저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
외국 중앙은행이 음의 실질금리(인플레가 금리를 상회)를 피해 미국채 대신 금을 매입 중이라고 주장. 1970년대 금값 상승은 금 가치 상승이 아니라 달러 가치 하락의 결과라고 설명. 현재 고용 지표는 전일제 감소·시간제 증가로 약한 노동시장의 신호이며 Fed가 인플레 잡기에 나서면 큰 경기침체와 자산시장 폭락, 사회보장·국채이자 부담으로 디폴트 위험이 생긴다고 경고.
다듬은 글
you you buy gold as an alternative to US dollars or US treasuries foreign central banks are selling their dollars and buying gold and why are they doing that they're foregoing the interest that they could otherwise earn on treasuries to own a non-interest uh bearing asset like gold well the main reason to do that is if you believe inflation is going to be higher than that interest rate that means you have a negative yield and you're going to lose purchasing power if you stay in dollars or in treasuries and so they are selling and they are buying gold look the price of gold uh in the 1970s went from $35 an ounce to over 800 right that that's not a coincidence that that happened during the year or the decade of all this inflation uh and what gold is doing but it wasn't gold that was going up it was the dollar that was going down like for example oil prices in 1970 were about $3 a barrel in 1980 they were $30 a barrel but the difference was in 1970 we paid in gold in 1980 we paid in paper and so it wasn't that the oil price was going up it's the money that we were using to buy oil was losing value and so we had to pay more dollars to buy the same barrel of oil I mean that's why you mentioned um women working this was my comment on on women you know in the workforce Peter Schiff delves into the dynamics of investing in gold as an alternative to US dollars or treasuries particularly in the context of inflationary pressures shiff elucidates the rationale behind foreign central banks preference for gold over treasuries despite foregoing interest earnings he argues that this shift is indicative of a negative yield scenario where inflation is anticipated to outpace interest rates eroding purchasing power drawing parallels with historical inflationary periods such as the 1970s Schiff highlights how the rising price of gold mirrored the depreciation of the dollar he emphasizes that inflation during that era necessitated additional household income driving many women into the workforce not out of choice but Financial necessity shiff further explores the consequences of prolonged monetary policies aimed at curbing economic downturns pointing out that each attempt to mitigate the Fallout from Market Corrections ultimately exacerbates underlying issues he predicts Al looming Crossroads where the Federal Reserve must choose between fighting inflation potentially triggering a severe recession or allowing inflation to spiral out of control jeopardizing the Dollar's status as the resered currency the main reason that so many women entered the workforce during the 1970s was inflation eroded away the value of their husband's paychecks and so because in inflation caused the husband's uh paycheck to lose so much purchasing power his wife had to get a job to make up the difference now part of it was also Rising taxes there was a lot of bracket creep during the 70s where inflation pushed people into higher brackets but it's not like oh women were just all liberated and all wanted to work they were liberated when they didn't have to work they got forced to work because it was the only way to pay the bills now the comment I made more recently is that that that's how we basically got through that time period we had a spare laborer we had somebody who could come off the bench onto the field and help out and that's how families were able to survive because they now had a second bread winner but now uh you don't have that because most families the husband and wife already work so what are people doing now how are people surviving this inflation well look at the jobs reports that we get every month we have all these jobs that are being created 200,000 300 000 what they don't tell you is these are all part-time jobs we are net losing full-time jobs and they're going to people who already have jobs so people are working second and third jobs Moonlighting is at an all-time high in America because that's the only way that people can pay pay the rent or or put food on the table people don't want these jobs the creation of these jobs is not a good sign it's a bad sign it's not a sign of a strong labor market it's a weak labor market in a strong labor market you can make it on one job in a weak labor market you need two or three jobs and that's what's going on we have to appreciate the fact that really in Earnest it started in 2001 2002 after the uh the dotom bubble burst right that's when the FED first lowered rates to 1% I mean Greenspan made a lot of policy errors in the 9s as well and that's kind of why the the stock market bubble got as big as it did uh but the policies really uh you know went to you know the sublime in uh in 01 and 02 with the rate cuts that gave way to the housing bubble which led to the 08 financial crisis Peter Schiff is really adamant that every time the Federal Reserve messes up it's like they refuse to let the market heal itself he's convinced that when there's a boom it's because of mistakes being made and