저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
경제 지표와 실적 전반이 약화되어 외환·주식시장에 반영되고 있다. 금광주는 금 조정 대비 덜 빠져 심리 전환 신호로 보며, 방어주(담배·소비재) 강세로 가치주 로테이션이 진행 중이다. 연준이 9월 등 다음 회의에서 금리 인하(25~50bp 가능성)할 것으로 예상하고 금 매수 기회로 본다. 엔화 강세·호주달러 약세는 연착륙 기대 후퇴와 경기침체 우려를 시사한다. 제조업은 바이든 집권기 내내 침체였고 실질적으로 경기침체 상태라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
so the economy is is weak you can see it in the economic data you can see it in the earnings and so now it's showing up in the foreign exchange markets it's showing up in the stock market overall the dollar was relatively flat on the week gold had one big down day yesterday was down about 50 bucks or something uh it recovered about $20 today so it finished a week down half a percent so not that much that knocked the gold stocks down about 2 and a half% so I think the sentiment is turning I think there is some some buying coming in because gold stocks are value stocks they're defensive stocks welcome to Smart money where we dive into the latest economic Trends and Market movements today we're seeing clear signs of economic weakness reflected in data and earnings reports impacting foreign exchange and stock markets the dollar held steady while gold saw a volatile week dropping $150 before recovering $120 ending down half a perc this led to a 2.5% decline in Gold stocks hinting at a shift in sentiment as investors seek value and defensive plays with speculation growing that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September renowned Economist Peter skiff views the recent dip in gold prices as a buying opportunity the EC economic landscape shows a cooling Trend with consumer spending slowing especially among low and middle income groups the upcoming fed decisions and Market reactions are critical points to watch as navigate these uncertain times now let's jabber into the details is is weak you can see it in the economic data you can see it in the earnings and so now it's showing up in the foreign exchange markets it's showing up in the stock market overall the dollar was relatively flat on the week gold had one big down day yesterday it was down like 50 bucks or something uh it recovered about $20 today so it finished a week down half a percent so not that much that knocked the gold stocks down about two and a half percent I think in the face of yesterday's selloff when gold was down about 1 and a half% in one day the gold stocks weren't down that much they were down two two and a half% so you know I remember days that gold was down 1 and a half% the gold stocks were down 6% uh so I think the sentiment is turning I think there is some some buying coming in because gold stocks are value stocks they're defensive stocks they should be bought but you know I noticed a lot of the stocks that I own that are defensive in our portfolio tobacco stocks British American tobacco made a 52 we High today um uh Consumer Staples Unilever another stock in our portfolio good earnings up I think about 8% the last two days closed the week with a new 52- we high so some of these stocks that we have in our managed accounts and our mutual funds that are defensive in nature uh were were um hitting new 52e highs that's why even though gold stocks got beaten up pretty hard this week and we have gold stocks in my value fund and my uh um value fund my dividend payer fund both those funds outperformed on the week both the funds were positive even as the S&P went down because of the gains uh in the defensive stocks as we're getting this rotation out of uh momentum into value now the question is how much longer is the Fed going to sit on the sidelines and allow this scenario to play out I don't think much longer I think there's a lot of pressure building now on the FED to cut rates and maybe not even a 25 basis point cut maybe we'll get a 50 basis point cut uh at the next meeting um because if they don't cut at the next meeting now you're really kind of getting closer to the election and there may be some pressure on the FED oh you can't cut you know this is just political of course if they cut now I think that's political too but I do believe uh as all fed chairmans do they owe their allegiance to the last guy that appointed them which in the case of pal is is is Biden even though Trump initially put him up on as fed share Biden renewed his term and the the Democrats are the incompass and even though Biden isn't even running for re-election Harris is I think he's still a team player unfortunately despite all the talk about fed independent so I think the time for pal to do a politically opportunistic rate cut is at the very next meeting and I think he has enough data this phony data that he could hide behind to try to justify uh the rate cut you know he can say that you know the inflation rates are down they're down 2 and a half% which you know that's close enough it's not quite 2% but you know we're almost there we're on a Glide path uh he could see the uptick and Unemployment uh the increasing number of of of weekly claims and all the other weak data and he could say look you know we need to be uh get ahead of this we need to you know move with the rate cut so I think there's a very good chance we'll get that rate cut and maybe that will change the Dynamics in the market but I think without a rate cut if pal keeps claiming that no we're going to be vigilant