저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
주식시장은 지식·인내·용기의 게임이며 장기 보유가 핵심. 산업의 일출 섹터와 경영진의 정직성·배고픔(hunger)·영리함을 기준으로 종목을 고르고, 과거 Cera Sanitary Ware 투자 사례(2004년 매수, 2008년 리먼 위기 중에도 보유, 최종 약 16,400배 수익)를 강조. 예측 가격이나 특정 자산 방향 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
I stole this line from NAC's line, I said that NAC has that same feeling, then I sent it to Ashish ji as well, saying, look, I sang a song for you, I sang a song for BSC, I remembered the song By The Way, BSC composed a song for Bombay Stock Exchange and sang it, later BSC bought that song for a huge amount of money from me and made it their anthem, now if you call BSC here, you will hear my song on the caller's button, you will hear the song inside it and they gave me ₹ so that was my first chance in my life and they said this is my song, invest after thinking and understanding, don't waste time commenting on rumors, this is a business of knowledge and patience, learn from experience and rest and do your best, so I was telling him just this morning that the actual knowledge of the stock market, the knowledge of the Gita of the share market or the mantra, the conclusion, is so simple and perhaps it can be covered completely in under 10 points, depending on you.
It means that you may travel the whole world and come to that place after 20 years or after two years, it depends on you, so if your mind is unbiased and unlearned, then perhaps you will be able to adopt that thing, but if you have come with a lot of knowledge in your mind, then it will be a little difficult for you, so I felt that the essence of the market is that it is a business of knowledge and patience, learn from experience and do the best, never take shortcuts, even accept defeat, the formula for earning money is just to think long term and rest, so I feel that this is the essence of the market, I would tell you in the last line that compress your greed, suppress your fear, do not get misled by people, you should manifest your own victory, that is, you have to find your own path, this means that this is the whole essence of the market, I feel that if I talk to you about the long term, then like you told me that I have three shares, there were three shares of mine which went up 100 times, out of which one share I would like to mention to you that I had done C NVC at many places, many might not have seen it, for them, like Cera Sanitary Ware, I had bought these shares in 2004, I must have bought them of some company at Rs.
2.50-30 and after four-five days, understand that whatever price I bought those shares, within seven-eight days, it increased three-four times but I did not sell those shares at all and after seven-eight days, that which came in the market after March 8, in that Lehman Brothers crisis, understand that if I talk in value today, that bonus became one to one, understand that I had bought it for Rs.
30, that became Rs. 3035 in 30-30-35 and the one which was Rs. 1.25 became Rs. 3035 again, in 2008 during the Lehman Brothers crisis, I did not sell even a single share, neither did I sell it for Rs. 1.25 nor did I sell it, after that I bought those shares, then after that, the recession of 12-13-14 came, then after that Covid came, this came, that remained intact for me, I kept selling little by little, just three-four months ago, I sold whatever was left of mine at one and a half and within that ₹ shares, I got a dividend of around 165, consider it 50, when I got the dividend, my cost became zero, my cost and one to one bonus came, now I sold it for 8200, I sold those shares for 16400, whatever was left of mine at one and a half, so I got this 16400 times return in one share, within my life, by saying this I understood that one share can change your life, one share can make your career, of course it takes time because I also have a court that half the court is stolen, that Rome was not built in a day but Hiroshima Nagasaki were destroyed in one day, which Nanda Sir was telling that yes brother, you have to handle the stop loss carefully, stop loss I'm from Kolkata, so we used to have a theory in the stock market that cutting a loss with one hand is like cutting the other.
It's not so painful that you ca n't cut the loss. You feel this way. The day you win, your victory journey begins with this very thing. So coming to Sera, you understand that it was n't an easy walk for me in Sera. Just imagine, if I held those shares for 15 years, how many ups and downs would I have faced in those shares?
In 15 years, there was the Lever Brothers crisis, the Covid crisis, and I had to endure all the other crises in between. So, how was this the choice of buying these shares? The thing I've learned in my life and what I apply is that first of all, I catch a trend, which sector is the sunrise sector, and another quote of mine is to stay invested in sunrise.
Sector at any cost and stay out of a sunset industry at any cost. So, first of all I catch the sunrise sector that this sector can be the next sunrise sector, then I try to catch its longevity that how long is this sunrise sector, how long is this sunrise, whether it is a 5 minute sunrise or a two year sunrise or a quarter's sunrise or 10 years, so when I feel that if we actually look at it, then I don't get the answer for 10 years, but still I put an idea that today I think this and my mind may be that after a year or two years I will change, this can happen, so I try to understand its longevity that how long will this sector go like this and of course there will be ups and downs in between so that I do n't have to think for 10 years, so if I feel that look, everything is free, you are getting all the knowledge for free, whatever these influencers were telling you on the internet, right now you will get the most benefit in the stock market.
