저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 급락 국면에서 현금 확보를 위해 주택담보대출 재융자(약 520만달러)와 신용한도 확대를 추진하고, 저점 매수(딥 바잉)를 위해 애플 매도 후 소형주 및 주요 성장주 분할 진입을 계획. 2022년 1월 연준 일정(1/25, 3/16)을 주요 변곡점으로 봄. 단기 옵션(풋 매도) 전략과 암호화폐 빈번한 매매도 언급. 다만 본인이 명시적으로 개별 자산의 1~3개월 방향을 단정하지는 않고, 이벤트 기반 변동성 예상과 전략 중심으로 설명.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here boy oh boy it has been a spectacular last 24 hours and to help with the last 24 hours i got myself an emotional support uh well the closest thing i could get to a paper mario which is uh paper slash foil mario so i've got an emotional support animal here he's got a nose as big as a clown so i think it's pretty appropriate anyway it's kind of cool because he uh he self writes himself uh so when i throw him he still stands up which is kind of cool he's got a little weights on him anyway in this video we're going to talk about strategies moving forward because obviously a lot has been made about me selling and i think folks are tunnel visioning the fact that i'm only selling to set myself up to buy the dip more aggressively because see i believe the more the market dips and i do believe that the market has more to dip the better opportunities i can get the problem is when you are restrained by capital in tight markets you got to do everything you can to maximize your ability to buy the biggest stamp with either options or just straight trades that you can about how to maximize some of these things okay so let's go ahead and talk about this we'll also talk about futures because we've got a little bit of green and futures right now i'm going to talk about my expectations for futures uh so let's go ahead and get right into this so the first thing that i'm going to talk about is uh step one and this is sort of like a five-part video step one is going to be refinancing now what i like to do when markets get tough because when markets are good i have a rule i don't refinance my properties i generally don't like refinancing at all and see in my stocks and psychology money group and in my real estate investing courses we always talk about real estate is your piggy bank for a tough market i've currently built up over five million dollars in excess equity over the last two years in real estate now i don't try to time interest rates on real estate although it would have been nice to refinance last year at lower rates i usually don't even remotely think about refinancing my real estate unless the market's going to crap and so i've got about 5 million plus maybe 5.2 million that i could draw out of real estate and if i do activate those refinances now i should get that cash by the first week of march which if my timing is correct and we end up at peak fear before the first rate liftoff of march 16th i'll be able to plow an additional 5.2 million dollars into the market which means i'll be able to take an additional 25 of my overall portfolio throwing it and throw it into the market at a time that i think will probably have peak fear in the meantime between now and then we're going to have a lot of this vacillation so i'm not going to get head faked by this vacillation because we've seen this sort of isolation for the last eight weeks remember folks the most difficult thing in a bear market is raising capital so cutting away expenses is one thing making more money is one thing but if you have a piggy bank that you can go to and it can bail you out of margin which i'm not in margin obviously at this point or you can go to a piggy bank so that way you have more money when you need it close to ideally the bottom market that's ideal why do i say this is one of my favorite moves because in march on march 3rd of 2020 i activated a ton of refinances i refinanced somewhere around 10 properties in the span of two months and i got a boatload of money somewhere around at that point two to three million dollars and those original investments 4 to 5x if not even more they carried investment returns for a very long period of time so i want to get max cash that i can for when i think we get to max fear i don't know if we've hit max fear just yet i was hoping and i've been hoping that we've hit max fear last week and to some degree maybe but i don't know if jay pal is going to help us get rid of any of our fears so we'll see but i talked a lot about that on saturday okay the second thing to do in my opinion maximizing credit lines so that way you're not exposed to margin and see that's one of the beautiful things about mortgages or credit lines is they are different you don't have margin calls on credit lines or mortgages like you do on margin so i like staying away from that kind of debt or consumer debt and focusing on sorts of credit lines i think that's really where the juice is so if you're a business owner or you own your own home you might consider requesting to expand your lines of credit with banks banks are generally quite interested in expanding lending right now so while not all banks may be accommodative i believe you'll find one that will be accommodative so what i would do is i would ask for a home equity line of credit against your home or a business line