저자: GlobalInvestmentViews채널진행자 · 외국인
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기술적 분석(거래량, 컵앤핸들 패턴, 200일선) 중심으로 Dell 주가 상승을 설명하고, 반도체 ETF(SOXX, XSD, SMH 등)를 소개하며 이들 ETF 및 구성종목이 강세 흐름이라고 평가. 20일선 눌림 시 분할 매수 전략을 제시함. 구체적 목표가나 미래 가격 방향의 명시적 예측은 드묾.
다듬은 글
hello viewers welcome back if you have seen my last week's video I talked about company called Dell and you should have seen this week's momentum it actually gone up the stock price has gone up 35 5 percentage close to 35% compared to previous week it so happened that you know if you're monitoring as an investor if you're monitoring the news and articles and other things you probably would have not seen this coming but if you stick to the technicals technicals would have told you a story here's an example of it I've been monitoring this Dell stock for past few months and volume was my key indicator and I've been seeing this volume Spike on and off that actually tells or gives me a story that that something is going on with the stock there's some positive momentum going on investors are liking this stock they're buying it that's how I could stick to this particular stock and that's a key point in evaluating or analyzing a stop making sure you stick to this key indicators technicals are some of the analysis mechanism which you can use on a day-to-day basis and you know sometimes rather than depending on the rumors and news and other articles online there's so much content in online depending on technicals will help you to read the story very Val compared to what the social media is talking about and and in this in it just so happened that in this particular context in this company I've been monitoring it for past few months I've have seen the volume Trends spikes and the price movement and I was able to capitalize it or I was able to on board to this particular company bit early then people would have just joined after hearing the earnings call so that's kind of the story long story short always look at the key indicators key indicators if you go deeper analysis it will tell you a story about this stock look at the RSI volume and the moving averages these are the core key indicators which will tell you a story in this particular case volume was my indicator which gave me a context like where this particular stock is trending yeah if you have seen my videos check it out go back and check it out my last week video about this company Dell I I've seen a lot of positive momentum in this particular stock and it has actually appreciated very well this week so keep watching the next stock we're going to talk about is about semiconductor ETF I heard uh our viewers asking for what's the alternate for in the semiconductor space especially you know the way the Nvidia is growing Nvidia super computer super micro computers Intel applied material there's so many semiconductor companies they've been performing really well in this current market and some of the investors who have missed the opportunity here they're kind of lost in this space and I heard feedback or kind of comments from the viewers saying okay what are our Alternatives here so that's when I kind of digged into it you know it you know ETFs is another space to look at it ETFs are generally kind of holding company you know they have shares invested in major semiconductor companies and their price range is also kind of affordable uh range uh I picked up couple of ETFs for today's discussion one of them is the I share semiconductor ETF this is one of the hot one and their top Holdings are pretty much the same every ETF has right now right now now you know their Holdings are they have around 9 percentage in AMD 9.7 percentage in the Nvidia then they have applied material a percentage of allocation of their funds have been invested in qualcom um broadcom qualcom um Micron there are a bunch of other semiconductor companies they have been holding you know they kind of around top 10 of them have been really performing well and you could see that same type of investment or same type of Holdings on other ETFs too now we're going to talk about other ETFs on in this session so but let's start off with the I share semiconductor investing rule first thing I look at it is what is the life cycle which stage it is in okay and there was a stagnation period this is kind of the growth phase or accelerating phase we call it as in the life cycle then we have a stagnation period Then gradually there's decline from 20 2022 Jan onwards there was a good pullback kind of decline till Jan 2023 then it went into base base is kind of in and out of the 200 days moving average I could see till here I considered it as a base because it has not fully G out of the not fully G out of the uh 200 days moving average and then after that uh I think since the October 2023 onwards there was a extreme growth you can see that the the price m is very well appreciated here the same time that's kind of the life cycle the other one is look at the stocks traded here and I think the average if you look at it they have been the the peak was at this stage where 30 million shares were traded and then if I put an average here you traded and there was a good Spike on a regular basis which actually kept this particular stock active because uh off late they have been performing very well because of some of these uh big time semiconductor companies have been doing really well in the stock market so their prices have gone up at least four five times than what we have seen a year back so that's that's a good positive about some of these semiconductor I see are maybe close to 4 million is the average I see and you can see that's kind of the cup model and uh there was a a nice handle and after that there was a spike this is kind of a classic cup and handle pattern you can see that very well and uh the time period is also between Jan 2022 the base was October 2022 till July 2023 there was a good cup formation close to year year and a half then after that it took its own time to form that handle and then there was a spike so this is is a really good cup and handle model off late it's been performing really well you can see that the price M prices was always above the 200 days moving average and you can see on a gradual basis they've been hitting that 20 days moving average that's a gradual nice pull back tight pullback and I I consider 20 20 days moving average is the point by a smaller uh batches that's kind of the uh buy strategy I use especially for these stocks it has huge potentials definitely it is going to grow um you can see that with the other semiconductor companies they've been performing really well and and these ETFs were also performing well so on board into this particular stock consider waiting for till it hits that 20 days moving average when it hits the 20 days moving average buy a smaller uh batches that's kind of the upper cealing of these stocks so weec esally for the semiconductor stocks for ETFs it's going to follow the same Trend what the semiconductor actual stocks are are doing so it has the price range is very good for this particular stock it's affable some of these stocks ight material you could see that it's it has formed a really good cup pattern here and handle a decent size handle and then there's a spike so a classic cup and handle pattern I really love this pattern especially these patterns are very well very well works in the bullish um or when you have a positive sentiment in the market so this is uh this is another