저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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관세 2.0(해방의 날 2.0)으로 경제지표에 선행 재고 쌓기 왜곡이 생겨 데이터 발표가 뒤로 밀릴 수 있다. 소비와 고용은 아직 견조해 단기 주식은 상승 여지가 있으나 S&P500은 약 23% 고평가로 보고 트레일링 스탑 유지를 권함. 엔페이즈는 금리 고점과 세액공제 축소로 부정적이나 장기 생존 가능성은 있고, 힘스는 GLP 매출 비중이 커 단기 모멘텀 악화 예상, 장기 낙관하며 40달러 이하 매수 관심. 정치적으로는 푸틴이 협상에 소극적이고 빅 뷰티풀 빌 통과로 재정적자 확대 전망, 패니메이·프레디맥 민영화 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Liberation Day 2.0 is causing some distortions to real economic data. We need to talk about him and hers health along with Trump news updates as well as that big beautiful bill. Folks, let's get started on today's Meet Kevin report. Keep in mind, I'm Meet Kevin, jet pilot, father of seven, and here to bring you value and perspective every single day.
And if any of it ever makes you nervous, just aven.com/life. Paid partner of the channel. You can sign up in as little as 5 minutes. So, Liberation Day 2.0 is now being talked about. And this is kind of crazy because initially I'm like, "All right, here we go. This is just going to be FUD again. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt causing news and markets are just going to look through it, which they probably will." But what's actually interesting is we're probably going to experience a delay in data.
Now, why would I say that? Well, because this morning, not only was CNBC really slow, which was hilarious, this morning in the course member liveream, we covered the S&P manufacturing data at 6:45. We're like, "All right, let's see. This could have an impact here." The data came in great. Okay, it was a beat across the board, which seems like great news.
It took 4 and 1/2 minutes for CNBC to cover it. And there are people in the course member lives that are buying calls because we covered the data instantly. institutions didn't care because people with the institutional data access are like whatever. But as soon as CNBC started talking about it, the cues skyrocketed.
And what I want you to see is what's actually in that data. So what's in that data uh is a report that suggests, hey, you know, prices are definitely rising. And in my opinion, that's going to keep the Fed on pause, but we already knew that. That's old news, right? But what's more interesting is that they basically talk about hey look compared to the whole of the data in April things are as good as they were in March or maybe even going back to the highest since January.
So in other words data on services manufacturing and the composite numbers are better. They're better than the hole that we were in April. This is some form of a rebound. And I got excited about that. I'm like oh that's great. A rebound. That's fantastic. But then I got a little concerned because take a look at one of the comments from uh the economists at this company or you know the S&P Global.
However, both sentiment and output growth remained relatively subdued and at least some of the upturn in May can be linked to companies and their customers seeking to frontr run further possible tariff related issues. most notably the potential for future tariff hikes after the 90-day pauses uh lapse 90-day pause lapses in July.
In particular, concerns over tariff related supply shortages and price rises led to the largest accumulation of input inventories recorded in 18 years. Okay, so in other words, in March, we're like, "Oh my gosh, you need to get ahead of being liberated. Build up inventory." You see companies like Restoration Hardware build up about 3 months worth of inventory and go down to like no cash.
Okay. Well, now companies are like, "All right, we have a pause on Liberation Day. Let's get ahead of the assignment of tariffs." Remember, Donald Trump says, uh, he is going to assign tariffs to any country that does not make a deal with the United States. We already have a 10% base level of tariffs.
Is that potentially going to rise? And how meaningful is that realistically going to be? Is it just a bunch of FUD, fear, uncertainty, and doubt? Well, institutions seem to think that it's actually a reason to short markets. In fact, we're seeing a lot of people circulate this chart here. I want you to know that most of this shorting of the S&P 500 or the highest short interest in the uh NASDAQ 100, you know, the technologies index in the last four years is primarily being driven by hedge funds, which makes sense.
you know, hedge funds, this is what they do in these sort of times. They hedge. But when you actually look at a lot of the forecasts that we have for consumption, consumption so far looks like it might actually hold up, which is good and suggests that, hey, you know, as long as consumers keep spending, then the buildup of inventory makes sense.
