저자: Ben · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 비트코인을 투자가 아닌 투기 자산으로 평가하며, 블록체인 기술은 긍정적으로 보나 비트코인 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 단기 예측은 없다. [비트코인 개요] 2021년 1월 기준 3만 달러 돌파 신고가. 2018년에도 약 2만 달러까지 올랐다가 폭락한 전례가 있음. 비트코인은 기업이나 주식이 아닌 자산으로, 가치는 다른 사람이 지불하려는 가격에 의존한다고 설명. [기관 긍정 신호] 2020년 10월 스퀘어가 약 5천만 달러(코인당 약 1만 달러)어치 비트코인 매수, 이후 약 3배 평가이익. 페이팔도 2020년 10월 암호화폐 매수·보유·매도 서비스 출시. [캐시 우드(ARK Invest) 강세 견해] 비트코인이 암호화폐 생태계의 준비통화 역할을 하며 안전자산 성격을 가진다고 주장. 블록체인 중 보안성이 가장 높다고 평가. 2017년 이후 확신이 커졌다고 밝힘. 다만 ARK 펀드에는 비트코인 직접 보유가 현재 없고, 2015년 1%로 편입 후 비중이 10%까지 커져 매도했으며 과세 문제(비적격 소득)로 현재는 재정 포지션 등에서 약 7% 보유한다고 언급. 영상 진행자는 ARK가 스퀘어·페이팔 등 비트코인 수혜 종목을 편입한 점을 지적. [워런 버핏 약세 견해] 비트코인은 내재가치가 없고 '쥐약'·'쓰레기를 거래하는 것'과 같다고 비판. 생산성이 없는 자산이라 결국 더 큰 바보(greater fool)에게 파는 구조라고 설명. 투기와 도박 성향을 자극하는 자산이라고 봄. 튤립 버블 사례를 언급. [레이 달리오 우려 3가지] 비트코인형 대체통화는 (1) 교환 매체로서 불편함, (2) 가치저장 수단으로서 변동성이 지나치게 큼, (3) 정부가 통제·규제하려 할 것이라는 문제가 있음. 금은 중앙은행 준비자산 3위로 여전히 역할이 있다고 언급. 디지털화된 법정화폐는 더 확산될 것으로 봄. [진행자 결론] 블록체인 기술은 유망하나 비트코인은 투자보다 투기에 가깝다. 장기적으로 정부가 통화 통제를 포기하지 않을 것이므로 정부가 비트코인을 흡수하거나 자체 디지털 화폐를 만들 가능성을 제시. 간접 투자 대안으로 그래픽카드 강자 엔비디아 제안(2018년 비트코인 붐 때 주가와 실적 급등 사례 언급). 특정 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간 예측은 없음. [출연자 전망 요약] 우드: 강세(장기). 버핏: 약세(내재가치 없음). 달리오: 대체통화로서 회의적, 금 선호.
다듬은 글
hey everyone ben here and welcome to motivation to invest let's talk bitcoin now a lot of you guys have messaged me and you've asked me to do a video on bitcoin so reluctantly i'm doing a video on bitcoin now let's dive into the headlines first of all so bitcoin has recently made headlines for hitting all-time highs at over 30 000 per coin but let's just talk some facts real quick back in 2018 this same thing actually happened so bitcoin hit around 20 thousand dollars before crashing massively and what was known as the bitcoin bubble so the real question is is bitcoin now a legitimate investment or is it still pure speculation well in this video we're going to find out now i don't consider myself an expert on bitcoin or cryptocurrency and i'm not going to pretend i am like many of these people i see on youtube are instead i'm going to get words of advice from some of the greatest investors of all time we're going to see what their thoughts are on bitcoin both from a bullish standpoint and a bearish standpoint to help us make our own investing decision so before we dive into that if you're new around here why not consider joining the investing family by hitting that subscribe button and turning that notification bell on and if you enjoyed this video and do find some value please give it an early thumbs up that really helps us to wake up the youtube algorithm so let's just level set this channel motivation to invest specializes in finding quality companies to invest into those with strong competitive advantages which actually provide real products and services to people in the world now bitcoin is not a business it's not a stock it's what's called an asset but really the value of this asset is only based upon what somebody else is willing to pay for it but let's dive into some recent bullish headlines for bitcoin so in october 2020 square purchased 50 million dollars of bitcoin at around 10 000 each so since then square has made around 3x on that initial investment in paper profits so square said it was making the purchase because it believes bitcoin has the potential to be a more ubiquitous currency in the future calling cryptocurrency an instrument of economic empowerment that provides a way for the world to participate in the global monetary system now bitcoin seems extremely popular in square's cash app which is targeted at millennials but square is the only one paypal another fintech provider historic fintech provider also followed suit so in october 2020 paypal launched a new service enabling users to buy hold and sell cryptocurrency and then paypal then proceeded to go up and buy over 70 of the newly mined bitcoin in october 2020.