company to look at it the price range it seems to be affordable not like the crazy Nvidia or other stocks um switching to the another uh interesting stock is the Intel again Intel has been struggling off late but with the new management change they're kind of doing okay um if I look at uh switching between weekly to daily again there was a steep decline here the previous high was 73 something then they went down stayed in the base for a very long time they came out uh somewhere in the 18 2018 and then there was basically a kind of churn on the sideways and then there was a steep downfall due to other companies the competitors were doing really well compared to Intel so you could see that there was a steep downfall they couldn't match up with the competition the the products were not up to date so they had to take the sit they went down drastically and then after that they're slowly picking up various factors involved here one was the management change the strategy changed and they have Investments outside too so those are all coming together right now but it's still early for Intel to say that it is in the right direction we have to wait how the bullish Trend started happening in the semiconductor space could see that there's a good steep growth and then there was a churn fell down crossed the 50 days and there's an interesting pattern getting formed here kind of double bottom if you're familiar with this pattern just check it out online uh interesting pattern but take a look at it maybe some of these things drives um the momentum to so watch out for this stock this is another stock which is also part of the same EDF holding the next stock in the in the ETF most of the ETFs have the stock in their Holdings majority of them have a bigger investment in this space in this particular company so this has been considered as one of the competitor for NVIDIA you could see pretty much the same growth um off late it has been doing very well you can see uh a really good cup pattern here you see a cup pattern here again a good handle and then after that a spike so this is a classic cup cup and handle pattern when the especially with this kind of cup and handle patterns when the momentum is positive in the market you could see some of these patterns work very effectively so again you have a cup then there's a hand handle and then a spike classic one um looking into this stock there are other ETFs in the market 2 stock market 2 one of them is the SNMP semiconductor ETF the code stock symbol or the ticker is xsd this is another one which again it's in the same price price range you could see there's a I I have a daily chart here if I switch to a weekly chart similar pattern similar price range no big difference between these CFS so that's a good part most of the ETFs because they have the same set of Holdings same companies they have invested in their price movement is also more predictable you could probably compare each and every uh ETFs in the semiconductor space or in any sector majority of the investment for these ETFs have been in the leader space you know some of the leaders in the semiconductors are very known like Nvidia AMD Intel super computer microc computer not many of them have invested yet in that uh super microcomputer yet I'm expecting more more Investments coming in off late because the off late it has performed really well the price uh moment has been very very well appreciated there so you could see some of the funds moving into that company too but if you look at this particular ETF again a similar pattern you could see a good uh cup and handle has shown a really good cup and handle cup pattern here there was a good steep downfall touches 200 days moving average and then the growth was upward Trend so that's a good sign for any any company or any ETFs they've been doing well off late and I think the o oober was the breaking point for most of the stocks in the market October 2023 that's when the actual bullish signal has triggered some of these stocks to go up and semiconductors have been doing very well since October if you have invested in some of these major players you would have earned at least three four times what they have been doing 2 to 3 years past so looking at this growth uh this ETF was also been performing well it is a slow growth compared to the S soxx which is the semiconductor for from I share uh this stock again in the same price range you could see the m has been very well there is a sideways CH because I'm in the weekly chart so if I switch back to daily chart you could see that CH clearly you can see if I put the uh line resistance support line here this is what I would consider this as a resistant and support line the price has been churning in this space for some time now after the 229 breakout the price actually appreciated well so watch out for that if you have this resistant and support line these two are a key indicators for you anything Falls below the support line consider that that it you have to wait and see how things move I'm expecting some level of CH touching somewhere in the 50 going back and then picking up momentum picking up because currently it's in the it's in a decent State I won't say it is a over bought state it is in intermediate state I'm expecting this this RSI to move downwards looking at somewhere around 50 48 50 reference level and then picking up slowly so that's that's what I see the trend here again if you look at it there's a good decent size cup and handle pattern here this has been doing a more predictable patterns here I could see if I draw a CER handle on a on a daily chart since July 2023 onwards you could see a really good cup pattern here similar model and then it went in sideways churn then it recently broke out from the resistant and the price is moving up so this is a point to buy there's one more ETF I want to cover in this is the vanic semiconductor ETF you could see a good cup and handle and then after that a spikes again the momentum started from October onwards again the same price moment so good level of handle then after that as Spike if you look at this particular stock again going back into the referring back to my investing rules the first thing which I look at it is the life cycle again it has a good growth accelerating phase let me draw that you see it has touched pullback and this has actually did very well performed very well since uh 2020 July onwards till November 2021 then went into a sideways moment then a good decline phase touches 200 days moving average and then spiked up and this is a really good growth a price momentum standpoint from the volume side if I look at the volume again there's a steady growth you could see a lot of distributions here and then off late there are more accumulations happening so since oo October people were buying the stock you could see more greens compared to Reds similarly if you look at the previous Trend 2019 onwards you could see more Reds on and off here and there some some buy points here but again it's a decent ETF there's nothing bad about this especially there have like major four or five ETFs available for semiconductors this is considered as one of the best ETF their price range is also in the same range like the other ETFs which we have seen xsd and S soxx the this particular stock it's SMH most of these ETFs perform the same model thanks for watching the video please tune in for more videos in the future thank you he
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