저자: DefyingFinance채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 연방 정부의 고금리 부채 부담으로 연준이 결국 금리를 인하하고 국채를 매입하며, 단기적으로는 주식 폭락 후 국채 매수 열풍과 이후 인플레이션·초인플레이션 위험이 온다는 주장이다. 거시 배경: 미국 정부는 단기 부채를 고금리(4~5%)로 차환하고 있어 이자 부담이 감당하기 어렵다고 주장한다. 중국과 러시아의 국채 수요 감소도 언급된다. 시나리오 전개: 은행 일부가 부실화되며 시장 공포가 커지고 주식이 급락한다고 예상한다. 연준이 국채를 매입하면 국채 가격이 급등하고, 연금·헤지펀드·은행이 차익 실현 후 저가 주식을 사들일 것이라고 본다. 연준과 화폐 구조: 연준은 자본 손실을 흡수할 수 있고 달러를 찍어내는 주체이며, 정부 대신 부채를 떠안는 구조라고 설명한다. 이로 인해 직접적 인플레이션이 발생한다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 자산시장 거품으로 갈지 일반 물가로 갈지는 불확실하며, 극단적 경우 연 20% 수준의 초인플레이션 가능성을 언급한다. 금·국채 포지션: 금 채굴주(레버리지), 실물 금, 스프롯 금 신탁을 보유하며, 국채 ETF TLT도 보유 중이다. 단기적으로 국채 큰 수익을 예상한다. 기타 포지션·리스크: 뉴욕커뮤니티뱅크 공매도를 12월까지 유지할 계획이다. 중국 주식은 규제 리스크로 매도 고려 중이며, 달러 약세 시 현지 통화 자산이 유리하다고 본다. 부채한도 상향은 정치권과 무관하게 이뤄질 것이라고 전망한다. 전체 평가: 연준 개입과 국채 랠리, 이후 인플레이션이라는 흐름을 예측하며, 정부 부채 압박에 따른 정책 전환을 핵심 논리로 삼는다.
다듬은 글
so here's my theory on what I think is going to happen over the next year now I don't know if there's some sort of conspiracy behind all the stuff that's not what I'm saying but I think Peter Schiff if you guys know who he is or not now full disclosure I do use them as a broker for my gold fun I like I like his gold fun with Adrian day so I'll put a portion of my portfolio with him they manage that part and then I I play in my own world with stocks in my own account but I do use them for some of it it gives me some sort of access and communication there but I think he's going to be wrong initially so here's my idea right now the government cannot afford to keep refinancing its debt at these high interest rates see most people don't understand what is happening right now all of these U.S treasuries all of these new bonds that are let's say four percent five percent the government has to pay that interest back now the government has refinanced their debt because most of it's short term now so they've refinanced this debt at a huge amount they can't afford the interest on the debt if this continues that's why I think the FED is going to have to drop interest rates just not yet now again I don't know that this is nefarious or something where they're you know trying to destroy the banking system but I think it's going to play out like this they're going to allow a bunch of these Banks to have issues and begin to fail right they need a reason to come into the market the government can't come out and say oh well you know this interest is turning out to be a lot for us so uh do you mind kicking us down some money fed right the FED doesn't print money and just give it to the government the government has to issue bonds into the market a dealer they're called primary dealers they come in they buy these treasuries and they can sell them to the Fed so that could happen too but I think what's going to happen is you're going to have this massive panic in the stock market it's going to be crazy and there is only two tier one assets that big hedge funds that all of your your pension plans are in legally they can only buy gold or U.S treasuries so they are going to flood into the U.S treasury market just when the government is looking to sell a bunch of treasuries so they're going to be selling these things into the market all these buyers are going to come in at these you know High rates that they're at now and yes the government can't afford that in in the longer run but here's here's what I think is going to happen all these people come in they start buying all these treasures at pretty good deals it's going to start to push you know the the interest rate down maybe a little bit but that that doesn't even matter yet right because let's say they get these at five percent four percent everybody starts to panic they're really rolling into these eventually I think it's going to turn because they're going to come in to save the market right the stock market at that point all these companies you know the media is going to be pushing oh no what are we going to do all these people are losing their jobs the recession's here what do we do the fed's gonna come in they're gonna buy those treasuries from you they're going to buy them from all these companies all these Pension funds that are running your 401ks um or your your 401ks and the Pension funds they're going to come buy these from you and you would be stupid not to sell a treasury at five percent interest because as rates go down right the fed's going to force the rates down which is going to force the value of your treasuries through the roof and you'd be crazy not to take that profit so the banks are going to take that profit Pension funds are going to take that profit they're going to take the profit and they're going to come buy stocks at distressed prices the FED is then taking all of that high interest rate U.S treasury debt right they're putting it on their balance sheet so they're going to take the loss they can make it disappear if they want right they could they can the government can default with the Federal Reserve if they want and say oh well you know we can't we can't make that payment right or can you just print the money the FED is the one who prints the money for the United States government the United States government doesn't actually print their money the FED prints the money for our government it's a private company if you didn't know that but I think that that's how it plays out there will be some places that make incredible profits on these treasuries because the FED doesn't have a real balance sheet like you do and like your company has to they don't have a real income statement the Federal Reserve Bank cannot lose money currency whatever you want to call it value they can't they own the printing press your government does not own the printing press picture like this your government says hey can you print us some money and the FED says yeah we could go ahead and do that so then the treasury at the US says okay here's x amount of money and the FED has to give that to