How to avoid penny stocks | Vijay Kedia #multibagger #stockmarket #viral #pennystocks

요약 보기

Kedia는 싸 보이는 주식이 싼 이유가 있는 밸류트랩을 경계하고, PE보다 성장성과 경영진 실행력을 중시한다고 설명한다. 장기 보유 철학을 강조하며 Tejas 사례처럼 확신이 없으면 매도하라고 말한다. 거시 예측에는 답을 얻을 수 없다며 거리를 둔다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Value Trap Value Trap and Value Stocks What are they? Do n't you know what a value trap is? The PSU banks that were there in 2016-17 and those that may be there in 2020-21, I don't know if that serves the purpose. No, you are trying to say that value trap means the shares which appear cheap. But they look cheap but they are cheap for a reason for example.

02. How do you avoid these ? Because it can be cheap and it can also be cheap after that. So I understand one simple thing that if any share is cheap then see, the market is a very dynamic market here and there are forms of both the markets. Sometimes the market behaves so foolishly. Ok? That you will feel that there is value in it and this share is really cheap.

03. Understand and sometimes it seems that he is cheap. Cheap stocks are even cheaper for a reason. Even after 70% reduction, 70% reduction can occur. This can also happen in the market. I apply a simple formula of mine in this. I don't go after seeing cheap shares. I do n't understand growth until I understand it within the company.

04. If the shares within the company are cheap. For me this is not a reason to buy those shares. Today you will find such shares which are loss making companies, so if you leave aside their PE, then their PE is 100-200. There will be some companies which are available at PE of 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Understand that the average PE of mid cap would be around 20, 25, 30.

05. So I do not take any shares of this country. Unless I see growth in that company, whether the company will grow or not, growth is more important for me. After that, if I am getting value from the shares then it is not a value trap for me. There is a real value growth story inside it and sometimes that trap thing that you talk about can also be done by the market.

06. You should avoid those places where you feel that even today banks are cheap. If you are talking about PSU banks, they were cheap even 2 years ago. Even today the numbers etc. have come. See tomorrow the bank's number came. What numbers did Bank of Maharashtra come in before this? Now I don't know whether this is a value trap or not.

07. I do n't know how long it will last or whether it will last. These are slightly slow shares. Let's say something. So for this you will have to keep reading this business 24*7. Are some people saying that there has been so much financing in retail? Every bank has financed retail so much that NPA can come from retail any time.

08. People are spending so much with credit cards. So much EMI system has come into existence. You are buying everything on EMI. So if that retail loan has become so much then you will have to take it out, you should understand and if you feel that you are not comfortable with it then you should not do that, there are so many sectors, there is a buffet there, you should not eat that, you should not eat fish, you can get your protein by eating ladyfinger, it is not necessary that you drink that only, sir I have received some questions, one is we tend to diversify our portfolio but we end up over diversifying, so, how do we consciously abstain from over diversification?

09. Meaning, you want to diversify, but somehow you go into over diversification, so how can you do this thing? No, then stop it. Hi. So, you will have to understand this on your own that as I told you, if you have taken shares of 100 companies. If you invest Rs 100 each in 100 companies, you will open a paan shop.

10. So if there is any share in it, then all the shares are not going to be 100 for 100. Even if you have some shares which get multiplied, it will not make any difference to your kitty. So this is the thing you have to learn yourself. That's why the point here is that you should not over diversify and as Nanda Sir said, don't keep all eggs in one basket.

11. You don't have to put everything in one place. So you will have to keep making these choices. And you also have a quote of mine that says, Buy like a bull, whistle like a bear and wash like an eagle. So whatever seeds you have sown, whatever plants you have planted, whatever shares you have invested in , you ultimately have to keep watching them to see when and what perception of them is changing.

12. So he will help you that yes brother, you have become over diversified and you feel that these shares are going to do less. The second stock is going to move higher. So by selling it you can increase your holding in your existing shares. Look, this is one thing in the stock market which I have understood, here all the shares move in the bull market.

13. This bull market is a blessing for you. That's why I have a song that says, everyone is a genius and everyone thinks they are heroes. The same geniuses who became zero again in the storm of recession. A new life has begun even in the making and breaking of things. Still, do n't lose your senses, the party has started.

14. So this is because all these opportunities will keep coming to you here. You will have to apply this discipline in your life. It is a game of total discipline. The stock market is a game of proper discipline. If you lose your sight for a moment, an accident happens, just like it is written on the railway tracks, if you lose your sight, an accident happens.

15. So there is always a possibility of an accident happening here. So you will have to apply this discipline by concentrating and you will know from your mental capacity that yes brother, you should not keep more than 15 shares. So you will learn this through practice. This cannot happen in one go but you will learn it with practice.

16. Ok. Sir, you had talked about identifying management hunger and attitude of management. So the question is how will we know ? How to get this information? So looking at its track record which I told you that I will not join any company unless it has a track record of 15-20 years. I generally don't invest in that company.

