저자: ChamathPalihapitiya/RaoulPal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 장기적으로 10만~20만 달러 구간까지 갈 수 있으며, 2024년을 기점으로 매크로 사이클상 강세장이 시작된다는 낙관론. [비트코인 가격 전망] 발언자는 10만 달러, 15만 달러, 20만 달러로 단계적 상승을 예상했으나 시기는 명확히 하지 않았다(5~10년 가능성 언급). 확률 60%로 전통적 사이클을 따라 10만~20만 달러 도달, 20%는 대규모 기관 유입으로 기대 이상의 급등, 나머지 시나리오는 사이클이 앞당겨져 짧고 격렬하게 끝날 가능성. [채택 및 사용자 동향] 활성 지갑 수는 약 5억 명 규모로 추정되며 2022년 약세장에도 42% 증가, 과거 100% 성장률을 언급. AI보다 느리지만 인터넷·모바일보다 빠른 채택 속도를 강조. [규제 및 CBDC] 중국·인도·EU 등이 CBDC를 추진하며 자본 흐름 감시 수단으로 활용할 수 있다고 주장. 미국은 CBDC에 소극적이어서 비트코인 ETF를 통해 월가가 자본 흐름을 통제하려 한다는 해석 제시. [알트코인 및 사이클 구조] 비트코인 외 자산은 가치 없다는 시각은 틀렸다고 비판. 4년 주기(부채 리파이낸싱·대통령 선거 주기)가 비트코인과 전체 자산을 움직인다고 설명. 현재는 매크로 크립토 spring에서 summer로 전환 중이며, 고품질 토큰이 먼저 오르고 2025년경 알트코인이 전반적으로 폭등할 수 있다고 전망. [리스크 및 조건] 사이클이 예상보다 짧고 변동성이 클 가능성, 정부의 규제 지연으로 채택이 늦어질 가능성을 언급. 기간·확률은 발언자의 주관적 판단. [출연자 전망] 낙관적 장기 강세 전망. 구체적 목표가는 10만·15만·20만 달러 단계적 제시.
다듬은 글
traditional cycle and that pushes you know Bitcoin up to the 100,000 to 200,000 range and was laughing at me at cfpc every time I would talk about Bitcoin um where is it going it's probably going to 100 then 150 then 200,000 even in 2022 which was a bare Market the number of active wallets grew 42% I mean can you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it was at 200 and everybody was laughing at me on CPC every time I would talk about Bitcoin um where is it going it's probably going to 100 than 150 than 200,000 in what period I don't know 5 years 10 years but it's going there and the reason is because every time you see all of the stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge and it's going to eventually transition to something much more important but for right now you're just getting all these data points that prove this thing it's just the fabric of society is frayed and until we figure out how to make it better it's time to just have a little uh schmuck insurance on the side and everybody's running in it's just an incredible thing I could never have imagined it how far are we from real Mass adoption if so if I there's two ways of looking at this one is crypto.com have their own um kind of very detailed analysis of the number of active wallets of they they've got 516 million kind of adds up if you look at coinbase users there 110 million coinbase accounts not all of them are active obviously right now there's about 10 million active um binance at about 150 million you know then there's a whole bunch in India there's a whole bunch of stuff so it's about 500 million people wallets what however we want to look at it right so that's a reasonable amount and it's been growing at 100% a year even in 2022 which was a bare Market the number of active wallets grew 42% wow I didn't know that so it's growing incredibly fast I've said for a long time it was the fastest adoption of any technology the world's ever seen faster than the internet faster than mobile phone faster than a television but obviously AI just overtook that it got zero to 100 million in five weeks but still the pace of adoption is is ridiculously big so even if we extrapolate out the trend in a year's time we're a billion maybe it's maybe the trend slows maybe it's 750 Million by the end of 2024 you very soon get to very large numbers two three four billion people so we are still early but we're not super early you know and I I would suggest that the cycle that lies ahead that we've started is probably the cycle I refer to as the everything everywhere all at once cycle where we do see adoption from every angle maybe it's fine to set a precedent for ethereum but then that sets a precedent for 50 other things right and then they've lost control so the best thing is unless you've got the Bulls of of Brad and others unless you can get it to court and get it agreed it's very difficult for people and that's how they like it the maximum uncertainty makes it just impossible for anybody to do it so it just slows down the progress I think actually what they're trying to do is slow it down yeah because if they accepted it too fast it will it's like kindling right as we know and we saw the same in China and India and the EU is they're like okay first we need to understand what the hell this is second and this is a thing that most people won't like second we need to figure out our Central Bank digital currency so then we can know where the capital is going because if Central Bank digital currency is on blockchain Rails then you can see the connection as it goes onto onto the distributed Ledger systems China did that they closed converted to a cbdc essentially and they will reopen for Capital flight that reopen via Hong Kong because now they're in control of the money they can see where it goes blockchain's a gift for them because