would happen. Burry's Asset Management company published its Form 13F a couple of hours, uh a couple of weeks earlier, sorry, than expected, and revealed that Burry not only sees a bubble, but is taking action about it. It's entering very strongly, as we see in stocks or short positions in Palantir and Nvidia.
But it's not just Burri, as we said, who is seeing these kinds of bubbles; Wall Street executives are stating that investors should prepare for a stock market drop of more than 10, 15, or 20% in the next 12 to 24 months, and that this correction could be a positive factor for them, obviously, because they are already shorting the stock.
Surprise or surprise. Corporate earnings are solid, but valuations are problematic. This is something we 've never talked about on the channel, it's something completely new. Well, anyway, regarding whether the shares are cheap or fairly priced or overvalued, these management teams commented that most would say they are somewhere between fairly priced and overvalued, but they don't think many would consider them cheap and fair.
For me there is no margin of safety, everything here is too tight. He also added that the same applies to credit spreads, so there is some systemic risk. Their opinions, or the opinions of these managers, are shared by many other managers. Ted Pig, CEO of Morgan Stanley, and David Solomon, also CEO of Goldman Sachs, both foresee the possibility of a massive sell-off in the coming period and state that corrections are a normal feature of market cycles.
That's why we always say buy when there's panic, sell when there's euphoria, catch 'em, catch 'em. So simple, yet so complicated to have that patience and the ability to sit with your hands under your legs doing nothing. Directly to Tesla stock. Beware, Ronuega's sovereign wealth fund rejects Ilon Mas's new $1 trillion-plus pay package, becoming the first major investor to publicly announce its decision.
Norge Bank Investment Management, the branch of the Central Bank that manages the fund of almost 2,000, not trillion dollars, 2 trillion, ah, expressed its concern on Tuesday about the magnitude of the remuneration. While we recognize the significant value generated by Mr. Mask's visionary role, we are concerned about the total bonus amount, the dilution, and the lack of risk mitigation associated with reliance on key personnel.
In line with our stance on this performance-based remuneration, executives, excuse me, performance-based, Tesla said in a statement that its shares were up a little over 3% in this pre-market, although this was a little before all this sell-off that we were seeing in the futures. It's at 260 and something, it holds up pretty well, to be honest.
Congratulations. Anyway, as we were looking at just a few minutes ago, futures are falling sharply. There we have the NASDAQ down 1.4%, pressured by the decline in AI-related companies. Stocks like Amazon and Nvidia are down slightly more than 1% in this pre-market trading. Following the comments from both these CEOs and positions, obviously from Michael Burry, we have Meta, we have Alphabet, we have all these are also registering enamel declines of 1%.
The markets are obviously unsettled, as we said, by these statements. Suddenly, as you can see, the feeling has changed . Nothing has happened, but that's how the market is. The market is not here to tell us what to do. The market is here for us to take advantage of. If you took advantage, great, and if not, we'll take better advantage next time.
Could this signify the beginning of a massive fall? Perfectly. Can this bounce back? Perfectly. The market doesn't have to tell us what to do. We have to say it. The CEO of Goldman Sachs stated that this 10-20% drop is likely to occur in the next 12-18 months. And as we said, Ted Pck, CEO of Morgan Stanley, also added that they should consider the possibility of drops of more than 15% that are not due to a macroeconomic collapse effect per se, but simply to a correction because the vouchers are exorbitant.
Yesterday, Wall Street closed a mixed session. Samp and Nasdaq ended higher, while Dow Jones was above 200 points. For now, more than 300 stocks in the general index were closing lower. Yesterday, after reporting these quarterly results, I discussed the concern about the lack of diversification in the market and the high concentration of technology, especially after the number of S&P stocks that rose last month was less than the number that fell.
Strong third-quarter results and larger AI investment plans from major technology companies have fueled this bull market. Undoubtedly, the performance of the Max 7 group of shares has become more uneven. To date, as we said, more than 300 SAP companies have published quarterly results and more than 80% of them exceeded expectations, which is not bad at all.
