저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 AI를 4차 산업혁명으로 규정하며 현재를 1996년 같은 초기 국면으로 보고 버블보다 장기 성장 단계라고 주장. 기술주 강세장이 2~3년 더 지속되며 나스닥 25,000~30,000 도달 가능성 제시. 구글은 검색·클라우드 수익화와 DOJ 승소로 40~50% 상승 여지, 애플은 구글 Gemini 파트너십으로 400달러까지 가능하다고 봄. 테슬라 목표가 600~800달러, 팔란티어와 엔비디아에 긍정적 견해 유지. 빅테크 부채 증가와 순환 투자 우려는 일축.
다듬은 글
We've had an incredibly big week of earnings, particularly for the tech sector when you had five of the seven mag seven names reporting. I want to break it all down. The AI revolution, which is underway and still has room to run according to Dan Ives, global head of tech research managing director and senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities.
I'm so glad to speak with you and I want to get to the details of this week. But when I think about everybody talking about the AI bubble and you said we go back to 2023 and when we heard from Nvidia and then Microsoft and Open AI and people started to talk about AI in a bubble many times. So you don't believe a bit of that right now.
It's it's 10:30 p.m. in the AI party started 9:00 p.m. Party goes to 4:00 a.m. It Look, the reality is the bears in hibernation mode that have missed every transmission on tech stocks the last 20 years focused on one year valuation, they'll miss it again. This is a fourth industrial revolution that we are in.
And this tech earning season has validated actually exceeded the height relative to the spending. And that's the reality to me it's like it's two to three more years in this tech bull market. So it's interesting because I had a guest on who talked about the bull run that's three years and historically over the last nine years that it still has two more years to run based on the median run of bull markets and that we had at least another 50% plus upside for gains.
Um what say you about what kind of gains we can see whether you're using a specific stock to represent those gains? Is it a percentage on the Nasdaq? Uh what kind of gains do you think we can see when we've already run up 92% in a bull market rally and more so for some of the tech names? Yeah, but Nicole, my view is like this is this is a true fourth industrial revolution and you have more tech spending in the next two years than you've had the last decade.
And I that's why I continue to view this. This is much more of a 1996 moment than a 1999 2000 bubble moment. And I think we're going to be talking about Look, I told Tuckman, get the Nasdaq 25,000 hat and have the Nasdaq 30,000 hat in the drawer. The point is like I think 25,000 30,000. When does the 30,000 come do you think?
I think two to three I look, I that's it's our view like I think like we're going to be looking at tech stocks 25% next few years and I think there's a lot of names that'll be up a lot more. And now there's the view, okay, like what about bubble and valuations? Investors right now are underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution.
Nicole, like look, I I was just gone a month. You know, just got back from a long trip in Asia. Demand to supply, it's off the charts. And and and it it continues to be driven by use cases and the consumer hasn't even started when you think about autonomous robotics in the future. So the Nasdaq you said in two to three years we see that 30,000.
Is that what you think? Okay, so let's talk about some of the names that reported this I mean I just I just keep I just keep focused on you as the derivatives play out, the second, third, fourth derivatives of AI. That's how you're going to have even more and more participation across software, across chips, across energy, across cybersecurity.
So let's talk about some of the names that reported this week. Um what name of the five that reported impressed you most and why? I think it's I mean Google because that's one like just go back six months ago New York City cab drivers bearish on them. No AI that that was going to ruin their search business.
Yeah, queries we talk about in our server where queries are up, you know, every quarter from everything we see. And and especially when you look what's happening on the cloud side. Google Cloud, I mean that they're just massively monetizing as more and more of these use cases move up. And that's why you can look at a stock that has met you know 40 50% upside, you know, over the next year as it plays out.
As well as also winning the DOJ case, it's going to give them the clearance not just do acquisitions, but I ultimately think they'll partner with Apple. That's going to be the that's going to be the exclusive partner when it comes to you know, AI for Apple. So how do you make money on that potential partnership with Google and Apple?
Do you buy both of the names? Buy both. I mean to me that's like if there's like a large cap trade, you you be on both because Apple Look, without AI the stock gets to 300, but if you now you start to actually monetize, you actually have like a legit AI strategy with Google now Gemini as a partner given DOJ has been cleared.
I mean that's how you get Apple to a $400 stock, you know, as that all plays out. And that to me is the one-two punch with Google and Apple. One conversation that I've had a lot with folks is about the return on investment, the spending that we're seeing, the circular investing of all these names. And that for example, Meta now looking at the balance sheet and that they had a 25 billion dollar bond offering, there's debt in the capital structure, that the capital structure is changing for some of these names.
