저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 암호화폐 시장에 대해 과거 대비 훨씬 나아졌다고 보며 장기적으로 낙관적이지만, 단기 전망은 중립에 가깝다. 비트코인 단기 전망: 월봉 기준 중립~긍정적으로 보며, 추가 항복(capitulation) 신호를 기다리는 중이라고 언급. 비트코인 가격 상황: 고점(2021년 11월 약 6.9만 달러) 대비 크게 하락해 약 1.9만~2만 달러 수준. 200주 이동평균(약 2.25만 달러) 부근이 새로운 저항선이 될 수 있다는 우려 제기. 기술적으로 1.1만~1.3만 달러까지 열려 있다는 시각도 소개. 크립토 시장 구조 평가: 투명성과 과잉담보(overcollateralization) 덕분에 크립토 생태계는 전통금융보다 신뢰도가 높고 장기적으로 작동할 것이라고 주장. 테라/루나 사태: 알고리즘 스테이블코인 실험은 담보가 없어 실패할 것이라고 예상했고, 실제로 5월 붕괴가 셀시우스 등 연쇄 부실을 초래. 블록파이 사태: 기업가치가 과거 30억 달러에서 크게 낮아져 FTX 인수 옵션 대상이 됨(인수 옵션 가격 최대 2.4억 달러, 신용한도 4억 달러 등). 시스템 리스크는 점차 줄어드는 신호로 해석. 전통 시장 전망: 2022년 주식(S&P500 약 -20%, 나스닥 약 -30%)과 채권이 큰 폭 하락한 최악의 해. 연준의 인플레이션 대응 신호를 주목하며 기업 실적 발표에서 경기침체 신호가 나올 것으로 예상. 리스크: 기술적 분석가들은 추가 하락을 우려하지만, 캐시 우드는 시장 스트레스 신호가 최근 며칠간 없다는 점에서 긍정적.
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that said i will say that uh i am feeling a lot better about what's going on in the crypto world right now um you'll see our bitcoin monthly i would say you know we're neutral to positive we're waiting for a few a few more capitulation signals and of course time will tell on the systemic side here and we haven't heard of another stress signal in in the last few days so so that's good as as well what's happened in the crypto market gives you a sense of why it is a very um why it's going to work long run it's transparent um and there's a lot more trust in the crypto ecosystem because of the transparency and the over collateralization uh then i think there is in the traditional financial markets kathy wood in her latest monthly update of the market has declared that she is still very positive about the potential of bitcoin and the crypto market in general arc invest ceo kathy wood became a sensation during the pandemic in 2020 arc innovation etf skyrocketed 149 percent fueled by its exposure to growth stocks across a range of trendy industries from e-commerce and communications software telemedicine and electric vehicles despite falling 68 from its high the arc innovation etf has still outperformed the broader s and p 500 since its inception in 2014.
cryptocurrencies have long been considered a flash in the pan speculation bound to end badly bitcoin has fallen from almost seventy thousand dollars to about twenty thousand dollars since last november and is now only ten thousand dollars higher than in 2017. an asset with a seventy percent price dive in just seven months is often a sign of bankruptcy consequently given the extreme price collapse in bitcoin judgments that the cryptocraze is nearing its end have again intensified even though the price of bitcoin has fallen nearly three and one half times more than the s and p 500 did from its recent high they are both at the same price they were in late 2020.
it's a bear market and while both are down substantially neither is probably going out of business any time soon before we listen to kathy wood we want to use this opportunity to thank all our viewers and subscribers for their support thanks for watching our video we appreciate you so much well crypto had its worst quarter since 2011 um and it's a much more mature market than it was back then with the boom bust so that's saying something the s p down 20 year-to-date nasdaq down roughly 30 percent uh so the stock market has not seen a worse a worse year to date since 1962 and uh and that was when the cuban crystal uh missile crisis took place uh and then what happened after that is we ended up in the great society guns and butter and inflation took off but first the stock market was was a barn burner it was uh very hot from 62 to 66.
when it comes to bonds this has been the worst year-to-date performance in bonds in anyone's lifetime and by some measures you have to piecemeal uh the bonds but uh to to try and get the record uh the worst since 1788. uh you know that's more than 250 years ago so or almost 250 years ago so it's been a very very rough rough market for investors we think there is light at the end of the tunnel the light is that the fed is getting a lot of uh signals that will ultimately end up in the lagging indicators called the ppi and the cpi uh they're getting a lot of indicators and i think a lot of companies are going to be telegraphing in their earnings reports this next month that we are in recession and i do believe the fed uh will do a a double take i want to spend a little time on crypto it has been an incredible month and fears of systemic collapse have been rife in the marketplace uh so we we've seen uh bitcoin it peaked way back in november at 69 000 and it is now at 19.