17. I did not invest in this company, not only this, but also in any new company. I invested in the listed New Age and Old Age. So, there is a period of 15-20 years and as I told you that within that [nasal sound] you should see that how did the company perform in the recession of 20089, the Leman Wells crisis, how did it come out of it, what business plans did it make after that, how did it grow in 15 years, you should understand this, I am telling you in a general way that even 15 years ago it had a turnover of Rs 400 crore, even today if it has a turnover of Rs 400 crore, then it is not in the DNA of that management to grow the company, so like now if there is an up cycle of the economy, it should grow rapidly, if there is a down cycle, it should fall less, so this is a formula like this and what announcements did he make 10 years ago, what is his expansion plan of the company, what is his strategy of the company, did he fulfill what he did earlier or not, so by looking at all these things you can understand the behavior of the company.

18. You will know the health of the company by looking at it, sir. Last time you had a loss and then recovered. So what was the lesson? I mean what was the lesson that the loss that you have incurred should not be repeated? No, this is a daily process. Yes, this is a daily activity. Every time we keep learning and every time we learn something or the other.

19. It is not necessary that if you buy 10 shares, then all 10 of them turn out to be correct. One or two scrap caps also come out of it. Like I say many times that there are four types of caps here. Large cap, mid cap, small cap and the fourth one is scrap cap. So if you see that in the scrap cap, this is what is going to happen there.

20. Zero to hero and hero to zero happens here. So coincidentally, it rarely happened with me that someone who was a hero became a zero. I had a company, Easters & Lloyd, which was a Tata company. He sold it to Indian Oil and it became zero. She got delisted. It was taken in 2004, three, four, five and in 7, eight or 10, 11 it became zero.

21. So what did you ask Surya? What was the lesson from that loss? Yes, the lesson is that every time life shows new colors to us, this earth appears better to us than the moon, that is what you call life, whenever you learn a question, till the time you learn an answer, life changes its question, so in the stock market every time you get new things and new question papers, every time you get to learn the way, its simple, that is not to consider yourself too smart, in life, the biggest thing that I have learnt here is that 30 times SACE and A double S, it does not take much time, so whatever is happening, you just look at it, understand what is happening, do not think that I have done it, I have done it, and this is what I have learnt that you should lie here quietly and humble, when Rahiman, sit quietly and watch the day, then when good days come, it does not take long, keep patience here and you are in a good company and with good management.

22. Stay. Sooner or later, the management itself will find a way as to how I can grow and make money, then you will make money. And there are many more lessons. You get to learn new lessons all the time. So at that time, emotional strength, debt and potential with respect to the capital market. How We Can Build It?

23. What? How can you increase your emotional strength? The courage and potential risk that exists in the capital market. So keeping that in mind, how can we become emotionally strong? Brother, its simple that I do not own anything by reading Geeta, so why should I hand over yours to you, there is a simple solution for this.

24. I have two quotes on this, one quote I have written is that your DP statement belongs to the market. Your bank statement belongs to you. I do n't go and buy a car tomorrow after looking at my demat statement and say that my DP has come to this much, so I will go and buy a car worth 20 lakhs tomorrow.

25. I do n't do that work in my life, I don't do that work on the bank statement, I do this in my life that whether I am worth or not, that is some worth worth, sometimes someone tells me that figure in my mind, of course it comes on Twitter that your worth has become so much, then I start thinking that okay, it has become so much, that is a different thing, but I do n't spend on it, I keep that money in the bank till the time there is money in the pocket, then I can spend.

26. So you will have to understand emotionally that this is market money. This is not my money. Unless I have sold the shares, that loss is not yours. That profit is also not yours. Unless you have sold. So I think you can get strength from this. Sir, you said that in long term investment you look at the fundamentals but how to calculate the fair market value?

27. Like the example of Tejas that you gave, Sir, today it has neither EPS nor PE nor anything, so how can a retail investor invest in it after seeing its future earnings or whether it is a fundamentally good stock, then is your point equal or is it a good question and this is a tricky question, for this I will tell you one simple thing that as I told you that I only see that if this is Sunrise, its Sunrise Industry, then I am sitting inside it.

28. But if I tell you about this specific Tejas, then it is absolutely correct that if there is so much loss in it, then even today there is a loss in it, even in the September report that came, there is a loss, even after that why am I sitting in it, then let me tell you one reason for this, this is a specific situation for every company of every industry, this is not a general situation that a company was sold 2 years ago and Tata SS took over a company in it, is it okay?

29. So if Tata SS took over the company, you can understand its scenario that the entire company changed and Tata Sons also invested money in it. 10 15000 crore TS has just invested some money into the company. I don't remember how much money he invested, but he still has 55-60% of this Tata company. And after this, for the last two years, there are talks of him getting orders worth Rs 1215000 crore.

30. So because the order comes from the government. The government's work is so sluggish that it is 12 sorry that it got an order of Rs 12,000 crore. He went and ordered it now or three months ago and what's inside it until then? The institution's holdings started increasing. If we look at it quarter by quarter, the holding of the institution started increasing.

31. And this story came to everyone's mind that ultimately this story has to be played out because on one side there is the government and on the other side there is Tata. So I also remained invested in these shares saying that ultimately the story has not been played out or it has not been played out and in front of him he had declared two years ago that he was going to get orders worth Rs 1215000 crore.

