원문 보기
why warren buffett peter lynch and other super investors like them why they don't listen to economists and why you shouldn't either let's start out taking a look at a clip from warren buffett i don't pay any attention to what economists say frankly well think about it i mean you have all these economists 160 iqs that spend their life studying it can you name me one super wealthy economist that's ever made money out of securities you know so there you just saw billionaire investor warren buffett talk about why he doesn't listen to economists he says because they don't do well and if they don't do well why should he listen to someone who doesn't know what they're doing let's take a perspective from peter lynch another super investor who ran a magellan fund for fidelity for many years and had an annualized rate of return of over 25 percent it was between 25 and 30 and that equates to over doubling your money every three years so if you have a hundred dollars now in three years it'll be worth 200.
that's pretty incredible let's look at what he has to say if you spend 14 minutes a year on macroeconomics you've wasted 12 minutes that's by peter lynch so he's saying that you should really only spend two minutes a year on macroeconomics it's just not worth your time if you're going to be an investor in the stock market if that's what you want to be doing even if you're an amateur he said this to a crowd of amateur investors so let's take a look at that clip so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that now i have to be i'd be fair i'm talking about economics on the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year the upturn or m1 and m23b and all these all these m's the i'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices so in that clip there you saw peter lynch make a distinction between two different types of economics microeconomics here on the left and macroeconomics here on the right so what's the difference here's the difference microeconomics focuses on the small scale of things so like an individual market while macroeconomics focuses on the whole economy here that's gdp that's the whole economy gross domestic product microeconomics would focus on the effect on price of a good so how will supply and demand change the effects of price or how will that affect price and then macroeconomics focuses on other things so microeconomics is a lot more scientific it's a lot more based on facts and it's a lot more accurate and it has greater predictive quality too and you see that in the sciences macroeconomics does not have the predictive quality of microeconomics and we see that here in another quote from warren buffett it is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong this is a famous quote so this pretty much means it's better to be i'm mostly right than oh i i have i'm guessing with precision so you're saying it's 100.159 percent you don't wanna do that you just wanna say oh it's around this but as long as you're right that's what's important so let's move on macroeconomists don't win at all they're bad like warren buffett was saying they don't invest properly so why why do macroeconomists lose well it's not the goal of macroeconomics to win in the investing game macroeconomists have way too much information to work with it's way too much for one person to decide what to do with there's gdp cpi inflation money supply also unemployment employment labor part you get way too many components of the pie of information to understand for any one person understand it's way too academic in nature so it's focused on trying to understand things that aren't necessarily important to the investing framework that you're adapting to it's not predictive so it doesn't predict future events very well especially in terms of economic investing performance so this is bad so what are some solutions what can you do what are some solutions for you when you're investing look at individual businesses so go one by one through specific businesses that you might want to invest in so say you look at ford then you look at general electric then you look at tesla then you look at all different businesses but look at them one at a time don't say i'm going to look at the entirety of the u.s economy or heck even the world economy do you think you're going to understand the world economy in 10 minutes i don't think so but you can get a pretty good snapshot of an individual business and how they perform invest in what you know this is the warren buffett concept of circle of competence circle of competency him and charlie munger came up with that idea invest in things that you understand and if you don't invest in things you understand you don't deserve to make money peter lynch talks about this too and investing what you know that's a good point ignore the talking heads on tv this is sort of my personal flavor don't listen to the people who go on cnbc or bloomberg or fox business or whatever talking about all their predictions this and that it's it's hogwash you don't need to listen to it you're better off sticking to what you know and investing in what you know so let's take a look look at individual businesses don't look at the market as a whole if you look at the market as a whole you're gonna perform like the market as a whole you're not gonna beat the market you're probably gonna underperform actually look at one company at a time and look at the micro economics the micro economics that's key you remember the micro that's looking at the small scale of things don't look at the big look at the small so look at like peter lynch was saying used car prices or scrap prices or if you're in the if you're in the car industry the scrap prices or if you're in the chemical commodity sector look at the chemical prices it's that type of stuff that's a micro economic lens for things looking at individual businesses invest in what you know so here's a diagram of the circle of competence as explained by warren buffett so here on the inside that's your circle of competence stuff you think you should know or stuff you do know and then on the outside is stuff you don't know and you don't want to be messing with stuff you don't know only stick to the stuff you know so stay within your circle of competence so what does that mean you look at financial statements for the businesses you know so if you're like peter lynch says if you're in the auto dealership business you're gonna know what cars are best what companies make the best cars look at those companies first don't speculate so don't just say oh i heard somebody on the bus talking about the argentina fund i'm gonna go buy the argentina don't do that that's what peter lynch says that's how you lose money don't do that so thank you for watching my video i hope you enjoyed it this is a little different than my other ones please like subscribe comment if you want to see more
Comments 0