저자: VictorH · 외국인
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작은 헬스케어 보험사 Oscar Health를 매수 추천. 2021~2024년 매출 고성장(2021 +384%, 2022 +110%, 2023 +47%, 최근 +56%), 흑자 및 잉여현금흐름 개선. 보수적 FCF 추정 기준 시총 대비 약 121%, 현금흐름 할인모형상 약 90% 저평가 주장. 업종 전반 디스카운트로 2025년 헬스케어 반등 기대, 1~2년 보유 계획이며 달러비용평균법으로 분할 매수 예정.
다듬은 글
in this video I wanted to cover a small cap Health Care insurance company by the name of Oscar health and this stock I discovered really through just collaborating with another content creator who was interested in Oscar asked me for an opinion I hadn't looked at this stock so I I took a quick look at it and thought it was a really nice stock so I carried it into a live stream I did yesterday I did a deep dive into it and just everything I I saw was impressive just really good Growth Company with um very good profitability and incredible free cash flow so I did evaluation and I've decided to start buying this stock and I wanted to share with you what I'm seeing that's compelling me to become an investor first do I like this industry I certainly do it's not an industry that's been all that popular for investors but historically companies like United Healthcare really show that this industry is worth a lot uh United Healthcare is a big cap it's been a big cap for a long time last year or two it's been rough for this particular industry but that in itself provides an opportunity for investors investors to come in and pick up shares at a discount and I like discounts I like buying low and watching that investment go up now health insurance desirable because just think about the business model people companies buy health insurance and we pay our premiums and we send them into the insurance company they get our money they do their their best to basically expect to pay out less than the premiums they collected in this case here it's about a 80% ratio they're paying out 80% of the money they're collecting but they're collecting all the money at once so they get to hold that money invest it earn interest on it and we know that interest rates are going to stay a little higher for longer so they get to make money on the interest of holding those that cash and doing something with it so in general this is a really good industry the other thing too is customers tend to be sticky meaning people don't switch their health plan all that often it's kind of a pain in the neck right if you were to switch your health insurance company and your doctors every time you go to the doctor they ask have you had to change your health insurance because um there's a lot of paperwork involved and I think you know my experience with Healthcare is I like to keep it stable that way my family is well taken care of and I think a lot of people feel that way there's very little change over so Oscar tends to keep their customers as well as the other health insurance companies tend to keep their customers a long time so the customer acquisition costs are very rational so Oscar health I like the industry I like the fact that the Market's been really discounting healthc care stocks and um that's part of my reason to buy Oscar Oscar is a small cap stock with $ 3.37 billion market cap revenue is about three times High higher it's interesting that revenue is higher than the market cap they are profitable their forward PE is 17 very very good forward PE analysts say it's a hold but if you bought it you're getting a 60% discount and eight analysts are covering the stock so it's not just one person saying that that's pretty good to me it looks pretty good um over the past year the market has not been in love with this stock and frankly the market hasn't been in love with healthc care paying stocks we had the horrible situation with United Healthcare uh the CEO being assassinated in New York um there's there was some angst against the health insurance company and I know that you know the new Administration has a leader of the the health department um Kennedy he's supposed to be a really anti-health insurance company guy but I would say that um I think that story is a little overplayed I don't think that the new Administration is going to change health insurance benefits a whole lot because people will get very angry very fast if you start messing with that people buy health insurance companies so they can feel like they're taking care of themselves or families or loved ones and when um government starts messing with that it gets it gets pretty bad for whoever's in leadership very quickly so I think that the story um I think kenned is probably going to go after pharmaceutical companies that are doing like the weight loss drugs and maybe some drugs that are um you know helping people that didn't take care of themselves and that maybe people don't have a healthy life style so they depend on drugs and stuff I think that's his that's his angle and I don't know the guy all that closely but I think the story in general is overplayed and health insurance companies are receiving a lot of uh I guess negative tension most definitely over the last six months now I invest to buy low and see investment go high so um I'm okay buying and then holding for a year two years and then making a windfall um and I think if I buy the right companies that's going to be the case this is setting up really nicely now the stock has s um sold off in the last uh call it five months or so and I think some of these stories right United Healthcare the CEO the new Administration it's really having an impact on the stock price now the company is not the stock price and the stock price is not the company the company itself has has been really operating impressively here's the evidence for that statement 2021 they grew Revenue by 384 per.