Among them was Palanter, which after wanting to rise, is falling 7%, despite raising its annual revenue forecast to more than $4.4 billion and exceeding analysts' estimates . As we said, these shares are falling, they are falling dramatically due to concerns about the company's high valuation, nothing more and nothing less.
It's still a spectacular company, it's still doing spectacularly well, but perhaps we're paying too much, or the market is saying, "This isn't outrageous what we 're paying, it's the market." The market is neither right nor wrong. It's here, as we always say, to serve us. Palantir shares are down around 7.3% in pre-market trading after having risen by more than 7%, if I remember correctly, when we were covering it live, and we have them at 222 after the report was released.
Palantir was growing by more than 60%, whereas last quarter it grew by 50%, and the quarter before that by 40%. We're still seeing this expansion from Palantir, but— and here's the tricky part—what's the fair price for Palantir? I honestly have no idea. It's an extraordinarily difficult problem. I'm done with all of this .
I'm going for something where making money is easier. The markets have driven these shares up by more than 150%, which is... year-to-date, closing Monday at a record high of over 207.18. The company had a price-to- earnings ratio of 85, the highest in the entire S&P 500. Let's move on to Spotify's quarterly results.
There it is on screen, rising 3.3%. Ah, after users grew by more than 10% to reach over 710,000 in the third quarter, exceeding analysts' estimates of just 710,711. The world's largest music streaming service registered 281 million paid subscribers, in line with projections. The Stockholm-based company reported revenue growth of over 7% to €424.27 billion, nearly $5 billion .
They also beat analysts' expectations of around €400 million to €4.23 billion. The subscriber growth occurred worldwide, according to the company. Spotify also Nvidia was showcasing new products, including audio tools, messaging, and, let's say, a high-end mix. We're now moving on to, as you know, Nvidia stock.
And we're seeing a mixed market again, so to speak. We see the shares falling 2.3%, 2.1%, along with the rest of the market. This is despite the fact that Nvidia and Deutsche Telecom are building a data center—surprise, surprise—worth €1 billion , $1.2 billion, in Germany to bolster the European infrastructure capable of powering complex AI systems.
The facility, which will be one of the largest in Europe, will begin operations in the first quarter of 2026, as announced today by Germany's largest telecommunications operator in a press release. This information was also published by Bloomberg News and other newspapers. The plans were presented at an event in Berlin with the participation of Nvidia CEO Jason Juan and Deutsche Telecom CEO Team Hotkes, as well as executives from SAP, Deutsche Bank, and two government ministers.
German. His presence highlighted how Europe's largest economy seeks to develop its own AI ecosystem to share with its rivals in the United States and China. Obviously, flying to Starbucks where, surprise, surprise, a very good sale. I like the company, I think, I mean, I like the company, I don't buy coffee at Starbucks, it would seem, well, like utter shamelessness, I'd be damned.
Ah, but it's selling at a price I couldn't even imagine. Congratulations on the sale, because it's selling far above what I thought it could , but well, we could calculate its price with this sale. The thing is, Starbucks agreed to sell a majority stake in its China business to the private equity firm Bo Capital, as we've been warning for over a month.
And here 's the surprise. This is valued at $4 billion and is an attempt to revitalize the coffee chain in the country. The thing is, Bo Capital will control up to 60% of Starbucks' retail operations in China through a new According to a joint venture statement from both companies, Starbucks retains the remaining 40% and will continue to license the brand and intellectual property to the joint venture.
This agreement ends the search for a partner to help Starbucks define its next stage in China, where it has nearly 8,000 stores after opening its first location in Beijing in 1999. What a great year. However, Starbucks has faced difficulties in recent years, as have other Western companies that have lost their way in China against their local competitors in a context of growing nationalism and reluctance to pay high prices for foreign brands.