Building up of inventory actually just enables lower prices for longer. And so that is a good thing, right? We basically as long as we keep bringing in more data at lower prices, we keep doing well. Now, there are some charts that we want to pay attention to. The number one chart we want to pay attention to, in my opinion, has to do with actual growth.
So far, Goldman Sachs suggests that our growth is still expected to be positive year-over-year. I know this is a little blurry. Uh, and that's mostly because growth in consumption is expected to fall, but still remain positive this year. For example, Goldman Sachs in 2024 said, "We saw consumer spending of about 3.1% of growth." That's expected to decline to just 1.2%.
But that's still positive, right? That works out to about 39% of the growth that we saw in 2024. So, it's definitely a slowdown. Now, does a slowdown matter? No. It only matters to the extent that this second chart stays low. But before we keep going, we've got a message from our sponsor. It's official.
Meet Kevin has finally partnered with a gold company, but . And that's what LE meet Kevin set you. It only matters to the extent that this second chart stays low. And I make this comment regularly. I'm like, so far we haven't really seen a spike in layoffs. And then I get these comments. People are like, "What are you talking about, Kevin?
I just saw announcements that this company like Microsoft is paying off and UPS is paying off and Walmart's laying off. Yeah, that's true. But you have to understand the economy is more than just some of the big recognizable names that you have. And so the easiest way to understand this is by looking at the actual layoff and quits rate.
Quits rates actually increasing is a positive sign for the economy, although it's been trending down for a while. Right here, this is what you want to pay attention to though. the layoff rate, the layoff rate has been very low and stable since 2022, 23, 24, and through 2025. So, until we see an actual spike in the layoff rate like what you saw over here in the great recession, obviously COVID, but just ignore COVID for a moment.
Just look at the great recession or even the elevated levels of layoffs that you saw in the dotcom bubble. You can see we're substantially below the levels of the dotcom bubble and certainly substantially below the highs of what we saw in the great recession. So as long as yes, consumption might be slow as long as we don't get the layoff rate increasing, I don't know, data might not actually turn negative.
Now I personally maintain that we'll know by October, maybe even September because we're going to have the June, July, August data, okay, old news. But what does Liberation Day do? Well, Liberation Day 2.0 know based on this S&P data potentially pushes that back to not overall back like still looking you know October September being sort of your D-day but what it does is it sort of backloads the data it says that data from May that's getting reported in June might be influenced even even data in June that gets reported in July could be influenced by again a front running of tariff 2.0.
Now what does that mean for you like practically what does that mean for you in the short term? Well, in the short term, I mean, stocks could keep going up. Now, remember, a lot of institutions today are saying, look, the S&P 500, uh, based on where we think their earnings are going to be at the end of the year at trading at maybe a 20x multiple are pro is probably overvalued by about 23% today.
So, broadly, the index, you know, for for somebody who's who's trying to look for valuation deals is not in a deal right now. It's in an overvalued state. Does it matter if you're just buy the dip long-term? No, of course not. But if you're somebody who's setting trailing stops right now, who's saying, "All right, look, I've got a lot allocated to stocks.
Maybe I've got margin." You know, maybe your trailing stops are set so that way when your trailing stops hit, you just pay off margin and then you just ride out the wave, right? It's not a bad strategy. I see a lot of people doing that. They ride margin on the upside, but they set trailing stops to protect themselves from a further downside.
And this S&P data, in my opinion, gives me sort of a little bit of a that's interesting. like when are we actually going to get clear data, right? But what all it does is tell you that the Fed's just going to wait even longer to cut rates, which sucks. Now, the S uh JP Morgan reports that they're tactically bullish.
They actually think that we've got resistance around the 6,000 level for the S&P 500, but overall, they think that stocks will breach all-time highs in the near term, especially as we get early June data, which actually lines with some of this S&P global data that we're getting. So I don't disagree with JP Morgan that we could continue to see those all-time highs going forward for the next few weeks.
