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Well, Elon Musk and Tesla have done it again. They smashed and beat earnings and then crushed the stock in after hours. Uh although I shouldn't really say crushed. It's only down 2.4%. But why is what matters and it has to do with some sandbagging on the Optimus robot as well as some other updates. But I have to say this earnings call and earnings report was broadly bullish for many reasons.
If there is any temporary selloff in Tesla, maybe it's because Elon secretly wants to pick up them Tesla shares a little bit cheaper. Because after all, you did have Brad, who's apparently on the special committee for determining what price Tesla is supposed to get acquired by SpaceX form, suggest that the Tesla price for acquisition might be somewhere between $420 to $550 per share to actually incentivize Tesla shareholders with some sort of premium over the current price, even though Tesla's valuation currently already has a massive premium baked into it, which is great for Tesla shareholders.
maybe not so wonderful for SpaceX shareholders, but I will say there is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Tesla and I'm pretty excited about the long term here. Okay, so let's talk about Optimus first and we're going to go through the earnings and all the numbers. We're going to keep this straight, but let's talk about the Optimus robot first.
So, the first thing is Elon makes it really clear he doesn't actually see any competition for the Optimus robot. He says building robots is really hard specifically because of those darn hands. uh they're, you know, human-like hands. They self-repair and robot hands don't self-repair. And you've got all these tiny little servos that have to be able to pick things up softly, be able to have strength in those hands.
And that's challenging. And so because of that, he doesn't actually think that anybody is close to what Optimus is doing at Tesla. And then I can't help but think about some of the demos that we've seen from other companies on robots. I won't mention uh any names. figure uh where you know they'll they'll play these loops for hours basically of these optim or these you know humanoid robots collecting laundry or putting toys in a basket or whatever at different rental properties great fundraising demo right but I think Elon is somewhat casting shade at them arguing hey like anybody can do a deter like pre-programmed deterministic robot go pick up the crap put it in a basket people can't do AI in robotics like what we're going to be able to do.
And we're expecting within a year to maybe a little bit over a year getting to 1 million Optimus humanoid robots out. That's 20,000 humanoid robots out per week. But we've got some work to do. And this is actually where the stock went from positive to negative is when Elon in my opinion actually started to sound a little bit sort of like humble about the process, you know, because oftentimes we'll hear Elon is really excited like, "Oh, we're going to the moon.
You know, we're going to be uh worth more than Saudi Aramco and Apple combined, which honestly if you combine Tesla and uh SpaceX, you're going to start knocking on the door, right?" So maybe that's what he meant all along. Uh but anyway, Elon suggested the Optimus ramps scurve will be really slow basically up front and then you'll start scaling.
The reason for that is he says they're going to have to put them into like a self-play playground. They'll have to make about 10 to 20,000 Optimus robots and then let them play with themselves so they can kind of like learn, oh, this is how I play with myself. The idea is it's kind of like a sport. You could watch golf all day, but if you don't pick up the golf club, you're not going to get good at golf.
You might have good concepts, but you're just not going to get good at it until you actually do it. And then you could iterate on making the robots better. Elon thinks that process is probably going to take a year to a year and a half. I actually think that's still a little bit optimistic. I still kind of see robots as like a 2030s play because I do think there are a lot of things that have to be resolved.
Uh, but I will say, you know, while I originally said 2035, it might end up being a little bit earlier because I do think we're starting to see the improvement rates speed up faster than I originally thought. And I will say one of the comments that I've seen is that uh what you can do with a robot that you can't do with like a car, for example, is you could have people wear glasses and then you could collect that vision data on a person to help train a robot.
However, Tesla didn't mention that. Tesla mentioned, hey, the downside is we don't have the training data, and so we want a playground of robots operating to help get us that data, and that's going to take time, but eventually we expect to get to 20,000 units per week, which would obviously work out to about um a a a one-year curve of or one-year production rate of 1 million units per year.
Uh which is pretty cool. So 20K per week, 1 million per year, that's the goal. Somewhere between a year to maybe 18 months is Elon's time frame. I'm going to double that and I'm going to say three years. So, put me in the 2030 camp for when we actually get a million of these units out. Uh, and we'll see.
