저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 디몬은 우크라이나 전쟁과 미중 관계를 가장 큰 리스크로 보며, 미국 경기는 연착륙 가능성이 있으나 인플레이션 재발과 추가 긴축 가능성을 경계한다. 지정학 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁은 2차 대전 이후 가장 심각한 지정학 문제로, 에너지·식량 공급과 무역 관계에 영향을 준다. 전쟁이 10년까지 갈 수 있다는 보고서를 인용했다. 미중 관계: 반도체, 희토류, 페니실린 등 국가안보 품목과 불공정 무역이 쟁점이며, 기업보다 정부가 규칙을 정해야 한다고 봤다. 중국 사업은 미국 정부 요구를 따른다. 미 연준·경기: 연착륙 가능성은 있으나 경기 침체(경미한 침체 가능성 존재)가 올 수 있다. 인플레이션은 4분기 이후에야 충분히 내려갈 것이며 연준이 더 긴축할 수 있다. 인프라 투자, IRA, 교역 재편, 그린전환 등 구조적 요인은 인플레 요인이다. 소비자: 고용과 임금 상승, 예금 잔고가 양호해 2008년보다 훨씬 나은 상태이나, 초과 저축은 연말쯤 소진될 것이라고 봤다. 기술·기타: AI는 실재하는 기술로 JP모건은 300여 개 AI를 이미 사용 중이며 리스크·사기 방지에 활용한다. 직접대출(사모대출) 규모는 약 100억 달러 수준이고 확대 여지가 있다. 플로리다·텍사스 등 친기업 주에 대한 긍정적 평가를 했다. 투자 관련 종목 언급 없음. 리스크 요인은 전쟁 확대, 미중 충돌, 인플레이션 재가속, 연준의 추가 긴축, 소비 둔화다.
다듬은 글
What are you worried about? It's great, by the way, it's great to be here. So thank you. Uh, what worries me the most, if you go, is Ukraine. This is oil, gas, that is, world leadership, and you know our relationship with China. I mean, this is much more serious than the economic fluctuations we all have to deal with every day.
Regarding the Ukrainian issue, listen, we talked a lot about it, obviously, a year ago, very soon after the war started. Do you think that now, a year later, the West has somehow gotten used to the idea of a conflict of this magnitude on its borders? And if so, does that worry you? Yes. No, it seems like people are a little new to this , but I think that's a bit of a mistake.
I recently read a report that when a war lasts one year , it usually lasts 10, but this is a major land war in Europe, and in a free and democratic country , you know, with hundreds of thousands of casualties on both sides. And so I think we don't know how this will end. We don't know in which direction this will develop, and it affects global relations.
So, Ukraine, Russia, then oil, gas, food, how it hurts poor countries, and it destroys trade relations between America, China, and the rest of the world. So this is probably the most serious geopolitical problem we have had to deal with since World War II. Do you foresee a future where JP Morgan could potentially re- enter the Russian market as a business?
I mean, it's too early to tell, you know? I think if it were to happen, one day, maybe, but it's entirely possible that it won't happen in our lifetime. And you mentioned that US-China relations are clearly not in the best shape right now, especially regarding the balloon pop-up. I wonder what role you think business plays in trying to soften these relationships and try to keep them as good as possible.
Yes. Well, you know, it's actually the government. The government needs to set the rules and understand what it wants to do. And I think it's a fair complaint against government and business that we probably should have started rebooting this 10 years ago. And we didn't do it . I don't like your spilt milk chorus and all that.
But in the future , I think the government is thinking carefully about what national security is. So think about semiconductors, rare earth elements, penicillin, you know, some drugs. What is unfair trade? And then, you know, at some point you're going to sit down and have a very serious conversation with the Chinese government.
Remember, Secretary Blinken was going there to do it, and then the balloon, but at some point they're going to do it, and business is going to be a secondary player in that. So I think business will help, give advice on how to do things, if you have external investment that controls how you set up the way you work.
It's not just a huge bureaucracy . And so all the conversations so far have been quite rational. I mean, JP Morgan obviously has a significant business in China. I'm sure the government there will listen to you . What conversations are you having , trying, as I said, to maintain the most sincere relations between the two countries?
I mean, you know , for us, we're there, and as I said, we're essentially second-guessing the American government on this issue. Uh, and we obviously have to do whatever the American government asks us to do, and we're trying to start a conversation with our own government and with the Chinese government about what these things should be.
You know, I hope the cooling prevails here, but that's why Ukraine is so important. This can lead to the situation going in a bad direction quite quickly. So, uh, you know, everyone has to be a little careful. You are talking about our own government. Let's talk a little about the Fed. Of course, I just want to talk a little bit about the Fed.
I have half a dozen interesting questions I could ask you about the Fed . I think I know the answer to a lot of them, so I'll try to avoid them. One fairly simple option is when can we say we're landing? Is it a hard or soft landing? When does this start happening? You know, predicting the future, as you know, is very difficult.
