저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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비트코인은 가치가 없는 거품이며 암호화폐 전반이 실질 효용 없이 발행만 가능한 토큰이라는 주장. 비트코인은 2010~2011년경 알게 됐고 매수하지 않았지만, 대중적 확산과 거품 규모를 과소평가한 것이 실수였다고 인정함. 암호화폐는 무한히 발행 가능하며 현재 1만 1천여 개가 존재해 공급 문제가 있고, 수요가 있어 시장이 흡수했을 뿐 본질적으로 가장 큰 거품이라고 봄. 실질 효용(킬러 앱)이 없고 불법 거래 외에 뚜렷한 용도가 없다고 평가. 후발 투자자는 늦게 들어온 것이며 결국 손실을 보는 사람이 생기고, 정부가 규제 강화 명분으로 이를 악용해 합법적 투자 산업에 부담을 줄 것이라고 우려. 금은 투자가 아니라 통화 대체 저축 수단이며 산업용 금속으로서 본질적 가치가 있다고 주장. 반면 주식은 이익을 내는 실제 사업이라 투자로 분류되며, 장기적으로 주식이 금보다 큰 수익을 냈다고 비교. 미국 주식 투자 10년 경력을 강조하고, 비트코인이 본인의 투자 대상이 아니었다고 설명.
다듬은 글
well let's talk about bitcoin for a second uh at what point did bitcoin really get on your radar and did you initially buy some well it got on my radar pretty early on um maybe around 2010 2011 people told me about it so and that's the only way i heard about it was from people telling me obviously it wasn't like in the news the way it is today they weren't talking about it on tv non-stop like they do today but in libertarian free market circles there were some people that were playing around with it and because i swim in those circles right i i found out about it and you know i thought it was interesting but ultimately you know i always see long term and i saw the flaws and the reason why it would never actually work for the purposes that it had been created and what people were thinking um but and i didn't buy it but the mistake that i made in not buying it i just did not see the potential that it would catch on that so many people would be taken in by it and be fooled by it such that you know you could have this gigantic you know pyramid ponzi chain letter type of effect but i had known in my career that i'd seen all sorts of crazy bubbles during the dot-com era and during you know the real estate era that you know why couldn't we have a bubble in in bitcoin and in fact it wasn't just bitcoin you know one of the the objections i had to bitcoin when i first heard about it was that well what if somebody else comes up with another digital currency you know what's to stop that from happening i mean there's ice there could be an unlimited number of these and i was right about that there's now over 11 000 of them but the bubble has gotten so big that the market has been able to accommodate all of that supply because we've had all this demand but to me it's just another bubble in fact it's probably the biggest bubble uh when it comes to you know how ridiculous it is because i ultimately think that uh cryptocurrencies including bitcoin have no value at all so at least real estate has some value stocks have some value and that value you know was overpriced in the market but i don't see any value in these crypto tokens that can be created out of thin air uh in an indefinite a number uh that actually don't have any real utility all they are is a token that you can collect and if you can find somebody who'll buy it from you you can sell it to them but i i think the rest of it all the marketing it's all a bunch of hype and it's unfortunate because i do think a lot of people who are coming late to the party and if you're buying bitcoin now you're not getting it on the ground floor you're late a lot of people are going to be left holding the bag and unfortunately i think what's going to happen is again the government's going to come in and say we told you so capitalism is no good you know we need more regulation to protect the consumer to protect the investor and it's ultimately going to create even more problems for you know the legitimate investment industry making it even harder to serve the public yeah i mean i've never been a big fan of bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general uh i've always been a big stock market investor i mean in fact that's really how i made most of my wealth was through through public stocks uh you know i'm i've been doing it for 10 years now non-stop but when bitcoin came around the problem with me was that i couldn't see what i call the killer app for for this new invention you know like for example when the apple computer first came out spreadsheets were the killer app here is something that you couldn't do anything out you know you couldn't do on any other platform you people were doing it by paper changing a number would take you three days to redo all the all the calculations when suddenly you know you had the spreadsheet you had the word processor and so forth i mean with bitcoin you can make electronic payments with your credit card you can make electronic payments through your bank uh i mean the one real advantage i see with bitcoin is doing illegal transactions and you can't really base a business on illegal transactions now bitcoin seems to have done pretty well over time uh so it's not like i was particularly right or particularly wrong but for me it just wasn't the type of investment that i would do myself because i only really invest you know just like i don't invest in gold as opposed to a company because i feel like a company generates money something like gold or bitcoin really just sits there and waits for someone to pay a higher price