What is important is what not to learn and what to leave. The most important thing is that the don'ts within the do's and don'ts are the most important and there are very few formulas for do's. So I catch the trend that yes, for 10 years, there will be sunrise in these shares. Then I catch the company within it, understand that if there are three or four or five companies in the sector, then which is the efficient company within it, then I try to catch that company and that of course from its balance sheet, from its previous track record, according to the credibility of the management.
I always say that in the last recession, when there was the last economic down cycle or the last bear market, bear market and economy cycle are largely the same, they keep coming and going. During that downturn, during that crisis, how did this management behave, how much did it rise in it? When the entire economy was falling, then it must have fallen less, meaning the growth of the company must have fallen less and when the time of rise came, it did more.
If it has risen, it tells the credibility of the management. I look at the credibility of the management based on its past history. When I understand that this company fits in, then I invest whatever money I have in that company at that time. Whatever liquidity I have at that time, and whatever my history is in the stock market, till date, I have never been in cash.
All my money has been invested, I keep it as temporary cash. If I ever need to buy another share or have taken a preferential one, then I have to keep it. If I need money in two-three months, then I clear it in advance. I do n't wait for the last moment. I don't know what the market will be like in three months, so I invest whatever money I have in this bank.
Saying this, I made a quote which I have said many times that three things are very important for long-term investing: knowledge, courage, and patience. So what is knowledge? This has become a game of knowledge. Which sunrise industry is there and how many? Longevity is its, which is a good company in it and what is the past track record of its management and what is the credibility of the management, whether that management itself will become a billionaire from a millionaire or not, is it in its DNA or not because if it will not become a billionaire then I will not become a crorepati from a lakhpati inside that company, so I think this, by saying this it is very important to know this knowledge, there are two types of knowledge, one is internal and one is external, internal knowledge, you will read the balance sheet, you will see the ROC, you will see the RO, you will do a complete X-ray of the company, you will see its entire history, you will see its entire past, this is your internal knowledge, the second knowledge is here, the other reasons are external which are not in anyone's knowledge, only God knows what that external thing is going to be like the war happened in Iran, now there is a war with Israel, the war in Ukraine is going on, it has been 400-500 days or some doubt has come up Or the monsoon failed, there was inflation or there was depreciation of the rupee, you cannot count these things, these things are not known, there is a royalty, anything happened, there was sabotage in the company, these are external factors, so Geeta teaches us that you should not think too much about the thing which you do not understand, if you think about all the work then what will God do, then even God should be left aside, so this knowledge is necessary, the second most important thing than identification of any thing is courage, as I told you that if I understand all these parameters, at that time whatever liquidity I have, I invest all the money in the company, if I keep cash at night then I do not sleep, if I buy shares, if some idea comes to my mind and on that idea, if I do not buy shares in reasonable quantity and it should be a reasonable quantity till I do not feel that Baba, I will not buy further than this, until I do not feel scared, then my The quantity can be infinite, so that courage is necessary because I know many people and I have said many times that the most educated CAs are all very intelligent, CAs, Chartered Accountants, MBAs, or this, and they have done a PhD, as I mentioned, the poor professors become the biggest victims, which Mr.
Kabra might have told you right now, imagine if a professor becomes a victim, so the stock market is a different story, brother, this is a different theory, this is a different study, no academic degree can get you success in the stock market, this is my quote, for this I have seen many big people, they are big industrialists, they have crores and billions of rupees, when they go to buy shares, they will say I bought shares worth Rs.
5 lakhs, and they feel very happy that they must have Rs. 50 crores or 5 crores lying in their bank and I bought shares of a company worth Rs. 5 lakhs, because they do not have that mental capacity, so my quote is your mental capacity is more important than your financial Capacity, it is very important to have this courage and I feel that after studying in the stock market, the most important thing is that courage, otherwise big people buy 200-300 types of shares, they bought 500 this, 500 that, they open a paan shop and if that one share worth 00 becomes 000 10 times, then just for the sake of boasting, they will say in the party that I bought this share, see it has increased 10 times, ask him brother how much did you buy, he said I bought 465 shares, it has no importance in your overall portfolio, by saying this, work less, work with full knowledge and work with courage and thirdly, without patience there is no work here and what happens is that as I have given an example many times that what happens to patience, many people ask me how did you develop patience, your destination, the destination of your journey, that depends on you.
