저자: DebeloMong · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥이 7일 연속 상승하고 RSI 80 이상으로 과열 구간이라 조정 또는 숨 고르기가 임박했다고 주장. 엔비디아가 장대 음봉으로 실질 8% 하락한 점을 근거로 듦. 개인투자자의 추격 매수를 경계하며 현금 비중 10~30% 확보와 단기 스윙 차익실현을 권고. 장기 투자자는 단기 변동을 무시하고 보유하며 조정 시 추가 매수하라는 입장.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Deb subscriber comments with you today. One comment read, "No matter how much I tell you, retail investors can't stand FOMO and keep buying by finding reasons to hold on; their pattern remains unchanged." So, in today's video, I would like to discuss this pattern and cycle. Let's , which had surged to 210 million won, has fallen to a 112% return, and you can see that profits have dropped below 200 million won.
My domestic account has also dropped to an 88% return and a profit of 10 million won. The profits in my second account have likely dropped as well. On top of that, Bitcoin profits have plummeted, dropping from 290 million won to 270 million won, a loss of about 20 million won. The rising exchange rate is providing some slight protection.
So, at this point where it looks like a fall is imminent and the urge to sell is strong, I will discuss today the situation where you should sell and where you should continue holding without selling. Let me speak clearly about this. Now, looking at the US stock market yesterday and the current full market, it appears that the "Kima" (Keema) phase I mentioned is finally beginning.
What this means is that while the Moderon DAO has risen for two consecutive days, the Nasdaq, which has risen relatively recently, has fallen the most, followed by profit-taking selling pressure on the S-500. In other words, although we do not know how much the Nasdaq and S-500 will fall or for how long, the possibility of them taking a breather has increased.
The S-500 hit an intraday high, and retail investors bought up everything early in the session, but it appears to have finally hit the peak and is now declining. The Nasdaq also ended its seven-day winning streak. What is quite interesting is that regarding the puddles of April and June shown over there, I told you that you should "snap up" in such puddles, but everyone hesitated to buy because they were afraid it would fall further.
However, contrary to expectations, the stock market did not wait for the majority and surged; as the Nasdaq had already risen for seven consecutive days—reaching a state of extreme overheating—people began to rationalize their actions in various ways... Pressing the buy button is the typical pattern of retail investors.
The reason I feel like a correction is about to begin, that a leveling up is likely to occur, and that the market is taking a breather is precisely because Nvidia, the leading stock of this bull market, has effectively fallen by 8%. As you can see from Nvidia's long bearish candlestick, it rose 4% in the early trading session but ultimately closed down 4%, effectively recording a decline of 8%.
Also, there was a period in March of this year similar to now, when the market surged in the early trading session but showed a massive bearish candlestick as profit realization occurred. Such a long bearish candlestick following a short-term surge is a candle that signifies a high probability that a time for a temporary pause has arrived.
Of course, we cannot predict with 100% certainty that a correction will come or that there will be a pause, but statistically speaking, we honestly knew that we should have been cautious because it was in an extremely overheated state, and I shared this in my videos yesterday and the day before. However, the thing is, during this period which was clearly an overheated zone to anyone, the majority of retail investors pressed the buy button.
New buyers purchased Nvidia, and Western... Just as retail investors were net buying Nvidia, we can see profit-taking occurring perfectly. Isn't that fascinating? They bought because it looked like a point where it would go up, yet profit-taking sell orders poured out without any major negative news.
And ultimately, the stock market pattern is that it only starts to rise again once retail investors have sold and been wiped out. Now, regarding Nvidia, I uploaded a video stating that even if it rises further, it is now in the realm of holders, and that I would not buy until it drops for the time being, but rather wait for the moment.
Just yesterday, I wrote a video titled, " Ultra-heated US stocks: You absolutely must not buy right now; buying now is basically proving that most of you are gay." And now, you can see the current daily Nasdaq chart, which is strikingly about to start to fall. I was n't simply saying that you shouldn't buy because it has risen a lot.
As you can see in that video, after synthesizing various data and information, I shared with you yesterday that a correction usually begins when the Nasdaq forms a 7-day consecutive upward pattern and the RSI rises above 80. However, it seems human instinct is unavoidable. Ironically, human instinct makes us think that if it goes up, it will go up even more.
When it drops, you start thinking it will drop even further. So, when it rises, you press the buy button out of fear it will go up, and when it drops, you press the sell button out of fear it will fall further. No matter how much I tell you not to buy and that it is the domain of holders, you think, "I should buy now.
It seems okay to buy until the US presidential election. Let's buy unconditionally by mid-July. It is a must." You can't resist the temptation and bought yesterday. You rationalize it by saying, "The best time is when you think it's too late." In fact, while looking at the comments, I mentioned that I am detecting a comment pattern occurring somewhere in the classic market.