the bust is supposed to correct those mistakes but instead of letting that happen the FED caves to political pressure and tries to stop recessions from occurring according to shiff this just makes the problem worse because they end up creating more inflation which only delays the inevitable pain now he's saying we're at a crucial point where the FED has to make a tough decision they can either try to fight the inflation they caused with all their quantitative easing and balance sheet expansion or they can just let it keep going it's like they're stuck between between a rock and a hard place and whichever option they choose there are going to be serious consequences but to do that means interest rates have to go much higher than they already are they have to go high enough to force massive Cuts in spending on the government level and on the household level but our whole economy is based on spending right now it's a bubble and so they have to create a massive recession it's not that recessions are necessary to fight inflation it's just what's necessary to fight inflation will also cause a recession because of this the underlying nature of the economy and this recession which will have a housing market crash a stock market crash will result in a wave of defaults and failures there can't be any bailouts like we did in 08 so when a bank fails they can't bail it out they have to let it fail and they have to allow the depositors to lose money there's no money to bail out the depositors they have to lose um the government has to people on Social Security and Medicare we just don't have the money to make the payments we're not talking about making cuts for people in the future the cuts we're the checks we're sending out right now we don't have enough money we got to we got to make those smaller right Social Security the trust funds so-called trust funds are already selling treasuries right now Social Security already takes in less than it puts out it's bank it's insolvent um so the Govern has to tell government pensioners we can't make the pensions because we're broke we actually have about a $3 trillion a year deficit right now maybe closer to four I mean even if they massively increase taxes on the middle class I don't think there's there's enough they could do it so they have to make these deep cuts to government spending and of course that's going to be very problematic for people who were counting on social security or who lost their Savings in the bank in fact if the FED really fights inflation we probably can't pay the interest on the national debt because right now we're spending about a trillion dollars a year on interest on the national debt If the Fed let's say raised interest rates to where they need to be given the short-term nature of the debt within a few years we could be spending three or four trillion on interest on the debt which can consume 100% of tax revenue and of course we can't cut Social Security cut Medicare right and pay the Chinese 100 cents on the dollar I mean that's just not going to fly so we would have to default we would have to tell our creditors we can't pay you what we owe you well maybe we'll pay you you know some discounted rate so all these difficult things are going to have to happen if the FED really does what it needs to do Peter Schiff paints a grim picture of the potential consequences if the Federal Reserve were to take decisive action against inflation he argues that such action would necessitate drastic Cuts in government spending a move that would Ripple through various sectors of society for those dependent on programs like Social Security or those who have lost their savings due to bank failures these Cuts would pose significant challenges potentially leaving many vulnerable individuals without vital support Schiff further warns that if the FED were to raise interest rates in an attempt to combat inflation the resulting increase in interest payments on the national debt could spiral out of control this scenario could lead to a situation where a substantial portion of tax revenue is consumed by servicing the debt leaving little room for other essential government functions ultimately shiff suggests this could force the government into a position where it is unable to meet its Financial Obligations potentially leading to defaults on payments to creditors however Schiff acknowledges the political realities that make implementing such austerity measures difficult He suggests that policy makers May ultimately choose to avoid the pain of deep spending cuts by allowing inflation to persist while this may provide temporary relief shiff argues that it would only serve to exacerbate the problem in the long run leading to Runaway inflation that erodes the value of the dollar and undermines its status as the global Reserve currency in this scenario shiff predicts widespread losses for Bond holders and government creditors including individuals holding dollars as the real value of their Investments is eroded by inflation overall shift's analysis paints a bleak picture of the potential consequences of the the Federal Reserve response to inflation suggesting that tough choices lie ahead for policymakers and individuals alike
Comments 0