저자: Kevin · 외국인
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화이자 백신 효능 90% 발표로 여행·외식·엔터 등 리커버리주(항공, 크루즈, 극장, Dave&Buster's 등)가 급등. 파산 리스크 해소가 핵심 근거이며 자금조달 용이성도 언급. 기술주는 과매도로 보고 비중 확대 입장, 디즈니·윈리조트 등 리커버리주 편입 확대. 다만 FDA 승인 불확실성과 지역 봉쇄 가능성으로 단기 조정 경고.
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this video is sponsored by me and the amazing new coupon code linked down below for black friday month check it out it's the largest coupon we've had for the make money from home with stocks course youtube course real estate investing course check it out hey everyone me kevin here by now you've heard about the vaccine pfizer and german firm bio entec announced a vaccine that will be free maybe not for the booster shop maybe that's where they'll make money in the future but with potentially as high as 90 efficacy for preventing coven this is insane news because it's way higher than the 65 to 75 effect efficacy we usually see for anti-viral drugs like the flu shot those flu shots are really like 60 70 effective and it varies every year on how effective they'll actually be so 90 folks this is absolutely huge it is a huge announcement by pfizer now we still have to review this the fda still has to approve this but we'll see so far this shows the power of science today and this bails the world out at a time we need it most now the 90 efficacy figure could end up falling by the time the fda approves this but for right now this is an exciting day for humanity and i'm very very happy and excited but i also want to make money so what are my moves based on this news number one let's do some background and then let's get into the exact stocks recovery stocks recovery stocks are known as vaccine stocks because they benefit substantially from a vaccine well any kind of vaccine news really well positive vaccine news these are your typical airlines cruise lines dave buster's cheesecake factory travel and leisure hospitality and so on let's understand two reasons why these stocks just shot up insanely today including 60 percent for amc 63 for cinemark 46 for dave and busters 36 for carnival 29 for win and more all right reason number one bankruptcy risk has basically all but evaporated the odds that a company will go bankrupt with a vaccine has been substantially reduced this includes companies like dave and busters who just four weeks ago said they will go bankrupt unless they raise millions of dollars in new debt which they ended up doing to help bail them out for the short term but ultimately we need a vaccine to survive they said that and i don't like investing in companies that are near bankruptcy heck hurts got de-listed and people lost a lot of money usually investing in companies that are going bankrupt is just a bad idea when will you eliminate the risk of going bankruptcy in an entire sector that could face bankruptcy you get the market instantly adjusting upwards this explains this insane run-up we've seen today in some of these recovery stocks now the second reason here is vaccine stocks are well doing very well because in the event that these vaccine stocks need additional financing financing should be substantially easier to come by with a vaccine in sight because think about it this way let's say you are a company and you need money just to survive the next six to eight months but as soon as those six to eight months are up you know you're going to survive you're still going to be crawling out of a hole you're still going to be crawling and trying to recover because you're still going to be burdened down by debt but you're not going to go bankrupt and it's much easier to lend to a company when you know that there's a lower or potentially no risk of bankruptcy because there's a vaccine on the horizon and this makes sense now let's be clear recovery and vaccines or vaccine-related stocks still have a hell of a war to walk through we have the pandemic raging cases are going up like crazy our moving average of seven days is up like 55 cases are going crazy the pandemic is still ahead of us but on the other side is normal life again and so to play the vaccine related stocks i'm going to recommend my absolute favorites and show some changes that i'm making but first i want to mention on tech tech is selling off pretty heavily especially the stay at home portion of tech this is like zoom wayfarer and peloton now some of this sell-off is natural and it can actually be a natural overreaction because people aren't necessarily selling zoom or wayfair or peloton because these are somehow bad companies there although peloton's a little overvalued they're selling these companies to free up cash to go buy recovery stocks this is very normal because when bankruptcy risk goes away you go all right well let me diversify away from some of these and put some money over here so you're really rotating one set of money from one sector over to another and this creates potential buying opportunities in tech and this is why tech will always remain the biggest portion of my portfolio but it also makes recovery stocks seem juicy because well the bankruptcy risk is gone and then you get people like me who don't like bankruptcy risks and will come in because i don't like losing money nobody likes losing money warren buffett's two most famous rules are number one don't lose money number two don't forget rule number one now zooming out a little bit let's and we'll talk stock specifics in a second but what are we looking for you know really going forward well expect over the next two weeks many experts and medical scientists to weigh in on the pfizer drug and the