of credit against your business income home equity lines of credit are known as helocs and certain credit unions not all the big banks will let you pull out up to 80 to 90 percent of the value against your property if you find a a credit union that lets you go up to 90 this means if your home is worth 500 000 and you owe 300 000 on it you could get a credit line while still maintaining your first for a hundred and sixty thousand dollars against your home that's amazing against your business you could usually get a credit line for somewhere between 10 to 20 of your gross business revenues extended to his line of credit so let's say you're a real estate agent and you make 400 000 gross you might get a credit line of 40k let's say you're all and i know this sounds a little skewed because the profit margin on that might be like 90 on that business right but now let's say you're a wholesaler and you have five million dollars of gross revenues but you only net let's say 4.5 mil so you're netting 500k on 500 mil right there they might actually are on on five mil they might actually let you take ten percent of that five mil or 500 k out as a credit line so like when it comes to these credit lines they often don't care so much about your profit margin they care about that gross revenue so for individuals with gross revenue businesses that are more elevated those business lines of credits are usually going to be a little bit more desirable and of course rates and terms may vary but these lines are usually variable and uh they can take basically you could take money in and out of them like you can on a credit card except the interest rate is way lower it's usually between three and five percent and uh generally you can take money in and out for the first 10 years you kind of write a check in and out of it uh and then after 10 years whatever balance you have left is usually locked the account is closed and then you're required to pay that off amortized fully amortized over 20 years that's when you start paying principal and interest otherwise you just pay interest before so those those are some cool things to consider as well now uh let's also touch now based on on sort of uh trade strategies right and i've been actively working on these and coming up with plans and strategies for these with those close to me and here's some expectations so i expect the market to change extremely quickly in my opinion all eyes are on the fed the first big date is january 25th and the next big date is march 16th it really in my opinion doesn't matter what news comes out in between because we could end up having good news and still end up with a hawkish powell or hawkish fed board and i do think that political influence is involved so we have to be somewhat careful about this but knowing january 25th and march 16th is just one part of the problem you've got to have an executable plan to maximize your returns in my opinion because if you end up seeing oh wow okay it seems like we're getting good news from the fed what should i do now and then you have to come up with a plan you might end up missing the boat so you don't want to miss the boat if you're trading remember trading is different from long run investing and i think that's so critical and a lot of people forget that that it's it's okay to to trade if you know you're a trader and you're going to pay taxes on those gains if you want to be a diamond hand hodler that's totally okay if you want to divide your portfolio 50 50 or 80 20 you could do that too but you have your right to change your mind with what you want to do with your portfolio and nobody should ever tell you otherwise now let's go through this so i can buy small caps for example now with money that originally i had invested in apple because see i don't particularly believe the upside for apple is huge what's apple going to do over the next year 10 20 30 i personally don't think it's going to double i think it would be lucky to do a 10 20 30 over the next year or two that would be amazing if apple did that because i do consider apple a relatively safe stock but now because i sold my apple stock and i washed some of the gains that i had with apple with other stocks and i sold profitably i will be paying taxes what i can do is i now have this money unlocked to be able to trade without fear of taxes into and out of small caps that in my opinion are desperately oversold and are setting up for a short squeeze these are the traditional ones the shift technologies the lemonade the tattooed chef even the matter ports or the robin hoods or the arrival right these are great companies that have been so oversold because they just have continued to go down and so now because i've liquidated my portfolio in most areas i have more cash available to be able to take advantage of these swings because i think some of these small caps have the potential to four to eight x uh their valuations which is kind of insane and is substantially worth paying taxes on if you can hit this correctly the problem is getting head faked and getting fake bounces and we'll talk about that in just a moment we'll pull this up and i'll talk