Elon says they're going to start with sort of dangerous tasks and things that need to be done 24/7. So, we'll see. Probably, you know, factory style work. Who knows? Maybe they'll work at uh the Iron Forge in World of Warcraft. Who's ready for that expansion coming out? Uh, or that new release coming.
Anyway, let's focus on this. on the earnings call, we heard uh some uh talk about how uh full self-driving demand and the take rate is ramping. Now, we saw this in the actual earnings report as well. So, I was really excited about this. Uh I saw that active FSD subs had increased about 170,000, which is pretty good and higher than expectations.
About 75% of new vehicle deliveries uh captured FSD and Pierre hopped in. you know, the French guy, he popped in and he's like, "Hey guys, so like how much should we assume you guys are making right now from uh FSD, like you guys must be approaching somewhere around uh a billion dollars in annual recurring revenue, right?" Which is really high margin, mind you.
Uh and their team responded on the IR call and said, "This video is This sponsor is brought to you by meet.com/silo." Wait a second. Points for stocks. You may have heard about our sponsor Silo today. It's basically what Built did for rent, but this time it's for investing. So, if you're not familiar with this, here it is.
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Their team responded on the IR call and said, "Yeah, yeah, those numbers are correct." Like, oh, wow. They didn't even qualify it with like mostly correct. They're just like, "Yep, that's right." It's like, "Okay, that's pretty good." Especially if the take rate goes up. Remember, you can't you can't buy out the lifetime access to the FSD anymore.
So, you're paying 99 bucks a month. And then there was a question about like, "Oh, but what if competitors come up with more L2 solutions? Is that going to cause deflation for FSD pricing?" And they're like, "Dude, nobody's close to us." And honestly, I kind of give them credit. Like, nobody's close to Tesla.
Uh there's always been this fear that like oh Nvidia with their drive or in platform or Thor platform or Qualcomm are going to come out and have some kind of competitive product. They just have it. Nobody has nobody has what Tesla has for FSD. And every damn time I get a car and it doesn't have FSD, I get mad.
You know, I go into the Sprinter van and I'm like trying to pull like the Model X little yolk thingy and it's like, "Ah, dang." or or you're you're getting in the Sprinter van and you're like, "Oh, that's right. Doesn't have FSD." Well, once you start using it, it's toxic. It's like a toxic trait. You just can't get away from it.
It's great. It's a wonderful trait, though. Uh I do think that gas prices have helped accelerate their largest vehicle backlog in 4 years. They also mentioned that a limiting factor right now for manufacturing more vehicles is actually battery capacity. Part of this, I think, is they're trying to get less reliant on China.
They're actually starting to manufacture the lithium ion phosphate batteries uh for uh uh or or in Austin for their mega packs and their storage capacity for homes, which that means it's entirely possible. We have the lithium uh uh uh you know uh batteries at where we just installed these power walls, which is kind of exciting because we're a big fan of installing batteries when you have solar.
I feel like you kind of need it if you're going to install solar. Uh and usually what I find, in case anybody's wondering, usually what I find is you got to really have an electricity bill that exceeds $400 to $500 a month to kind of justify having solar in the battery pack. But then the battery pack can offset your power usage during the most expensive kilowatt per hour charge time frames, usually 4 to 8:00 p.m.
Uh, and then you really get a nice ROI from having solar plus battery, especially if you're out in California. So that's generally before you even look at solar, that's typically kind of where I draw the line. But that means we might potentially have that. uh but uh this is good because it then increases the availability of uh batteries that they could sell which have historically been pretty high margin and I think they want to share that with China a little less and become a little less reliant on China which Elon has always historically said but uh they're also mentioning that data centers are clamoring for these mega packs that was said in the earnings call which is kind of bullish as well for this whole you know resurgence of green energy I think whether or not Democrats sweep in 2028, I think green energy is going to come back big and Tesla is a component of that.
