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That's when the Federal Reserve comes in. There is so much to talk about. Let's catch up on everything from not just what's going on with GDP estimates right now, but also I really want to show you what's going on with Apollo's piece if you haven't seen it yet on recession estimates when we think a recession will begin.
They've got a great piece on this. We'll go through that. Uh but first, let me catch you up on some of the news this morning. UPS laying off over 20,000 workers as they're closing down lease spaces as well, mostly in response to reduced package volume from Amazon. It's unclear if that's really going to get picked up by Amazon workers as, you know, because of the tariff drama, we might actually be seeing a net reduction in package volume.
Anyway, this comes at the same time as the job openings data that came in this morning came in lower than expected. Just about 7.2 million job openings versus the 7.5 expected. So, a loss of about 300 mil there, although some weird volatility in terms of the layoffs and quits levels, which I argue roughly wash each other out, but only really a softening, if you will.
We haven't really gotten the big wam yet in Jolt's data suggesting, hey, we're in recession. Now, some other data, and certainly sentiment is going to disagree with that, but we've also got to be careful with when this data is coming from. See, for example, this morning we got the US confidence report.
The problem though with this confidence report showing that future expectations are at a 13-year low going back to October of 2011, which is like 13 and a half years ago. This data was finished being collected. So, they finished their collection of sort of the survey data on April 21st. and write in responses indicated the stock market was having a really large negative impact on people's responses to surveys.
And if you look at what the stock market did, it actually bottomed not only once here right as tariffs went into effect just a couple days before that on April 7th, but the second bottom you had was April 21st. So you were really trading between two bottoms when the survey was being conducted and you did not yet have these sort of six days of recovery over here.
In fact, one thing that we've been talking about in addition to HIMS this morning uh and and yesterday in the uh course member liveream is first of all this morning before the market opened I sent out an alpha report and suggested HIMS is probably going to get faded. And that's not because I'm anti-HIMS, but because most retail investors in HIMS probably don't understand that a $499 subscription to Wiggoi and this new partnership where there's a lot of competition at that price level compared to the $199 HIMS was offering before isn't that great of a deal.
TBD exactly how HIMS ends up implementing it, but it was a fade trade that could have been played this morning and we were talking about it before the market open. Now, I'm mentioning it here because I also want to mention for the next uh two days, give me a 10-second pitch here. Next two days, we're going to do a flash sale on the Meet Kevin membership.
And the pricing will be going up on May 1st. So, if you lock in that pricing you see now, you'll lock in that membership pricing forever over at meet.com. You'll get these alpha reports in the morning, the trade perspectives, the trade ideas. You'll meet me every morning in the course member liveream when the market's opening.
uh and we'll get to discuss these strategies as well as conduct analysis like we did this morning on SoFi as well breaking down hm what's actually going on with that lending platform and why are we spending so much more money at SoFi there a lot of nuance that you really get out of these earnings but that said what we really want to watch for is is there a potential for markets to sort of fomo continue this sort of FOMO up and this recovery from the tariff warfare uh there's a lot of opium around.
Oh, well, you know, little updates are being made to tariff policy, such as auto tariff policy. Now, car companies might be able to get about 3.75% back on auto production in the United States, uh, which I calculated for Tesla might boost their margins by about 2% if you assume about a 40% US-made content in the United States.
If you assume more, obviously, you could get even more margin. The problem is that's going to get offset by tariffs on the other non US-made parts. So, it's still unclear how beneficial Trump's, you know, sort of loosening of auto tariffs, as they call it, the destacking of auto tariffs are going to be where, you know, once you pay the 25% on the main autoimp imports, we'll exempt you from steel and aluminum tariffs and we'll give you a little bit of a rebate this year and next year.
Great. But like an analogy I've made in the past, there are these little updates we're getting to tariff policy that make it seem like tariff policy is getting better rather than worse. But it's kind of like you broke a bunch of bones in your body and you're in the emergency room and your doctor's coming in and is saying, "Good news, the scratches on your knuckles are healing." What good does that really do you when you're still in a critical condition?
And that I think is where Apollo is coming from. Uh, mind you, there's also some tariff news this morning on Amazon potentially listing tariff prices on their website. This has to do with Amazon Hall, which which is basically the Teeu version of Amazon. Uh, Amazon's clarified this. They don't plan to put tariff prices on their main Amazon.com website.
A little bit of clarity there that uh is useful to have. But anyway, you know, this this idea about being a patient on a surgical table and being excited about these small little healings while at the same time we have blank sailings uh layoffs and substantial confidence issues that will all likely translate into bad hard data uh like you know even even in the Atlanta Fed real GDP estimates which we'll pull up in just a moment here.
The bad news is still coming. Could we get a FOMO rally between now and when that bad news comes? Yeah. And I actually advocate for potentially if you're trying to diversify away from the stock market. Maybe you use trailing stops and you say, "Look, I'm willing to lose, you know, 5% or 10% or whatever, uh, as a bet to try to get some upside in the short term, but then I want to diversify a bit." And then maybe you take that money and throw it into House Hack, you know, get your 5% annual yield until you convert and you get all the upside in the stock value.
obviously read all the details over at houseack.com uh my real estate company uh which which is doing really well. We're really excited with where we are right now. Uh just broke ground on some more ADUs. Can't wait to show you some some updates on that. Uh but what you find is we could continue this trend right here maybe up to 494, right?
Which are the levels where we were at the end of March. I don't know though that we really blast off past that because by the time we get to these levels especially if we move slowly we might be in a recessionary environment and I think that's where Apollo and the Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers are useful to look at.
