저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인과 밈코인은 실질 가치가 없어 붕괴 가능성이 크며, 장기적으로 법정화폐 달러도 신뢰 상실로 큰 폭 가치하락할 수 있다는 주장. 암호화폐 비판: 일론 머스크 트윗 한 번에 가격이 급변하는 조작 취약성을 지적하고, 도지코인처럼 농담으로 시작한 코인도 비트코인과 본질적 차이가 없다고 주장. 비트코인 가치 논리: 비트코인은 생산적 기능이나 실사용처가 없고 '더 큰 바보에게 비싸게 파는' 투기 수요에만 의존하므로 기대가 꺾이면 급락한다고 봄. 투자 원칙으로는 원금 회수 후 남은 물량만 보유하고 퇴직금 같은 자금은 넣지 말라고 권고. 법정화폐 개념: 금·은 본위제 하의 화폐는 실물 가치에 기반했으나, 1971년 금본위 폐지 후 연준권 화폐는 신뢰(믿음)에만 의존하는 불환지폐가 됐다고 설명. 세금 납부와 일상 거래가 강제되어 가치 유지가 가능하다고 봄. 달러 붕괴 전망: 달러가 90% 가치 하락해도 완전히 0이 되는 것은 아니라고 단서를 달며, 1971~1980년 사이 달러가 독일마르크·스위스프랑·엔화 대비 약 70%, 금 대비 90% 이상 하락한 선례를 근거로 듦. 당시 폴 볼커의 금리 20% 인상과 레이건의 긴축·감세 정책이 하락을 멈췄다고 설명. 현재 우려: 현재 물가가 당시보다 높고 악화 중인데도, 연준이 2%도 올리기 힘든 상황에서 20% 금리 인상이 가능한지, 바이든 행정부 하에서 레이건식 해법이 나올 수 있는지 회의적. 한번 열린 상처는 멈추기 어렵다고 주장. 출연자 전망 요약: 비트코인 1~3개월 단기 하락 가능성 및 장기 붕괴 가능성, 달러 장기 약세 전망, 금 선호 입장.
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to me the scariest part about cryptocurrency is that how easily it could be manipulated by one individual completely legally like one tweet from elon musk sends this currency into unheard directions and i remember a friend of mine who's really into cryptocurrency uh investment he was telling me about how after elon musk who initially was like the the crypto darling because tesla started to accept bitcoin when he announced that uh when he announced that they're no longer the tesla's no longer taking bitcoin uh all these new coins started to pop up one of which caught was called [ __ ] elon musk it's an actual cryptocurrency called [ __ ] elon musk like i said when it comes to these so-called investments like the [ __ ] elon musk coin or for example the dogecoin which started out as a joke which suddenly because of all the hype around it doubling tripling 10 times the value within a couple of days it just makes me take a step back and say i don't see any intrinsic value in these so-called investments or even assets for that matter so i just chose to kind of sit it out now me financially i'm okay like i have i have a good amount you know in my investment portfolios where i'm not trying to double triple my money my my main goal is to maintain what i have and to slowly grow it i'm not trying to to flip my money really quick but i can understand for someone who is making 30 000 a year and they're saying seeing this as the way to get out of those financial conditions very quickly how tempting it is to throw money that they may not even have into these very scary investments and ultimately i think it's not going to work out for 99 of the people out there yeah get rich quick schemes rarely do and you know a lot of the young people think us older guys are just a bunch of fools because we don't get it but the reality is we've been around and we've we've seen this and you know this is not new right just because uh the the technology is new it doesn't mean that dynamic isn't old i mean i've seen these things come and go and when you think you're going to get rich quickly you generally end up going broke and you know the biggest joke about the whole thing is when you look at a dogecoin that was started as a joke it literally is no different than any of the ones that were started not as a joke i mean there's really no difference substantively between dogecoin and bitcoin but all the bitcoin guys make fun of dogecoin because they say it was a joke they don't get the joke because bitcoin is a joke too i mean that's why it was created to show how easy it is to replicate bitcoin just because it has a different name what difference does that make it's still a cryptocurrency i mean it has the same utility as bitcoin which is zero you know it doesn't have any actual value it's not an asset like a stock or a bond or a piece of property that generates income it's not a commodity like gold that could be used in industry it's nothing it can't be used for anything all you can do is collect it and why do people collect them not because they you know they're beautiful to look at but because they think they can sell the collection to a greater fool at a higher price and sure it works for a while until the bubble drops and a lot of people get caught holding the bag and i would hope that the listeners to your podcast aren't among them so you know if you happen to own bitcoin sell at least sell enough to get your money back so that you're gambling with the house's money and so that if you lose it's it's just the funny money that you lose but don't put any real money into it don't put your retirement money into it uh the only money should be there is the money that you would take to a casino and that you're willing to lose it all not the money that you want to invest that you want to keep safe and grow over time none of that money belongs in the crypto casino well a lot of people when it comes to their views on bitcoin they refer to fiat currencies which is something you've mentioned recently explain to everyone what a fiat currency is sure so there's two types of currencies there's legitimate currency and then there's a fiat currency so a legitimate currency derives its value from the money that backs it up so at one time u.s currency was backed by gold in fact the dollar was defined as a weight of gold or silver so a dollar was actually silver or gold now the government and eventually the federal reserve began issuing currency that was basically an iou for gold so that the the first federal reserve note said this federal reserve note is redeemable in real money gold or silver and if you had a you know a ten dollar bill it didn't just say ten dollars on it it said this note is payable on demand payable to the bearer on demand ten dollars so the currency was an iou