저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나 검색 트렌드(증상·검사)가 반등 중이며 영국 사례 기준 3~4주 선행지표로 봄. 2차 확산 우려로 항공·크루즈·외식·여행 등 리커버리 주식은 조심하고, 기술주(애플 등)를 선호. 마진은 줄이고 하락시 분할 매수 권고. 과거 추천 실적(페로톤, 테슬라 등) 강조.
다듬은 글
rovide a new warning that i encourage all of us to pay attention to especially if you're exposed to stocks or you're thinking about getting into stocks i'll also make some more specific stock recommendations first before i discuss this morning i just have to get something off my chest i have to clarify this i'm not a prophet i am a reader i read a lot i get like every newspaper there is every magazine there is and i spend a lot of time reading and understanding what the heck is going on this is how i doubled my money in peloton quadrupled my money in tesla doubled my money in etsy apple amazon 5x my money in redfin and i plan to give these same stock suggestions because i gave all those stock suggestions before they doubled and quadrupled or whatever they're all on this channel and i plan to continue to give suggestions like this but it doesn't mean i'm perfect remember i recommended buying dave and buster's at 19 and i recommended selling it at 18 and 50 cents after the company's ceo started talking about starting a radio show at dave buster's i also recommended staying away from nikola when it was at 70 and 80 because we knew massive dilution was coming and i said don't touch it until it's under 40 and consider buying it as a hedge to tesla more heavily under 30 which is exactly what happened then it partnered with gm went up on euphoria to 45 50 and i said get out the gm partnership is a big mistake that was before all of the drama with nicola came out so we got lucky on the drama part avoiding that i pitched purple and i got made fun of for pitching a mattress company at 18 and it's at 26 now anyway the point of this isn't to say that i'm a prophet it's just to say that i'm a cautious optimist when i do my research and i read i try to do everything i can to understand risk factors and where there might be value i encourage investing in companies that have longevity in a proven business model but i also warn about dangers that come in the market and that's kind of what this video is so for example last week when i warned that donald trump having coveted is going to be a potential risk factor around day 8 9 and 10 which today is day 10 that doesn't mean it's going to happen that doesn't mean trump was going to die that doesn't mean trump was going to get worse it just means hey here's like a 10 to 15 risk factor that we should pay attention to and be prepared for and i always like preparing for the worst case scenario i don't like preparing for the best case scenario that's just called a good day and this is exactly why when donald trump was diagnosed last friday i said hey let's buy a little bit because there's a chance he might get better on tuesday when the stimulus talks died for a moment and donald trump was getting better i said yo course members everybody mentioned this on the channel too let's pick up some lemonade options because this is you know this might be a buying opportunity here those options are up like 30 000 in the last four days for me and i post these in my course for course members in in the money and stock course just any time i execute a trade but anyway i have a new warning i'm going to show you a chart here and i want you to tell me what you think about this this is my new warning so uh this is uh this is the chart here let me go ahead and remove myself just for a moment here this is the chart we've got a red line here and a blue line we don't know what this mystery chart is but uh i i mean the way i think we would describe this overall pattern is uh that we had this sort of up here in the middle uh and then this down but then all of a sudden we've got this recent inflection point right here where the trends of these data lines uh the trend lines are moving up again let's go ahead and uh if i told you that this was a 12 months let's go ahead and zoom in here to 90 days for the last 90 days so last 90 days we've got this relative decline here which is good but then all of a sudden right over here we've got this inflection point going up again which is kind of what we're seeing here when we look at this on sort of this 12-month period and this is a 90-day period well if you haven't yet guessed which is a good chance you probably already have take a look at what's happening with google trends search data for covet symptoms and covet testing now when i first said folks in the summer i see covid testing and covid symptoms search trends trending down that's good for recovery stocks and i started buying more recovery stocks in july which i sold off in august i mentioned pay attention to this covid symptoms and covet testing trend data and there were some people in the comments are like oh but kevin the trend data is just going down because well people know what the symptoms are and people know where to get a test okay well if that were true why over the last period of time here this is probably the last week are we seeing an uptrend again okay let's zoom in here to the 90 day same thing we're seeing the uptrend start right here at the beginning of the month about 10 days ago we saw this uptrend start this is very dangerous this is something that we have to pay attention to we do not want to end up like boris johnson and the united kingdom let's just uh read a couple things here uh in july boris johnson recommended that workers return to their offices and instead of having a broad-based plan for covent in the united kingdom their strategy was called a whack-a-mole strategy well folks the moles are winning that is now you've got people in the united kingdom saying quote we need a total lockdown yes tracking and tracing has failed infection rates have jumped we took the breaks off too early people don't adhere to the minimal rules we have it's the financial times today saturday edition it's not good it's not good at all but this chart here this is united states data we're just seeing this in the united states now and this is a leading indicator in fact you want me to really freak you out a little bit here i am talking about the united kingdom right well kevin if kelvin symptoms and culvert testing search trends actually matter then we should see a spike and then some sort of either continued spike or decline in the united kingdom right if it's a leading indicator don't fall off your chair folks here you go this is the united kingdom for covet symptoms and covet testing it's good that we've got a decline here but this spike remember folks the peak of the spike here is somewhere between there it is september 13th to september 19th this is a leading indicator now they are complaining about a total lockdown roughly three to four weeks later so the spikes tell you danger signs three to four weeks early let's go back really quick over here to this chart if we see a spike now and we continue to see this spiking sort of on the 90 day here then it could potentially be right before