If a consumer still has much more money in their checking accounts than they did before the pandemic, they are spending 10% more than last year, 40% more than before COVID. And it looks like they will have surplus money for spending until about the end of the year. And at this point, you know, you might ask, is this a bit of a cliffhanger?
Is this a soft landing? And also, the quantum period has now started to bite. That's also going to happen at some point, probably later this year, and you know, that's when you'll find out what these things do, but... we could still have a soft landing. And one more thing in all this economic forecasting is Russia Ukraine; I mean, it could change things dramatically very, very quickly.
Do you think we will have a soft landing without Russia? I think it's still possible, but I would consider it a possibility or a possible. I think a mild recession is possible, and a more serious recession is possible. I think there is a good chance that inflation will come down, but not enough until the fourth quarter.
The Fed may have to do more. And I think a lot of the things that have happened in the world, think about the larger trends, are inflationary. You know, infrastructure spending, the IRA law, uh, reducing trade with certain parts of the world, bringing trade back to America. All of this means that the green transition will require a lot of capital.
So all of these things have inflationary characteristics that are very different from what we've had over the last 20 years. I'll come back to the consumer question in a second. But last year, in your letter, you spoke about a kind of coincidence of three main factors. It's that America is recovering quite strongly from the post-colonial economy, and then obviously the war as well.
You talked about how they seem to be leading us into an unprecedented period. How do we get out of this period? I, you know, this is diplomacy . I mean, that's why it's not something we always talk about uncertainty in the economy and uncertainty. The weather, you know, we know what the weather is like.
That's why these things are different. QT, uh, based on COVID, the war in Ukraine. I think it was pushed a little further. I would have thought we would start doing this a little earlier. But it looks like some of these things are coming to fruition by the end of this year. We simply don't know Russia or Ukraine.
I think it's wrong to see them and predict them, because if you look at the history of wars, they've been pretty unpredictable, and how they, uh, unfolded, and which ones affect the global economy and how they do that. Take many wars, they didn't affect the global economy, but they literally affected very small parts of the economy.
This is not a small part of the economy, and it is a European country. Uh , it's Russia and its oil, and, you know, the main suppliers of oil, gas, and food around the world. So that's a completely different, uh, characteristic. But then why does the consumer, especially here in the US, remain, as you say, quite optimistic, throughout the entire period of rising home prices?
There are many jobs. Salaries are rising at the bottom, which I think is a good thing. They have a lot of money in their checking accounts. You know, stocks have generally been going up for 10 or 15 years. The consumer, if you look at it today, is in great shape. But I'm telling you, it will end someday.
But even if we enter a recession, the consumer will enter the recession in a better state, much better than in 2008 . You know, in 2008, when we entered this recession, not only did unemployment skyrocket, but their housing prices plummeted, jobs were disappearing, uh, the stock market went down a lot.
So this case is a little better. One of the fairly popular narratives right now is that the consumer doesn't like uncertainty. I would even say that this is one of those false axioms that, you know, people accept now that when uncertain times come, the consumer panics. He stops spending. He stops doing what the consumer needs to do to keep the economy running.
It seems that this is not the case. The consumer was quite good at dealing with uncertainty, because of conflict, because of war, because of everything else. So I wonder what, when we get to that point where the wallet is hurting and consumers are saying we're going to stop spending, is it just reality catching up with them ?
Is there some kind of tipping point, or are they just running out of money? I distort everything, including the uncertainty of the quote. So you're absolutely right, you know consumer confidence is falling, but I think their wallet outweighs confidence. When they have a lot of money, they tend to spend it.
And as you see here, for example, look at the travel in Miami, the construction and the optimism around, if you ask them how they're doing, they say things are very good. And then they tell you they're worried about the economy. There are many jobs, salaries are rising. I mean, that's what really affects them, you know, they wake up in the morning, they feel pretty good, and then they read the newspaper, and of course you can get a little depressed.
And your point is that at the end of this year or near the end of this year it's kind of going to start to taper off , it's like the excess cash is going to go away, and then, uh, but the jobs are still there. So you can, that's why I said you can have a soft landing. So now Jeffrey Epstein, uh, obviously , his ghost continues to haunt the world's elite, and most recently JP Morgan, uh, was kind of caught up in this.
What feelings did this evoke in you ? You know, I can't speak to the litigation, but you should know that at JP Moore we have leading experts, including some of the best people from the Department of Justice and so on, who review and make these kinds of decisions, and we, we, they generally do a very good job of their job.
But how did you feel as the CEO of JP Morgan, as a representative of the bank? It's a shame, but such is life. Um, and listen, we're here in Florida. We have to talk about politics because we always talk about politics. Obviously, we are in the Santis' backyard. What do you think of his, uh, hands- on approach to business, and would you like to see more of that in an even higher position?
