저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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테리 스미스 인터뷰를 인용해 배당 중심 투자의 비효율을 주장. 배당은 재투자 기회를 포기하는 것이며 배당 지급 시 전액 과세되는 반면 매도 시 양도차익에만 과세되므로 매도형 전략이 유리하다고 설명. 코카콜라·펩시·J&J 등 배당주가 시장 대비 낮은 수익을 냈다고 언급. 예시로 축적형 ETF 주식 매도 시 세후 94.80, 분배금 수령 시 세후 74로 차이를 제시. 영상 자체는 개별 종목 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone and welcome back Terry Smith, one of the most famous investors and the one I follow most closely. A few days ago he dropped the bombshell by making some very harsh and blunt statements on the subject of dividends. His words were very clear. No one should invest in stocks for dividends.
I already know that these words and today's entire video could trigger anger in many investors who love dividends. If your hands are itching and you're already starting to write comments to criticize the content of this episode, I ask you a favor. Wait, I'm not joking. Wait before writing anything. Watch the video calmly.
Think along with Terry Smith and along with me in this video. I guarantee that I will not express any personal opinion. I will simply expose Terry Smith's statements and I will give examples with real ones taken from my portfolio. So all the data and numbers that we will see in this video will be undeniable and cannot be disputed.
Accepting the reality of the facts is the first step to leave behind some mistaken beliefs and some psychological biases to start investing consciously. Then, once each of us has a clear idea of the pros and cons, we can start investing consciously. against every investment strategy Then you can choose being aware of the limits or advantages of each strategy is fundamental otherwise we will always end up choosing wrongly because we will not have a clear situation ready let's start I immediately make a very important premise in my portfolio there are several companies that pay dividends so I have nothing against dividends in themselves I would like this to be clear If I like a company and buy its shares the dividend is the last thing I look at and I do not care if the company pays a dividend or not Also because I cannot choose whether to be paid the dividend or not it is a choice of the company And as Warren Buffett says The important thing is that the dividend policy of a company is clear and constant over time to avoid generating uncertainty and discontent among investors this is true when we talk about shares if we talk about ETFs instead the situation is totally different since I have the possibility of choosing between accumulation or distribution ETFs and therefore I can choose accumulation ETFs that reinvest the dividends maximizing the compound interest if I wanted to collect money as if they were dividends I could simply sell some share of my ETF when I would need it We have already talked about it in other videos but in a few minutes we will also give a practical and real example using my portfolio so as to remove any doubts Now let's move on to Terry Smith, one of the most famous investors in the world, often called the English Warren Buffett for the excellent returns generated by his fund but also for his investment style.
Those who have been following this channel for a while know that I have already dedicated some videos to Terry Smith and I have also taken inspiration from his strategy for choosing the stocks to invest in. A few days ago Terry Smith gave an interview and one of the topics he talked about was precisely investing focused on dividends.
For those who would like to read the full interview, I will leave the link below in the first comment. The host begins the speech in this way: Addressing Terry Smith in the past you said that no one should invest in stocks for dividends. I would like you to explain to us why you think this way and why you believe that investors should focus only on Total Return rather than dividends.
Here is Terry Smith's response: if a company pays a dividend it means that it cannot reinvest that money in its business. This is obvious, the best investments are those that have a high return on capital and are able to reinvest all or almost all of the cash generated to grow the company. A perfect example is Berkshire Hathway, the conglomerate managed by Warren Buffett, which has never paid a dividend in its entire history.
It would have been better if the company had paid dividends. No, because Buffett was able to reinvest the money within the company with a high return on capital, so we should look for companies that have a high return on capital and invest in them. We don't focus on dividends. If we need money, we can sell some shares from time to time.
The problem is that this approach struggles to be accepted by the mentality of some investors who cannot conceive of the fact of selling some shares. And here comes a fundamental part of Terry Smith's speech, who continues by saying: What do you think happens when you receive a dividend? You think that money is created out of thin air and falls from the clouds.
The company is giving you money that it cannot reinvest and it does it for you and it also does it in the most inefficient way there is from a tax point of view. This is because As we know, a Dividend is taxed in full, while when we sell shares or units of an ETF, we pay taxes only and exclusively on the capital gain part, not on the whole amount.
The amount is a huge difference that many investors still haven't understood. And precisely for this reason, we will shortly give a practical example. Terry Smith continues by destroying another pillar of investors obsessed with dividends. He says many people worry because by selling shares periodically, it can happen that they sell them during a market crash.
But what do you think happens when during this crash the company pays a dividend? It's the same thing, yet you don't complain, and in fact, this has always left me astonished. The detractors of accumulating ETFs always complain because in these ETFs, dividends are always reinvested even when prices are at their highest, but at the same time, they don't complain when distribution ETFs pay dividends during crashes, when prices are lowest.
In these moments, it would be ideal to reinvest them, and only an accumulating ETF can do this without paying us the taxes that we pay when we collect a dividend, so in In this case, dividend lovers only look at what is convenient for them, ignoring all the negative aspects of the distribution. This is not the way to reason correctly and Terry Smith continues to twist the knife in the wound.
These investors seem not to understand where the money received in dividends comes from. They come from the cash available to the company which is not reinvested in the business and has the same effect as selling shares manually. So I confirm what I have always said. No one should invest in stocks for dividends.