the election that we actually start having a substantially more serious outbreak of covin that actually shows up in the data in the case counts because remember you could have symptoms today but you might not actually think oh do i have to get tested i don't know maybe i'll get better people get worse oh crap i'm getting worse maybe i should really get tested those things take time the testing stuff has to be aggregated sometimes the tests take three days to get back depending on the type of test you do how accurately are they counting the rapid tests how quickly are those getting reported and then reconciled and then provided to the public it's a complete disaster this is just something to be cautious of and now i'm going to get into some specific recommendations first be very very careful of recovery stocks airlines cruise lines restaurants we thought that testing would work there was a headline just yesterday in the new york times airlines plan to go back under new testing regime and i'm thinking myself what did we just learn at the white house testing don't work because you could be contagious and no have no symptoms but be spreading covid like crazy and test negative on a rapid test it's not good on the first day you exhibit symptoms you are still 30 to 40 percent likely to test negative according to mit also not good so airlines cruise lines restaurants testing ain't gonna bail you out it's just not gonna happen so these are things to be cautious of now i have to say i did run through a mall the other day massed up with my p100 and my big filter respirator i got lots of looks the balls are dead and it's scary a lot of this is obvious right but keep these things in mind if you're thinking about investing in delta or simon or cheesecake factory and look they got curbside pickup and delivery you know those are things helping them a bit so you got to give the restaurant some credit for doing the curbside pickup that's been very very good so if anything you know maybe the curbside or the drive-through stuff is okay this is why chipotle with the chapatta lanes or whatever that's not what they're called but the chipotle lanes are doing so well but these increasing coveted cases for companies that don't have that flexibility like travel hospitality and some retail are going to rob profitability from these companies for years to come on average i anticipate that every six months we're on this pandemic we are going to lose two years of profitability from these companies we're already on month set we're six months set number two that is it's already been six months and now we're on the next set of six months so keep that in mind on tech in my opinion right now the goal is to focus on safety first i'd rather be diversified into multiple different tech companies than going all in on something it's not a good idea i'd rather be in apple than some brand new energy company that comes out and lets he uh releases a press statement that says we're gonna get into the business of making electric vehicles and charging stations but dude you've been losing money since 2015 you know how to produce solar panels but you're sucking at that and now just because you're getting into the electric vehicle space and charging station space people are supposed to believe you the speculative stuff just be careful not saying there's not a lot of money be made out there just be careful uh right now this is the kind of market where i'd rather pay a slight premium over my buy targets for safety but i'm also going to do that in a different diversified way excuse me i'm not going heavy on tesla right now individually but i will buy tesla as part of my 1337 portfolio which i've got a couple updates for that for you i'm also only buying on the dips which is kind of like ah come on kevin we know this okay buy on red buy on red but i i just want to reiterate this because when you see the stock market go green green green green green green it's kind of hard because you think to yourself like oh man just missed out more oh man just missed out more just be careful okay like no guarantees that we're going to see you know this second wave crush recovery stocks or cause softness in the tech stocks or whatever it's just something to be cautious of and this is why i'd rather put money and i am investing i'd rather put money into tech than recovery or speculative that's all i'm saying uh i'm also socking away cash every day we see this green and yeah sometimes i look i go man if i just put some of that cash in the market it would have had so much more money today and and i get that but i also got to be realistic that i'd rather have a cushion and safety net especially if you've got margin outstanding just as sort of an update i'm about two weeks away from being at zero margin completely paid off and i'm very very excited about that and then i'll only draw on that money if i have to close a real estate deal and then the goal is to pay that off right away again so uh now on which stocks to buy first go to medcavin.com right now i'm working on version 12 and here are kind of the things that i'm thinking about changing for version 12 and then you could always update version 11 to 12 pretty easily by just rebalancing the percentages it's pretty easy to do i'm probably going to include intel because of their mobile eye acquisition that israeli company that basically handles all of the self-driving for companies like bmw and neo it's a good play intel also manufactures their own chipsets which i think is actually a strategic advantage over uh nvidia for example and even though i love nvidia and videos obviously have been substantially outperforming intel i can't look at the past right now i'm looking forward we have nvidia and the portfolio we don't have intel in the portfolio so i'm still working out the details of that uh expi the real estate company uh exp paying attention to this one uh they've got a great model i don't know about you know 20 years from now but at least for the next 10 years expi seems really interesting and then i'll rebalance a couple of smaller positions and and usually what i do is when a certain stock skyrockets i reduce the allocation and when a stock uh plummets i'll uh i'll increase the allocation for now though really buckle up limit margin the second wave it's concerning to me and and the trend data is starting to turn up it's not skyrocketing yet right we're not seeing what we saw in the uk yet but uh but it's certainly trending up so keep that in mind uh this trend data is a leading indicator and it tells us what's coming it's very important i uh and no guarantees i'm not a prophet just providing information that's it ss if you like this sort of information make sure to check out my detailed analysis and uh you know my courses on real estate investing stock market investing my psychology of money course uh and of course th really really great programs if you want to make youtube videos there's a youtube course as well and folks we'll see you next time thanks you
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