19 500. um uh it is still higher than its pre-covered seven to ten thousand range and it is just about at its uh 20 uh 2017 high so this could be some support it's also at um it's it's it is below its uh it's 200 week moving average which is at 22 500. so there is some concern that that is the new resistance now as we've seen the last month play out talk about um a reach for yield crypto personified that defy personified that uh when uh and and we knew that uh the luna terra experiment with algorithmic stable stable coins was not going to work it was backed by nothing and uh i remember we did a podcast with dokwan it's still on our site and i remember listening to it twice because i i couldn't understand what he was doing or saying i am an economist uh by background uh and and so i really do try and noodle through these things and i just didn't think that was going to work and it failed in spectacular fashion in in may has taken celsius down with it voyager digital uh three-hour arrows capital uh blockfi almost it was very interesting uh to see blockfy's last funding round at three billion dollars this is a lending platform and uh tried to do another round recently at one billion dollars uh he couldn't get it done and today it seems that ftx is going to uh is going to buy it out or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million a rumor this week had it at 25 million so much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its last round and as you know if you if you saw our last report we have a lot of on-chain analytics which give us a sense of um of the capitulation in the marketplace and also a sense of what is going bad out there the transparency uh in in the market uh i think is the reason we've seen a lot of failures very quickly uh we have compared to the opacity in the traditional financial markets uh i think the um shakeout in crypto has happened sooner and faster uh than it would have in the traditional financial markets um it's uh interesting that blockfi is is going to ftx we know that two other platforms or companies london which is a or lead lead n which is a um a lending platform in canada highly regarded uh also seem to be interested as did i believe morgan creek now these these are people who really know what's going on in d5 kathy wood also talked about block fi and fpx lock fi said on friday and finally reached an agreement with the sbf led crypto exchange fpx the two parties have updated the previous term sheet as ftx will raise its revolving credit facility to 400 million dollars additionally the crypto exchange has the option to acquire block fi in the future for up to 240 million dollars the crypto lender has been among the most struggling companies in the industry lately following the massive market crash one of the first measures it had to take was to lay off 20 of its staff however it seems the worst was yet to come as the firm announced receiving a 250 million dollars revolving craig facility from fdx a few weeks later this type of loan essentially allows the receiver to withdraw money use it to fund the necessary operations repay it and withdraw again if needed and if they're willing to step in here that has increased my confidence to some extent that the systemic risk is diminishing here with time we're seeing that each meltdown seems to be a smaller one not the opposite so that is giving us some confidence the only reason i think people are a bit on edge here is technicians who um those who really don't follow the crypto markets at all they they're just technicians they follow equities bonds they they don't they don't care what these companies do or um you know what what kind of fixed income instrument it is they just have their technicals and um just off the cuff they they will say well if it breaks from here it could go to 11 to 13 000 from this 1905.
uh and the reason they say that i i can see this on the charts is that's where there is a huge amount of support where it peaked a lot of times uh in a trading range um that said i will say that uh i am feeling a lot better about what's going on in the crypto world right now um you'll see our bitcoin monthly i would say you know we're neutral to positive we're waiting for a few a few more capitulation signals and of course time will tell on the systemic side here and we haven't heard of another stress signal in in the last few days so so that's good as as well so the what i will leave with is what's happened in the crypto market gives you a sense of why it is a very um why it's going to work long run it's transparent um and there's a lot more trust in the crypto ecosystem because of the transparency and the over collateralization then i think there is in the traditional financial markets the flagship cryptocurrency is witnessing its most intense washout since the 2018 bear market amidst shrinking liquidity tighter financial conditions increasing inflation and recession risks as bitcoin trades below twenty thousand dollars the big crypto may see more downside if headwinds from this technical barrier push the price lower this is because it would be the first time since december 2020 that bitcoin is sealed below this level and could suggest that an extended is in the offing what do you make of the kathy wood video let us know in the comments thanks for watching you
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