Because people end up making bad investment choices by obsessing over dividends. By looking for dividends, they end up buying companies that generate lower returns in the long term. Terry Smith is saying that very often, obsessing over dividends leads people to buy stocks that generate lower returns than the market in the long term.
Some examples are the famous Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Johnson and Johnson companies that have been paying increasing dividends for 50 years but which in the last 10 or 20 years have generated total returns lower than the market even including dividends in the calculation. Therefore, anyone who has invested in these stocks has left money on the street compared to buying a simple ETF, but taking on the risk of losing money.
a greater specific risk for the individual company This obviously does not mean that no one should invest in these companies everyone must be free to invest as they wish But whoever does so Must be aware that they will most likely have lower returns That's all so in a nutshell Terry Smith says not to look at the dividend paid by a company he says to concentrate only on the best companies and the returns will come by themselves otherwise we risk leaving a lot of money on the street If we focus on dividends with ETFs this concept is even more evident and therefore paraphrasing Terry Smith we can say that no one should ever invest in distribution ETFs let's make a real example taking my situation as you know I have about half of my portfolio invested in the accumulation SVDA ETF to make this example let's round some numbers for convenience in this ETF I today have around €80,000 in total Obviously I have many shares and I have an average loading price of €80 today a share at a price of €100 also in this case I rounded for simplicity it therefore means that on each share I have a capital gain of €20 i.e.
the difference between my loading price which is €80 and the price I decide to sell a share today and therefore I pay taxes only on the capital gain portion. The capital gain on this share, we said, is €20. How much do I pay in taxes? I pay 26% on €20, that is, €20. I sell a share that is worth €100 and pay €20 in taxes.
I'll have €94.80 left in my pocket and from my initial €80,000 I'll take away the €100 of the share sold and I'll have €79,000 invested. If, on the other hand, the ETF were a distribution one, I would receive a gross dividend of €100 and I would pay 26% in taxes on all those €100, so I would pay 26% of 100, that is, €26 from the dividend.
The €100 dividend would leave me with only €74 left in my pocket and I would have the initial €80,000 invested as before minus the €100 of dividends detached from the ETF. So, in this case too, 9,900 to recap, by selling a share I would pay €20 in taxes and I would have €94.80 in my pocket, by collecting a dividend I would pay €26 in taxes and I would have €74 in my pocket, an abysmal difference especially if we think about it in relation to much larger figures and keep in mind that in both cases the capital that I have left invested is identical since I am left with €9.99 invested in both cases.
So I beg you from the bottom of my heart, do not write in the comments that by selling shares sooner or later they will end, they will end if and only if one day you decide to detach a 100% dividend. But no one would mind doing that, obviously even a distribution ETF would go to zero. If it paid a 100% dividend and I'm sorry but I really can't understand how it is possible that many people do not understand this very simple concept.
To make a comparison, if I have €100 in my pocket, nothing changes if I have 10 €10 notes or 100 €1 coins in total there are always €100 in my pocket, the same goes for the number of shares owned in an ETF if I have €79,000 the number of shares is irrelevant I can have 500 shares 1000 shares or 2000 shares but in total they are always €79,000 invested so let's repeat it once again the number of shares is totally irrelevant so what do we take home from this video and from Terry Smith's words before making the final point if you liked this video I would kindly ask you for a like and to subscribe to the channel you know that it always makes me very happy and obviously I am very curious to read your comments below hoping that you have all understood that there is no intention on my part to create controversy but only to divulge unequivocal facts First of all I would like to underline that I have nothing against dividends or against those who invest based on dividends Everyone is completely free to invest as they want and indeed everyone must invest in the way that makes them feel more at peace and lets them sleep soundly so if for someone the only way is investing in dividends then so be it.
Of course also Terry Smith in his Investment fund has bought some companies famous for their dividends such as Pepsi, Philip Morris and Proctor and Gamble but he didn't do it for the sales he did it mainly because their share prices are generally less volatile than average and he needs his fund not to be subject to excessive price fluctuations since otherwise many investors would not be able to bear it emotionally Terry Smith then suggests focusing on the quality of the companies and not paying too much attention to the dividends since otherwise we risk choosing companies that will bring us returns lower than the market making us leave money on the street and moreover also taking on a specific risk the dividends, if there are any, are only part of the total return which is the only thing that Cont for us investors In conclusion the important thing is to be aware of the pros and cons if this awareness is present Then it is fine to choose the strategy that each of us prefers even if it is less profitable the problem arises when there is no this awareness when we deny the mathematics and when we think that the distributing ITFs are more efficient than the accumulating ones this is false and we have demonstrated it with the example from a moment ago Otherwise If we don't have this awareness we might believe we're making the right choices but in reality we're making the wrong choices.
It would be like trying to solve math equations thinking that 2 + 2 equals five. If the premises are wrong, all subsequent calculations will also be wrong. And the same goes for our investment choices. I really hope I don't see too much controversy in the comments below because in this episode we've seen some unequivocal facts together and I hope that each of us can use this information in the best way before saying goodbye.
I remind you that until the end of October, the promotion for registering on Directa, the intermediary that I use for all my investments, is active. By registering on Directa using my invitation code, you will have a €100 commission bonus until the end of the year. This means that you won't pay the first €100 of commissions and they will be free until the end of the year.
And finally, I also remind you that you can follow the progress of my portfolio in real time via the Get Queen website, the link of which you can find below in the description. That's really all for today, all that's left is to see you in the next episode. Bye.
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