저자: BuyHoldRant · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론은 UBS 목표가 대폭 상향(약 1,600달러)과 대통령 발언으로 급등. 화자는 시총 1조달러 수준에도 연간 순이익 1,000억달러 이상 예상 대비 PER이 낮아 저평가라고 주장. 메모리 경기순환 및 상품화 우려는 반박. 현재 포트폴리오 약 30%를 차지해 집중 리스크를 인정하며 1,000달러 이상에서 일부 매도(트림)를 고려. 보유 주식은 전량 유지 중이며 분기 실적 전 주가 흐름에 따라 대응 예정.
다듬은 글
Let's talk about Micron. Um Micron's also been killing it this week. It seems like it's mainly due to a new uh analyst rating from UBS. Uh let me pull it up here. Well, over the weekend before the analyst rating increased from, you know, I think $500 a share to $1,600. Like look at this analyst go. Um
Oh, there's an another one. I didn't even see this one coming. The 675 to 1200 almost 1200. But Yeah. Uh the UBS analyst uh raised it from 535 to over 1600 yesterday. Uh but over the weekend we also had a speech by um the president who also touted uh Micron. And that was just like came out of nowhere and kind of a surprise and a lot of people speculated that well, wait a second.
If if he owns Micron and he's touting it uh this might be a company that uh might get pumped and then we saw the 1625 analyst upgrade from 525. I mean Why was his price target 525 before? He is This is the key question. He was also touting the the factory that they're building in New York, which makes sense being
President wants to have wanting Yeah, wanting American jobs here. Um so it wasn't just like touting the company to just randomly tout the company. Um But I think it did come out that he owns uh some shares in it if I'm not mistaken. So does he? He cuz like he owns a bunch of tech companies now. Um and I think Micron is one of them.
Yeah. So going back to this uh UBS analyst, I believe the last time uh he changed his target, it was like maybe 510 before or something around there and then he upgraded to 535 and now there's had this huge jump, huge revelation of um $1,600 uh dollars a share. Uh so, what are what are your thoughts on the the price target itself and the market's reaction?
Well, I think the price target is finally something that seems reasonable to me, right? A $1,600 price target uh seems reasonable. Uh that that does not seem out of line. The fact that he went from $525 to $1,600 is where like I lose a lot of respect for the person, but um uh for the analyst, but uh but let's just look at Micron for for just stepping back and saying, "Okay, like is Micron again having crossed $900 a share, over a trillion dollar market cap, is it an overvalued company?" And here here's the way I would answer that question is how many companies do I know that are expected to have over a hundred billion dollars of profits in the next 12 months that are trading at less than a trillion dollars?
Do I know of any? Uh and the answer is no, I know of zero companies. Um the the in fact, the cheapest one of all the companies that I know that is going to make over a hundred billion dollars of profits is Micron. So, um you know, Micron is trading at a PE that's similar to uh the PEs of retailers, right?
Like uh the um Gaps or you know, like the the retailers they're traditionally like very low uh revenue growth and you know, not tech. And uh tech generally gets a much more uh lucrative price earnings ratio or price sales ratio. Uh and generally they're growing faster. So, and of course, Micron is getting this lower number because of the criticism that memory is cyclical and it's a commodity and anybody could make it, but it turns out that you know, the cyclical factor uh even if true, nobody knows when the cycle will end.
Um and when it ends, that might be that you know, the music stops for a lot of different companies, not just the memory makers. It might stop for AMD and Intel and Nvidia and Broadcom and you know, so many others. So, uh the cyclical argument doesn't hold water for me and then um and then the commodity factor, the fact that the only three companies make it in order to make the memory chips, you actually need $100 uh investments into uh factories that take many years to sort of bring online and these clean rooms.
So, you know, uh this is not something that uh is easily going to be um disrupted by some new entrants that we don't know about, right? So, I continue to love Micron. I haven't sold any shares. Uh I probably will start trimming soon if it if it crosses the $1,000 mark, but I fully expect to maintain the vast majority of the shares that I own.
Um the only reason I would trim is just to again, de-risk because it's already more than 30% of my portfolio. So, yeah. Has Has there been a stock recently that's been over 30% of your portfolio? The one that hit over 30% a while back was um Robinhood as it was climbing to you know, over as it was like going from $7 to over a hundred.
Yeah. I think what it topped at like 150, maybe? Mhm. Yeah, and I continued to trim as it was going up uh to to that price point. For me, it um Micron is undervalued even at $1,000 a share, but uh one of the things that um will happen once you know or is already happening is that it is a very large percentage of my portfolio.
So, it's just a very high-risk thing, right? Like once it becomes uh a massive portion of the portfolio, any kind of movement means the portfolio gets goes up and down by by this whale essentially that's in my portfolio. So, um despite that, I I have been holding on to 100% of my shares. I haven't sold any.
I do expect to trim over a thousand dollars a share. I don't know exactly when. Um And if it doesn't hit a thousand dollars a share before its quarterly report, then I will probably just wait it out until after the quarterly report unless things change. The things could change for a variety of reasons.
Additional information, macro level, the stock market in general might be suppressed or you know, like all kinds of things might affect my decision. And of course, you know, like I'm going to do whatever I decide to do. It's not like I'm 100% committed to anything that any sort of like target that I'm uh voicing here.
But, but I don't expect to sell any shares under a thousand dollars a share. So, that would be my perspective on it and I'll let Dustin speak to it as well. Yeah, so taking a step back irrelevant to Micron, if I'm going to take profit in a position I own, I think about three different pieces. The first is is has there been enough return for me to want to take profit?
In Micron's case, the answer is a big yes, right? Um The next piece is is the allocation of my portfolio, the percent allocation, completely out of whack or not. So, right now Micron Um, I think it's like 4% of my portfolio. Let me see. Uh, 4% does not add up. Not No, not at all. This could triple or quadruple and it would still be uh fine.
So, that that's a no. And then the third piece, unfortunately, but it's a reality, is I have to worry about taxes and is this sale going to be long-term or short-term capital gains? Uh, do I have losses that are going to offset this? Um, and at the moment, this is this would be a long-term capital or short-term capital gains uh for me.
So, that would also be uh an axe. So, when I think of those three pieces, ideally, two of them are a yes at a minimum. Or all three of them. Right. Right, exactly. So, um, at the moment, even if Micron keeps going up, I'm probably not going to be selling here cuz there's not enough reason for my specific uh circumstance uh to be selling.
I actually those are First of all, that's a fantastic way to look at it. I love the way that you broke it down into the three different things. And for me, the tax thing is also a major consideration as well because that makes a big difference. Uh, but in Micron uh in particular, even though it's short-term, I own a significant portion of my Micron shares in my IRA.
So, selling them in my IRA in particular would not have a tax consequence. So, that would be a no tax consequence and therefore that goes out of the picture. But you're right, if if it was if I was holding them all in non-retirement accounts, then uh they would they would be short-term and I would probably want to hold it longer uh because of that.
So, past the one-year one-year mark, for which for me be December 29th. Um yeah. But it uh uh for me it checks the other two. It it has tripled my almost tripled my average uh purchase price, and then it is a pretty wacky percentage of my portfolio at 30 31% yeah.
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