efficacy of it and the odds of it getting fda approval my expectation is that we're going to have good news for the pfizer drug and good news for the pfizer drug is good news for the world i believe we will see an insane amount of optimism for this drug which will likely continue to push recovery stocks higher now any kind of bump in the road you know if we get speed bumps in the road or fda approval doesn't happen or the vaccine all of a sudden turns out to not be safe anymore that would be devastating that would set all of this enthusiasm back and we would immediately see this rotation back but i'm estimating we'll probably expect this vaccine to have a 70 to 85 percent chance of getting approved in other words it's more likely that this thing's going to get approved and this pandemic will be over because we will finally have gotten bailed out now if there's any snag in this approval process to me instead of being worried about that as long as the vaccine doesn't all of a sudden come out to cause cancer or something crazy i would say that any kind of minor setback in the vaccine approval process would really just create a buying opportunity as those stocks the recovery stocks kind of pull back a bit lets us buy in a little bit cheaper and get on sort of that recovery wave but see realistically you don't want to be on the beach right now you want to be in the ocean you want to be in the stock market if we're going to be talking about the stock market and waves in the stock market see there's a lot of optimism right now not only is this vaccine news absolutely incredible but there's also substantial optimism that if biden is indeed the next president he will be able to strike deals with mitch mcconnell on a compromise basis i made a video about that yesterday this is helping prop up stocks and both of them have already stated that they want to do a stimulus package and mitch mcconnell wants to get one done by the end of the year which also props up stocks now the likelihood of democrats taking control of the house completely is also i would say maybe only 30 percent possible right now and the stock market really appreciates that because the stock market appreciates less change compared to democrats being in full power and being able to make large changes we have to focus on that runoff election in georgia on january 5th to really see whether democrats are going to be able to get to a 50 50 tie with senate republicans which would then leave kamala harris as a tiebreaker but keep this in mind most bills will still require bipartisan support with the exception of certain funding bills potentially some tax bills and judge bills or judge appointments not judge bills which only require 51 votes but most actions in the senate will require bipartisan support and the stock market likes that sort of consistency and so really when you combine this vaccine news with the promising potential for a biden mcconnell relationship to get deals done the odds of us not seeing anything extreme change in government and the fact that the senate is back to work and has already confirmed that they're going to release a 12 bill package for funding the government tomorrow you get a lot of optimism we get a lot of good news across the board and this is really really good for our economy now good news is also dangerous you know when things are green things get riskier right when stocks are up things get very risky i like buying when things are rent in fact my general rule of thumb is when the market is green don't buy when the market is red buy and today the market is red so i'm interested in buying tech stocks today to me they're a little bit oversold so i'm mostly going to go heavier on tech stocks but i'm also going to open up the door to adding some recovery stocks again now that i feel the bankruptcy risk has been removed now this might seem odd because it's like wait a minute kevin you always say don't buy on green but today's a little bit of a unique circumstance see when we get a world-changing piece of information it's almost like we have an ipo of an entire sector of the stock market it's almost like all of the prices before had bankruptcy risk in them and now they don't that's a huge change that doesn't mean that there's market euphoria right now it's just the market repricing the fact that okay bankruptcy risk is gone and so to me that creates the potential and we'll see there could be a pullback in the recovery stocks especially since we might see state lockdowns again like utah utah instituted a mass mandate so i expect we're still going to have months and months of struggles ahead before we actually get this vaccine and there will be plenty of buying opportunities it doesn't have to be today although tech looks a little juicy today because it's so red recovery looks very interesting to be a part of as well because of this removal of bankruptcy risk so here's what i believe no matter what the market is doing today the reality is companies like qualcomm who's making 5g chips for apple and over 130 other handset manufacturers and hopes to expand into china under biden absolutely great company great company to buy square is absolutely crushing it with their cash app and omni business sales model which allows small businesses to sell and collect revenue in person or online using the same software it's incredible i personally prefer qualcomm over zoom but we could do a more detailed video on that later qualcomm phenomenal company phenom really really good out of all the chip makers and 5g plays qual qualcomm folks then we look at a company like zoom zoom