저자: 미상발언포함) · 외국인
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미국 재정적자와 36조 달러 부채 문제가 투자자들이 간과하는 핵심 리스크라는 주장. 2025년 1.9조 달러 추가 부채 발생, 2024년 말~2025년 초 미국 10년물 금리가 4~5% 박스권에 머물며 디레버리징 어려움을 지적. 성장률이 3%에 못 미치면 부채 부담이 커지며, 트럼프가 관세 긴장 완화와 금리 인하를 압박하는 배경으로 해석. 예측 근거로 달걀 가격 하락 등 소비 둔화 신호 제시. 전반적으로 미국 채권·금리 상승 리스크 강조.
다듬은 글
and around the Black Sea. 8:00 AM The other fundamental element revolves around what Rifing in Saudi Arabia was discussing yesterday. In other words, we have how that tangle of problems is being untangled, right? Around the trade war, around the fight between Trump and Putin, around the public discussion, although yesterday the public discussion returned again and also around another fundamental element which was the end of the war in Ukraine, towards which we are moving, albeit slowly .
Given all this, why then did the US 10-year inflation data, in addition to yesterday's trading session, perform better than the market expected in terms of a further decrease in inflation? Why in that scenario is the 10-year US Treasury yield still hovering around 4-5%? Why is there no decrease in debt?
Yesterday, Larry Fring from BlackRock, speaking from Saudi Arabia, focused on what is currently the main headache for fund managers. If everything is going so well, why is n't there a reduction in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond? Listen to Rif, we'll explain it. Um, and we're going to have to start focusing on the role of deficits which is not part of any conversation.
and and let's be clear the US deficits are us in the Wall Street Journal 3% growth. Look at what Larry Fink was saying . He says, "It's one of those topics that isn't being discussed enough, it's not gaining the importance it deserves, but in this environment, Larry Finn is hitting the nail on the head .
Look at the 10-year US Treasury yield; it's not around 4%, it 's closer to 4 or 5%. What's causing headaches for some investors? The deficit, the US debt. We 've focused on the idea that there was no problem with the trap relationship, that there was a movement that would eventually bring interest rates down.
That's not happening. The 10-year US Treasury yield isn't going down either. And we have a deficit that will generate $1.9 trillion more debt by 2025. We have over $35 trillion in US debt, and yet there's a part of the equity market that's ignoring it once it sees problems like the trade war. What Larry Finn considers to be the fundamental problem that investors aren't addressing is..." The debt problem is going to become the largest item in the US budget: debt interest payments .
As the RFIN pointed out, in an environment where US growth is not confirmed above 3%, debt reappears as the main problem that should be very clearly on the investor's agenda . Consider this: Larry F. in Saudi Arabia is telling Saudi Arabia what the fundamental element of the problem is. At a time when Donald Trump is closing trade deals, portraying himself as a great American trader, especially for Big Tech, but he has to sell something even bigger than artificial intelligence: debt.
And yet, the RFIN is highlighting that there is a growing, latent problem here that the United States must address immediately. If growth doesn't reach 3%—and I remind you of the latest US economic growth figure, minus 0.3%, the Atlanta GDP now points to 1% growth— then, in that environment, if 3% isn't reached to cover the...
With the increase in debt, how can investors, at a time of mounting debt maturities, put their money into US debt? The mess is enormous, and it's the fundamental reason why Trump has halted the trade war and is easing tensions, hoping that the 10-year US Treasury, which is flat this morning at 447, will begin to pave the way for détente.
What do we have? What we have is a sideways movement over the next six months around the fundamental problem. The United States has a massive debt problem. It's called 36 trillion US debt. And far from what Donald Trump promised us, far from deficit reduction, what we have this year is an increase of 1.9 trillion.
1.9 trillion more debt. Look how it's fluctuating. Around 447, 4469, 0.04. Right now, the 10-year US Treasury, which yesterday also showed a very uncertain movement. If we chart it... Looking back a year, we begin to see that this is the fundamental element surrounding how the tension is in a scenario where no one wants to see under any circumstances why the trade war stopped.
Trade war initiated. Well, sorry, Donald Trump's move to reach the White House. He warns of the trade war. Debt becomes strained around a trade war that would slow growth. The trade war arrives . In that trade war, we begin to see it rise to 4.8%. There, imagine the typical apparatus, right? In which all the screws start flying around 4.8 with their sights set on 5%.
It eases when it sees that in the trade war, investors are holding back and therefore can move towards growth of around 3%. When investors see that the 3% level doesn't exist because it's not currently in that level, the American economy begins to increase the spread again from an area where it had fallen to around 4%.
What does this explain? In an environment of détente, of détente of the... Trade war, and in an environment where all the problems disappear because Trump and his team get very scared , when it comes to understanding that we're going to go down in history if we don't stop this, because we'll be the first to have caused the US and global debt to explode .
And they get very scared, but we're not that far off, are we ? Either he sends a clear message that the US economy is really going to grow at 3%, or look at what investors are starting to do. "Hey, all the problems are over," you think? The thing is, equities are soaring, but there's an element here, a hidden heartbeat that keeps beating around the fundamental problem.
