저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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비트코인은 장기적으로 폰지 사기의 현대판 같은 투기 버블이며 결국 붕괴할 것이라는 주장. 과거 비트코인 투자 기회를 놓친 것을 후회한다고 말하지만, 실제로 보유했던 비트코인은 비밀번호 분실로 접근 불가가 되었다고 설명. 비트코인의 위험 요소로 비밀번호 분실 시 복구 불가, 해킹·도난 시 회수 불가를 강조. 은행 카드 도난과 달리 보상받을 수 없다고 지적. 가격이 10만 달러까지 오르더라도 결국 0으로 붕괴하면 매도하지 않은 투자자가 손해를 본다는 논리. 비트코인을 과거 튤립 버블과 비교하며, 향후 연구 대상으로 비트코인과 암호화폐가 자리잡을 것이라고 전망.
다듬은 글
uh okay well at one point you actually did buy some bitcoin and then in january 19th of last year you said that your bitcoin wallet got corrupted and your password no longer works so essentially your whole investment is worthless well that's partially correct i didn't i never bought any of those bitcoin they had been gifted to me right some people had gifted me and i didn't even have a whole bitcoin right i had like a third of a bitcoin and um but one day i went into that wallet just to check it out and i couldn't get back into it and so i entered what i thought was my password but was actually my pin and it didn't work anymore and they said you know you need the password well the only thing i ever had was the pin because a friend had set it up for me and that's all they gave me right i never actually had the seed phrase or you know that the whole password so i i didn't know i didn't real have that because all i had ever needed was this little this four digit pin and so when the pin stopped working i couldn't recover my bitcoin i even contacted the owners of the the company where my wallet was right i think it was you know bitcoin.com or whatever it was a big company where i had the wallet and even they couldn't help me it was like look either you have to guess your password or you're never gonna get your coins you know and so that is you know the other risk of bitcoin i mean obviously if i forgot my my pin to my bank account i can go to the bank give my id they'll give me a new pin you know i don't i don't lose my bank deposit because i forgot my pin but you lose your bitcoin you forget those that information uh it's gone and of course if somebody steals it like if somebody goes into my bank and you know they stole my atm card they got my pin they withdraw the money i go down the bank they can have a camera or whatever i prove it's fraud they just give me my money back you know they but if someone steals your bitcoin they're gone right i mean you know that's tough luck for you yeah yeah pretty much there's been a bunch of stories of people who have forgotten their password i mean in your case a third of a bitcoin is about fifteen thousand dollars not a big deal for someone like yourself but but there are stories of people who literally have lost millions sometimes even tens of millions uh and when they forgot their password or they're stolen sometimes people have yeah or sometimes yeah when when uh people have been convicted of stealing bitcoin and they refuse to give the password up and there's nothing that the authorities could do to recover that money right but but let's say you know you're somebody is able to hack into your email or something and they're able to get a password into your wallet or your trading app where your coins are and then they get in there and then they get the coins transferred out by the time you notice that they've been stolen there's no way to get them back they're gone so it's not just that you could lose them that they could be stolen and i'm sure over time you know these crooks get more and more sophisticated and they come up with you know better ways to to steal your bitcoin because as long as bitcoin is very valuable in the market people are going to try to steal it right they they ask willie sutton was the famous bank robber hey willy why do you rob banks he said well that's where the money is well right now the money is in bitcoin and so people are looking to steal it and so that's just another risk well you know you've said that you actually regret uh not becoming one of the bitcoin billionaires because early on you actually could have put a hundred thousand into bitcoin and these days it might have been worth it might be worth a billion dollars yeah i mean look you'd have to be a fool not to regret it um you know what now that you know what happens right hindsight is always 20 20.
so knowing that bitcoin is 50 000 a coin and i knew about it when it was you know less than 5 or 10 wherever it was back then um yeah i mean it's one of the best speculative opportunities that i failed to take advantage of i mean it's not the only one right i could go back gee i should have bought all this amazon when it first came out or i should have bought you know a lot of things i could have would have should have done right you know with the benefit of hindsight um now there were some things i did do that were smart it's not like i missed out on every opportunity i i took advantage of some i made money i lost money overall i did pretty good but sure you know it would have been nice to have caught the big train ride as well but you know there's no way of knowing even if i had bought it way back then would i have held on to it i mean given the fact that i've never believed in it would i have been able to hold on to it without selling it now is it possible that buying it and experiencing the initial gain could have clouded my judgment maybe i would have somehow believed in it simply because i was getting so rich and i would have been caught up in it i mean you don't know right maybe you know you know where my head would have been so it's hard to go back and say yeah if i would have done that i would be a billionaire uh but i think it's interesting that the bitcoin community tries to make a big deal out of this admission oh peter schiff admits he was wrong he regrets not buying bitcoin as if that somehow validates buying bitcoin now i mean had i bought bitcoin back then i would definitely sell it now right which is why i probably would have sold it earlier than now um but you know i think you know just the way i regret not buying bitcoin back then in the future people are going to regret not selling bitcoin because they can sell it now for a lot of money and obviously the price can go higher but none of that matters if it eventually crashes you know so let's say bitcoin does go to a hundred thousand and then goes to zero if you didn't sell and he had a hundred thousand what difference does it make didn't make any difference the only person it's going to make a difference to is the guy who bought it at 100 000 right right i mean you called bitcoin well you've compared it to tulip mania which was the first financial bubble yeah uh in world history and you said that bitcoin could become such an enormous bubble that it would actually replace the term ponzi scheme yeah well you know everybody remembers ponzi i mean uh bernie madoff right was the the big uh ponzi guy you know in this generation but the the whole idea of a ponzi scheme was named after charles ponzi the first guy to pull it off in a big way um but yeah i i do think that in the future because who remembers this little guy named ponzi you know and i i think what's happening now is really a more modern version of what ponzi did and and and what's happening with bitcoin it is not a pure ponzi it's kind of like a hybrid of a ponzi a pyramid scheme a chain letter it really is like a modern version of an old crime playing out you know in the digital age so it's not that bitcoin is gold 2.0 it's ponzi 2.0 right it's a ponzi to a whole new level and and so i do think that in the future you know schemes similar to this one they'll say oh it's another bitcoin scheme right that that might be how bitcoin is remembered as a replacement for ponzi and i do think that when they stuttle bubbles right and the popular delusions and the madness of crowds they won't have to go back to holland in what the 16th century you know they can just go back to america and a lot of the world in the 21st century and they can study bitcoin and cryptocurrencies uh instead of you know tulips
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