for it yeah well first of all you know when it comes to illegal transactions there are other cryptocurrencies that do a better job than bitcoin and in fact as bitcoin becomes more popular it actually becomes more regulated and it becomes harder and more expensive to do the illegal transactions so it's really only used to speculate but there is a difference when you say gold just sits there um it it sits there preserving the value of a metal see this is what the the bitcoin community doesn't understand gold is a commodity and it's a metal it's the most useful metal in in the world and it's used for all sorts of things i mean one of the primary uses is for jewelry but it's also used in electronics in aerospace in dentistry it has very unique properties that other metals don't have and so you need gold for certain applications now the beauty of gold is it doesn't lose its properties over time it doesn't decay so i can have gold and in 10 years and 100 years you can still use that gold for what you know whatever you would have used it for today it's not like it's going to rot or it's going to break down so that's why it's a store of value right it's i'm storing that value for future use so i don't have to use my gold now i can use it right i have a gold watch that i'm wearing but the beauty is if i if i got tired of this watch i can melt it down and i can get the gold back and i can do something else with it so it has value and and so do other commodities but those other commodities don't work as well as money because you can't store them as easily as gold and they may not you know they may tarnish or or or decay over time unlike gold that that retains that the property see the bitcoin community doesn't understand they think gold is worthless it's not it's very valuable it's bitcoin that's worthless and you know there's also a difference between stocks right and gold when you own a stock you own a piece of a business that business operates and generates a profit and you can get a dividend or the company can use the profits to buy back shares right so it's a real business when you own real estate you own an asset you can rent it out and collect rents if i buy a bond i get interest right those are income producing assets gold is not an income producing asset it is a commodity like copper or wheat or corn but it has different properties than those commodities that makes it a better store of value than those commodities and it's better as money than dollars or euros or yen before we use these fiat currencies instead of money the world used gold as money and gold was superior to use because it was more stable and it held its value over time so we can make transactions and i can agree to buy something and pay you over the course of years or even decades and if we're transacting in gold you have a high degree of confidence in the value of those future payments but when i'm making contracts in fiat currencies who knows what they're going to be worth in the future they may not be worth anything because they have no intrinsic value it's just all a confidence game right and and i agree with you i understand that gold is a commodity and it has an intrinsic value and so forth i'm just saying that in terms of an investment most times you know when you take gold versus a company that's consistently profitable year after year and you see where those investments are ten years down the line like i said gold went from a thousand eighteen hundred which is not bad that's an eighty percent increase but in that same time you put your money into an amazon or a netflix it went up 20 30 times yeah well that's all i mean yeah well but you you don't want to you don't want to call gold an investment because it's not an investment it's any more than if you took dollars and put them under your mattress you wouldn't consider that an investment you would say well i'm saving some dollars so gold is an alternative form of savings right so instead of stuffing bills under your mattress you can take some gold coins it is not an investment an investment generates a return gold doesn't do that right so stocks are an investment and of course the difference is you buy some of these stocks the companies can go bankrupt they can go to zero so you could lose a lot of money investing you're not going to lose in gold because you're not going to lose your gold if you have an ounce of gold and you put it you know under your mattress that ounce of gold is not going anywhere you don't have to worry about losing that ounce of gold you're gonna re you know retain it so it's a form of savings it competes with dollars and euros and yen it does not compete with with with amazon or or stocks you know those are investments and you know those are more speculative right because you could have stocks that are far more conservative in that they have lower pes they pay higher dividend yields so maybe they don't have as much upside potential to go up but they also have a lot less risk of going way down or going going you know bankrupt yeah i agree i think we're on the same page when it comes to that
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