저자: DanIves · 외국인
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마이크로소프트는 2022년 상반기 안에 시가총액 3조 달러를 돌파할 것으로 전망됨. 클라우드 전환은 아직 약 35% 진행된 수준이라 성장 여지가 크다고 봄. Office 365와 Azure 조합이 성장 핵심이며, AWS 대비 점유율도 늘고 있다고 평가. 나델라 CEO는 클라우드 중심으로 회사를 재편해 클라우드 가치만 1.3~1.4조 달러로 평가될 만큼 성공적이라고 평가. 메타버스는 MS가 소비자 영역에서 약했으나 게임·엔터프라이즈 측면에서 유리하고, 반독점 규제 부담이 빅테크 중 상대적으로 적어 M&A 여지가 있다고 봄. 리비안은 픽업·SUV 시장(5조 달러 중 1조 달러 이상)에서 기회가 크고 테슬라·GM과 달리 수직통합형 EV 업체라 주목. 현재 밸류에이션이 높지만 단기 실적만으로 평가하면 넷플릭스·아마존 같은 성장주를 놓친다고 주장. 목표가 130달러, Outperform 의견. 테슬라는 태양광 사업 관련 SEC 조사 보도에 대해, 태양광은 인수 이후 계속 부담이 되어 온 곡절이라며 테슬라가 핵심 EV에 집중해야 한다고 조언. 관련 우려로 투자자들이 주가에 페널티를 줄 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
all right the votes are in and microsoft is the yahoo finance company of the year is there any upside left in the tech giant stock though after a strong run this year den ives covers microsoft and really pretty much the whole entire tech sector web bush and joins us now you know finance tech editor dan halley is here as well uh dan ives good to see you as always i'll start with you microsoft is only about 23 away from reaching a three trillion dollar market cap do you think they hit it next year and how would they do that oh i think they clearly hit it just given what we see in cloud but we're only about 35 through the cloud shift with microsoft leading the way and i think that's what we've seen with the stock it's a re-reading it's investors further understanding just how you know this growth store is really seeing a renaissance in redmond and to me this continues to be our view that this is a three trillion dollar market first half 22.
dan this is dan uh i i want to ask you know what you think microsoft can do to kind of speed up the growth because there's been talk about potential slowdown next year and you know what what is the the main i guess you know uh weapon they can use to offset any kind of slowdown yeah it's a great question remember like the haters talked about a slowdown a year ago so i think that's really been what's happened in the story is that the it's actually accelerated when it comes to cloud because now we're seeing office 365 azure that's really the combo that's starting to be in the sweet spot of microsoft's backyard and if i look at just the secular trends you talk about docusign some of these work from home names that have gotten crushed i don't put microsoft in the camp i think this digital transformation is a fourth industrial revolution that that's going to continue to be the fuel in the engine from microsoft also i continue to see share gains versus the likes of aws that's starting to put on the radar yeah i just kind of want to ask about what you think satya nadella has done well as microsoft ceo satya nadella what have what has he done in particular and you know the the cloud story kind of kicked off originally uh under bomber to a degree well with the the announcement of azure or the release of azure but satya's been there in the cloud division forever i guess what has he done well as far as his transition to ceo to really push microsoft where it is now look we could say nadella in my opinion one of the most successful ceos in tech over the last 25 years i mean what he did at microsoft took out the red tape you know ripped off the bandy we came to know key and some of these other initiatives and focused the whole company on cloud there was a lot of push back when he first started to do it and and ultimately if you look he's changed the direction of the company i mean now microsoft's a cloud behemoth and the cloud valuation alone is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion and i think it's it's unique that you can have one individual change the culture as well as the strategic vision like microsoft's done and the street now really started to understand what that vision looks like financially speaking in terms of what we're seeing with double digit growth i just want to ask quickly on the metaverse right that was kind of the key word or go-to word uh for tech companies what is microsoft going to be doing there and will they be successful in this kind of i guess new internet that these companies are really kind of pushing well that's probably the one area that microsoft's not been successful i mean if you look at the consumer strategy it's been a treadmill approach versus the enterprise which has just been you know massively robust i think when it comes to metaverse they're extremely well positioned especially on the gaming side as well as the overall consumer footprint i could see them doing acquisitions on the metaverse and the one that's important is with anti-trust across the board microsoft's the one that has a lot more flexibility with m a versus their big tech stalwart brethren so i i think meta versus an area microsoft could actually go on the offensive when it comes 2022.
hey dan it's julie here um i want to switch gears because we've got you on a fortunate day a day that you and a lot of your peers in the industry initiated coverage of rivian and there's also just generally a lot going on in electric vehicles today um from a regulatory perspective as well but let's stick with rivian for a minute um you've got an outperform on the stock you've got a one 130 uh price target here and you think you know the valuation's high but this is still an attractive bet here when you're assessing these startup ev companies like how do you do it how do you know which ones are going to be the winners here well and let's just go back i mean if you focused on valuation and looking out the next year you would have missed netflix amazon apple castle or another so i just never view these transformational growth companies evaluation over the next year too when i look at rivian next to tesla and gm it's the only vertically integrated ev play out there and i think what rj's done in terms of specific going after pick up an suv i mean did that that's over a trillion of our five trillion market over the next decade and i think that's the huge opportunity and it's unique because with amazon ford and others they've gotten to scale very quickly in terms of that factor in normal illinois which i spent a lot of time at and i view rivian as kind of one of the next leaders of ev but it's not a zero-sum game i disagree with some this is not tesla or rivian it talks about this green tidal wave rivian's going to be a big player along with tesla lead in the market well dan the current leader in evs is in fact tesla and reuters reporting this morning here that the sec is investigating claims around its solar panels as an analyst that has covered tesla for some time is this a big deal to you and are you a buyer of the stock here the solar strategy going back to the acquisition it's been a black eye for castle from the beginning and i think part of the frustration of investors is that it's been a sideshow and it continues to sort of be an overhang in the stock that comes up every six twelve months and i think this is just another example of tesla should stay in their swim lane focused on core evs especially with his arms where he's playing out but a lot of sensitivity what you're seeing across cv space and investors are gonna you know put put the company a little in the penalty box because of this all right we'll leave it there dan ives over at webbush always good to see you and yao finances ticket or dan halle good to see you too
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