저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국-이란 협상(이슬라마바드, 4/11 시작)을 앞두고 협상 결렬 시 군사 재개 가능성이 거론됨. 협상 쟁점은 농축 우라늄·농축 권리이며 호르무즈 통행료는 부차적이라고 봄. 전쟁이 끝났다고 보고 전쟁 중 하락을 매수 기회로 봄. 하드웨어 AI 기술주(AMD, ARM)가 향후 몇 달간 중기 모멘텀이 있고, 소프트웨어는 3~6개월 더 바닥을 다질 것으로 봄. 방산 재고 보충 수요가 있다는 가설 제시. 영상 말미 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
This is it. Tomorrow is a critical day, not just for the future of J.D. Vance as a politician who will, in my opinion, likely be running against Gavin Newsom in the 2028 election. And this right here will be a pivotal day. What's happening at Islamabad, Pakistan? But Donald Trump tells us he's just reloading.
I wonder who could have given him that idea because here we are on X on April 7th, President Donald J. Trump makes the statement. They post this picture of this, you know, statement about the ceasefire. And then of course, one of the top responses is Real Meet Kevin, which says he's just reloading. Which is really interesting that we said that 3 days ago because now the New York Post says Trump tells the post he's preparing the military if Iran fails completely in talks.
We're loading up the ships. In fact, we're not just reloading the ships, we are, wait for it, using and reloading ships with the best weapons. We're going to find out within the next 24 hours. We're going to know soon, Trump said it in a in a phone interview. I got to work better at switching these accents.
We have a reset going. We've loaded up the ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made, even better than what we had previously. And we blew them apart. We absolutely obliterated them. We're We're loading up the ships. We're loading up the ships with the best weapons ever made, even at a higher level than we used to do a complete decimation.
And if we don't have a deal, we will be using them. And we will be using them very effectively. Like these are quotes. You can't make this stuff up. It's just hilarious. But anyway, you know, here's what you got to know about these negotiations. These negotiations are going to be taking place in Islamabad, Pakistan.
They're going to be taking place at a five-star hotel called the Serena Hotel in the northern part of Pakistan inside the red zone of Islamabad. Apparently, you can get a five-star hotel in Pakistan for $121 a night, which I have to say, a five-star hotel for 121 bucks a night it kind of seems like a deal if you ask me.
I mean, this this looks kind of cool. But anyway, this is all inside the red zone over here. And the red zone is basically where the foreign ministry is. I believe it's just Yep, there it is right above this. This is a heavily guarded area. They have a convention center here as well. Not exactly I think the talks are being held at the hotel.
But anyway, the military is all over this because obviously you've got a US VP, vice president, literally the vice president, coming to the region. The red zone, mind you, actually Pakistan in general, I should say, has only seen a US president or vice president visit really like once every 15 or 20 years.
The last time we had a president go was in 2006 when George W. Bush had the balls to go. And then in 2021, Joe Biden Joe Biden actually went as VP. Now, Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff were going. The Iranians do not really care for Kushner and Witkoff. Remember, Kushner and Witkoff, they were the negotiators in February where allegedly Kushner's like, "Yeah, man, we We offered them all the nuclear enrichment material that they would need for a peaceful nuclear program, and they denied us because they wanted their own enriching program." Now, that's just what's being reported.
Obviously, you know, things can get screwed up during a game of telephone, but I don't think the Iranians really respect Kushner and Witkoff very much, probably because they recognize, in my opinion, that other interests, including the Israelis, may have their pocketbooks. J.D., however, is seen as a political tool because J.D.
needs to get a massive win in this negotiation to set up his long-term political credibility and position himself as an anti-war individual, which Donald Trump did and that helped him win the election. That's really a topic for a different video. But J.D. Vance has apparently been rejecting Donald Trump's desire to go to war and continues the war.
However, J.D. has said, "Ultimately, I am your vice president, and I will support whatever decision you make." So, he is being a good steward of sort of being, you know, he's he's doing the job that he's in his place, right? He's in his place. Like if you got a boss, even if you disagree, you just sometimes got to bite the tongue, right?
That's what J.D.'s doing, but that actually makes him a smart contender, and that's why this negotiation for for 2028, and that's why this negotiation is sort of a test for J.D., and the Iranians know that. See, the biggest three issues that we face right now in this negotiation aren't really the tolls for the Strait of Hormuz.
Yes, I know this $1 per barrel could be the profit margins of the ships, but honestly, I think that's just going to get passed onto the market. And the dollar per barrel of oil toll is not really a major sticking point here. That's not what's going to stop this negotiation from falling apart. What really is is that you've got Aragachi, the foreign minister in Iran, who's convinced that they're willing to give up their highly enriched uranium and they're willing to stop enriching.
