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Wow. Okay. There is a lot of excitement about what's going to happen over the next two weeks in the stock market. Mostly because, well, in my opinion, Jerome Powell talks to us next Wednesday. And if it's anything like what he was like at NAB, which was that not Kathy Wood interview we saw last week, it should be pretty dang bullish or dovish into the direction of money printing or at least turning the money vacuum off and going in the direction of support for the economy.
In my opinion, this is one of the reasons why we're seeing this insane surge of gold today because we're seeing a market that is ready for Powell to go doubbish. And it's frankly great for now. Now, we don't know if Powell is going to be too late, but what we do know is right now we really miss negative catalyst.
We don't have a lot negative going on. I'm going to break down though what Donald Trump just said because we could see that this is probably setting up for the next big potential negative catalyst. We'll see. Gold though up 3.56% which just absolutely wild. And boy that ad AWS outage who had problems this morning.
I'm scrolling on Weeble with s we're putting the alpha report together and I'm like man the sticks. What is going on? Weeble got hit. Venmo got hit. United Airlines, Robin Hood, Ring doorbells, Reddit, the New York Times, the McDonald's app, Lyft, Disney. The amount of companies hit by the AWS sort of centralized server or s centralized software problem rather than centralized servers, right?
Because the servers are all across the country, but the software is centralized. Uh, but anyway, insane how many companies got hit by this. So, just wild. But Donald Trump did talk this morning. He talked up the deal with Australia. uh and signed a critical minerals rare earth deal with China which is really interesting because if you go to the front page of the global times which is basically the communist news network um not CNN sorry uh of China the very front page the very first article is PLA warns away Australian P8 alpha war plan plane intruding into China's territorial airspace right so basically uh China at the same time as Donald Trump is meeting with the PM of Australia uh is saying, "Hey, you guys are going into our territory here and you're pissing us off." It's kind of interesting, but it's also kind of classic of China.
Uh anytime you get some positivity in the United States with other countries, China tends to do this where they try to go, "Wow, we have problems with them." It's just I don't know if this is sort of their way of negotiating or what. I mean, even what during what Donald Trump said, I thought this was interesting.
During Donald Trump's talk, Donald Trump is going, "China now treats us with great respect." And at the same time, almost the same time, I get a notification from the Chinese embassy in the US. The facts show the US is the real empire of hackers and the biggest source of chaos in cyerspace. The US has hyped up the so-called China cyber threat theory, coerced other countries to stir up Chinese hacker incidents, and sanctioned Chinese enterprises and prosecuted Chinese citizens to confuse the public and distort the truth.
Now, let's be clear, there are plenty of hackers in China, and a lot of them love using cryptocurrencies to cover up their tract. This is not a slight against cryptocurrencies. It's just an observation. It's happening on both sides. Okay. But I I think more from an economic point of view. Uh and I'm looking at Donald Trump talking up this rare earth deal.
He even talks about how in one year from now we'll have so many rare earths we won't know what to do with all the rare earths. Uh and that China is taking advantage of us. We're going to go to 155% tariffs by November 1st unless we have a deal. We'll meet in South Korea though. I think we'll have a deal.
I think we'll end up with a very strong trade deal. I love my relationship with Xiinping. Uh, however, if we don't get a deal done, uh, we're not going to allow China to punish our farmers. China's in big trouble if they don't do business with the United States. We could threaten airplane export controls.
And so, we think that China will come to the table. We're way ahead of China militarily. We'll catch up to them on ship building. We're ahead of them on AI. And where have I told you how many wars I've solved before? I've solved eight wars, more than any other president. four to five because of the greatest tariffs in the world.
The make America great again tariffs. We're doing so great. Yeah. Sorry. Anyway, so basically the what you want to take away from this is between now and November 1st, we're basically just going to sit here and wait for a China trade deal. And come November 1st, we're probably going to get Taco in the way of, well, we're going to give him a little bit more time.
We just need a little bit more time. We're talking. We had a great discussion. Great. One of the best conversations ever, but we're going to do 60 days or 90 days to stop the steel. I mean, stop the tariffs. I mean, stop China. I mean, work with China. So, it just wouldn't really surprise me, which is frankly great for markets.
You know, this gold surge is concerning. It has a lot of people scratching their heads. I mean, we were talking about this in the alpha report this morning because, you know, we're making plans for for uh trading and which stocks we like and and targets or like for example, we had one ticker this morning.