so these were two major bullish signs for bitcoin so an argument can be made that these financial providers do see value in bitcoin because their customers many millennials want to use bitcoin and don't trust normal currencies such as the dollar which is understandable due to all this crazy money printing going on now let's have a few words from kathy wood the ceo of arc invest an investment firm which specializes in disruptive and innovative technology and they were the best performing fund of 2020.
go for it kathy and it's once again flirting with twenty thousand dollars can you put a price on your level of bullishness we are extremely bullish uh our confidence in it has gone up since 2017 because what we saw as as it dropped from 20 000 to below 4000 it actually got in well into the threes i think in 2019 uh was that bitcoin's share of the crypto asset ecosystem moved from the low 30 range in terms of value network values into the low 70 range and what did that tell us that confirmed in our mind that bitcoin is the reserve currency of the the crypto asset ecosystem uh so it is the reserve cryptocurrency which is a very important role it's the flight to safety currency uh it is bitcoin's technology uh or bitcoin's blockchain is the most secure of any other blockchain and so it makes sense that bitcoin would be the reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem so i do agree with arc invest on some of their points if you're going to invest into a crypto currency bitcoin does seem like the reserve currency for all these other crypto currencies because there's so many right now and so many new initial coin offerings or icos as they're known so one advantage i would say of bitcoin over all the other cryptocurrencies is it does have a strong brand everybody knows what bitcoin is this is similar to the way gold has seen as a hedge against the weakening dollar however interestingly enough i asked myself the question ark seems very bullish on bitcoin but do they actually own any bitcoin uh so i did a little bit of digging and i couldn't see if they actually own any bitcoin so diving into their fintech innovation etf the arc f holdings um we've got 45 holdings here i can't see bitcoin anywhere they do have square as their number one position which makes up 10 of the fund and they also have a large position of paypal making up nearly four percent of the fund so by then being bullish on bitcoin and potentially pumping it up that will definitely help the arc fintech innovation fund now i'm not saying our convention is doing this but it does seem quite interesting but that does give an option to some of you guys who may want some exposure to bitcoin but also still invest into reputable companies so you could invest into square and paypal both fantastic companies i did a full video doing a comparison between these two companies so i'll leave a link for that video in the description below so far as i can tell there has been no bitcoin in the ark innovation etf for more than a year and a half how come yes well we uh put it in at a one percent position in 2015 when bitcoin was 250 and uh and we scaled with it we didn't sell it at all so it hit uh uh 10 of the portfolio at which point we were forced to sell and we and at the same time there were there was some forking taking place so we were getting distributions uh and what we learned is that uh that bitcoin threw off what's called unqualified income which is not illegal but from an irs point of view if our portfolios generate more than 10 percent of gross profits in unqualified income which is usually commodity-like income uh the irs allows that 10 percent and then we'll confiscate the rest of it so if we moved into a black swan event where the equity markets imploded and bitcoin took off uh our our uh clients uh would uh would uh be able to keep only 10 of that gain and we just thought this was uh this was too much of a risk from the fiduciary point of view uh to subject our uh investors to so what we did is we moved out of it in um early 18 better lucky than smart because of course we went from 20 000 down to at the end of 17 down to below 4 000 earlier this year in our fully discretionary portfolios where we are not subjected to the 40 act rules of the sec uh our bitcoin position is about uh 7 right now uh so that is how optimistic we are on it now let's just get things straight blockchain is a technology i'm extremely bullish on and i do see a lot of potential for that in the future now bitcoin is just one application of blockchain but there are so many other applications we can look at in the future so now let's have a few words from a bear on bitcoin so this comes from arguably the greatest investor of all time the legendary warren buffett he states bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is basically like trading turds now these are his words not mine so all you bitcoin bulls out there and comment your thoughts below on buffett but here's the clip from warren buffett go for it warren charlie said bitcoins like rat poison you were asked about that comment and you said well it's probably more like rap poison squared uh charlie went on in the meeting to then basically call bitcoin turds he is an expressive sword maybe when he gets a little older he'll mature i just want to ask you about that because it sparked so much controversy when you buy a farm uh you look at the crop every year and what prices are and you decide whether it was satisfactory investment i mean you look to the asset itself and what it produces for you when we buy a business we look at what the business earns and decide how we feel about it in terms of what we paid but we are buying something that at the end of the period we not only have what we bought in the first place but we have something that the asset produced and when you buy non-productive assets all you're counting on is whether the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along but the asset itself is creating nothing it was but at the end of the time there's