We're done with Denis; we've been talking about Denis for, I don't know, a year now, we've been talking about Denis for a long time. They're robbing them blind, ladies and gentlemen. They're robbing Denis. They're paying right now , well, I don't know how much they're going to pay. 6.15, 6.20. In my opinion, it's robbery, but that's how it is.
Denis has agreed to its acquisition for $322 million in a deal led by the private equity firm The private equity firm responsible for PF Chanks and TGI Fridays, Thengotis Friday, is acquiring Denis's shareholders. Denis's shareholders will receive 625 in cash per share, representing a 52% premium over Monday's closing price .
As we're seeing, Denis's shares are up 50%. Congratulations if you are or have recently bought Denis's shares. This transaction will be conducted entirely in cash, with three entities collaborating to acquire the restaurant chain: New York-based private equity firm Triartian Capital Advisor, alternative asset investment firm Travel Capital Group, and Yadaf Enterprises, one of Denis's largest franchisees .
The Denis's Board of Directors has unanimously approved the transaction, which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026. Here's a special situation, so to speak, quite easy to understand, very digestible, interesting, I do n't know. You be the judge. For me, it's a rip-off. If we got together, a few of us , I'd...
I'd love to buy it for 320 million. Everything, Denis, what's going on? Obviously, there's a catch here, not just the 320 million, but we also have to look at what's happening with Denis's debt because it's substantial. But this is where we can do a mental exercise, okay? A little brain teaser, a stretch of our brains, and we see we have an enterprise value of 625 million, okay?
The market cap is 211, they're going to buy it for about 50% above that, so, add 100 million to this, add 100 million to this. 725,726 million dollars. And now I ask you, with the cash flow capacity it has, with the debt it has, what other businesses, what other restaurants are in a similar position to Denis?
What multiples are they paying for Denis and what 's happening in this private market that's valuing these companies? That the public market, which we have the opportunity to access every day, is leaving us... 50% discount at least, because as I said, I consider 625 to be highway robbery. What opportunities are we seeing?
If you see any, let me know in the comments and explain why, because maybe we'll see some sushi. Well, maybe the sushi thing is booming, we don't know if it has manageable debt, manageable success, etc., etc., etc. But anyway, congratulations, if you're in Denis, ah, let 's go directly, as we were saying, to these quarterly results.
Yes, we have quarterly results today, obviously. Let's see them on the screen right now. There they are. We have Uber, we haven't heard anything. Pizza, BP, we have Ferrari. Let's see Ferrari. AMD at the close. Alright. Beyond meet. Nice. Upstar action, Pinterest. We're going to have a good time, aren't we?
We're going to have a good time today, indeed. Well, let's go directly to our futures to see how they're evolving. It's coming out a bit worse. Intraday trading, but things are still going to get tough today, huh? And now we're going to our sectors. We have them on the screen . There they are. South Korea, metals, semiconductors, technology, natural gas, gold miners falling.
The ones that are rising right now? Only Consumer Staples. Surprise, surprise. Wow, nobody expected this capital rotation . Ah, that's a bit sarcasm. Uh, Denis 50, Caming Upwor, Extra Science, the BX, Spotify 3%, Yum China, Clorox, Yum Brands, Baidu, Vital Farms, we're not seeing Ferrari here, I don't know if I also have Ferrari on my watchlist.
No, I don't, look, but let's put it there. Dan Ferrari 1.3% after lowering guidance just 15 days ago. It seems we already have the results out. Ferrari stock rise after earnings bit. Here's the good news for investors. Expected to be more than 10.29 versus 10. Revenue expected to be more than 83 versus 82 estimate.
Okay. Well, the estimate rises. Hee hee hee. Well, we'll see what happens. Ah, as always, ladies and gentlemen, and congratulations. Ah, I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, don't forget to hit the subscribe button, the bell icon, the like button, and check out the links in the description. We, as always, say goodbye, wishing you the very best. Until the next video.
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