exactly about what a head fake looks like in the market or or a bull trap and how we're going to try to identify when are we actually really going to turn around in this market and that's difficult to identify but we'll do our best to do so okay so uh some of the things obviously on longs i think it's really good to have uh buckets uh of longs and the buckets of longs that i've been playing in are of course ev where we've got tesla as a main holder autonomous tech honestly tesla is one of the best for autonomous tech uh chips and metaverse of course nvidia matterport some of our faves green energy of course enphase consumer discretionary even stocks and you want to start paying attention to some of these home depots down 15 percent from all-time high uh target is ultimate highs target is down 16.7 from all-time highs obviously your consumer discretionary is like etsy and a firm that you want to be careful with the firm because if we go into a recession you want to stay away from a firm uh consumer staples uh well staples would be more like your your probably uh your cost goes and your target actually rather than a discretionary that depends what you're buying there but anyway uh those are some to pay attention to as well maybe even sherwin-williams in that uh but personally uh i still love my faves that i've always loved again the etsy affirm the end phase the tesla these are sort of the core ones that uh i'm strategizing on how to get in uh and so there are a few ways that i can set myself up to get into my longs obviously i could just buy the shares on a lower dip that is an easy option in addition to just buying the shares on on a dip and this is probably the direction i'm going to go i i can sell puts because i think we've got about a 50-day window here where we're going to be trading downwards and sideways i don't really think that we're going to have massive rallies that are going to last i think we're going to have head fake rallies rallies that come and go really really quickly and so what i'm looking for are opportunities to potentially sell puts here so that way i can decrease my cost basis getting into these and ideally i want to decrease my cost basis more than the amount of money that i'm paying in taxes so for example if on average on my entire portfolio i'm paying about 20 in taxes or about four million dollars let's just say as an example washing out gains losses uh then then i want to make sure that uh that's a 20 decline i want to make sure that i can lower my cost basis in certain stocks ideally by around 20 and if i could do that with weekly sell puts farming the credits that might be an option over the next 50 days probably the worst thing i could do is just sit for 50 days and do nothing with my cash though you know that's tbd so still working out the exact details of that obviously every single move that i make i will be pointing out in my stocks on psychology of money group whether whether it's uh crypto or it is a traditional stock or it's an option every single trade goes in the stocks in psychology and money course so if you're looking for trade ideas again no guarantees ups or downs but uh i'm gonna be doing a lot of trading over the next 50 days probably i will probably be doing more trading over the next 50 days than i have in the last year so if you like trading check it out i stare at the charts all day long that's what i do now some of you may be unfamiliar with exactly how a sold put works so let me just give you a very quick example using end phase so let's go ahead and jump in here we're going to drop in end phase what we're going to do is we're going to see this has gone down substantially in in value we're going to jump over here to options you could go for weeklies which can sometimes give you a little bit of a higher rate of return but let's just go ahead and say i'm going to go for a 33 day on this one i'm going to go for 33 days and let's say i'm willing to buy end phase at it's currently at 126 dollars so we go for the 125.
let's say i can sell this for 12 dollars a contract approximately at this this year or or per uh per share that is since contract is times 100. so here's what's going to happen i'm going to pick the 125 strike february 25th 2022 expiration sell put and this is a if you're using a uh a platform that has the like two open or two closed phrase what you're looking for is sell to open because by selling a put you're giving somebody else the right to force you to buy shares at 125 so in this case i'm giving somebody else the right to force me to buy 10 times 100 shares of end phase at a hundred twenty five dollars that means i'm agreeing to pay to pay a hundred twenty five thousand dollars for one thousand shares of enface in return i'm going to get a ten thousand seven hundred fifty credit now if end face trades above uh 125 dollars i can either sell the contract for a profit or i can sell or just i could literally do nothing i could keep the 10 000 uh dollar credit and then the contract expires worthless and then i keep the ten thousand seven hundred fifty dollars the only time this is bad is when prices go down you go under 125.