Whether it's through batteries or solar, Tesla's part of the trade anyway. Okay, going through some of the uh other numbers we have right here. Uh they mention that well, we've got automotive revenues down 3%. We got gross profit though up 9% so they're able to take a little bit more margin. uh their overall gross margin came in at better than expected, EPS better than expected, revenue better than expected.
However, if you actually look at the company's operating margin, they're about they're less than half of what they were last year. Operating margins only 2.6%. And if you look at earnings per share, uh I mean, you're bringing, you know, 22 cents a gap down. If you look at net income, uh you're you're, you know, on a gap basis, you're at $787 million.
787 divided by 2560, you're at like a 3.8% on net down there. Uh and that's when you're looking at a gap net income. So, you know, little little rough in terms of uh hey, uh you know, how much are we actually netting here? How much are we contributing to the valuation? We could see a lot of minus signs over here.
Really, I think what happened is when we actually look at the income statement to break this down, we can see a lot of the pain comes from increase in costs in R&D. So, going over here, you'll get a little bit of a breakdown. Look at this. Research and development up 69.3%. That suggests really a lot of hiring in not only the AI team or the Optimus team or whatever.
This is really like a big big boy startup on robots and the semi-truck going into you know production but getting the you know getting the supercharger network out for the semi-truck. There are a lot of expenses going in and so their margins kind of getting hurt over here. They also saw energy and storage fall 15.6% in sales.
Some of that was arguably because of the tariff refunds they had to provide on energy, but some of it could also be because of higher interest rates. So, you know, while there's a lot of optimism around the company and the products, the flying car, the Optimus robot, the cyber cabs, there's still the realism of the time frame.
And so, Cyber Cab, we got a little bit of extra color as well. Let's look at some of the notes from the earnings call. Next month, we're apparently going to get the uh sort of release of the Cyber Cab in Dallas. Well, they originally started the Model Y launch April 18th of 26. So, if they do end up launching this in uh November, that would end up being about a seven-month time frame to go from launching Model Y to actually launching the cyber cabs, which is less than the 12 months that it took, more than 12 months.
It was like 14 months that it took in Austin. So, you are seeing an improvement in how quickly you can get those cyber cabs, but it's showing you this isn't going quick. It's not like it's okay, now that Austin's done, we could get cyber cabs in in a new city in 30 days, right? It's still a month, multiple monthsl long process.
And they're expanding the experience for different weather uh capabilities for highways. Uh they're trying to get to 2 a.m. for FSD robo taxi, uh you know, drives in Austin, Texas. They're slowly trying to expand. They're just being very riskadverse is how they're talking about it. Uh now, uh so we talked a little bit about the optimist.
to talk about the cyber cab. We know that's a big catalyst is getting that time frame down. We talked about the Optimus uh the sort of Optimus Academy. That's the selfplay. Uh we need the Optimus to play at scale to have it to be have it be really good in the real world uh more than just you know watching a video.
They say that in Q2 they want to get it to where people will be able to add their own cars to the robo taxi fleet. I think that's smoking crack. I don't think that's going to happen. So, I wrote I doubt this massively. They also think they're going to be able to launch some cyber caps to customers. Actually, I think they said at the end of the year.
I wrote 2027, but if I remember correctly, they said at the end of the year. So, I think this is incorrect. There we go. So, that was actually the end of 2026. I don't see that happening, but okay, that's what they said. They do say that they mostly see the Cyber Cab as a transport as a service product rather than people actually owning it.
Elon comes in and says, "Look, you'd want to own the Model 3 or the Y, not the Cyber Cab." They mentioned that the Cyber Cab has 50% fewer parts than other Teslas. That I think is really impressive from a margin point of view, but I think that's why they're saying like you don't really want to own it.
It's probably because it doesn't have the seat heaters. It doesn't have some of the bells and whistles that you would expect to have in a car that you would drive and you feel like it's like sitting in the back of a cop car. You know, it's the no frills shell basically. Uh now, maybe that's too extreme.
But anyway, uh these were some of the notes that we had on the earnings call. They did say that they have a path to 30 cents per mile of costs. They say they're not there yet now. And we also got a little bit of color on how much we think the Optimus is going to cost, which I thought was very interesting.