Hence again stop loss is great unless of course you're investing in like Nphase but everybody knows that investing in Nphase has just been a bad investment as rates being high uh and the actual fundamentals of people wanting to buy uh solar inverters, solar panels, batteries have been very difficult because when rates are high the costbenefit analysis of replacing your utility bill with really high interest rates isn't there.
So it's been really difficult for these solar and energy companies. That said, good margins. Nphase will probably survive this cycle. 2028, you know, the big beautiful bill cuts off the EV tax credits or sorry, the energy credits for uh solar, wind, and batteries sucks for home batteries. That 30% tax credit gets cut off in 2028.
Maybe it leads to sort of a front running of sales, but not when rates are the side. So, you're kind of in like this catch22 where best case scenario for some of these companies is you kind of hope that rates get cut to zero in some form of a panic, but then you need a company that survives the crash and then comes back through a zero interest rate environment.
I think NPhase is a company that can survive the crash, but I mean I can't touch Nphase in this sort of environment. I haven't touched Nphase for a very long time. I mean, even back when it was $100, I'm like, "Oh man, this sucker could go down to 35." And I think it's trading for like 38 right now, which is kind of crazy.
It sucks because it is a great company. Yeah, it's trading for $38 right now. It's crazy. Uh that said, uh what we want to pay attention to macro-wise, uh is is take our time. So far, none of the data looks like it's really going to give us anything bad. So, business as usual. Keep the trailing stops.
Keep chugging along. Now, we do need to talk about HIMS, but only after we remind you that hey, thank you to everybody who invested in House Hack yesterday. We had a surge of y'all investing in House Hack yesterday. Maybe it's something I said yesterday, but appreciate y'all. If you want to invest in the nonacredited round and diversify away to what we're doing with real estate and how we're using it as a downside protection vehicle in in our opinion, uh check out what we do over at house hack.com or just watch my videos uh on house hack.
And again, you can go to houseack.com and see some of the properties that we work on uh and invest. It's open to nonacredited investors. Okay, now we got to talk about HIMS. All right, so HIMS, this is a big one. HIMS is a stock that a lot of people put a lot of enthusiasm into. To me, it feels like it's a stock that has the enthusiasm of sort of like a GameStop or an AMC.
And so, we've been covering the fundamentals of this stock quite a bit in our course member liveream. And today, I'm going to reveal some of the data points t talk on social media about how HIMS is much more than a GLP company and a weight loss drug company. And I agree it is much more. The problem that's happening with HIMS is twofolded.
One is valuation wise and number two is how much do GLPs affect revenues? That's the question. So let's look at some data points and try to put some understanding on on HIMS. So first him as of February uh 20 25 has 400,000 subscribers. Only 10% of their subscribers are on GLPS. of those subscribers about 25% so 100,000 are seniors and only 7% of those seniors are on GLPs.
So a very very small percentage of their subscriber base again like one in 10 are actually on GLPs which means the vast majority of him subscribers are not on GLP. So every time this bad GLP news comes out and the stock goes down, people on social media are like, "Oh my gosh, but but you know, repeat after me.
Hims is more than a GLP1 company and the Sigma signing deal with Novo and Lily, Eli Liy does not change the long-term thesis." Fine. Okay. But let's look at the actual facts and the numbers. So what we have to understand is back in February, the FDA issued a uh 60 to 90day grace period for GLP compounding exemptions.
Uh, basically the thesis here was that HIMS would be able to continue to get some revenue, but they're going to lose some of their GLP revenue. Now, how much do their GLP customers pay? Well, their GLP customers used to pay $199 per month. That's compared to a 40 a 35 to 40. It was about $35 to $55 normal HIMS plan.
Okay, so take an average there. $45 for a normal HIMS user, $200 for a GLP user. Well, dang. This means that GLP users are worth 4x what a normal user is worth back when they were able to sell these subscriptions at 199. Well, if GLP users are about 10% of the company, they could actually be about 25 to 40% of the revenue.
