저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 과도한 통화팽창과 부채로 서구 경제가 겉보기보다 취약하며 금·은 같은 실물자산이 체제 불안에 대한 헤지라고 주장. 일반인의 금·은 보유는 구매력 하락 때문이며, 위기 시 금을 먼저 파는 경향과 중동 소버린펀드 매도 압력이 단기 가격 하락 요인이라고 언급. 기관 금 보유 비중이 극히 낮아 장기 수요 여력은 있다고 봄. 금보다 석유 관련주가 저평가되어 매력적이라 언급하며, 광산주는 먼저 하락할 가능성을 제시. 엔비디아·테슬라 등 대형 성장주보다 채권이 손실이 적다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Your viewers should be sleeping well if they own some gold and silver. Most people around the world they know what a coin is of gold and silver. That everybody knows. And so when the prices of gold and silver go up, they restore some money in gold and silver. But also they store it there because they've seen how the purchasing power of money has diminished.
Uh you understand? 20 years ago a soup on the street or some street food would cost say 20 cents and now it costs a dollar. So they know that gold keeps its value. Have you observed how in the current financial environment markets appear to be stable on the surface while more serious threats are still developing beneath the surface?
Many investors can continue to have significant exposure to paper assets and stocks frequently ignoring the long-term effects of excessive money printing and growing debt. Marc Faber brings up a crucial issue. He contends that because central banks are still raising asset values and devaluing currencies, the world economy is significantly more precarious than it seems.
As a result, conventional investment techniques might no longer provide the same level of safety. He highlights the value of having tangible assets such as gold as a kind of financial protection against systemic instability as well as a hedge. He believes that complacency poses greater risk than volatility.
Many investors believe the system will continue to run smoothly, but history demonstrates that times of high debt and monetary expansion frequently result in significant corrections. In such a setting, Faber advocates for a more prudent and diversified strategy that prioritizes wealth preservation over merely pursuing profits.
If you want more content on . Yes, this is a very good question. And I can give you an answer. Say in a poor country people have as assets the main asset is a house. Because when they get some money they know something about the house price because the neighbor has sold his house or you understand? It's something that is near to their daily lives.
They have in poorer countries where it's Indonesia or Bangladesh, India, or here. They have no clue what a stock is. They don't know. They don't know what bonds are. So they buy properties. And what they also buy is when they get into some monetary conditions that are favorable they buy a motorcycle.
Because then they can go to work further away and they become mobile. They can go into the city and earn a higher salary which they couldn't do before. And then they buy if they do well and they become they become more affluent they buy a car. And then they buy life insurance for the children and so on.
But stocks is very more moved. But most people around the world they know what a coin is of gold and silver. That everybody knows. And so when the prices of gold and silver go up, they restore some money in gold and silver. But also they store it there because they've seen how the purchasing power of money has diminished.
Uh you understand? 20 years ago a soup on the street or some street food would cost say 20 cents and now it costs a dollar. So they know that gold keeps its value. But when there is a crisis, an economic crisis what do they sell? They have children, they have wives they have obligations. They don't want to sell the house because then they have to move into more unfavorable social conditions and that is embarrassing for the children and the wives.
And they don't want to sell the car which is a mortgage and they have installment credit. Because they need the car to go to work. And so when they have a liquidity issue for themselves in the household, it can also be someone is sick and or the [clears throat] or someone needs urgently money. The one thing they can always sell and nobody sees it is the golds they own.
And so when prices go up and they are relatively high in the current crisis they are selling it. And then there are central banks. You understand? In the Middle East. The Middle Eastern countries had big surpluses. And they have these large sovereign funds. And the sovereign funds, they are there to basically it's like a pension fund of the population of Saudi Arabia or of the population of the United Arab Emirates and so forth.
But now the cash flow of these countries is down because although the price of oil is up they are selling less. And uh so there is some selling pressure among gold holders. But I want to reassure your viewers since you told me that they are interested in precious metals. If you look at the ownership of gold and silver and platinum around the world, especially among financial institutions it's tiny.
Tiny. In other words, say if you look at portfolio managers in the US most of them in their portfolios have next to zero exposure to gold. They also have very little exposure to oil. Say in 1980 at the last peak of the oil boom of the '70s when oil had gone from the essentially a dollar in 1970 to close to $50 on the spot market.
At the at the time oil and oil-related stocks made up for 35% of the S&P 500. We are now down to around 5%. So I think oil stocks are reasonably good value. I mean if you ask me, Marc, you must buy stocks today which I don't really want to do. But if I have to buy stocks, I would buy some oil stocks.