They said it's going to be close to the Cyber Cap cost. Now, my estimate is that the Cyber Cap is going to cost somewhere between 30 to $35,000. And that's like cost to build. And uh then you need to add a margin to that of say 25 to 30%, maybe 20%, it depends. So that means the cyber cap is probably going to cost somewhere between $ 35 to $40,000 for sale, which if the Optimus is going to be close to that, you're probably also looking at about $40,000 per Optimus robot, which you know, you could still make the ROI calculation for if you have a robot that can work 24/7.
You know, what difference does it make if you have no robot that maybe costs you $25,000 or you have an available robot at $40,000, but you have an available robot, right? That doesn't so much matter for a business. you're just going to run the math on it, see if it maths out. But it is the first time that I've actually heard them talk about the potential costs uh and and how similar the Cyberc is to the Optimus.
And I find it very interesting that they find the Optimus is similar in cost to the Cyber Cab. Uh that somewhat surprised me. I thought the Optimus robot would end up being a lot less expensive. Uh anyway, then they did mention for the terra fab that there's still to be determined on how the cost is going to get split between SpaceX and Tesla.
Probably because they're going to end up building it together when they merge. So that's probably why they haven't figured it out yet. All right, what other little notes that we notice here? Uh we notice that the active FSD subscriptions over here are now at 1.74 million. Do keep in mind though that probably a good 750,000 of those subscriptions already paid for lifetime access to uh FSD.
So, you know, there's no annual recurring revenue from that. It was really good upfront capital that the company was able to get to help them fund uh some of their development roadmap and otherwise. But the company doesn't get any annual recurring revenue for that. That's why they've shifted to this monthly model because now just like a cyber security play, they could get monthly recurring revenue and they can scale the business a lot faster.
That's actually exactly what we're going to be doing with Reinvest. We are killing the opportunity to get lifetime access this year. Next year it's going to you got to basically pay monthly or annually and it's a subscription. The benefit is if you were to join us now in the super intelligence in one terminal over at reinvest one.com is you'd lock in all of this alpha membership, the trade and portfolio alerts, the reinvest stocks terminal, the homes terminal, the research terminal, all of this in one terminal between now and the end of the year.
You lock it in, you pay once, you'll never pay again, which is awesome. But once we get to next year, people are going to have to pay monthly for it, which is great for the company because then you have that recurring revenue. So, I get what Tesla's doing because we're looking at it exactly the same way.
Mind you, we're also coming out with some pretty awesome modules on Agentic AI for consumers as well as Agentic AI for businesses, which we think there's too little content on right now. So, we're really excited about that. So, go check that out at reinvest one.com. But anyway, that said, take a look at this storage deployed.
We can see storage deployed moved up about 10%, but that storage revenue didn't get anywhere near that kind of growth rate. We actually saw a hit there again, probably because of those tariff refunds. Uh we did see that vehicle inventory has declined. They're blaming the limiting factor of batteries.
Uh some people are saying, "Oh, demand's going through the roof for the cars." I will say they got rid of the $7,500 tax credit and they're basically almost on par with how many vehicles they delivered in Q3 of last year. That's pretty damn impressive. Now, other countries did help step in. US sales did not make up all of that.
So, you know, losing that tax credit last year was still a hit to Tesla. Uh, and so you could even mention you can see the mentions over here. record deliveries in Canada, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, blah blah blah blah. Now, uh we also have notes uh here on uh let's see here, what do we write over here?
Ah yes, uh the compute. So, uh they have their experimentation fab in Austin where they're planning to start quote commissioning equipment. They were a little more blunt on the earnings call and they basically said, "Hey, we still have to figure out how to use this equipment." So, in other words, they've spent a bunch of money on like really expensive chip fabrication equipment and they don't really know what the f they're doing.