When this dominates psychology to a certain extent, you display the typical behavior of a retail investor in the comments, thinking that it will go up even more just because it is rising, saying things like, "Stop the [ __ ]. I put Philadelphia Semiconductor in last week and it went up 88%. Hold on now.
I'm going in tomorrow right away." And then, unbelievably, semiconductors crash. I am emphasizing to you that you must always be part of the tiny minority and act contrary to the majority. Of course, overcoming instinct is not easy, but you must gain the conviction to learn through my videos. It may not be easy, but you must act contrary to me.
I tell you to enjoy it when it rises and to scoop up the dips. In reality, I... In the membership Telegram, regarding the reason for buying in April and early June and currently observing the market, I shared data stating that the current market is somewhere in the overheated zone. I explained that when the RSI is 80, there is always a high probability that a correction or bear market will follow in the short to medium term.
Therefore, I shared data suggesting that one should either increase cash holdings or observe the market now. Additionally, regarding the swing trading I entered, I feel that buying pressure is gradually weakening, so I am preparing to take profits on my swing trading stock, Excel, if a bearish candle appears.
I mentioned that I plan to take profits when a bearish candle is visible, indicating that I have set the timing for taking profits on the swing trading stock. Then, there might be another question: "You are saying that we are at a peak now, so should I sell now and then re- enter if a dip forms?" I would say no.
This relates to the content of today's video thumbnail, and I will explain under what circumstances one should sell and under what circumstances one should simply hold. First, regarding swing trading. For stocks entered for swing trading that were intended for short-term investment, I tell you that it is okay to sell them now.
And secondly, 2.5 million won annually... Regarding tax savings, you need to save 2.5 million won in taxes every year. For those who haven't done so yet, I think you can sell that portion now, or you can wait until the end of the year for peace of mind. Finally, the third point concerns situations where you have no cash reserves.
If you don't have cash reserves, you won't be able to buy when a dip forms. For those individuals, I believe now is a good time to rebalance and sell to increase your cash reserves to around 10% to 30%. However, if you are a long-term investor like me, you should ignore short-term fluctuations—whether it means your 200 million won profit is broken or your earnings are temporarily cut by tens of millions of won— and simply continue holding with me, maintaining the perspective that your assets will eventually grow in the long run.
I also hold onto the position I entered as a swing trade; I do n't know how low this profit will drop this time, but my plan is to just leave it alone and pick up more when it dips. This is because I know that eventually, while repeating cycles of freezing and falling, the asset will gradually rise higher.
Now, have you all heard of André Kostolany's "owner or dog walking" theory? He [regarding] the up-and-down movement I likened the stock market to a dog on a walk and the economy to an owner simply walking away. In other words, the economy and corporate profits move with long-term trends without significant volatility.
From a long-term perspective, the earnings of the US economy and Big Tech companies eventually show an upward trend. But what about the stock market? The stock market rises and falls sharply under various pretexts, exhibiting significant short-term volatility—short-term ups and downs. Therefore, we must utilize this volatility.
When the stock market rises sharply, you should enjoy the account gains, and when the market forms a dip, that is the time to convert your pension into assets. Let's think carefully. When the Nasdaq rises for seven consecutive days, do you view this as a bullish zone, or as a dip where you should buy and "buy the dip"?
With seven consecutive days of gains and an RSI above 80, while there is certainly a possibility of further increases, that is the realm of holders. Naturally, this is not a time to buy, but a zone where you should observe and enjoy the surge in your account. And now, it seems like it is about to take a breather, doesn't it?
In other words, when a correction or bear market arrives, you must seize that opportunity. So, now again... You need to be prepared to seize the opportunity. Now, do you understand why patient people succeed? Even if you want to buy at a peak where it seems like it will rise further just because the Nasdaq has risen for seven consecutive days, you must be patient and wait for a dip.
This is easy to say, but because patience is much harder than it sounds, it is a system where only a tiny minority eventually become wealthy. I always tell you that your precious life, which you live only once, shapes the next outcome based on the choices you made just a few days ago. Some people wonder if the market is overheated, while others hold back and endure even though they want to buy.
These choices shape each of your lives. In other words, to succeed, those who choose the right method—even if it is difficult—and persevere to the end with tenacity, patience, and determination are the ones who reach the top 1% in a capitalist society. I hope that is you, the very person watching this video right now.
Where else would you find someone who shows you everything firsthand, shares the account profits going down with you, and shares the "boom" when profits drop—all of this? You just need to walk alongside me. I will take the lead and act, so let's go all the way together. then. See you in tomorrow's video.
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