no matter what vaccine or not to me is the xerox of this decade now there are a lot of free alternatives to zoom which is not so good like google hangouts but the reality is our culture will change to embrace these video conferencing technologies much faster than we've ever seen and i do still believe that zoom is a phenomenal company though i did i'm going to reduce how much i add to zoom at the moment even though they're pretty red this vaccine news does limit our needs now zoom no matter how you slice it zoom is still going to permanently change the way we do business and i believe zoom will be the xerox of the 2020s but it is going to face some severe risks from free alternatives like google hangouts and so i'm going to keep zoom a little bit more on kind of the dl we're going to keep them as a smaller portion of the portfolio not going to sell any stocks but we're going to keep them low tesla we're going to keep them as the largest position in the portfolio tesla will keep transforming cars and the world of energy the solar production that tesla does alone makes tesla an extremely valuable company and currently in my opinion an undervalued company this doesn't even mention autonomy and cars and all of the other incredible things of tesla and i can go on and on about this for companies like amazon and etsy and apple these are all wonderful companies and this is why i'm not selling any of these tech companies even though they're red today and we get this impulsive feeling oh my gosh i should sell them no no no instead i'm just going to move forward with a very simple not just calm reaction to what's going on here and so here's what i'm doing in my portfolio i am increasing my exposure to disney and i'm adding win resorts both of these companies compared to the rest of the well recovery stock market have much cheaper debt options than other companies disney is able to borrow at one point eight percent to three point eight percent win borrows at around five to five point six to five point seven percent this is substantially cheaper debt than what you see at the airlines the cruise lines and dave and busters who are all between seven and a half to eleven percent junk bond premium rates essentially now these are all companies though that have made permanent reductions to their workforces and because of that have become significantly more efficient by doing so now while cutting jobs is painful these companies have cut massive costs that won't necessarily have to be rehired again to get to full capacity lots of these companies have become much much more efficient during this pandemic and so as such i'm very optimistic that we're going to see a travel boom after this pandemic now airlines do still concern me somewhat potentially due to less business travel i have to admit that and i do think it's going to be a while before we actually get enough people vaccinated to actually get on cruise ships so cruise ships might require a vaccine to board we'll see but the reality is there's going to be a lot of excitement to travel once this pandemic is officially over so here's a little closer zoomed in look at the modifications i've made i pushed disney up to three percent from one percent win from zero percent to two percent zoom i pushed them down from three percent to two percent qualcomm i moved them up to three percent cloud fair up to two percent i added pinterest to two percent and now's the time to do it i also added delta and carnival at just one percent each this now pushes my recovery holdings to a total of seven percent in my portfolio i've also moved to twitter down to one percent as user growth is really concerning although i have to say i've really been enjoying twitter during this pandemic uh and it's potentially also a factor that you've got this the the censorship issues that have been going on with the big tech that's sort of depressing uh user accounts we'll see maybe that'll all go away uh you could see the complete portfolio of changes by going to met kevin dot com 1337 v14 uh a lot of you who are in my courses got a big preview of all of this this morning at the uh regular morning live stream but uh this goes into a little a little bit more of a sort of a clarified discussion we had a very long discussion this morning about all of this which is very exciting now and remember use that coupon code down below if you want to bundle up you can also email me and i'm a little slow with email because it's just me i don't have employees but you can email me at kevin kevin.com now just a fair warning it is entirely possible that recovery stocks will pull back for the time being a vaccine may not get improv approved at all after all and in addition to that it's quite possible that this massive surge in covet cases is going to lock down part of our country again until we get a vaccine so you really want to brace for impact right this is not a day to go like hopium and go all in uh today is a day to do some shopping and tech and and i don't mind adding to some positions in the recovery sector even though they seem extremely green just think of that today as like an ipo day for for recovery stocks because the light is at the end of the tunnel and it wasn't before so i'm on board with buying today i encourage you get in the market if you have not yet but expect volatility over the next few months we still have a lot of uncertainty to get through i'm optimistic overall though i'm generally very optimistic for america and the future of our country and of course the rest of the world uh so
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