They're kind of transparent about that, which I think is awesome. Uh, but uh they're experimentation fab. Elon thinks they don't really expect to print chips that are viable until the end of 2028 or basically 2029. So, uh I think it might take a little bit longer than that. Could be a 2030s play as well.
you could have a whole recession between then and now. But anyway, right now Tesla sits at 400 megawatts of AI training compute. And uh sorry, they expect to be at 400 megawatts of training compute by the end of the year. In contrast, SpaceX right now sits at 1.7 gawatt, so about four times as much.
It's because of the XAI acquisition. uh and they expect to be at up to three gigawatts by the end of the year, which is about eight times the compute that Tesla has right now. So you can see how if you sort of merge these two businesses, you'll be able to take the collateral opportunities of Tesla and access more financing more rapidly to build out your compute technology, which is exactly what Meta wants to do and is why they're doing a stock split, a two for one stock split where on, you know, the split stock you're getting, it won't have voting shares, so they can open up the door to more financing in the future without diluting Mark Zuckerberg's control.
typically and lately in Silicon Valley a lot of people believe that founder-led companies are just able to lead to greater performance for the stock. Uh I will give you an example of a stock where uh a founder bailed and it makes me a little sad because I I thought the future of the company you know I thought there was a nice future for the company but the company's just gotten smoked.
never invested in them, but Archer Aviation was an example of a company where the CEO bailed to go do his robotics startup basically like 6 months after they IPOed. So, it's sort of like you IPO, you get everybody souped up on this vision and then you give them all the middle finger and you're like, "Peace bros, I'm going to take this bag and go start a new company." Uh, you know, I don't like that.
I like the Zuck and the Elon approach where it's like, look, man, I'm in this for the long haul, you know? Yeah, give me voting control. That's what Elon's trying to accomplish by acquiring Tesla with SpaceX, but I'm in it for the long run. Like, you're not just investing a company. You're investing in that individual and and and their sort of vision for the future so that when new things come up, they can pivot to those opportunities to make more money for the company.
I'm a big fan of that approach. I see that as a very Berkshire Hathaway kind of approach. I am not a big fan of the oh go IPO a company and then bail and leave everybody high and dry while you take your bag. I personally, you know, this person might have had their reasons, but I don't like it. So, let's go back to the uh Tesla notes over here.
So, then you've got uh LFP uh let's see sales in Nevada for our energy products. We shipped our first mega packs comprised solely of our own LFP sales. Great. Historically, I made this note that they would just buy from China. Now they're doing their own, which is kind of cool. We've got automotive margins.
Automotive margins did actually impress. We'll uh be able to see that X credit just at the bottom over here. There we go. Automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits actually up at 18.1%. I mean, it's nothing like the high 20s we've seen in the past during the co days, right? But it's certainly better than last quarter.
Uh, and it's also better than where we sat last year, which is, you know, kind of remarkable because you had some pretty big credits back there last year. I mean, I guess I guess you could sort of reconcile that. But take a look at this also right here. In the last quarter, they had to recognize a loss on SpaceX.
In this quarter, they were actually able to recognize a gain of their SpaceX shares of about a hundred million dollars. You can see here they didn't take out any more financing. They basically paid off a bill uh or paid off some debt and refinanced a little bit. Ah, that's not true. They took out Sorry.
Yeah. No, no. Here, here are the numbers. Yeah, they paid off a bill. They took out a 1.1 bill. Basically the same. Capex was expected to go negative, but it actually came in positive uh on a free cash flow basis. So they had a cash flow of 6.2 billion. They spent 4.7. Part of that though was a little funky.
Their payables, so bills to pay, went up by 2 billion and their deferreds went up by a bill. So somebody prepaid some stuff at Tesla. You know, this, you know, maybe semi-tra, whatever. I don't have all the details on that. Maybe the 10 Q will shine light on that when that comes out in a few days. But that was certainly a contributor to why they didn't go negative free cash flow because that's $3 billion right there.
If I took that $3 billion off uh of their cash over here, they'd be negative about $1.5 billion in free cash flow just like they were last quarter. So, there was something funny going on over there with the timing that I'm not I don't really care about. I'm just, you know, I don't think it's something to phone home about as a positive.