That's what we speculated back in February when they were at all-time highs. And I'm like, uh, you know, there's trading for, you know, over three and a half peg right now. It's a little rich. And sure enough, the stock sold off. But now we're kind of near back to some of the all-time highs. And I don't have any shorts against him or whatever.
I actually think it's a great company. I think it's great what they're doing. But let's understand some of the numbers that we just got out of their recent earnings call. So fast forward to May 22 and HIMS tells us that 50% of their year-over-year Q1 subscription growth uh you know is is what the company saw overall, which is great.
But 30% revenue growth excluding GLPS. All right. All right. So, this, let me rephrase that. They grew subscribers by 50% year-over-year. Great. The business is booming, but their revenue only grew 30%. That's interesting. Now, if revenue per customer was flat year-over-year, this would suggest that GLP customers are responsible for potentially as much as 40% of the company's revenue.
Because if you had an equal revenue, that is if every subscriber gave Hims as much money, you would expect 50% more HIMS users, 50% more revenue. But when we excluded GLPs, we lost 20 percentage points. Okay? Well, out of 50% that works out to 40% of their revenue coming from GLPs. That's a really big number.
But it actually gets worse because then in their earnings call, their last earnings call, they actually say that HIM's revenue per customer was up to $84 in Q1, which was up 50% year-over-year. So, their revenue per customer wasn't flat. It was actually elevated in Q1. Well, that's not great because the reason it was elevated in Q1 was because they were still able to sell the 199 GLP plan.
Now they're selling the $4.99 Nova Nordis plan, but when they're asked about margins for the Novon Nordis plan, they don't actually imply that they're going to get much margin at all for the GLP business. That means most of that $499 is probably going to Nova Nordisk, which means that yes, HIMS is a subscription growing company, but is not a company that is going to see as much juicy revenue uh you know, net income increases in the future because of these sort of GLP loss, but they could use GLP's in my opinion as sort of a net re sort of net income neutral driver of business.
So in other words, if you want to sign up for GLPS through HIMS, great. Even if HIMS doesn't make money, you might sign up for another product, you know, hair loss or eczema product or whatever, right? So it's still a great business driver of clientele to the HIMS business model. But this whole GLP fiasco really does suck because it probably represents in excess of 40% of their previous revenues and potentially net income.
markets are going to have to discount for that and that could hurt the short-term momentum that the stock has. Now, I would argue that by the end of the year, we'll actually have realistic numbers on net income for what HIMS is going to get and that's potentially a better entry point for Hims. So, what I mean by that is if HIMS falls, because I don't really think it's like a screaming deal right now.
I like I love the company, don't get me wrong. I just don't think it's a great deal right now. if it falls by the end of the year because people are like, "Oh my gosh, why is the net income falling so much?" Because of the GLPs. Okay. Uh so if we look at the GLPS uh and the current forecast, current Wall Street forecasts are about a dollar of expected earnings by the end of the year.
56 divided by a dollar puts us at 56 times earnings. Growth rate for the next four years is about 18%. 56 divided by 18 puts us about 3.1 peg. I would put him at probably closer to a two three peg. So at 18% growth and uh a two three peg at a dollar of earnings. I'll buy I would buy him under 40 which I think they'll be an opportunity again.
Honestly, it could probably go back into the 20s. Uh and and that's where it starts getting really desirable and and like if it for whatever reason fell under the 20s, it's honestly it starts getting to like a Warren Buffett style discount. It starts looking really good. So short-term bearish, long-term bullish, they just got to like equalize this mess.
It's kind of like a big wake wave came and hit the boat and it's like, you know, but overall I actually think that the business is booming. It's a great business. Uh but yeah, unfortunately a good chunk of their revenue and net income, again, probably somewhere between 25 to 50%. is is going to be from GLPS.
And I don't think the GLPS they sell now are a competitive anymore because the Sigma, which hurts a little bit, Sigma now selling them for $200 a month, which is what HIMS used to sell them for at $199 a month, but now HIMS has to sell it for $4.99 a month. So you kind of have like you don't really have a good leader of customer attraction anymore.
