저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC 4분기 실적 발표 분석: 매출 전분기 대비 14% 증가, 매출총이익률 59%, 영업이익률 49%로 개선. HPC(AI)가 매출의 53%, 스마트폰 35%. 2025년 설비투자 약 33% 증가(300억→400억 달러 예상). 실적 발표 후 주가 5% 이상 상승. 발언자는 1월 3일 투자의견을 매수에서 보유로 하향했고, 밸류에이션 부담과 해외 생산 투자에 따른 마진 압박, 지정학적 리스크를 이유로 실적 이후에도 보유 유지.
다듬은 글
Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing gave investors a critical update that we've all been waiting for Taiwan semiconductor is a supplier to some of the world's most popular companies including apple and Nvidia and investors were looking to Taiwan semiconductor to get insights as to the developments in the AI industry if it's continuing its boom or if it's slowing down that's a lot of what we're going to talk about here in this video video want to discuss more about what's going on at Taiwan semiconductor for investors here in this video let's get righ reported fourth quarter Revenue which increased by 14% from the previous quarter this was supported by strong demand for industry leading 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technology IES for Taiwan semiconductor the nanometers the smaller the number the more advanced the technology gross margin increased by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter to 59% which surprised me there was pressure on Taiwan semiconductors margins and I was considering or I was thinking that maybe their margins might go down in this quarter and I was curious to see the results and it was good to see their margins actually increased in this quarter and this reflected higher capacity utilization and productivity gains partially offset by the new technology ramping up so they've been producing at Full Tilt for the better part of the last two years now because of the soaring demand for artificial intelligence or what Taiwan semiconductor calls a HPC high performance Computing they're expanding quickly to fulfill the needs of their customers which are ordering in increasing quantities their operating margin also increased by 1 and a half percentage points sequentially to 49% I don't know I I really can't think of a manufacturing company or a company that sells physical products that has a better operating margin than Taiwan semiconductor there are companies for instance nvidia's operating profit margin is 60% but Nvidia outsources their production Nvidia out in fact Nvidia outsources their production primarily to Taiwan semiconductor but a company that does manufacturing I can't think of one that has a profit margin anywhere near what Taiwan semiconductor has and I say that to highlight just how excellent Taiwan semiconductor is at doing what it does it's really a best-in-class business in this category not just if you think about semiconductors but if you think more broadly if you just think of Manufacturers worldwide of any kind of product I can't think of one that has anywhere near an operating margin this high if you know of one I'd be interested to see what that company is because I follow over 125 150 companies uh not all of them are manufacturing companies but the ones that I do follow I can't think of one that comes anywhere near this so kudos to Taiwan semiconductor and their leadership team for maintaining excellent performance and this isn't just like a onee thing Taiwan semiconductor has done this for the better part of a couple of decades now they went on to talk about HPC which is increased by 19% from the previous quarter and now it accounts for 53% of their total revenue also smartphone sales for Taiwan semiconductor increased by 177% to account for 35% of total revenue management talked about how even though smartphone unit sales are relatively flat what's happening within the smartphone industry i people are upgrading to more powerful smartphones they want the smartphones that have the increased Computing capabilities enhanced by artificial intelligence or other key features that require more computing power inside the phones and so people are spending more on the phones that they're buying the so-called premiumization of smartphones that's the trend in the industry that many participants have been talking about including now Taiwan semiconductor uh Qualcomm was talking about similar Trends in the premiumization of smartphones Micron Technology was talking about similar Trends how each smart smart phone is now asking for more memory and more storage and so all of that is benefiting Taiwan semiconductor as well as those companies that I mentioned in my commentary Taiwan semiconductors balance sheet improved it now has $74 billion in cash and the balance sheet is important for Taiwan semiconductor because this is a very Capital intensive business they require require continuous investments in research and development in manufacturing capabilities in 2024 they spent upwards of $30 billion on capital expenditure in fact in the fourth quarter alone they spent $ 11.2 billion in capital expenditures they forecast that they will increase their capital expenditure here in 2025 by roughly 33% from $30 billion to $40 billion for the year so it's a very Capital intensive business if you don't spend on capital expenditure to make sure you have the latest and greatest technology you run the risk of being leapfrogged the way that Intel got leapfrogged by Taiwan semiconductor over the last decade and Now intel is trying to catch up and it's in a very poor position compared to where it was 10 years ago that's why this industry you got to keep up you got to spend on the latest technology and so Taiwan semi saying that due to the strong demand for their 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer processes they continue to outperform The Foundry industry in 2024 their revenue increased by 30% their gross margin increased by 1.7% and their operating margin increased to 45.7 % with the full year earnings per share Rising by 40% phenomenal performance from Taiwan semiconductors to be sure so the latest developments from Taiwan semiconductor are sending the stock price Higher by over 5% and it was a very good report both in terms of the current numbers and the forecast and the outlook for future performance so I'm not surprised that the stock price increased by more than 5% on the back of this news this was very good news uh the overall report was very strong much better than I was expecting from Taiwan semiconductor so shortly before the company reported well I shouldn't say shortly before it was January 3rd when I updated my recommendation a buy for a couple of years and the stock price had tripled since I had initi rated it a buy the valuation was getting stretched so I downgraded Taiwan semiconductor stock to a hold on January 3rd now these results were excellent but I'm still keeping Taiwan semiconductor stock rated as a hold even after these results and there's a couple of reasons for that uh while they did highlight their margins were excellent in the current quarter they also said that investments in the new technologies and investments in Geographic diversification building manufacturing overseas is going to weigh down on margins over the next few years and so the valuation was already stretched and they have some headwinds coming up the geopolitical tensions so I'm going to keep this stock rated as a whole for now even though I think it's an excellent business and if the price decreases and you can get this stock at a better price I think it would make an excellent investment
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