one bitcoin sitting there and now we've got to find somebody else and and they come to an end i mean yeah i mean that's a greater fool theory that's what you're saying well yeah it's it's it's buying something because you expect the pool of people who want to buy it because they want to sell it to somebody else will grow and create a rising price does create more buyers and people think i've got to get in on this and and it's better if they don't understand it that's the other thing about non-product if you don't understand it you get much more excited than if you understand it i mean if you buy a bonuses you can pay you four percent a year you're not getting any pleasant surprises she's going to pay you four percent of here but if you if you you can have anything you want to imagine if you just look at something say that's magic you can do it with sharks teeth or sea shells or or anything and you know they did it with tulips and and in the 17th century in in in amsterdam and and they'll do it again i mean people they like to speculate they like to gamble and uh if you can get something maybe you have something half plausible going on but warren buffett is not alone the world's largest hedge fund manager billionaire ray dalio also has three major concerns about bitcoin go for it ray digital currencies let me break them out down into two types um there's the type in which it's like a bitcoin type of currency that'll be an alternative currency um in terms of its supply demand and an alternative storehold of wealth and then there's digital currencies that means there'll be other types of currencies let's say the dollar or the euro or the chinese remnb that is digitalized okay i think we're going to see a lot more of that second type but i think that there are three main problems of the first type the bitcoin type of of that um uh a currency has to be an effective medium of exchange store hold of wealth and the governments want to control it i today can't take my bit bitcoin yet and go buy things easily with it and as a storehold of wealth um it it it's so volatile um that its volatility based on speculation is so much greater that it's not an effective storehold of wealth and which is also one of the reasons it's a problem to be a transaction vehicle because if a vendor says i'm going to get paid in bitcoin and they don't know what that means in terms of their other liabilities that's a problem and then thirdly um you know governments won't and when if it becomes material governments won't allow it i mean they'll outlaw it and they'll use whatever teeth they have to enforce that they would say okay you can't have you can't transact a bitcoin you can't have a bitcoin so then you have to sort of be almost like um is it a felony and i'm gonna have to be a felon in order to transact they outlawed gold um you know um what's what's wrong with gold but gold was a storehold of wealth uh no i wouldn't prefer bitcoin to gold gold that central banks and countries jews as an alternative to the regular cash um because each central bank can print cash but through transaction through time when countries dealt with each other they used gold because they didn't have to worry about being devalued by some country that's going to print the gold and so it still is our third largest reserves if you take central bank reserves the largest is the dollar the second largest is uh euros and the third largest is gold so if you guys have found some value in this video so far please give it a big thumbs up that helps out tremendously with the channel so we've got a lot to think about there and here are my final thoughts so overall i think blockchain is a fantastic technology and has lots of potential applications in the future but bitcoin bitcoin is not really an investment it's a speculation because if you buy bitcoin today you're betting on somebody else willing to pay more for that bitcoin in the future the bitcoin doesn't really have in itself intrinsic value now there's nothing wrong with investing into something speculative but the key is to understand and be aware of that if you're investing into something you say okay this is a speculative bet it may go 10x bitcoin may go to 100 000 just be aware that it's speculative now the real issue i do see is from a long-term perspective governments will always want to control their currency that's just a fact of life that we will have to deal with because if they don't control the currency then they cannot collect taxes and the government loses their power i think if governments or major banks do start to adopt some sort of bitcoin-like currency then they will either buy all the bitcoin in circulation thus owning the currency again or they will just create their own version of this crypto currency but i know a lot of you guys are bitcoin balls so i do have an interesting angle which you might want to check out so another way of investing into bitcoin or cryptocurrency indirectly would be to invest into a reputable company such as nvidia so nvidia is the market leader in graphics cards they also have a great business with data centers now with all this bitcoin mining going on how is all that bitcoin going to be mined but with graphics cards and processing power of course now during the last bitcoin boom in 2018 shares of nvidia actually increased massively in price and the company's earnings also increased during that time as more people were purchasing these graphics cards to mine bitcoin and i wish you guys luck whatever you choose to do but please do comment your thoughts below i'd love to know your thoughts on bitcoin are you bullish on bitcoin are you bearish on bitcoin do you think it will keep on booming do you think it will crash in the future do you think it has real value i'd love to hear your thoughts so please do comment below why not join the community by hitting that subscribe button and turning that notification bell on with that being said i hope you guys have a tremendous day and i'll see you in my next video invest safe you
Comments 0