They do have about 50 billion in cash and receivables, but do remember that they have $ 36 billion in bills, which does leave them with about $14 billion in free cash, which obviously is nowhere near what they need to be able to fund raise for the Terraab, the Optimus scale out, the Cyber Cap scale out, and all of their greater ambitions for chip manufacturing, which means there's going to be a lot of sucking coming up, and the market's going to have to absorb all of that suck.
But in response uh or as a thank you for you absorbing all that suck, here are some beautiful pictures of uh Tesla semi-truckss. Here are some beautiful pictures of Christmas inspired cyber cabs. Here they are from the front. Here are some beautiful, you know, LED shown cyber cabs. Here is a car flying above the whole lineup of other Teslas.
And here's a jet propelled flying car. And there you go. That should make you feel better for all of the suckening that's about to come. Yeah, they're going to have to raise a lot of money. So, that gives us a full breakdown of what happened with Tesla. Obviously, go to reinvest one.com. We'd love for you to join us there.
Course member live streams every day the markets open pretty much every day. Uh portfolio analysis. We look at uh fundamental analysis on stocks, technical analysis. We do this pretty much every single day with our alpha report. Love to have you there. Uh so if you like this insight, consider joining us there.
Get lifetime access on Tesla. Something else to add and it was a big thing is that Tesla mentions that they should be able to do 5 million vehicles of production by the end of 2030. My projection has been 4 million by the end of 2030 on my spreadsheet. So this kind of boosts our spreadsheet a little bit.
I'm a little excited about the spreadsheet. It's going to get complicated when the companies merge obviously. But I will say on a PEG ratio basis, Tesla's very very very very expensive. But if I look at my project 2030 Tesla analysis, I get a little excited. So, if I go into my uh Teslaon spreadsheet and I jack this up right here from 4 million vehicles to 5 million vehicles, man, I get a little excited because now keep in mind I have some pretty fat margins in here.
Okay, so operating income I put at 30% because of cyber cap margins. Honestly, let's uh let's reduce that a little bit be let's not be too uh too optimistic here. Let's drop that down to 25 really quick. Okay. So, we're going to drop that down to OP Inc. uh on these puppies to around 25%. And that's that's from the vehicles.
Okay. We still have some some uh uh you know, operating income margins that are going to offset some of the SGNA and the R&D for the other components and that. But if we get to about 25% operating income from those vehicle sales at 5 million, the numbers start getting a little loony in a good way. It could get you to a future value about $854, which is pretty incredible.
So, you need those margins to keep growing. And this idea is that the cyber cab at potentially 50% fewer parts and more mass manufacturing is going to be able to get you there. Keep in mind this spreadsheet uh indicates about $200 million in operating income from insurance, 4.2 billion in operating income for semi-truck, only 1.5 on 200,000 bot sales by 2030.
They want to get to a million by 2030. So, I think I have some conservativism built into this, though. Maybe those margins are just going to be too high. But it just shows you how this could potentially build out. Even if I drop this margin to 20%, so we go down to 20 over here, we just leave everything else the same, still get to about $740 as a price target at a $375 purchase price per share.
Still gives you a 17% rate of return. The problem is a lot of these things are way more optimistic than where Tesla's Wall Street forecasts sit. Tesla's Wall Street forecast right now put this guy at uh let's see 386 divided by 1.72 puts me about 244 on a PE ratio, right? 244. Growth rates expected to be divided by 4 47% per year.
That puts me at about a 4.7 peg, which means as of today's valuation, we're probably 2.2 times too high. That means we're probably we should probably be closer to where it's like, yeah, you back up the truck and you buy this at like 170 bucks, right? But, I mean, it's not there. It's probably not going to go there anytime soon because SpaceX is about to acquire it likely for a premium.
Uh that's just where compared to these other companies, Tesla stock itself makes sense. Right now it's got like a put option built into it because SpaceX is going to buy it for a premium, baby. Probably at least. We don't know. It's not a guarantee. So anyway, that gives us some more color on the price for Tesla.
You like that video? Check this one out. I think you're going to love it. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll . Kevin Praath there, great to get your take.
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