Does that worry you? And if so, how much? Well, it it doesn't because it's like look, you have a trillion dollars of cash from big tech companies in the balance sheet. They generate three to 400 billion a year in cash flow. And when you look at Meta like I think that stock was way sold off because you want to see them increase on CapEx.
This is this is an AI arms race. Zuck right now is wartime CEO. When you think about the stock selling off because numbers come down next year or whatever may be, I'm not short-sighted. I think that continues to be the move and that's why you would you're going to continue to see, you know, worries whether it's bubble, whether it's circular financing like whether from Open AI or Nvidia.
The reality is you're building out a fourth you're you're starting to building out a new economy for consumers and enterprises. As well as also for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. Yeah, well, you know, um China doesn't want that. That's for sure. And you know, that's an arms race.
That's what it is, the AI arms race. I know you have buy ratings and targets on Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Palantir. I think you had outperformance on all of those. Correct me if I'm wrong. With Palantir, um you know, it faltered for a while. There were a lot of questions and there was some heavy trading um in late August.
And then it came back in February. What changed and why are people back on board with Palantir? The haters hate. I mean the reality is the the bears were yelling when it was 15. Screaming from the mountaintops at 50. Yelling fire in a crowded theater at 100. And so on because it like that Look, the view is that they continue to underestimate what this company is doing.
And that is the future. They're like there's there's no better company that's really changing I'd say almost the technology landscape than what Karp and Palantir have done. Let me ask you about Nvidia because we know we had the President Trump President Xi meeting. How did you view that? Do you feel that Trump came out on top or Xi came out on top?
At the same time there was talk that that China would receive chips, not Blackwell chips. And I think we have Jensen Huang sort of clamoring about that a bit. What does that mean for Nvidia to you? Is that a big deal, a really big deal? Yeah, well, you needed the trade framework, right? I mean now it now it's a green path, right?
Because you needed to kind of the rare earth thing, I think China definitely had a misstep there. But now as it all plays out, I mean this is going to set the path for not just Nvidia, but I believe AMD as well. I think they will be able to sell into China. That will be part of the negotiations because there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, that's Nvidia.
But in terms of the broader tech trade, that black swan scenario is off the table. I mean Trump's going to be going there in April. And it speaks to like he I also think Trump administration has a very good understanding of the tech ecosystem, the AI buildout. And that's why having Jensen on your right, having Karp, having Nadella, I mean you know, you're talking about these are really the advisors for Trump and that's a very good thing.
And I've had a guest on who talked about this administration being so supportive of tech, um bringing the tech leaders together, encouraging collaboration. It's sort of the US versus China versus the companies against each other. Um you know, I know there was a time early on that everybody thought tech was going back into the Stone Ages briefly um when Trump came first came on.
But I had a guest on this week who talked about tech's revolution and the AI spending that will continue well into 2030 because he felt that you know, we would have this kind of administration in office until 2030. And that would help the tech boom and the stock market. I mean, look, this is year three of an eight to 10-year buildout.
And under this administration, the next three years, I mean, this is it's a Goldilocks scenario for big tech. And I think for tech companies, especially like we'll see more and more less regulatory. I think we're going to see less regulatory on the autonomous side. You've seen a obviously a lot of innovation buildout.
Because the reality is that China they're not slowing down. Like they're going to continue to significantly build out. And I've seen that firsthand. So it it is an arms race. And I think administration is as tech-friendly as you could be. But then that's also that's a great thing for the stocks. And and you know, and that continues to really be my narrative.
Yeah, just quickly Tesla. Um you know, we're going to hear from Nvidia and Tesla too, but your thoughts on Tesla, where do you stand on Tesla these days? I mean, look, we had $600 base case, $800 bull case. Musk will get approved for the trillion-dollar pay package. As well as also they'll get the xAI stake.
They become more and more of an AI play. And I think now Musk wartime CEO, really focused on driving Tesla into his next chapter. It's all about robotics. As well, you know, to me robotics and autonomous, that continues to be why you own Tesla. Best physical AI play along with Nvidia. You're bullish on all the tech you know, mag seven names and Palantir.
And last but not least the open AI potential IPO. Your thoughts on that? Does that happen? Is the valuation correct? What do we need to know? We'll see as it plays out, right? The golden child continues to be Altman in terms of the AI buildout. I think everything that OpenAI is doing is the smart strategy.
They're planting flags. Nvidia, AMD, Oracle. And more and more they build the stack. And I think that's the right strategy. We'll see what happens in the capital market side, but but this is it's a golden age for for tech in the US. Dan Ives, global head of tech research managing director senior equity analyst Wedbush Securities.
Dan Ives, always great to see you. Thank you so much, Dan. Have a great weekend. Thank you.
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