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Ray Dalio의 부채 사이클 및 '통화정책 3' 관점을 소개하며, 현금은 실질수익률 저하로 위험자산이며 주식 밸류에이션 지표는 기술 변화로 의미가 줄었다고 봄. 비트코인은 교환수단·가치저장 기능 미흡으로 평가가 부정적이나 Dalio의 최근 발언은 맥락상 분산투자 얘기였다고 정리. 진행자는 채권·현금을 보유하지 않는다고 밝힘.
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there there's a period of uh I think great uncertainty and great risk um and so um I think there are three words um diversification um liquidity and then differentiation ralo runs the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates the belief and narrative has certainly been in 2020 there's no such thing as a free lunch is this actually correct are we coming towards the end of what Ray Dalo terms the debt cycle should we avoid holding cash what are the best assets to actually invest in I discuss Ray Doo's thoughts and recent comments in this video I in my opinion don't own bonds and don't own cash because they're producing a lot of debt and producing a lot of money to fund it and so that's changing the nature of capital flows it's also changing how it how those flows go to China in terms of the comparison of that market particularly as it opens up so I think it's behaving sensibly but don't use old multiples as reflections of the limitations of what's expensive so you can see that Ray Doo very very clear on his opinion what he said repeatedly is we need to pay attention to the value of debt and money relative to the value of assets and actually other currencies and I I wanted to study the Rises and declines of Reserve currency Empires so I needed to go back far enough than I would have a few so I had to go back 500 years so I could see the rise and decline of the Dutch Empire and its Reserve currency the rise and decline of the British Empire and its Reserve currency the rise and beginning of decline for the United States and its Reserve currency so Ray Delia has been doing some interesting research recently with regards to rise and fall of great Empires and you can see here in this diagram what he's kind of referring to you can look at the Netherlands there the Orange Line back in the 1600s or the UK back in the 1800s or China in only the last 20 to 30 years so I think the point he's making is a good one but what is the time frame we're talking about here we could be talking about decades to see any real change in terms of worldwide superpowers there's actually a great quote by Neil Ferguson from Bloomberg which says history also teaches us debt and power are connected a great power or Empire that accumulates too high a mountain of debt and fails to keep growth ahead of debt service is destined to decline but is this actually true Ray Dalo actually talks about monetary policy 3 let's hear what he says on that the long-term debt and monetary cycle which I mean um the creating a lot of debt monetizing it and the implications of that which reverberate through the system in terms of of all the markets and everything and so we're in a new era okay of monetary policy 3 as I call it monetary policy three will mean that the free market will play a much less role it it'll in determining those Capital Market flows that the government as we come into the future will be thinking how do I get that money to those who need it the most so it'll be a highly political decision much more political than it was in the past and that the central bank then will monetize those political decisions so monetary policy 3 means there's that type of coop cooperation but is there really such a thing as a free lunch again I think most investors would say no but given how 2020 is gone is there an argument that you can actually get away with it well Jason Ferman and Lawrence Summers economists argue that public borrowing today offers something that is very rare a free lunch and the reason for that is the low interest rates so how does that actually work well we already know there isn't actually any correlation between debt to GDP ratio and long-term interest rates same way size of central bank balance sheets has no correlation with inflation as we've definitely seen this year but the key thing here to be aware of is the actual Debt Service cost government's refinance debt and it's the debt interest only the debt interest that must be comfortably payable from a country's current income now we've seen problems in the EU for example with Greece and Italy but the issue there was The Debt Service cost and the fact that as they accumulated more debt their interest rate on that debt was actually increasing and it's actually time that's a critical Factor you can see here in this graph if we set debt to GDP ratio as an example anywhere between 100 11% to 150% you can see all other things being equal in the first few years there's not a massive impact on debt to GDP long term however the problems come many many years down the road so what does Ray doio actually think about cash right now well I think first the most important thing um is to realize first uh cash is a risky asset um I think so many people think if go to cash I'm going to be safe because it's much less volatile but please realize in this environment of producing a lot more cash uh the real returns go down it's a seductive um risk risky asset because let's say relative to inflation you might get taxed 2% a year and as your tax 2% a year that's a huge amount of money over time but it's a subtle tax so First Watch that so I'm inclined to agree with that in terms of uh potential returns especially when we consider that savings accounts won't offer much in terms of interest payments however what about the risk element of cash he's talking about the cash risk there but what about the risk when it comes to investing in other assets an easy example is the stock market where traditional indicators tell us the stock market is way overvalued however we're slowly beginning to realize that those traditional indicators just don't matter anymore it's smart for a company to have a technology that's going to replace people in jobs but you get to a smaller and smaller percentage of the population that makes that technology and benefits it and it produces that W wider wealth capap I actually agree with him on this and I think this has been a trend change for many many years now now what what are governments going to do about it what can they do companies will always look for the most efficient way to do things and they will actually cut costs wherever possible I have no idea what the solution to that is to be honest what do you think is going to happen uh please comment below let me know your thoughts now let's talk about what diio says with regards to bitcoin uh theoretically it's good but the three basic things are um uh a currency has to be an effective medium of exchange storeold of wealth and the governments want to control it so um I today can't take my bit Bitcoin yet and go buy things easily with it and as a storeold of weal um it it it's so volatile um that its volatility based on speculation is so much greater that it's not an effective storeold of wealth and which is also one of the reasons it's a problem to be a transaction vehicle because if a vendor says I'm going to get paid in Bitcoin and they don't know what that means in terms of their other liabilities that's a problem and then thirdly um you know governments won't and when if it becomes material governments won't allow it I mean they'll Outlaw it and they'll use whatever teeth they have to enforce that they would say okay you can't have you can't transact the Bitcoin can't have a Bitcoin so then you have to sort of be almost like um is it a felony and I'm going to have to be a felon in order to transact and this is a quote from earlier this year two pipes of money a medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth and Bitcoin is not effective in either of those cases now but that's in sharp contrast to what he said recently another billionaire Wall Street Legend has changed his tune on bitcoin after warning last month Bitcoin could be outlawed he said recently Bitcoin has established itself as a goal likee asset alternative but it's very important for us not to take some of these words out of context you can see here with this precise quote he was talking more about diversification than anything else so what do you think let me know in the comments section below is Ray Dalo correct about us coming towards the end of a debt cycle do you think larger investors are taking Bitcoin seriously now and will governments ever be able to deal with the debt Mountain thanks for listening and I'll see you all in the next one
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