Who is responsible for this approach? Dentist. Yes. Listen, I, you know, I...I study, I listen, I read, etc. You know, it's a little complicated between business and government , and all that stuff , but, you know, everyone here knows that I'm a fervent, ardent American patriot, a supporter of free enterprise.
So, you know, I hear complaints from both sides, but, you know, you listen and you learn from it. I'm not really worried about this. And we love Florida. We are growing in Florida both left and right. You know, small businesses, big companies. We know how many employees we have here. I'm going to Tampa.
We have, you know, big operations there. Orlando, major operations. Uh, we're opening branches. And so, uh, the mayor just joined us at a small business event that we were having here . We are very supportive of Florida. And this is old Florida. This is not part of the recent influx of capital into Florida or the financial world into Florida, perhaps.
Well, I think they were great. I mean, you know, if you're running a state, you have to think, how can I make this state prosper well for my people? So, Florida loves business. They want you to come. You know, you come to Florida, you see the choices. It's the same in Texas . You know, if I were some of the other states, I mean, why do people like to go to those states?
These are their taxes. They support business. They want a better life for their people . This is not necessarily related to the policy we are talking about. So, um, you know, we have more workers in Texas now than in New York State. You know, it's supposed to be that way, but Texas loves being there.
And when you go there, they are optimistic. They are optimistic here. Pro-American, optimistic, about business. No, unfortunately. No. Um, every year there's some kind of technology topic that we talk about. Last year it was the metaverse, and I think we spoke briefly about how you appeared in non-physical form in the lobby of the metaverse.
This year it's, um, artificial intelligence. I asked Chat GPT what I should ask Jamie Diamond. I was hoping he would give a really intelligent answer. I won't need to write any of my questions. I could ask him to do the whole interview for me. Well, unfortunately, that didn't happen. He asked what I would ask Jamie Diamond, um, about AI and what it means for the future of investment banking.
So, AI is real. This is not a cryptocurrency. This is not a cryptocurrency. This is technology that is impressive. We already use 300 AIs. We have thousands of people involved. Thousands are involved in data, machine learning, natural language processing. We have 200 people in AI research labs. But we're already using it to combat risk, fraud, marketing, prospecting , and that's just the tip of the iceberg.
So, you know, for me, this is extraordinary. And another thing to remember is that this is a good application, but bad guys will also use it. So it's kind of an arms race and how you should use this to protect your company, protect your customers, protect your data, and so on. And we are fully involved.
And another thing you have to remember about AI is that you need to be in the cloud to use the computing power that you need for AI. And so cloud digital AI, they're all connected in some way. What was behind the decision to ban GPT chat on trading platforms ? This is on company-owned devices. So you could do it on your own device, but we also allow people to use it within our own firewalls.
So we did n't take him. You just need to go through our firewall to use it , and this was done for risk control and monitoring purposes only. There was no statement about any time. Before we finish , I want to move on to fundraising. Obviously, that's why we're here, to talk about the conference. One of the really interesting things that JP Morgan is doing right now is lending from its own balance sheet, direct lending, if you will.
At the moment, I think $10 billion has been allocated. How big can this business become? Yes. So, you know, it's amazing, and when you look at something like that, for your audience, American capitalism, there are 2,000 investors here from all over the world. Hundreds of companies are still inventing ideas, growing, and expanding both in the U.S.
and abroad. This is extraordinary. So direct lending, you know, is obviously one of the biggest lenders, but a lot of people here are also huge lenders. So, you know, I meet with all of them, and you know , direct lending outside of banks has become the same size. They like to think of themselves as competitors, and they are, you know, that's a lot, but we deal with competitors and partners all the time.
So we do direct lending, and all of that is fundamentally for your viewers, you know, a unit faster, more flexibility in certain types of covenants, not necessarily cheaper for the borrower, by the way. So, you need to consider everything. We have concluded, it seems, 10 billion 40 deals. We can do a lot more, and you know we can work with partners on some of these deals and so on, but we will do whatever it takes to compete.
It's a bit strange to ask you about succession. You are constantly asked about this . I'm not going to do that. But, but I'm curious. You talk a lot about the need for unified responses to global conflict. You talk a lot about things that are needed domestically, whether it's better healthcare, better education, increasing wage inequality or, I should say, decreasing wage inequality.
It seems pretty obvious that you could go into public office if you decided, uh, when you left JP Morgan. Can we expect this? I'm not going to go into civil service. I like what I do here. You know, you mentioned succession, but you might like this. I-I-I think you should practice a little before you take on this.
And I mean, what I do here is a huge contribution to my country, my clients around the world, and so on. So, uh, and one more thing about succession...you guys already know who we have a lot of potential successors, so you write about it a lot. That's right. So, you know, I couldn't answer that.
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