uh everything is great the economy is strong we're going to keep rates High the Japanese Yen saw a notable Rally from its 30 to 35e low strengthening significantly to close the week at currencies while the Australian dollar weakened substantially dropping consistently throughout the week this decline in the Australian dollar which is often tied to global economic growth due to Australia's commodity exports suggests growing concerns about a potential Global slowdown investors are increasingly shifting from risk on assets like the Australian dollar toes the Yen indicating a broader expectation of a recession this shift is part of a larger Trend as investors move away from the soft Landing narrative Embrace for more significant economic challenges manufacturing data has been weaker than anticipated with the sector remaining in a recessionary state the Biden presidency this has been highlighted by recent reports that consistently fall short of expectations contradicting claims of a manufacturing boom as the economic landscape softens speculation is mounting that the Federal Reserve might consider lowering interest rates this possibility fueled by a cooling economic environment and softer than expected inflation reports Economist Peter skiff has pointed to the recent dip in in gold prices as a strategic buying opportunity he emphasizes that gold stocks have remained resilient despite fluctuations in the broader Market a rate cut could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold making it a more attractive investment and potentially weakening the dollar which would further support gold prices as investors closely watch the Federal Reserves next moves any signal towards a rate cut could lead to increased volatility across financial markets impacting everything from gold prices to stock valuations the evolving economic landscape and the actions of the Federal Reserve remain crucial focal points for Market participants as they navigate these uncertain times we saw a rather sharp rally in the Beaten Down Japanese Yen the Japanese Yen was sitting at I know 30 30 to 35 year low or something like that the end got up to 161 and when I say up I mean down because you could buy 161 Japanese Yen for a single dollar and again you haven't been able to buy that many Yen for your dollar in about 35 years and we had a a big rise in the yen I didn't hear anything about Bank of Japan intervention it's always possible that that was going on behind the scenes I don't know but the Yen closed the week at 153 and 34 that was a huge move for the Japanese Yen it took some poll on Japanese stocks uh they got beat up uh pretty bad with a strong Yen uh from the perspective of a US dollar investor was probably push right the the Yen went up uh Japanese stocks went down so in dollar terms there wasn't much action but there was certainly a lot of action in in Japan but at the same time that the Japanese Yen was moving up the Swiss frank also had a pretty good gain against the Euro and other currencies and on the flip side the weakest of the major currencies was the Australian dollar just got clobbered um pretty much relent down every day except it gained a little bit back today I forget what it dropped on the week maybe 2 3% but that's against the dollar much bigger drop against the Japanese Yen and I think a lot of the trading was spread trading I think that people were uh unwinding some bets that they had made maybe long the Australian dollar and short the end and the reason this is significant is normally when you see Yen buying and aie dollar selling it's because investors or Traders are looking for a slower economy because the yen is perceived as a safe haven even though there's really not much safety in the Japanese Yen at this point but it is still a riskof kind of currency a funding currency and a riskof currency and the Aussie dollar is more of a risk on because Australia you know their main export is raw material you know Iron Ore uh energy stuff like that that's the kind of goods that you know you need when your economy is strong particularly the Chinese economy China Imports a lot of raw materials that it incorporates into its manufacturing process and so if you think there's going to be a global slowdown there's going to be less demand for goods raw materials to make the goods and so you see weakness in the Australian dollar What's Happening Here is in investors are starting to price out the soft Landing hypothesis and they're bracing for a hard landing and a hard Landing meaning a recession now of course I think we're in a recession certainly manufacturing has been in a recession pretty much for the entirety of the Biden presidency which is why it makes me so mad every time I hear Joe Biden talk to the extent that he can talk uh and he talks about the booming economy how great manufacturing is of course Trump said the same thing and it wasn't true when Trump said it and it's not true when Biden says it but manufacturing has been terrible and all the manufacturing data that came out this week was all bad right everything was worse than expected uh so uh the the manufacturing's been in a recession I think the whole economy is in a recession it's just not officially in one because the numbers aren't accurate but I think that investors are bracing for an official recession
Comments 0