저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가 하락(약 5%)은 과도하다고 보며, 클라우드·AI 서버 수요 호조로 펀더멘털은 강세라고 주장. 블랙웰 지연설은 트렌드포스 보도 기준 B100/B200 출시 일정은 유지되고 대형 CSP 우선 공급 및 소형 고객용 B200A 전환으로 설명 가능하다고 해석. 엔비디아는 장기 최선호 포지션이며 $98~99 구간을 매수 기회로 봄. 피퍼샌들러 애널리스트가 꼽은 엔비디아·AMD·온세미 세 종목을 반도체 매수 기회로 언급하며, AMD는 개인적으로 수일 내 매수 예정이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
nvidia's stock is down roughly 5% today and after hours the stock is down another 1% on today's episode I actually want to take a closer look at some more updates impacting the rumors about blackw delay and I want to say these are pretty pretty good and are in my opinion painting a better picture of what's happening if the delays are true we also got some other semiconductor updates impacting overall Nvidia and we do have an analyst that believes there's three semiconductor companies that are sitting at attractive levels one is NVIDIA and I want to say I pretty much agree with this analyst on the other two so we'll take a closer look at all that in today's episode I want to thank the monoo all right so we can see Nvidia sitting at $99 the stock is down roughly 5% I don't believe there's any reason for the stock to really be down I mean let's just remember all the bullish cases Cloud Ser providers in the past earnings have mentioned that they're going to continue to invest in AI server and in AI infrastructure bullish for NVIDIA we saw super micro mentioned that they're expected a revenue growth to do amazing next fiscal year thanks to the demand of AI Solutions bullish for NVIDIA we saw AMD that they mentioned that the AI server Market is still very very strong and they are also seeing huge huge amount of demand so at the end of the day all this just points for bullish news for NVIDIA the only real bearish case right now for NVIDIA are these rumors of Blackwell delay and while I have done many episodes on that already we do have some updates today but just a quick recap if these delays are true and of My overall thoughts if these delays are true I don't believe it's necessarily a bad thing for NVIDIA as Nvidia has plenty of demand for the h100 and the h200 chip to be able to offset any Revenue lost from that Blackwell delay if it is also true I don't believe this is going to be bearish for NVIDIA as competition is nowhere near Nvidia in forms of techn technological software and infrastructure Solutions so even if Nvidia sees this delay I believe they will still be the number one leader so while delays can happen especially as companies like Nvidia develop revolutionary products in the short term I don't believe this is going to be anything bearish for NVIDIA outside of just this Market sentiment in the long term still big bullish on Nvidia and I'm going to guess if everything is going as we've heard from earnings these $98 $99 price targets are ones that we're going to find pretty cheap um in in the next few months or can consider buying opportunities obviously this doesn't mean go buy Nvidia stock o load uh or or load up on the the stock right that's your decision uh and the market is very volatile that hey look we can continue to go down from here and this is nowhere near the bottom but in the long term I believe Nvidia will do well and that's why it is my number one position now in previous episodes and this is the topic I really want to talk to you all about because a lot of information is here and hopefully I'm able to really say my thoughts about this because to me this now makes perfect sense so we have heard rumors about the delays of Blackwell and recently trendforce on August 7th did announce that despite recent rumors speculating on nvidia's supposed cancellation of the B100 in favor of the b200 a trendforce reports that Nvidia is still on track to launch both the b00 and b200 in the second half of 2024 as it aims to Target Cloud server providers additionally a scaled down version of the b200 known as the b200 a is planned for other enterprise Enterprise clients focusing on edge AI applications so if you have heard the rumors of these delays and the biggest thing about these delays is that there is some capacity issue with coas L an advanced packaging solution for from tsmc that is used to create the b00 and the b200 trendforce though mentions that while this is true that there is some issue with the capacity of coas L Nvidia has prioritized B100 and b200 for cloud serice providers customers with higher demand so it shows that and and because of that packaging issue and yield issue Nvidia is expected to create this b200 a which is kind of like a weaker down version and it's going to be using cot was as packaging technology so this now makes perfect sense of everything that's happened in in my opinion it paints a better picture right so yesterday we had super micro mention that they are or maybe might be expecting some delays in Blackwell and as you know the main customers for super micro are tier 2 cloud service providers it's not your big data center giants like Microsoft like Amazon like Google those are not the customers of Super Micro so what it what we're hearing here from trendforce is look Blackwell 100 and b200 are still in Target for release on schedule but because of yield issues and viia is Solly focusing those Solutions on those top players now for maybe the smaller companies the Enterprise clients for those focusing on things like Ed applications Nvidia is going to create the B2 200a and the b200 is what Nvidia is going to send out to your Dell to your super micro to your HP to to all those AI servers that are not building data sensors for these big cloud server providers so that's why I believe super micro yesterday kind of mentioned that there might be some delays because they might not be getting the B100 b200 because that's meant for the big cloud server providers so transfor TransForce anticipates that the p200a will have