uh well i'm good until about 115 dollars that's approximately my break even depending on if i get it for ten dollars 10 or 75 cents somewhere on there my break even is going to be somewhere around 115 114 that's my break even so it's kind of like i'm buying end face for a discount and the cool thing about that is if uh if it ends up falling to 120 and i get assigned that's okay because it's really like i got the shares for 114 or 115 dollars and uh i got forced to to pick him up while i was at about 120 big deal uh so i'm still in the money in that case gets ugly though when you sell a put and end face goes from 125 to like 80.
in that case you'd be agreeing to buy shares for 125 sure you'd have the 11ish dollar credit but you'd still be upside down by 34 so there is some risk related to this and that's why sometimes what people like to do is they like to go for the one weeks so that way they limit how extremely down it can go but they're still farming that credit because look at this on one week i'm collecting four thousand six hundred fifty dollars if i go to four weeks i'm collecting roughly twice that so it's four times the time for only twice the credit so that's why those weeklies can be really nice because people are buying weekly puts speculating so it's kind of like selling the pickaxe to the gold farmers right now if i went in here and did 500 of these contracts times 100 shares per contract at uh in this case per the week four dollars and 65 cents i would get a credit of 232 000 between now and friday and if end face sold below 125 by friday i would be committing to spend uh a few million dollars six point two million dollars which is a lot it's crazy right i'm using big numbers here just as an example but still if npace traded above 125 i could take that 230 thousand dollars thank you very much for free by friday as long as we're above 125.
so these are just some ideas that's not exactly what i'm planning on doing this particular one i'd probably go a little to different prices and ladder and vertical this out a little bit but uh to be determined still in the works just a quick example uh so now what about shorts okay so i don't love shorting because i believe when you short you're betting against train america you're betting against the future growth of america so what i'm looking at is potentially shorting overvalued momentum which is very very dangerous you could you could lose your pants on that so you'll be very very careful or kind of limit your exposure here or specific tech stocks that have not fully sold off yet i specifically want to do this as potentially an earnings play on only certain stocks i hate playing earnings but earnings are going to be the catalyst on very specific stocks where i believe i have a competitive advantage so for example let's say i'm a consumer or a purchaser of a certain good and i see something shady happening at a company and i think it's going to get reported in earnings and it's corroborated by potentially still a high stock price that might be an opportunity for me to short uh who knows but in my opinion what you're trying to do with trading is balance the scale to where you have an 80 chance of being right 78 chance of being right 30 chance of being wrong uh in that way you were right more than you're wrong if i had those odds in roulette i would be playing roulette all day long and we would be doing roulette live streams every single day uh so uh one of them just and i've got a whole list of positions i've got about five that i'm really considering at right now one that i will just kind of throw out there uh and i have not made any moves on this one yet it's very very dangerous but i think i think if we get more pain in the market it's going to be very very juicy for short potentials it's dwack uh i i know that sounds like anti-trump this is not a political move at all this is just straight up like okay there's absolutely zero reason a company with with its level of development and i know they've done some fundraising they've done some good with fundraising but with this level of development should be trading for for what it's trading for it's absolutely the same calculating the valuations on spax is a little bit more complicated you can't just look at what the market cap is on google because that's based on the market cap of only the pipe shares anyway long story short this is like a 10 billion dollar company dwack is worth more than like robin hood which i mean maybe some people might actually be happy about but but from a rational basis with a company where robin hood's got seven to eight billion dollars in the bank and whack is worth more than robin hood it doesn't make logical sense right going back to fundamentals here but anyway uh okay so any trades that i do end up making obviously i will post immediately in the stocks and psychology money group there are some trades that i may make a video about and then post them like a day later or whatever i can't always post them uh the same day though because it takes time to put videos together and i do my best to get polished videos out even though i can get news videos out very quickly when they come to my thoughts and putting my thoughts together alone i try to make sure i bring out a polished product okay so uh next thing i'm gonna also do a lot is uh my expectation is crypto is going to be extremely volatile over the next uh the next 60 days and i do think that there are going to be trading opportunities in crypto where we are going to bounce up and down and break through and break above over