32. So because of this I stuck to it thinking that if it does n't happen today then it will happen tomorrow, if it doesn't happen tomorrow then it will happen the day after tomorrow. Right now I want to tell you one thing. Like I have said many times at many places that investing is like a bamboo tree. If you sow the seed of bamboo tree inside the ground, you will not see any green shoot on the surface for four years.

33. After you sow the seeds, you will have to water them every day. You should get air, water, sunlight etc. But you will see that nothing is visible there for four years. So, when a new person comes for the first time and sows the seeds of bamboo tree, he will be disappointed to see that other people are getting their crops twice a year.

34. It is coming three times in two years. It comes once in two years. So the crop did not grow in 4 years, there is nothing on it. But that is the nature of that seed. What happens suddenly after four or four years ? Those sprouts have to come out of it. The seed sprouts. Sprouts emerge. And within the next four to six weeks, it is said that a 40-50 feet tall bamboo tree grows.

35. So this is the real story of the bamboo tree. So the question is what was that Bamboo Tree doing? Nothing is happening for 4 years. It happened suddenly. So it is said that he was spreading his roots under the ground for 4 years. It was growing underground so that when its sprouts sprout and when it becomes a 40, 50, 60 feet tall tree, then the roots below it become strong and can support the tree for 50 years.

36. This work was being done for this. I think long term investing is also like this, so it is not known when which story will play out. Here, there was no suspense. The story of Tejas was clear that it is going to get the order, it has to come from BSNL, there is no other competitor and it is going to be available, so by saying this the prices were also stable.

37. Tata was also holding on. So then I also remained in it thinking that if it doesn't happen today then it will happen tomorrow. When it comes, it will come well. But you don't always get answers to this question inside the stock market. So the simple solution to this is that it is not necessary if you are not convinced.

38. If you are not able to understand, if you are not getting justification, then you should exit from that share. Or find another opportunity where you see clarity. Sir, my question is that you have been a long term investor for the last 30-40 years. Hey brother, you are telling my age by saying 30 years, 40 years [laughs].

39. So there are two types of risks in it. One domestic factors, one global factors. So let's understand domestic factors, it is comparatively easy. But in these 30 years, many global factors will come like the Lemon Mothers Poll. So the current problems are not India's. India is growing at a very good date.

40. But given the war problems in the USA, how do we navigate such a situation as a long-term investor and what is your view on the macro ? No, the thing is that you do n't get answers to every question here in the stock market, and if you keep your view long-term and you consider it a business, then all these things will keep coming to you throughout your life, and no one has the answer to them, yet I have also written a song in it, sometimes DI, sometimes AFI, inflation, sometimes oil, sometimes dollar, sometimes rain, this is the game of all of them, everything is in the short term, why bother here, just step aside, be careful, in the short term my life or trading my life, sometimes Mac, sometimes Micro, you know, sometimes slow down, sometimes scale, sometimes US, sometimes China, this is the game of all of them, so you are never going to get answers to these things, and the things for which you do n't have answers, and what will you do by knowing them, you will not become an economist, brother, an economist will earn money in the stock market, tell me, some economist has earned money, some astrologer has earned money, there is nothing here, all this money comes here through devotion, you understand each thing and move on, just simple formula which I apply.

41. Yes, I will see this, which I will share with you, in 1980 or 90, you must know Sir Mehta Sahab that Japan's Nick which was 65, 70000, 80000, it probably happened in 19980, whatever it was in 1980, it went up and after that till date that price has not come, okay, even today it would be around 25, 3000, it went down to 7000, I just see at which stage is the growth of this country standing?

42. I mean, I invest only in India. So I understood that if you look at the graph of dub of 40-50 years, it always keeps on increasing. So, within India, the graph of India is also similar that our economy is outperforming the world market. So I am seeing if the economy of our country is running smoothly.

43. If we do not reach a situation like Japan where there is a plateau, where population growth has ended and productivity growth has also ended. Till we reach that stage, we should not pay attention to these things because Indira Gandhi once said that big problems solve themselves. No one can fix those problems for them.

44. No matter how much you think and waste your time all night thinking that if this war with Israel starts then what will happen to my lions? You cannot end Israel's war. So after finishing it, enjoy two packs at night and go to sleep. Why if you don't want to waste your time on that, then I mean you should n't have to answer so many things.

45. Let the management think about it. You think about one thing. Israel went to war or the US went into recession. Did the company you invested in shut down ? The management should think about it, whoever has 50 taka, 60 taka, 75% shares. You have 1% shares in the country and you are sinking the country.

46. You think there will be a catastrophe here. You will start World War 3 with your 500 shares and the poor guy here, Mukesh Ambani, who says 25-25,000 shares, I will spend 1 lakh crore even now. They are happily opening Jio centres and sitting there and organising programmes. You are saying that my company is finished.

47. The country will end here. What happened to my shares, my portfolio of ₹00 ? Hey brother, do n't do this, try to understand a little. The company is running, let it run. Let Biden think about the US war. What is happening in India ? Let Modi think. You take care of your portfolio. Yes