they can see the dollar that John spends they can see exactly where it goes around the system now they may not use it against you it may be amazing data that we can analyze economies with there's many things good things that can happen interesting enough the US is dragging their heels on this as well while the UK is moving there as fast as possible the EU is doing a decent job Switzerland Hong Kong Singapore India's still slow because it's not rolled out to its digital currency yet um and it's got It's got closed Capital account so it doesn't want money to leave too fast so they need to figure that bit out but interesting enough when I spoke to sub nundu mahanti who is the chief fintech officer for Singapore the monetary Authority for Singapore he's like he spends all his life um with the bis and the blockchain initiatives and the cbdcs he's like yeah we're all sharing notes and working together and figuring out how to do this he said there's one black hole the US they won't even talk to us they won't even talk to the bis they won't talk to the UK Switzerland anybody about cbdcs because they don't want it because they're scared so then once you think of that narrative that I've laid out yeah then you understand why the Bitcoin ETF is something they want why because it's now in the hands of wol Street and away from the decentralized world so you you basically got control over the capital flight and they know that that's going to mop up huge amounts of demand and stop people going to the distributed version of it right oh that's excellent and it makes sense I I get why they're doing it and actually for retail in an ordinary course of events it'll work fine but they're not really in the crypto system they're basically tourists cuz they don't have their own ownership over their assets which is the the problem that crypto is around built for in the first place right you know Bitcoin has a very clear narrative it's a super secure chain it's battle tested absolutely everyone knows what it is that's all you need but what they've then said is well nothing else should have value which is this kind of intellectual weird place to end up because these other things are networks of which people are building entire businesses use cases defi system nfts all of this stuff stable coins that's not happening on bitcoin these are different types of use cases for a blockchain and I just don't see how that kind of weird intellectual knot they get themselves tied up in to say well everything else is a scam and it's all worth zero that's just stupid all ass ass sets are going up and down in this 4year cycle as is the economy as our interest rates it's all due to 2008 and resetting interest rates back to zero all the government major governments around the world they then issued their debt in this 3 to fiveyear sector so let's call it four years on average and this debt refinancing cycle is the cycle that drives Bitcoin all crypto all assets it's also the presidential cycle they're all the same thing right now right this is this super correlated world yeah so within it the first part what I call macro spring which is what we've been in the early part of a bull market when inflation is starting to fall growth is still falling but starting to try and stabilize somewhere normally that's when Bitcoin outperforms it's like in the beginning of a bond market rally it's treasuries that outperform then as people get confidence and more liquidity comes in the system they start taking more risk and it goes further out the risk curb and that's when the alts start performing so we're transitioning currently from macro crypto spring to macro crypto summer so that's what's known as old season it starts with the high quality tokens first and then at the end of it in 2025 it's kind of everything goes up ridiculously I've got three outcomes in my head that I'm juggling with the 60% probability is we have kind of a very traditional cycle and that pushes you know Bitcoin up to the 100,000 to 200,000 range and you know all the other assets accordingly where they are on the risk curve there's a 20% chance this early start is signifying something much bigger which is the the larger adoption and the more Capital into the space which leads to larger price Rises Than People expect cuz people are quite scarred because the last cycle seems shorter than most most people expected everyone thought there was another final leg high that never really happened the kind of 100,000 Bitcoin the laser eyes idea never got there but maybe this time the shock is for excess returns Beyond expectations the other side that I I grapple with as well is well maybe the whole Cycle's front loaded and in fact it's shorter but more violence in 2024
Comments 0