저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스의 투자 원칙 3가지를 소개하는 영상으로, 특정 종목 방향 예측은 없고 시장 사이클과 리스크 관리에 대한 일반론이 중심이다. 핵심 주장 1: 시장은 공포와 탐욕에 의해 움직이며 낙관과 비관이 사이클을 따라 순환한다. 근거: 닷컴 버블(late 90s), 2008 금융위기, 2020년 시장 폭락을 사례로 듦. 결론: 과열(버블)기에는 조심하고 공포가 극에 달했을 때(bust 단계)가 투자하기 좋은 시기라는 워런 버핏 인용 제시. 핵심 주장 2: 리스크 관리가 가장 중요하다. 근거: 시장이 떨어져도 완전히 무너지지 않도록 포트폴리오를 구성해야 한다는 논리. 비유: 평균 수심 5피트 강이라도 일부 구간이 7~8피트면 6피트 남성은 익사한다는 이야기로 평균이 아닌 최악 구간을 고려하라고 강조. 핵심 주장 3: 확률 분포를 이해하라. 방법: 최선·최악·가능성 높은 시나리오를 각각 계산한 뒤 주식에 지불할 가격을 판단. 근거: 2020년 3월 폭락 같은 블랙스완 이벤트 가능성 언급. 조건/리스크: 블랙스완과 극단적 하락 가능성에 대한 경고가 전반적으로 깔려 있음. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 전망이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 영상 말미에 유료 멤버십(Patreon VIP)에서 매수·매도 시그널을 공유한다는 홍보가 있음.
다듬은 글
howard marks is one of the greatest investors of all time his legendary investing memos are read by the great warren buffett and he's the founder of oaktree capital one of the world's greatest investment firms so in this video i'm gonna reveal my take on howard mark's top three rules for investing success but and if you wish to take things a step further then feel free to click that first link in the description below you'll be taken to the patreon page where you'll be able to find out more about the vip membership group this is where i reveal my buy and sell signals so when i make my moves you can make your moves in addition to my entire investing portfolio including the stocks and the story of how i built that portfolio from just twenty thousand dollars to over two hundred thousand dollars so first link in the description if you wanna find out more about that but that being said let's dive in so rule number three understand where we are in the market cycle now howard marx is famous for believing everything is governed by cycles the stock market credit real estate and of course investor psychology now the stock market is generally governed by fear and greed where you have pessimism and optimism and they tend to rotate and change as the market moves through different cycles now when optimism is overly high and overly exuberant this is when we see a market bubble this happened during the tech bubble in the late 90s 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 market crash just before that happened and just after that happened we have a stock market crash then there is fear there's blood on the streets there's despair that is actually one of the greatest times to invest and in the boom bust stock market cycle that is when we're in the bust stage history does not always repeat however it does rhyme so just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again in the future but generally things tend to follow similar trends when we tend to see overly optimistic too much excitement too much exuberance too much risk taking going on in the stock market that usually happens when we're in a bubble and then a crash tends to happen and after when people are fearful and they're running away from the market then that is usually when it's a great time to invest in the words of the great warren buffett be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful this brings me on to rule number two by the great howard marks always control your risk and start with that first so how mark's philosophy is basically if the stock market goes up your portfolio will benefit however if the stock market goes down you won't be wiped out completely and you'll still survive there's an old story about the six foot man that drowned in the river that was only five feet on average it doesn't matter if the river's only five feet on average if at one part in the river it's seven or eight foot because then still the six foot man is going to drown so this is what you have to understand in the market and this brings me neatly onto rule number one of the great howard marks and that is understand the probability distribution so when you're making your investing decisions understand that there are multiple outcomes calculate a best case calculate a worst case calculate a likely case and then use that to judge what you're willing to pay for a stock because there are multiple possibilities including a black swan event and we saw this in 2020 with the march crash but that being said i hope you guys enjoyed this video you did find some value if you did please do big thumbs up and go ahead and and if you want to take things a step further first link in the description below that'll take you to the patreon page where you where you can find out more about the vip membership group where you'll gain access to my buy and sell signals so when i make my moves you can make your moves in addition to my entire investment portfolio the stocks and the story of how i built that portfolio from just twenty thousand dollars to over two hundred thousand dollars but that being said i hope you guys enjoyed this video and you did find some value and i'll see you guys in my next video invest safe you
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