So that's why I say let this sucker play out for the next 6 months. Uh, I think you've got potentially negative momentum coming and in that fear when people sort of capitulate on it, that's where I would be a buyer of it. So, that's my take on him. Okay, quick politics update. Donald Trump uh, look, Donald Trump realizes that Putin doesn't really want to negotiate anymore.
Okay, this is now just blatant. Putin wants this war to keep going because he builds relationships with China, Iran, and North Korea. They're able to basically strengthen the axis against the United States. This has never been about Ukraine and the minerals and the oil. This is what people say it's about.
That's fine. That's too basic. This has always been about a US versus Russia. So Putin's likely to keep this war going. Even though Donald Trump said that the tone and spirit of the conversation was excellent. If it wasn't, I would say so now. That's fine. Putin's spirit is always great. Remember the Duck Tucker Carlson interview that we covered live?
That video got like 2 million views. When we covered that live, what did we hear? We heard actually a very kind of like nice and pleasant Putin. Like you could sit down with him and like have a coffee with him and feel totally comfortable, which is crazy because he's like a murderous dictator, right?
But but he's got that like sales pizzazz. Uh you know, he seems very very cordial. But the problem is Putin's POV is very heavily reliant on the denoxification of Ukraine, which is really just a euphemism for we're going to do everything to fight the United States because they support Israel. I I I know that's like ironic, but that's the whole irony of all of this, okay?
It's like, wait, wait, if you're trying to denazify the Nazis were like fighting the Jews, we should it's it's crazy, but I think that's exactly what's going on. People are welcome to have their different opinions, but this has always been about US versus Russian interests, always. And the more instability there is in the Middle East and the weaker Israel is, the stronger some of the Middle Eastern partners such as Iran, who was a friend of Russia, therefore Israel is anti-Russ, right?
Like Putin's denazification campaign is just marketing, but that's not what they're truly doing. They're trying to fight and weaken the United States and keep the United States distracted and at odds with countries in the Middle East. They love it when we have problems. This trade war feeds right into Putin's hands.
So, you know, they're militarizing their economy and they can kind of keep going. In fact, reports are that Putin actually believes he's winning. Now, they do expect to hold lower level talks with the Vatican in June, which is great, but you know, TBD. In terms of other politics, some quick lastminute changes that went through the big beautiful bill.
Medicare work requirements are expected to come as soon as December of 2026. That is moved up from 2029. Ending the wind solar battery tax credits by 2028. It's not great obviously for the Tesla energy division and face solar edge and otherwise. 40k salt up from 30k in prior plan. Uh this was mostly done to appease the Republicans in New York and New Jersey.
No registration requirements for suppressors. 12 billion dollars going to border states for their security test. Uh indoor tanning tax would stay. Nuclear energy tax would be expanded. A tax break. Uh bills expected to increase the budget deficit by $2.7 trillion over a decade over the next four years.
people call it budget neutral. Uh and the Congressional Budget Office says this benefits uh or or this cuts benefits to the bottom 10% while providing more benefits to those in the top 10%. At the same time, Donald Trump and this has been something that's been quietly talked about around in the Trump campaign.
So, a lot of insiders have been playing this trade. Donald Trump has finally publicly talked about privatizing Fanny Freddy, you know, Fanny May, Freddy Mack. I don't know how that will affect the 30-year mortgage. I don't feel great about that. But I do know that these companies produce a lot of cash flow.
Most of the cash flow has been going to the government. So by privatizing them, these would actually become yield bearing instruments. That's why the stock has been skyrocketing. And it's totally logical. Will it actually happen? I don't know. Donald Trump lately has been a big fan of promises made, promises kept.
So, you know, kind of implies that it's actually pretty likely to happen. So, this gives you an overview of what the heck is going on in the world today. If you liked it, make sure to subscribe to the channel. Consider checking out Houseack. Get your life insurance at me.com/life. And of course, thank you to our Ultier Capital sponsor today. Diversify to Gol.
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