2022 they grew by 110% 2023 they grew by 47% this last full year they grew by 56% tip my hat to Oscar Health that is tremendous very well done so they did it in this past year profitably impressive high growth impressive company and they did it generating free cash flow holy smokes we got a really impressive situation here so their fundamentals are looking tremendous we have eight analysts covering the stock and the worst case scenario is that an investor would lose basically 10% because the price Target's $1 the stock is trading at $346 the stock is up and after hours trading it's up 7% um and uh that's a pretty good bump um this this is Saturday morning so we're going to have a couple days to wait because we don't have trading on Monday so we'll see where that goes now the most optimistic analyst believes the stock is way underpriced it should be priced around its Target price is $28 which is well above 100% return and they're basing that on the current year uh performance the earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 77 cents and the growth is going to be according to analysts is going to be pretty favorable like 30 40% the company guided and said hey we're going to grow by 22% but management teams tend to guide with a very conservative number that they feel they can beat and that way when they get to earnings they're beating the earnings expectations and then raising and then they build momentum in their stock so that's what's going on there now um as we look at long-term growth these guys are just going to keep growing so that looks really really good and their profitability is going to expand so again as I look at this stock I'm like man this is a really good company it's a very good situation um health insurance is not something that hey you know it's kind of cool today and nobody wants it tomorrow no it's something we need today next year in 10 years health insurance is important so we can continue to live long healthy lives when we need need to go see the doctor we can go see the doctor if we need a surgery boom if we have an accident we're taken care of so the fundamentals look really impressive so I believe that osar Health using a very rational forecast on cash uh is discounted by 90% that's a heck of a discount and you saw where the stock has been it's been sold off you see that other analysts are really bullish on this stock and there's two super investors that are buying into Oscar one of them is Michael bur who started a position in Oscar and maybe that's where a lot of the chatter has been going on but um this stock based on free cash flows and I'm I'm using a a conservative free cash flow forecast I'm actually forecasting as the beginning Point uh 25% lower than their current year uh free cash flow and then I'm trimming it by 15% for the first four years bringing it down to 438 million so I'm expecting hey their cash flow is going to be a little bumpy it's going to be a little conservative it it'sit better than that then great but I'm just trying to be conservative even when I'm very conservative those cash flows are worth 121% more than their current market cap they hold a lot of cash and Investments and I didn't even include long-term Investments they have upwards of a billion dollars on this line these guys are just cranking out cash and loading their balance sheet they have very little debt so a very solid company that has little risk of going bankrupt nonetheless it's a small cap stock so I'm saying Hey I want a higher rate of return 11% is the discount rate I'm using on all these numbers even when I use those conservative factors I get a 121% discount based on free cash when I use their earnings per share give them an 18 this is a high Growth Company you could easily say 36 here but let's go 18 using a rational growth rate they're supposed to grow higher than that their the earnings per share is supposed to grow faster than that get a discount of 29% so when I blend the two I get to 90% discount that's a very attractive proposition and I'm going to buy shares of Oscar Health now when's this stock going to Rally of course I don't know and nobody knows I do know that if I look in the rear view mirror for the last two years health insurance has not been um a really desirable industry or yeah industry for the stock market and at some point that's going to turn I think the fundamentals I mean I'm showing you a company that's cranking out cash growing that Top Line just executing on every metric the Market's going to turn looks like you know a super investor like Michael bur he's a pretty smart dude and he's invested in the company so that is interesting so at some point I believe that the Market's going to turn and start liking health insurance companies and Oscar health is looking really good it's a small cap it can double in value very quickly this should be a really nice play for me I currently own elevance health which is in same industry much larger it's harder for elevance to grow fast like 50% Oscar could do that because they're small and they can grow very quickly also their market cap the stock could really fly up because it's only a three and some odd billion dollar market cap where elevance is much much larger so osar health is going to be a stock that I will be buying this coming week I'm a dollar cost average invest so I'll start a position and then buy over time especially I'll accelerate the buying if I see the health insurance is beginning to Rally because I I do think that this year health insurance will probably do well we have technology stocks that are really expensive and in some situations things are getting out of hand we have some financials that are getting out of hand I own Robin Hood it's wonderful to see the stock just fly up but the prices are getting pretty ridiculous and pretty irrational in some cases and I think investors are beginning to rotate into sectors that really have been discounted for some time and Healthcare I think is one of those sectors that is receiving new inflows of capital so we'll see I think 2025 may be the year for healthcare so that's my video on Oscar Health big thanks to the online community to for giving me this idea and uh I'm going to run with it and see if I can make some money and hopefully um you found this video interesting and I'd love to hear your comments on Oscar Health what you think the company and uh I really appreciate you watching good luck with your Investments
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