But then you got Galibaf, who's been the other lead negotiator, who's obviously very tight with the Ayatollah and the IRGC and much more aggressive. This individual basically says it is their God-given right to enrich. So, this is where sort of the big red line sits between the US and Iran. Then obviously, you have Lebanon, which frankly, I think Israel was just pissed off.
They were cut out of negotiations, and so they found a loophole, said, "Yeah, yeah, all right. Well, we'll go along with that 12-point plan." You forgot to mention Lebanon in your 12-point summary. Strikes, which you shouldn't laugh at. I'm I'm more making that as sort of like that's how casually I feel like Israel took it because Israel feels like they still have missions to do in Lebanon.
But on the flip side of that, you had over 200 deaths in in just the last few days with with hundreds of Israeli strikes, over a thousand people injured. I mean, it's absolutely terrible what's happening. And we can't I I think there's You can almost say with certainty not 100% of those people, men, women, and children who have died in just the last few days, are all Hezbollah terrorists.
The targeting is a little indiscriminate. It's a little Gaza 2.0, in my opinion. But anyway, this talk about Donald Trump reloading with now better equipment has a lot of people wondering, uh maybe this was the whole point. Donald Trump wants to prop up the uh defense and well, the defense industry to manufacture more weapons and to build our golden dome.
But in order to convince the defense contractors to manufacture more weapons, you have to go almost use the old stuff up and promise you're going to keep using because what the defense contractors do is they don't want to pull a king or a bum supply chain situation where they end up overbuilding manufacturing capacity and then a new president comes in and cuts all the capacity, right?
So, if we um if we take sort of the the whiteboard here. Where did I put my eraser? My eraser's gone. Anyway, if we use a whiteboard example of what I'm talking about here just so it becomes a little bit more clear. If this is your production capacity for the industrial military complex, let's just call this the T, the Tomahawk, okay?
This is the line of Tomahawk. Well, sometimes you're going to get Republican presidents who are like, "Bro, we need more Tomahawks. We need more." And then as soon as they ramp up production, then you get a Democrat president, let's say, who's like, "We need fewer Tomahawks." Now all of a sudden they've they're at overcapacity.
And And now they have to shut down and lay off people, and they've not, you know, they have equipment that they've spent CapEx on, capital expenditures on, that aren't being used. And And these defense contractors hate that. So, what they do is they purposefully have like a 2- or 3-year backlog to get through the political insanity of the ups and downs.
Donald Trump, some people are alleging, is is coming from the angle of you need to manufacture more. They're like, "Yeah, we've heard this before." And he's like, "I just used all the weapons. Can you make more now?" And they're like, "Oh, crap. Okay, like they're out. They literally need it." You know, even if a Democrat comes in, they need a restockpile because they've used that many bombs.
So, some people say this could just be, you know, a way to not only get rid of the old weapons that we've had because we've had certainly a lot of rockets and missiles that are, you know, a decade old. Not only a way to get rid of that and replace it with new stuff, but also a way to sort of prop up the defense industry with higher quality equipment and more manufacturing so we can have more equipment faster for that Iron Dome.
Some people say that's a link to this. But anyway, these negotiations are going to take place starting tomorrow morning, Saturday in Pakistan. From California, you are basically exactly 12 hours behind the time in Pakistan. So, and then if you're on the East Coast, it'd be 9 hours, right? They're 9 hours ahead of you.
So, the way to think about it is this. If you're going to sleep at midnight on the East Coast or 9:00 p.m. California time tonight, the negotiations are probably starting the very moment that you were going to sleep. So, you'll probably wake up to hearing something like, "The first day, we made great progress.
We met, we took a photo op. There's still work to be done, but we made great progress." I'm optimistic that the worst of this war is over. Uh and that's why we've not only bought the dip during the war, but afterwards, and probably will again before the market closes today. We have a very There are a couple sectors that that are worth you knowing about.
I'll just I'll just hand this one as a freebie to you, okay? Right now, hardware technology is where the next like few months of momentum is, okay? Software is probably still in a down momentum for the next few months. Hardware AI tech, you know, AMD ARM, don't forget about them, up for the next few months.
That's a short It's not really short-term. It's more like a medium-term trade to watch right now. Uh stay with me on the consumer stuff for now while oil is still 50% more expensive than what it was in January. Software probably won't bottom for another 3 to 6 months. But there are a lot of juicy opportunities already in software.
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