This morning we got new Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers. Now you could actually see the gold adjusted level which I think is the most important level to look at. I generally don't look at this headline 2.7%. I look at the adjusted for imports and exports of gold. This down worse than where we were in the last two weeks.
2 weeks ago we were at negative.1%. So just.1% negative. So basically not almost not recessionary, right? That declined to.7% and then this morning to negative 1.5%. The reason by the way it crashed this morning is because we revised a lot of the inventory buildup away to lower than expected and our trade deficit is actually now worse than previously expected with some of the numbers we got this morning.
So really a lot of news and a lot of data to hit this morning but the Atlanta Fed has already updated their formula for GDP now showing it at negative 1.5% gold adjusted negative -2% uh 2.7% not gold adjusted. So I think this is where when you put together the yeah like sure there's some little itty bitty oh China's waving this or the US is doing this great I mean it's not bad news right but you still have a critically ill patient and I think that's where Apollo comes in and says look Southwest says I don't care if you call it a recession or not this industry is in recession saving money because of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing frequency of restaurant visits as Chipotle mentioned Uh, by the way, this sort of aligns with what the consumer conference board mentioned this morning.
We went through this uh in detail as well this morning in the meet Kevin membership. But if we look at the consumer conference board this morning, we have a restaurant section right here. Consumers overall intentions to purchase more services in the months ahead were down with almost all service categories affected.
While dining out remained the number one of spending intentions, the share of consumers planning to spend more on dining out in the coming months ahead registered one of the largest month-on-month declines on record in April. So, not great. But going back to Apollo over here, Pepsi says we probably aren't feeling good about the consumer right now.
And here is what they see in terms of a timeline to recession. So they think that we're not actually going to stop seeing ships coming into ports until early to miday. Then it's going to take another 1 to 10 days for those trucks and rails to slow down. And it's not really until late May the trucking demand comes to a halt.
In my opinion, you you actually potentially have this this movement in the cues between now and then up to, you know, 495. But unfortunately, I think after that, we're probably in for more hurt. And that that's exactly why I suggest those, you know, trailing stops as a consideration and this sort of environment.
Uh empty store shelves and companies respond to lower sales late May, early June. Uh layoffs in trucking and retail industry, not until June, folks. It takes a while to get there. Uh and then in the summer of 2025, that's when you hit recession, mind you. Then we start getting the hard data. June, July, and otherwise.
That's woops in after the hard data comes in and goes, "Oh my gosh, what have we done? We've acted too late. We kept rates for too high for too long because we were worried about inflation." When the reality is now we have deflation. Oh my gosh, cut. And that's how we end up trending back potentially to zero rates again.
Isn't that crazy? How firms are responding to tariffs, rapid downward revisions, and earnings expectations, capex plans falling. Although this morning I still saw some decent capex plans. So not all companies are doing this earnings revisions. You can see some of these earnings revision numbers here.
I'll hide myself. These are some pretty pretty gnarly revisions in terms of declines on the charts. The charts just don't look pretty right now. Manufacturing surveys, new orders falling off a cliff here. Corporate capex really still somewhat holding up. You're still positive over here. So you really haven't gone into recessionary on the right side yet.
uh input prices obviously up substantially, new orders in contraction expecting to decline further in April. ISM manufacturing prices, inventories rising, actually yeah, sorry, inventories rapidly before tariffs took effect. This year is an inventories chart uh rising to sort of pre-tock, which really is another way of suggesting that hey, we're pulling forward uh some demand uh and now we're going to work through inventories.
Truck sales down significantly in March. Well, yeah, not a surprise that people would invest in fewer trucks. CEO confidence declining, logistics index declining, China to US trade coming to a stop. Right side over here, you've got uh some more charts on China container freight rates, blah blah blah.
These are a lot of charts just basically telling you, hey, things aren't good right now. Consumer sentiment declining across income groups. Consumers very worried about losing their jobs. record high share of consumers think business conditions are worsening. I mean, we know a lot of the soft data isn't great.
Inflation expectations. Uh consumers worried more about their jobs. This is true. We saw this in the uh consumer uh conference board survey as well that people are more concerned uh about uh here consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months, nearly as high as April of 2009. So, I just think it's interesting when you sort of combine uh what you're seeing in data from multiple different sources, you can really get a good picture of what's going on uh in the economy.
And again, the the broad question is how long-term damaging is a lot of this going to be? And is the medicine of uh you know fewer tariffs basically going to be going to act rapidly enough to help us recover? I don't know. But I know that there's hope and that's again why I suggest trailing stops because I think you know 476 we could break out of this and run to 494 or 490 you know this this mid490s range here but uh but we'll probably have much lower levels later this year if that recession truly materializes will almost certainly be a lot lower and that's why I think it sets up for such an opportunity to maybe trim uh as as we get a little bit of sort of like a FOMO rally mostly because you got a lot folks who look at stocks especially like Palanteer which benefits by the way off government contracts and uh you know sort of doing if you will but I mean Palanteer is almost at all-time highs.
Uh this thing trades for like an eight peg. It's it's very very expensive. But a lot of this is driven by this retail belief that this is the one beneficiary of the Trump administration. Uh and uh you know this kind of FOMO is what people don't want to miss out on. Uh, and again, I mean, if I'm in Palanteer, I'm setting trailing stops, you know, for for a potential recession reset back down to probably a fair value closer to about 40 bucks.
Certainly not as low as 20. Anything under 40 would be a steal. Uh, it could happen, but uh, we'll see. Anyway, thanks so much for watching, folks. .
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