them that's why the dollar bills say Federal Reserve Note it is a debt instrument you owe that back to the people who made that that's how the Federal Reserve operates so they create all this money so this is inflation when they when the Federal Reserve buys all these treasuries from the whole world because China's not buying barely Russia's not buying anymore so who's going to lend the government money you're going to have to and you're going to do it through a panic through a crisis because that's all these Pension funds can buy they're not going to run to Gold most likely now I think Peter Schiff will be right in the long run and I don't know that that long run might be coming very very quick because when the FED buys all these treasuries that is direct inflation into the economy because now your pension companies um your 401ks maybe you want to borrow against it right or just hedge funds that made these big profits or banks that made these big profits off these treasuries now we have to find out where does that inflation end up does it end up back in the asset Market where you have you know another big bubble go rip it up over the next 10 years does it get in the hands of more individuals where you see that inflation in your basic prices and that's that's kind of where Peter Schiff goes with this I think that will happen again to some level but I think we it's possible you end up in a hyperinflation now I don't know to what level that is it may not be Zimbabwe hyperinflation but what if what if I mean a hyperinflation to me if you lost a hundred percent or let's say let's say 20 a year in inflation that's not the the actual definition of a hyperinflation but in five years or less at the value of your money was basically gone I'm pretty sure everybody would consider that pretty dang quick to lose their purchasing power so I think that's how this plays out the FED comes to the rescue buying all these treasuries that are that end up as really high values because the interest rate is high relative to the recent history at least and there's going to be people who make a lot of money so I'm set up through the gold fund as as a backup plan I like the leverage that mining stocks give but I also have physical gold I also use sprott's trust fund for physical gold-backed paper is the way I look at it it's like a thing of it like a stock that's backed by physical gold so I think that's a good play too but I also own TLT I want to hold Treasures because they got beat so bad I think there is a huge profit coming in almost like Harry did like Harry Dent's been playing you know that side of the cards he's he's been wrong for a little while but I think he's going to end up being right in the very short run it's going to happen really fast and that's why I'm positioned that way I still have my short position on New York Community Bank so I'm going to hold that I gotta hold that all the way out through December so I might as well but I think ultimately that's going to be the play not that you can't own other stocks um we own some stocks in China we might have to sell those because I'm getting worried the government is going to you know not allow us to buy Chinese stocks or something and I don't want to get caught up in that although I think that whole area is going to be better in the long run because you don't have the United States currency so it's kind of a double play right as the US dollar I think Falls in value relative to the other currencies you make money there even if the stock doesn't move then the stock moves on top of that and it's priced in that currency you make an additional like say if it's say the dollar dropped 10 percent against that currency and the stock went up 10 I mean you're effectively a 20 gain even though the stock only moved 10 right so that's one of the strategies But ultimately I think that's what's going to happen you're going to be forced into buying Treasures because it's gonna it's gonna be a good deal and then when the FED comes in and says yeah I'll buy everything from you and it doubles the value of your bond you're gonna sell it why would you hold it who cares if you're making five percent why would you hold it when you make 100 just the value of that treasury of course you're going to sell it so I think the banks will do the same thing um I would can I would continue if I were you I would be using your money to buy those types of things TLT is probably the most well known but then as rates get pushed way down when they come in to buy all these up all these old treasuries these older bonds they're going to be revalued back to about where they were like say something a treasury that was at two percent a couple years ago is now going to be basically full value again because interest rates will get pushed down so much so the government is going to finally be able to start selling these treasuries again at these super low interest rates and they're refinancing that debt just like you would refinance your house today it's almost like a seven percent right so if you just bought a house you would you're crying for interest rates to come down to two percent right to if you could refinance your house at two percent right now you totally would do that your payment would collapse that's effectively what the government's going to end up trying to do again now we don't know how far they have to go to make this work how much inflation do they have to bring into the system to make this work I think this is all coming to a head it's perfect timing you got the debt ceiling that has to be raised you know they're going to raise the debt selling the government never does not raise the debt ceiling of course they're going to Republicans Democrats it doesn't matter they're going to raise the debt ceiling so this is going to get really interesting I hope that was helpful that's kind of my thesis on how I think it's going to play out
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