for money the money was gold and silver which were dollars now so when when people want real currency what gives it value is not the fact that it's a piece of paper what gives it value is that you can turn that piece of paper in for actual gold for actual money now when the government basically abrogated those promises and went off the gold standard they repudiated the promise to pay money for federal reserve notes and federal reserve notes became a fiat currency and what a fiat currency means is the currency is backed up by nothing and so what gives a fiat currency value because real currency derives its value from the gold and silver that backs it up fiat currency derives its value from faith people accept fiat currency because they believe that other people will accept it now the government helps to drive that faith because if you want you know you have to pay your taxes in in fiat currency so if you don't want to go to jail like my dad you better collect that fiat currency to give it to the u.s government every year because they demand it uh but also you know we have a whole system where you want to buy anything you want to buy food you need dollars you want to pay your rent your landlord wants dollars you know you want to pay interest on your mortgage the bank wants dollars you know everything is in dollars so that creates you know a used culture for the dollar and people also have confidence that you know they if they have dollars they're not going to lose their value overnight now people know they're going to lose their value slowly over time which is why you don't just keep a bunch of dollars under your mattress but you know you're not worried about your bank account collapsing in value between the time you you deposit your paycheck and the time you pay your rent so you know it works to that degree but the problem with bitcoin is that it it's really a fiat you know cryptocurrency in that bitcoin derives its value from faith it's just like people have faith in the dollar they have faith in bitcoin uh and i think eventually faith in the dollar is going to go away but i think faith in bitcoin can go away much sooner because it's far more tenuous because there's really nothing you can do with your bitcoin the grocer doesn't want bitcoin your landlord doesn't want bitcoin the government doesn't take bitcoin for taxes it's just speculators who want bitcoin and they only want it because they think the price is going to go up but when they stop thinking the price is going to go up they're not going to want it and then no one's going to want it and then the price crashes well i mean when you mention the us is a fiat currency in 2021 are there any countries that don't have fiat currency no they're they're all fiat and in fact you know up until 1971 what happened is a lot of these currencies were backed by dollars right and the dollar was backed by gold but before brent woods right before we you know made this deal with the world and before roosevelt basically took us off the gold standard initially or diminished it in 1933 all the world's currencies were backed by gold so we used to have a sound monetary system now we have an unsound system based on fiat that's why we have all these problems that's why we have all these imbalances that's why we have all these bubbles that pop that's why you have central banks with zero percent interest rates or negative interest rates they're trying to keep this dying system alive but it is so polluted and so corrupted the free market that we're dealing with these adverse consequences one of them is this big disparity now between the very rich and everybody else this would not occur under legitimate capitalism but it is happening under this fiat based uh system that we have well you've said i think it was on joe rogan that the dollar will implode and i'll be honest that that's not a little crazy to me i mean in my lifetime seeing the dollar actually implode my entire investment savings account suddenly be worth nothing i i personally don't see it do you really think in your lifetime you'll see the dollar implode well whether it goes to zero uh that that's that's a that's a you know a question i maybe maybe not right but let's say the dollar loses 90 of its value right that doesn't mean it's worthless but it's worth 10 cents you know relative to what it's worth today now go back to the 1970s when we first moved off the gold standard in 1971 during the ensuing nine years the dollar lost 70 percent of its value relative to the deutsche mark the swiss franc the japanese yen it lost better than 90 percent of its value in terms of gold because gold went from 35 an ounce to 800.
so we already saw that during our lifetime and what stopped that what stopped the bleeding it was the combination of paul volcker raising interest rates to 20 percent and ronald reagan uh with not only supporting the fed with that tight money policy but also trying to move the country you know towards smaller government and less regulation and a and a lower tax system so you had you know that type of combination do you see that happening again if the dollar starts to fall again the way it did in the 1970s if inflation starts to spiral again the way it did then and it's already higher now than it was and it's and it's getting worse how could the federal reserve possibly take interest rates to twenty percent when they couldn't even take them to two percent how are we going to get another ronald reagan when we just elected a joe biden i mean the country is so different than it was i don't see how it's even possible to stop the bleeding once the wound opens up
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