저자: TerrySmith—영상진행자및해설자발언기준 · 외국인
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Terry Smith 연례 컨퍼런스 요약 영상. 2023년 최고 수익 종목으로 Meta·Microsoft·Novo Nordisk 등이 꼽혔고, 우량주를 장기 보유해야 한다는 원칙을 강조. 'Magnificent Seven'에 집중하지 않고 분산투자한 것이 시장 대비 부진의 배경이며, 과거 Meta의 급락 사례도 제시. 에너지·은행 섹터의 최근 2년 강세는 이례적이라고 설명. Amazon 매도 실수를 인정하고, 트럼프 당선이 증시에 큰 영향을 주지 않는다는 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone and welcome back, Carry Smith has often been considered the English Word and Buffett and his investment fund from 2010 until today has beaten the reference market, that is, the MS World stock index, the same index replicated by the famous SVDA ETF which occupies about 50% of my portfolio.
I have often mentioned Terry Smith in some of my videos and even in a specific episode I explained how my strategy for choosing stocks is very inspired by his. In the past few weeks there was Terry Smith's annual conference for all the investors of his fund and as always there were many lessons to take home.
I have selected five extracts that I think are the most interesting. But in the video description and in the first comment highlighted below I leave you the link for those interested in following the entire conference of about an hour and 20 minutes. Well, let's start, let's start right away with the first point: the best stocks.
In the presentation, Terry Smith always shows which were the five stocks that drove his portfolio in the year just ended, in this case in 2023 the five best were meta Microsoft Noo Terry Smith jokingly said he wanted to open a new fund that invests in only one company each year and it would be the one that received the most criticism the previous year as was Meta.
In fact, he underlined how throughout 2022 his fund was harshly criticized for having bought Meta shares and we all know that in 2023 it had exceptional returns in the same way he says he received a lot of criticism when he bought Microsoft many years ago at a price of 25-26 per share now the price is over 00 the most important thing Terry Smith underlined is that This is the eighth time Microsoft appears in the list of companies with the best returns.
A similar speech also for Novo Nordisk which appears in the list for the fourth time in 7 years L'Oreal appears for the second time while Idex Laboratories appears for the sixth time so These are companies that year after year continue to confirm themselves and allow the portfolio to generate excellent returns and here Terry Smith also refers to the famous quote by Peter Lynch saying that in a garden you have to water the flowers and pull the weeds.
Not the opposite means that when we realize we have bought an exceptional company It is important to keep it in the portfolio for a long time the companies to sell are those of low quality and in which we no longer have confidence Many people instead sell their best companies because they have had excellent returns But by doing so they miss out on future returns and continue to hold mediocre or poor companies in the portfolio hoping that they will return to positive territory and then sell them For example if we have an excellent company in the portfolio and we sell it only because the share price has doubled this will prevent us from finding those companies that will do for 10 or for 100 when instead it is precisely these that can turn our portfolio around Second point beat the market subsequently Terry Smith analyses the criticism received for not being able to beat the market in 2023 and here he refers to the magnificent seven the famous seven companies that have dragged the market like Nvidia and Meta which have had amazing returns The concept to learn in this case is that in 2023 the only way to beat the market was to have many of these companies in the portfolio or to have some of them but with a very high percentage high in its fund Although the two main positions today are Microsoft and Meta their percentages were much lower at the beginning of 2023 This image represents the companies that in the 2000s during the bubble.com were called the Super Sets as We see in the following 5 and 10 years they had very negative returns So when the media invent high-sounding names for a small group of companies we must always be very careful Terry Smith also gives us the example of this particular company in February 2018 its shares had a price of $ 17 in September 2021 the price had risen to $ 73 so more than double in February 2024 then a few weeks ago the price had risen again to $ 84 a spectacular return looking only at these three data everyone would like to have bought these shares in 2018 at $ 17 or even in 2021 at $ 73 we discover however that the shares in question are those of Meta and that in addition to having had exceptional returns from 2018 until today they have also had three major crashes - 42% in 2018 - 35% in 2020 and even - 76% in 2022 how many people during 2 22 have resisted Without selling their shares meta during the last crash this volatility allows Yes to have excellent returns But for the Terry Smith fund it would be too speculative to go all in on a specific group of companies that can have crashes of this type Mainly because if something were to go wrong investors would flee in panic selling their shares and this is something that Terry Smith tries to avoid With adequate diversification and this in my opinion is one of the great advantages that we small investors can have compared to large funds we in fact do not have clients to satisfy and we can manage the portfolio in total freedom this does not mean betting everything on a single stock but we certainly do not have any constraints on the percentages of each company in the portfolio in my opinion we therefore have many advantages that give us the possibility of beating the market and I would like to talk about it possibly in a specific video so let me know in the comments below If it could be an interesting topic that you might like Third point The returns Terry Smith also has I wanted to underline how the last two years have been a bit anomalous compared to the historical average.
In this image we can see the sectors and companies that have had the best returns in the last two years. The energy sector certainly stands out in first place with 45 companies. smth has always maintained that this is a bad sector to invest in because it is highly cyclical and therefore it is difficult to obtain excellent returns in the long term without trying to guess when to buy and when to sell.
Among the best sectors of the last two years we also find that of banks. This is also a sector that Terry Smith does not particularly like although he confessed during the conference that there is a bank that is following carefully and could buy its shares in the future. However, he did not name names.
So we do not know which one it is. In short, the concept that we take home is that in the long term, quality companies bring us excellent returns but there can be periods in which other less exceptional companies have their moment of glory and this is what has happened in the last two years according to Terry Smith.
Fourth point, we all make mistakes. Terry Smith has in fact admitted to having made a mistake by selling Amazon shares, explaining that he made a decision Perhaps too hasty based on some moves planned by Amazon management and with which he did not agree, moves that however have not been put into practice at least for now and therefore the lesson to be learned in this case is to always take all the time necessary to decide when to buy or sell a stock.
If he had waited a little longer he could have followed the updates on the matter and most likely would have kept his Amazon shares recording excellent returns. Terry Smith justified himself by saying that he trusted the statements of the management and therefore that he made the right decision at the time.
It was not his fault if the managers later changed their minds. Before we discover the fifth and final point together, if you are enjoying this video I would kindly ask you to like and subscribe to the channel. You know that for me the last point concerns the possible consequences of a Trump victory.
In the next American elections in this case, Terry Smith simply says that there will be no particular consequences. In fact, in the period from the end of 2016 to the end of 2020 during which Trump was president, the famous MSI World index on the stock market of developed countries has recorded a return of around 66%, that is 12.5% every year, a truly excellent return.
The concept to take home in this case is that the president of the United States does not have such a significant impact on the stock market as many might think, therefore the task of us investors always remains the same, that is, to invest in shares of high- quality companies regardless of who the president of the United States is.
Terry Smith's assistant concluded the speech by also quoting Warren Buffett when he was also asked the same thing. Here is what Buff Ro replied. American President Aman presid Nuclear confrontation other than that American ta Will Survive agree with Terry Impa is per waren Buffett The only task of the president of the United States is only to prevent a nuclear conflict.
I obviously hope that at least this task G ries always very well if you liked this episode I remind you that there is the possibility of supporting my work here on the channel by making a small donation using the thanks button. Below is all for today, we'll see you next time bye.
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