Your patience decides it, for example, if I go from here to Kolkata by plane, then suppose it is a journey of two and a half hours, then after two hours of the journey of two and a half hours, you will see that you become impatient, okay, that hey, I am reaching Kolkata quickly, boredom starts to arise quickly, you become impatient, but if you have to go to America in the same plane of 18 hours, then you will not be impatient after two hours, you will be impatient after 14 hours, that it is difficult to pass four hours now, the first 14 hours will pass, you will not be able to pass the next four hours, so patience tells you how far your destination is, how big a vision you have, your patience works on that, so my patient, as I told you, I am 10 years old, what do you call infinity, my patience is of infinite period, I do not know, I say that I do not know its price target, I do not know its time target, that never remains in my mind when As long as the wind is blowing together, the wind and the ship are going in the same direction, I am sitting inside it until the management does not do any mischief or there is no problem with its product or if its potential market for its product does not start deteriorating, then by saying this, this is the theory of patience, if you keep these three things in mind in the market, if you focus on this and the most important thing in life to earn money is management, you can earn money only in good management, you should look at history, do not look at success stories, also look at unsuccessful stories, you do not get to know about them because no one talks about being unsuccessful, you can learn as much by reading unsuccessful stories as you cannot learn from success stories, secondly every person is different, you cannot do what I am doing, you are different, your character is different, you have a different personality, so know yourself and after that work here and management is most important and I always say that the three qualities of management which you should look for should be honest.
Hungry and smart management should be honest so that it earns money for the shareholders. By saying this, my quote is Smile, in which I have said that I do not invest in the management which is not 15 years old, but 15-20 years old because within 15-20 years, I have seen three or four big cycles, it has sunk and then it has risen, so it learns a way to manage risk and if it is still surviving today and secondly, whatever hassles it has to face, to build a house, to buy a car, to take club membership, to travel abroad, to do this, to transfer money there, all this in 15-20 years is not the case with every management, but the new management is one thing that yes, my money should be kept aside, my security should be maintained, tomorrow the company may sink, see, we the shareholders are just travelers, we have equal rights to speak, this is fine, a democratic country has given you equal rights, but one thing, please think for yourself sometimes from the management's point of view, when the company When a company is going bankrupt, the management raises money for the company by pledging its shares and gives its personal guarantee.
Now, I know such managements who raise money by mortgaging their houses and investing in the company. Shareholders don't put in money, they don't mortgage their houses; their shares are not pledged. They are fair-weather friends. If the company makes money, you will come to take dividends. The company will not make any money.
You will say, your money is lost, and your capital is lost. But think about the management, its liability continues with it throughout its life. The day you sold the shares, your liability ends. The management's liability does not end. If it took the money, mortgaged its house and property, and gave its personal guarantee, the poor fellow is hanging in the tent.
So, saying this, the pedigree of the management is very important. The honesty of the management is most important. Secondly, the hunger of the management. Honesty, hunger, hungry and smartness, so hunger is very important. If the management does not have the passion to understand that yes, brother, I want to run a new company today, From here I will become a national company and after that I will become an international company.
Today my turnover is 2000 crores but this market size is 5 thousand crores. I will grow in 20-30 years. That means there should be fire in the belly as to how I can get my company recognized as a top five or top three company in India. It is very important to have hunger. Generally, if you think about 63 million SMEs in India, then not everyone can reach the top right now.
The reason for this is that their hunger goes away. At a certain level, generally I have seen that after reaching the range of 300, 400, 500 crores, a person's hunger goes away because he starts getting older, then a little BP, a little diabetes, a little this, a little overweight, a little that. Because after so much struggle, he feels that now what is there to do in life, children.
Listen to all the management, tell them that the children are living in the US. They don't want to come here and whether you sell the business or do it, whatever it is, then that hunger is necessary, otherwise people will think that I have earned enough, so what should I do now, I should run it like this, at 99%, at the same pace, the company runs in a static way, in that the shareholders will not earn money, you will have to leave those companies, so this management's hunger is necessary and smartness, how does it save its company in every problem, like if Covid comes, if anything like this comes, if any policy matter comes, if the stand of the government changes, if any duty is imposed, if there is some problem in the country where it is selling, then how does it come out of it, this smartness will be known from its previous track record, so I think if you combine these three things, I applied the same formula in my 100 times shares, this simple formula which I am sharing with you and mainly I applied the same formula in Sera, even now in whatever shares I have bought, only this I use a formula to determine its market size, management's perspective, and credibility.
And then, as I mentioned, if you consider these factors, and of course, luck plays a huge role in this, and luck also plays a huge role. You need to be there at the right time. Generally, I've seen that I've shown my stocks in two bull markets and two bear markets. Understand that a bull market is a rise, followed by a fall, and then a rise again.
So, good stocks, as I told you earlier, are marked by good stock management. If the market is rising at a speed of 20 km/h, for example, the company should grow at a speed of 40 km/h. If the market is experiencing an economic downturn at a speed of 20 km/h, then the company should fall to a minus 5.
So, when a new economic upturn occurs, that company will run faster because by then, many of its peer companies would have consolidated, and a bear market will arrive. In any crisis, you will see that all the companies get consolidated and the person who is left comes forward and reaches a new level.
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