저자: LearnAsYouGrow · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 5년 이상 횡보한 대형 bull flag/상승 채널을 형성 중이며 하단 지지선(약 152~163달러)에서 반등할 가능성이 높다고 주장. 실적 발표(약 30일 후) 때 긍정적 전망이 나오면 채널을 돌파할 것으로 봄. 최근 매출·순이익 수치를 근거로 제시하고, 캐시 우드의 매수를 언급. 본인은 테슬라 풋옵션을 보유 중이나 손실 상태이며 반등을 기다려 포지션을 롤오버할 계획.
다듬은 글
and the longer the base you say 5 years the longer the base you know is the bigger the breakout so I think everybody has pretty well lost their faith in Tesla stock it is down big time I've got two put positions right now that are in the money and I'm down big it's actually The Biggest Loser in my portfolio right now I want to go into what I think about it and exactly what the future holds for the stock in my opinion so I'm a new options Trader my goal is just to Simply make a 50% return by the end of this year I want to share with you what I've learned and what I what my opinion is about certain things so if you're interested hit the Subscribe button let's get into it so so far with Tesla what are we seeing in the news we're seeing that people are talking about it being separated from the Magnificent 7 which actually many of The Magnificent 7 so-called stocks are down on the year just because they're part of the Magnificent 7 doesn't mean that they're just a lagard or they have to always be going up to be a good company so stocks they have to go up and down they have to fluctuate that's just part of the business there are outside forces that can affect their business as well so this shouldn't be overlooked but it also shouldn't be something to be too worried about Tesla is just not part of the Magnificent 7 anymore we need to dig a Little Deeper take a look at some more of the different situations going on so also keep in mind with Tesla it is very fond of getting bad news and that is a very common thing that I see in the newsfeed with Tesla it can try to alter your vision of the company the overall look of the company but don't get too lost in the weeds with the new headlines let's take a look at some of the financials here this is just kind of like a highlevel view of their performance we can see here their revenue has been up right quarter 4 of 2023 we see it is the highest that it's been we're seeing 24.9 and quarter 2 of 23 we're seeing 25.2 2023 quarter 4 also we have net income 7.9 billion is the highest that it's been people are expecting this number to go down for the next year but guess what the earnings expectation has gone down as well General view of what the analysts think here we have seven at a strong buy six at a buy and 23 are at a hold notice most of this is not a sell it's a hold and what hold means is that people have already bought it and they're holding on to the stock so majority of people are saying just hold on to the stock we have a strong sell here six sell is three so we're seeing here more on the buy side more on the hold and buy versus just the sell so even though we have the negative news like decrease sales and all this stuff take a look at what people are actually doing for example Kathy Wood is buying now and then we also have just from what we can see on the surface here on this on the tasty trade platform we can see that many of the people here are on the hold or the buy side so keep in mind even though Tesla stock is going down there's a lot of bulls that have turned around now they're bearish at least in the first couple quarters here they're thinking but I would say most of the people that are telling you to sell or whatever right now is just a short-term play Tesla on the long term even in the back half of this year it is going to be a strong play and me personally I think the price is lower than it should be so even though Tesla may be facing some issues as far as sales I don't believe the price of the stock right now justifies the things that are happening in the news and with the company in general so let's take a look at the technicals here we have Tesla stock here on a weekly chart going five years back and I've drawn up pretty much a bull flag on Tesla this is let me just say this Tesla in a big long-term play here is just one ginormous bull flag but even more just let's take the electric vehicle the the model S 2012 it was launched not one of those competitors is anywhere near it we're s years later now let me take your other point this trading around this trading range you as a Trader an investor but as a Trader also understand that when you build a base like that one of two things is going to happen it's either going to break down and that's what a lot of the Bears have been betting on and they've been using every throwing everything at it or it's going to break out clearly we believe is going to break out and the longer the base you say 5 years the longer the base you know is that the bigger the breakout you take a trend line all the way here whenever it first shot up as a young company and drop back down here you take that bottom Point here and you draw it all the way across to this next low and you see where we're at here and then you take the highest high and you follow it all the way down to the nearest Peak here you can see it Trends very nicely here down so what you see here is a nice flag and it looks like a sideways triangle here and that's exactly where we're at right now it shouldn't be too surprising if you're looking back far and looking at it technically where exactly we are in the price action this is nothing out of the ordinary here we're seeing that we inside a channel that is declining over time and what we can expect this to do over time is to break out everyone is expecting quarter the last two quarters of the year to be good but all I but what I think is is that when earnings come out all they have to do is give a promising future outlook for the year and that we will see this stock break out of this Channel and start making some serious moves so earnings is roughly 30 days from now we still have some time before then but I still think that we have an opportunity here for it to turn around and that hey the price I'm seeing right now especially whenever you're looking at it from a weekly chart over the lifespan of Tesla as a public company you can see here that we are not outside of ordinary price ranges here this is not something crazy going on where we have to oh everybody sell sell sell it's going down it's following a channel and I think we're going to see when or if it Taps this bottom line here we're going to be seeing a change in Direction I don't believe that we're going to be seeing Tesla go below this trend line in a very very long time if ever the other thing I want to point out here is that we do have a line of support here so we see that we have a nice base right here and if we cut through we can see that's where it tapped right here and so I just drew this because I think we have some good support here on this level and I think we could potentially hold and turn at this price and this is at around $152.3 cents so I think if we do drop down below 163 you know where we were around 160 we drop down below that where I think it's going to stop right here at this price level and we could see a turn from there so just keep in mind it's more than just what you see in the news take a big picture look at the company in general and hey determine how long are you interested in the stock you know are you looking at it for a long-term play you're looking at it for a short-term play whatever because you may be comfortable shorting at this point in time you're probably too late to the party because it's going to be turning around but as a short-term move a one-day move probably wouldn't be a bad deal but do expect this thing long term to be reaching new highs because the company is very promising don't let the news fool you this is a very strong company and even though it's not doing as well as it normally is no stock is going to go up forever it has to have time to correct go back down and then find a new high so if we take a closer look here year to date we can see that Tesla has done nothing but drop we can see after earnings we had a big gap down it filled the Gap and decided to drop down even more so we haven't seen any strength strength out of Tesla yet but like I said I think we're going to see some support here we could see it turn around after this it could base out and drop some more but I think between now and earnings we're going to see the stock come back up so I'm holding out for it even though I'm in the red on my put positions I think that it's going to go up and I'm willing to roll those positions until I finally get my return so even though my account is showing really low Tesla is still a good stock it's still worth buying and hey if people like Kathy Wood are still buying it then it's probably worth looking into that's my two cents on the Tesla stock we'll see what happens between now and earnings and after earnings keep a close eye on it because it is such a large portion of my portfolio and I'm wanting to show you how I can do a 50% return if I can do a 50% return by the end of the year doing these options so stick along with me hit the Subscribe button and if this video was a help to you hit the like button we'll see you on the 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