That's the big problem. This drop should have continued to around 3.8, 3.7, especially given the 10-year outlook for interest rates. Why isn't it? Because the United States, whether Donald Trump likes it or not , whether it hurts him or not. It shouldn't hurt Donald Trump, he's not what he used to be.
The United States is on the brink of collapse; its economy is a ticking time bomb that investors haven't forgotten, and Larry F. yesterday rubbed salt in the wound in front of a segment of investors who have to buy US debt. What percentage of foreign investors buy US debt? 35%. It's not just about selling Nvidia chips; they have to sell the debt, or Trump's house of cards will collapse.
And look, because the 30-year US Treasury yield is already at 4.91%, where the debt is starting to show that there's no easing of tensions. Since September, there's been a clear increase that's bringing us closer to a critical point for the US economy. It's heading towards a wall of debt. 7 trillion dollars that it has to refinance and does n't want to refinance at around 4%.
Look at the 4-5% range. Look at the 2-year US Treasury yield, which is still around 4%. 3.99. The 2-year US Treasury yield is in a different league. It doesn't set the tone for the debt as much. Focus on this snapshot of the 10- year US Treasury yield, which is already around 4.47%. So, if the 10-year US Treasury yield moves back towards 4.5%, fears surrounding US debt will return.
Trump needs that 10- year spread below 4%. And far from being below 4%, it's hovering around 4.5%. And the Ring already warned about this yesterday. Be careful, because in this environment there's an element that could explode, which is the US debt, which is 36 trillion US dollars, an absolutely insane amount that you can only sustain because you have a hyper-dynamic economy.
In yesterday's market, we saw both good news and bad news. The good news is that inflation fell 2.3% from the previous 2.4% and the forecast. This is due to the imminent annual effect. But there's a downside. There's another side to the coin. What is it? If inflation is falling in an inflationary environment, it's because a segment of the consumer is slowing down.
They're curbing consumption. If they're curbing consumption, besides the fact that egg prices are falling, right? But if they're curbing consumption, they're also curbing US growth, so it has, or will have, even more difficulty reaching the 3% growth rates needed to cover the increased debt. Look at how much prices are falling, with eggs leading the way.
Eggs are repeated. Well, we'll see that later. The overall figure shows a downward movement of 2.8 to 2.3. A movement that's starting to eliminate [the problem]. That's 2020. We've been dealing with inflation for a few years now . We haven't reached the previous level, or we never will, but we haven't reached it; we're simply returning to the target.
But look, it's been almost five years. Look at the changes in the CPI that I was telling you about. Eggs, so often mentioned by Donald Trump. The price of eggs is falling. The price of eggs is falling. Let's look at the next chart, the one right here. Uh, eggs, down 10% , right? The key sector, automotive equipment, is up with growth exceeding 5%, the entire car and truck rental segment is also growing at 5%.
Uh, the entire utility sector, right? Around gas, growth is between 3 and 5%, a little more. Uh, software and accessories are also around 3%, and the entire housing sector, kitchen appliances, home renovations, is also growing at between 2 and 5%. But some of the infraction sector is also falling. How much is it falling?
Because domestic demand is contracting in the United States. And it's contracting— we're back to the previous point— how in this scenario the growth of the US economy is slowing down, and Trump knows this and he knows what's happening, and that's why he's asking Powell, "Lower interest rates." " Interest." He said it again yesterday.
Look at the following chart. It shows how Trump is pushing the Fed to lower interest rates now, following yesterday's report of weak inflation in the US economy. If you're already at 2.3%, if rates are going to be cut seven times in Europe and you haven't lowered any, why aren't you lowering interest rates?
This would be the fundamental element around which Donald Trump is starting to exert pressure. But why? Because he needs 3% growth. And to achieve that growth, he needs an immediate interest rate cut . He says, "There's no inflation, the prices of gasoline, energy, groceries, and practically everything else have gone down." The Federal Reserve should lower interest rates as Europe and China have done.
What's wrong with Powell arriving too late? It's unfair to the United States. which is ready to bloom, that is, to bring about a significant growth surge around a drop in interest rates. Let everything happen, it will be something wonderful. What is Trump not telling us? Trump is saying that since there is no interest rate cut and growth is below 3%, the US economy will become even more strained .
And what's more, it only has one figure, 5%. So beware of the movement and the hidden danger and damage that the American economy is currently experiencing around the 10- year mark, which is affecting us amidst the general joy of the market. Levels have recovered to those prior to the day of release, haven't they?
The day of the tariffs, but it is marking the path that the United States is either a lame duck or has a situation of being a giant on feet of sand in which at any moment it can see a downward movement. It's not a minor issue surrounding tomorrow's events in Turkey, certainly, but it's not a minor issue because Larry Fink yesterday already drew attention to the fact that you are realizing what is happening with the debt, the danger of the debt and what it can entail as a global debt earthquake, and that we are not putting on the table the picture of what the consequences of entering a debt crisis are.
Forget about 2008. 2008 is nothing, nothing compared to a debt crisis like the one Larry F started to raise yesterday and like the one Donald Trump is starting to see: either they lower interest rates or you're going to put even more pressure on me in 10 years and I'm going to have problems with the maturity of the debt, where I have a wall that I have to refinance of 7 trillion US dollars.
It's not a minor issue. Let's not let the trees prevent us from seeing the forest. 2008 is nothing compared to a debt crisis.
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