We're like, you know, here's a specific date, the day before uh the POW event that this particular ticker could could peak out. You know, that's the kind of stuff that we talk about in addition to, you know, our top 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years or otherwise. Remember, if you ever join the Alpha Report, you get lifetime access to all those uh programs.
But but understand with like where's the bad news between now and November 1st? What CPI Friday? Who gives a flying hoodie duty? You know, CPI this Friday, expectations are that it's going to come in at 04.3. Big freaking deal. Like if anything, I feel like we're going to miss to the downside on it.
So, I'm I'm very optimistic. I think what Trump just said and I watched every word of it uh is is really just his classic commentary and I really got nothing out of it. Uh and China's you know puffing so to speak is also the same thing that we regularly get. We basically have nothing until November 1st which is and probably then we'll even kick down the road which is great for markets.
This gold signal is a little bit of a warning but the 102 yield curve isn't spiking. So, it's very weird the situation we're in. Uh, Donald Trump then talked about how Hamas doesn't have the support of Iran. Bingo. This is literally what I said uh when the Israel Hamas deal was announced. I said the only way Hamas goes for this deal is if they don't have Hamas or Iran's backing that and I even on, you know, video you saw me pick up the phone and go, "Hey, Iran, uh, China made this deal.
We don't want to take it. Can you send us some more weapons so we can fight?" And Iran's like, "And no, we're not helping you right now." because they got humbled, you know. So, you got to give Trump credit there, you know. Love him or hate him, he's right when he says we wouldn't have a deal if it weren't for our strike on Iran.
I agree with him. Now, obviously, we got some shenanigans going on right now between Israel and Hamas. That's expected. Hamas is a decentralized terrorist group. So, you can't really expect one leader is going to guide them all because there is no one leader. You got splinter cells everywhere doing their own stupid stuff.
But anyway, uh Donald Trump did also say that Hamas or sorry, Ukraine can still win the war. I don't think they will, but they could. I thought that was a very interesting line. Uh then Hasset suggested that the government shutdown might end this week because the Democrats wanted the no kings protest.
I think this is total fugazi. I think that Kevin Hasset is a wet blanket who maybe like slightly heard Donald Trump suggest that maybe Democrats just wanted to wait for the no kings protest which I haven't heard at all. Uh but Hasset's running with it on squawkbox. I think that that's false. I think that Democrats want their healthcare negotiation which is only healthcare for illegals thanks to Gavin Newsome.
So you can blame Gavin Newsome for that because otherwise, you know, healthcare to illegal uh uh immigrants is is not allowed via federal law, but we already know that. So, but this idea of the shutdown, you know, ending this week, that would be bad news because we'll probably get a jobs report that's not pretty.
Uh but I don't think we're actually going to shut down this week. I think we're more realistically going to be, you know, reopened in November, maybe before Thanksgiving, and the politicians want to go back to the holidays. Uh and so frankly I I don't see how we could be bearish unless you know there's some kind of new bank failure or whatever.
Certainly not between now and uh October 1st. So I'm pretty excited uh about uh the the next week and a half here. It's about 11 days. We'll see what breaks out. But when it comes to Powell, understand, let me give you a recap if you don't yet recall what Powell said. So Powell told us, "Wow, I'm just looking here.
Some of these sticks are doing absolutely phenomenal today." It's really incredible. Um, you got the mortgage plays up. You've got, wow, one of our stocks is up 14% today, dude. People got mad at me in the public liveream when I'm like, I'm buying the dip. What was it last Friday or something? People are trying like, well, you're gonna lose.
You're gonna lose. It's up 20 freaking points. Uh, that's great. Oh man. Yeah, I mean a lot just you get nervousness, you get bad news, and then what happens? People go back to buying the dip. You know, it's like it it ain't bad until we confirm either a recession or well, yeah, basically that it's not bad until you confirm a recession.
Anyway, that's great. But understand this with Powell. So Powell at NAB uh was really clear. He wants to end the quantitative tightening, but not only that, Powell wants to see uh support for this labor market. So, he's dovish on the vacuum cleaner, which is good. I don't know if that is going to be dovish money printing anywhere, you know, for the potentially the next year because you have so much of a lever to reduce rates.