lower thermal design power so it's going to be more air cooled opposed to liquid cool so again something that super micro mentions that hey look maybe the advancements of liquid cooling is going to see some issues in the first half but later on it's going to continue to grow so oems are expected to receive the b2008 chips after the first half of 2025 providing suitable timeline to prevent conflicts with the ramp up of the h200 in the third quarter of 2024 and ensuring broader market adoption now I want to say this is making perfect sense if true and if you start to add all the pictures it's true that there is a delay but the delay is going to happen to not I want to say the weaker customers but not those big cloud serice providers like Amazon like Microsoft and all those other players so if this is true and again based on everything that we've heard this one looks like the most probable outcome I think this is going to be very bullish for the company as many people are going to be expecting delays and N Video is going to be like yeah we have delays but it's not necessar necessarily how you guys think about it we're still sending massive amount of ships chips to uh meta to Amazon to Google to Microsoft and to our smaller customers who are don't need these kinds of strength we're sending them this kind of scaled down version which we're able to produce at crazy quantity because it's using coas S packaging uh so those are my overall thoughts hopefully I was really able to kind of share what I was thinking there because I know this one is a little bit TR ke now I mentioned at the beginning of this episode that there is an analyst that believes there's three stocks in the semiconductor space that are sitting at tremendous opportunities after the selloff that analyst is Piper Sandler and the three stocks that he mentions are Nvidia AMD and ON Semiconductor Nvidia just because it continues to be the monster in the AI space AMD we're going to see on a bit but I want to take a closer look at ON Semiconductor first so on semiconductor right now is sitting at $663 the stock was down roughly 3% year to date the stock is down roughly 18% but we can see it is sitting about $6 higher from its 52e low of roughly $59.38 which it hit somewhere around April in my mid April so for those that are not familiar with ON Semiconductor the company just reported earnings and I actually did cover them on my ebook make sure to check it out on more semi investing.com where I believe I have over 20 companies already that have reported earnings in the semiconductor space this is an amazing ebook the great thing is if you purchase now you will get the updated versions as I post more companies in this ebook but we can see for ON Semiconductor they mentioned that they are seeing growth in Ai and data centers as they provide kind of solutions for the power power side and their addressable content is increasing from $2,500 to about $99,500 in kind of these AI Den data center racks as they increase from 40 Kow to 100 120 kilow so ON Semiconductor believes that they can definitely grow because of AI and data sensor the second thing is they believe that their silicon silicon carbide solution in EVs and Automotive can continue to grow we can see here they believe that they remain on track to outgrow the Silicon carbine Market by 2x in 2024 through share gain and their geographical and Market diversification strategy so again I cover so much about ON Semiconductor from executive sumary headwind challenges growth opportunities and so much more and I do this for all these semiconductor companies that have reported earnings so make sure to check out that ebook but I'm going to agree I believe the EV Market is going to turn around pretty soon I also believe ON Semiconductor has plenty of solutions to offer in the power space which is is obviously benefiting from things like AI from Data Center and the list goes on and on so I'm going to say the three stocks that um Piper s analyst talks about I believe are great buying opportunities right now from Nvidia to AMD to ON Semiconductor AMD right now is sitting at $128.6 I'm believe that AMD is definitely a tremendous opportunity this is one that I'm personally going to be buying within the next few days as as we continue to see this greaten buying this great value in my opinion I mean from AMD we just covered their earnings the company is T taking market share from Intel in both the consumer PC and the data center server CPU they're also having great solutions for the AI accelerator with their mi30 so for me AMD is definitely looking like one of those big good buys at these levels now AMD they did just get a price Target update from citic Securities to 184 from 125 now a quick look at PE ratios for these three companies Nvidia forward PE ratio sitting at 36 forward one year which is next fiscal year is 26.357896 forward one year now if on semi if the EV Market transform if they continue to work in on Power Solutions for data center I believe ON Semiconductor could be a very great stock um for investors that want to look into that space now like I mentioned if you want to learn more about the semiconductor Market check out my ebooks at more semi investing all my ebooks that I have are living documents where I update as we get more information for example this quarter 2 earnings as more earnings are coming out I will be sending out more updates and if you purchase the book now you will get the updated versions for free on your email so let me know in the comments below what are your thoughts on these three stocks that Piper Sandler announced AMD Nvidia and ON Semiconductor are any of these on your radar or only one of them in your radar let me know in the comments below I hope you also enjoyed today's episode take care have a good day and see you next time
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