But I think I would also buy some mining companies. Although I think that the mining stocks are not acting well, that they will go down first. But as I said, I personally I sleep very well with my gold holdings. And the bonds I have as a cash flow instrument that I consider reasonably safe. I mean I think I lose less on my bond positions which are different maturities.
Every year some bonds mature. But I think I lose less money on bonds than on Nvidia and Tesla and the Fang seven stocks and the magnificent seven stocks and all these popular investments. Yeah, going back to viewers should be sleeping well if they own some gold and silver. Gold and silver are more than simply investments all over the world.
They are an integral element of daily life and a dependable method of storing value. People frequently save in precious metals as their income increases. Additionally, those same metals can be swiftly sold for money during hard times. He says that particularly in developing nations, this tendency produces natural cycles of purchasing and selling.
However, there is still a lot of space for future demand growth because big institutions currently keep very little gold and silver. Gold has continuously maintained its worth over time despite the fact that prices can decline during brief crises. Would you rely on gold during a financial emergency?
With most global portfolios still under exposed and ongoing pressure from inflation and money printing, holding physical metals remains a strong option for financial stability. . What what is your US economic outlook? I mean my outlook for the Western societies and I'm not singling out the US because some countries are even worse.
They have lived on borrowing money. If you look at the economic growth, GDP and is a questionable question is a questionable to look at uh the figure of GDP. I think a better measurement of people's prosperity is their or would be their standards of living. Now the is not quite easy to measure the standards of living because it varies a lot.
But in general, one has to be very careful by using GDP, which just adds the production of apples and oranges and cars and insurance premiums and so forth. You understand? There's so many different things that go into GDP. It doesn't tell you very much whether you are richer than your grandmother was or poorer.
I can say that my grandparents lived a relatively high life standard. I'm not saying I live a better standard or a worse standard. But my grandmother that she just cooked for my grandfather and my grandfather, he was an engineer. And they had a permanent they had actually two permanent servants. One lived with them and one came for the day and so forth.
And very few families have permanent servants nowadays. I happen to have three. But I have a large property and so forth. So they need to look after the house and they need to cook and they need to look after the motorcycles and so forth. So and they are not terribly expensive and is a huge convenience for me.
But uh I I'm concerned that the lifestyle my colleagues had who finished school at about the same time I finished school in 1964 and university in '69 with a PhD and uh my impression is that at the time with my salary I could live a relatively good life. And at that uh you could buy assets at at a low price relative to today.
You understand? In when I grew when I started to work in 1970 the stock market capitalization as a percent of the economy in America was 25%. So in other words, the economy was this big and the stock market was this big. Now, the stock market is everywhere and the economy is a bit larger. So the economy has become very dependent on stocks going up or going if they go down, they hurt consumption and so forth.
And Trump and his fellow billionaires they don't want stocks to go down. They they want to keep them up. And whenever Trump does something where the stock market goes down, you can be sure that he gets a telephone call from the buddies that give him money for the elections. And they tell him, "You idiot, can't you do something to make stocks go up?"
And so as in every society throughout history they're going to print money. And when there is money printing for sure in the long run [clears throat] your viewers and I and you and everybody is well advised to have the ownership of some gold. But there's a question mark about where you should hold your gold and so forth.
I would prefer to hold gold in a place and you don't tell anyone about it. Or as an American I would be concerned that the government will take my gold away one of these days. Is the same in Switzerland? The government This is my only fear that the government if they could lock in you and your family during COVID they can also take things away from you.
According to Marc Faber, people in many developing nations don't consider investing in the same way as those in established economies. Their primary asset is typically something concrete like a house rather than stocks or bonds because it is recognizable and simple to comprehend. They perceive it as trustworthy because they see actual examples in their immediate environment such as neighbors purchasing or selling real estate.
When their financial circumstances improve, they may purchase useful items like a motorcycle to travel farther for higher paying employment, ultimately a car and finally family insurance. He notes that people frequently purchase gold and silver when they have extra money, particularly after witnessing the gradual decline in the value of cash.
For instance, they discover that gold typically retains its value better than paper money when something that was inexpensive a few years ago becomes considerably more expensive today. Additionally, Faber notes that there are other sources of selling pressure. When their income declines, some nations, particularly those that depend on oil revenue, may also sell gold.
Prices may momentarily drop as a result. However, he highlights an important issue in spite of the short-term selling, ownership of gold and other precious metals is still incredibly low worldwide, particularly among major financial organizations. The majority of professional investors seldom own any gold at all, indicating substantial potential for future demand growth. .
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