and over and over again support lines within the crypto space and so i want to take advantage of those opportunities when i see them present probably going to stick with some of the larger ones and uh that's going to be like bitcoin ethereum and cardano maybe even solano just because these are ones where i feel like i've got the chart down a little bit better than some of the others though i'll probably be expanding to alts as well so i do expect to get into and out of crypto on almost a daily basis over the next 50 to 60 days and uh we'll see how it goes it'll be fun okay the next thing that i'm going to do is i'm going to uh brokerage transfer so i'm really tired of using jpm i can't handle the fact that they don't let me do pre or post market trading i have to wait hours for my margin to become available when i want to use it sometimes i have to call them to buy or sell and i can obviously only do that when they answer the phone and if the amount is over a certain size then they can't help me trade and the bank automatically has some weird limits set so then they have to like the phone banker has to send an email to a different department but everybody's work from home so it's like this complete cluster f i absolutely hate it complete moronic rules uh and rules like this have cost me tens of thousands of dollars in lost opportunities because what like when i make a trade and it goes down like i'll i'll suck it up like okay i made a mistake that's fine if i make a trade and i'm like i want to make this trade like right now let's go and i can't do it because somebody else is standing my way like vlad then i get pissed that's not fair right that should happen to nobody and my heart goes out uh empathetically to uh the robin hood folks who had this issue uh also td ameritrade is expecting to offer me some sort of a special portfolio like lower margin rate which would be really amazing jpm's was like 1.25 and if they can low get lower than that let's go okay good so uh now what else what else so the big thing here is i am going to do everything that i can over the next 50 to 60 days to make sure that i can get uh more money raised so that when we get better pricing i am the person they're buying i'm a big fan of buy the dip i just want to do everything i can to build my portfolio as much as i can with trades probably by yield farming credits because i think that's the safest and most conservative way to do that and then that way if i've got a few extra million dollars i've covered my taxes boom i get back in at lower prices so that's my expectation watching futures very closely so futures are really interesting right now nasdaq futures have shot up from about .66 to about .94 they ran up to almost one percent up in futures they pulled right back down to up about two-thirds so you're seeing that volatility already present in the futures market here's my expectation for tomorrow i believe that there's a very high likelihood that we're going to have a green open tomorrow but i think it's going to be a little bit of a weenie baby open where it's kind of just like yay we open green but then the second half of the day the traders take advantage of us the institutions take advantage of us and we sell out i do think if you are a trader this is a very very important pattern that has been consistent for the last eight weeks that you can take advantage up also remember the best time to sell puts is when put prices are higher so if you do towards the second half of the day start seeing prices go back down that's probably going to be the time to sell your puts rather than the beginning part of the day where stocks are green because that's when puts are going to be less expensive and if you're going to sell them you want to sell when things are a little bit more expensive when prices stock prices start falling your put prices the credits you're going to get are going to start going up which is better keep in mind we're also seeing volatility go down so there might be plays on uh uv xy as an example so this is a little tricky but just so you know uvxy is is essentially a ticker that goes up when volatility goes up so when volatility goes up you you can actually make a bet on this by having call options or just buying the actual taker right you have to be careful it's not a one-for-one correlation with volatility so you've got to be careful with that a little bit it maybe do some research on the actual ticker beyond what we're going to talk about here in this video uh but uh there's also the inverse of this but i personally prefer just take the uv xy and if you think this is going to go down like it probably will first thing in the morning tomorrow in fact right now we're expecting this to open up down three percent futures are gonna open up down three percent at least that's what futures indicate right now this isn't actually active right now yeah uh then this should also go down you know we'll see roughly three percent sometimes a little bit more and uh and there's an opportunity then if you believe that volatility is going to go back up second half of the day to maybe make a bet on this particular one this is to me like a perfect day in day out kind of trader stock so uh that's definitely one to watch okay good so uh those are my thoughts folks thank you so very much for watching check out the programs link down below i'm building your wealth there's a coupon code that expires on my birthday which is in five days you get 100 transparency as soon as i make trades
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