Uh however, it will probably confirm not only a rate cut on October 29th, we'll have a rate cut then almost certainly we'll probably get another rate cut in December. So we'll be at 2525 continuously. Remember what Powell said on October 14th when he uh turned, you know, talked about turning the vacuum cleaner off.
He says we have other data beyond government sources. Tariffs are affecting prices, but CPI without the tariffs. So if you you ignore the sort of more transitory impact of tariffs which are more a one-time kind of price increase what he says if we ignore that then we got to focus on jobs uh and therefore uh he says we're overweight longerterm treasuries underweight shorter term ideally we want no MBS in the future all of this by the way is bullish mortgage rates coming down he says uh the data suggests we are on a firmer trajectory with more downside risks to labor obviously ly there's no risk-free path.
The labor market has softened considerably. The break evens though are way down. So now it just all comes down to you know what that data actually shows. Uh Powell did talk about state level data, ADP level data, uh and potentially the normalization of the beverage curve. Now this I thought was or curve.
This I thought was the most interesting line out of the whole event because Powell says we could be at that moment of that normalization, the start of it right now. And that's something he didn't mention in his prior FOMC meeting. In the prior FOMC meeting, he talked about mixed signals, short live defects from tariffs, low fire, low hire economy.
You know, that was all pretty basic and and cut and dry. the talk that now we might be at the moment where the beverage curve normalizes which means the unemployment rate is going to skyrocket that's a big red flag and I would expect that dovishness to continue from power which is bullish in the short term because it it means big rate cuts you know and and more support from the Fed which is exactly probably why as I said gold is is moving up and 10 years are coming down uh you know people are like crap the Fed's going doubbish means they're about to basically ruin the value of the dollar even more.
Remember, the best way to hedge typically, not personalized financial advice, against the erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar is uh to hold assets. Those assets can be stocks, they could be gold, they could be real estate. Assets are what kick butt uh in uh in inflationary times. And I think that while I don't see major inflation ahead, I think that people believe everything is fine in the economy and Powell's about to go really doubbish.
And so we're going to go from fine economy to basically, you know, stimulative support from the Fed, which is just going to debase the dollar even more and therefore gold up stocks up, right? Uh real estate's go up, too. And you know, it's already been doing really well. you know, I mean, we haven't had a single negative year in certainly the areas where where we've been buying with house hack, uh, which is just crazy with how how high rates have been, right?
So, what does this really mean? Well, it it does leave us scratching our heads saying, okay, well, does this potentially mean PAL's too late and there are real risks brewing? And if those real risks materialize, I mean, obviously the stock market's going to get destroyed, which is scary. Uh, you know, I'm not here to make that video to say like, oh, it's about to get destroyed because we're not really going to get any of the data to indicate that happening, you know, for for weeks because we don't have the jobs done.
So, uh, and I mean, state claims so far fine. At least what you could see, you know, based on unemployment claims on state level. So far, everything seems okay. So, I you know, I'm I'm keeping my fingers crossed that if you're looking to do some trimming, you still have some time here. Uh but, uh anyway, uh that's sort of where my head is.
You know, I I think Pal's going to Pal's going to give us a nice little treat next week. And it's probably just going to keep sending gold up. Uh which is just wild. I mean, 3.6% on a day on gold. I mean, you could you could moon here. Uh and uh and and then it it does beg the question of did we sweep the cockroaches under the rug and and how many left how many are there left?
That's what I'm most worried about. Now we talked about some of the the risks. Uh there are more risks tere were three main risks . Uh we also provided uh some dates on uh the best time I think potentially to do some options rolling uh on certain positions potentially. Obviously could be wrong. Uh we we did on Friday indicate that we were uh bullish the stock market rebounding from some of the drama that we had Thursday.
We're also not enthusiastic about coreweave because core is about to lose 137 and then today it did I mean it didn't do well on Friday didn't do well today. Uh we called that Friday morning before the market opened which is great. Trump tacos obviously fantastic. I know a lot of people are going to focus on CPI this Friday.
I think it's mostly a nothing burger. Uh Tesla earnings Wednesday. I'll probably do an earnings preview video on that. Uh and and then really, you know, a lot of people are going to be analyzing balance sheets at some of these banks, so we'll we'll see. But uh uh you know, so far so good. The trailing stops are doing well.
We'll put it that way. All right, folks. Uh we'll see you in the next one. That's the update today. And uh enjoy your time out there. Goodbye and good luck.
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