저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 달러 및 법정화폐에 대한 보존 자산이며 장기적으로 가치가 상승한다고 주장. 버핏과 달리 금은 달러와 경쟁한다고 봄. 주식은 현재 고평가로 하락 가능성 언급. 금이 1913년 $20에서 현재 약 $4,000로 올랐다고 설명. Grant Cardone의 비트코인 결합 부동산 전략은 불필요하며 사기성이라고 비판.
다듬은 글
Well, I've never been a big investor in gold. I remember reading Warren Buffett's view on it, and he essentially said that something like gold would never grow like a real company because it doesn't generate any money. Even a farm generates money every year. A company, or corporation, generates money every year, every day. They have a quarterly report where you can see what their profit is. When it comes to gold, silver, or other similar assets, you buy them with the hope that someone else will pay a higher price for them later, for various reasons. Is that correct?
No. I don't disagree with Warren Buffett that in the long run, if you buy a productive asset, you should have a better return than just owning gold. But gold is not a substitute for productive assets. And this is where I always disagree with Warren Buffett, because he never put it right. Gold does not compete with stocks or real estate. It competes with the dollar, the euro, and the yen. If you go back to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, you could buy an ounce of gold for $20, and now it's worth $4,000.
So if someone buried an ounce of gold in the ground in 1913, and someone else buried a $20 bill, and you dug them up today, what would you choose? An ounce of gold or a $20 bill? This shows you that over time, if you are going to save money, it is better to save gold than dollars. Someone might say, "Well, I could put my dollar in the bank and get interest." Yes, but now you lend your dollar to the bank, and the bank lends it back, right? You could do the same with gold. I can lend my gold to someone and they can pay me interest on it. So you can still earn interest on gold if you lend it out. But if you just put it in a safe, it's the same as stuffing money under your mattress. They just lie there.
The reason gold holds its value better than dollar bills is because the Federal Reserve can just print the stuff like crazy. There is an infinite amount of paper money they can create. So the supply of dollars grows very quickly, whereas the supply of gold grows very slowly, because you actually have to physically mine and find it. That's why gold is a great store of value. It is not a source of value. It is a means of preserving value. So if you have wealth and want to preserve it, you can buy gold. If you want to multiply your wealth, you don't just invest it in gold. You buy a business or start a business.
When it comes to investing, Warren Buffett would agree with me, and in fact, Berkshire Hathaway now has a record amount of cash. The reason Buffett holds so much cash is that he thinks stocks are overvalued, so he doesn't want to buy them right now. He wants to wait for prices to drop, and I agree. But in my opinion, he would have been better off waiting while holding gold instead of dollars. It's possible that inflation is so strong that even if stocks are expensive, their value continues to rise in dollars, which are losing value even faster. But I think stock prices will fall significantly in terms of gold, and they already have. So if Buffett were holding gold while waiting for better buys, that would be a better strategy.
If you can buy stocks cheaply, if you can get a good deal on a company so that you're not overpaying on a profit basis, and you're getting a good dividend, then yes, of course it's better than buying gold. Still, without some diversification, you could be in a company that goes wrong. The company may start losing money, or go bankrupt. Therefore, stock companies should, over time, deliver better returns than simply owning an ounce of gold. But it's also possible your company will go bankrupt and you will lose all your money. That won't happen with gold. There is no such risk with gold. Gold will fluctuate a bit, but it will increase over time. That's why its price went from $20 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce, and then to $10,000 per ounce, then up to $20,000. It just depends on how long it takes to get there, and on how high inflation is and how fast we create money.
Grant Cardone, a billionaire who specializes in real estate, was on my show last time we discussed gold, and he said something interesting. He said: "If you look at where technology is going with artificial intelligence and robotics, there will come a point where they will start deploying thousands of robots in mines, at the bottom of the ocean, and in all these places on most of the planet that we haven't really explored." Wait until there are 8 million, 80 million, or 8 billion Optimus robots doing nothing but mining. They'll dig up gold, silver, uranium, and copper, 24/7, 365 days a year, as long as there's energy. An infinite amount will be mined from the rock. We haven't even explored 91% of the ocean floor. So imagine throwing 100,000 robots into the middle of the ocean to mine gold, diamonds, and silver. Eventually this will happen. It won't happen in the next year or two, but it could in the next 20 years.
I don't know how much they'll actually find, but I don't think they'll find enough to flood the market, because we've already mined a lot of the gold that we have. Gold is pretty rare, and the cheap, easy-to-find gold has already been found. Technology may let us find more, but I'm not worried that it will happen. And it only makes sense to send robots into space or to the bottom of the ocean to mine gold when gold is expensive. I'm sure it won't be cheap, especially when people talk about mining gold in space. I hope they start mining gold in space, because that means it's really, really expensive.
Usually the reason you hear this kind of talk, and the reason Grant Cardone mentions it, is that he's now a Bitcoin fan. The Bitcoin crowd is always trying to scare gold investors away, and they try to come up with reasons why gold won't work. They say you have to own Bitcoin because it's advertised as digital gold, which is a scam. This is not digital gold. This is digital nothingness. Digital gold would be tokenized gold, like Tether Gold, because it is backed by real gold. Bitcoin is not secured by anything.
Grant Cardone also has a gimmick where he combines his real estate funds with Bitcoin and claims this is a revolutionary way of managing real estate, because real estate is illiquid, so you don't have the money to cover repairs and maintenance. He says you solve this by also holding Bitcoin, which could be sold more easily to cover those expenses. That is complete nonsense, and he should know better as a real estate professional. Real estate generates income, and that's why you buy it. Rental properties cover these costs. You don't need Bitcoin to pay for maintenance; that's what rent is for. And when you own real estate, depreciation lets you avoid paying taxes on much of your income, so you have plenty of income to cover expenses. Bitcoin doesn't solve a real problem for real estate investment trusts (REITs). He creates a problem that doesn't exist, and the real risk is that the money put into Bitcoin will collapse. If you want to buy real estate, buy a real estate trust. If you want Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin. There's no point in paying someone to manage your Bitcoin when you can do it yourself. It's easy. I think it's just a scam. I'd be happy to argue with Grant. I've talked to him from time to time, and I've challenged him to discuss this topic on X. I think I'd win easily.
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