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마이클 베리의 2020년 2분기 13F 포트폴리오를 분석한 영상으로, 특정 종목의 미래 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 거의 없고 보유 종목 설명과 포트폴리오 변화에 초점을 둠 마이클 베리 포트폴리오 개요: 최상위 보유 종목은 게임스탑, 베드배스앤비욘드, 디스커버리커뮤니케이션즈, 트립닷컴 등으로 소개됨 게임스탑: 시가총액 약 3억 달러, 장기간 흑자 부재 및 부채 보유, 팬데믹 이후 실적 악화로 가치투자 대상으로 설명됨 디스커버리: P/E 약 13배로 전통적 가치주로 평가, 팬데믹 이전 실적 증가세였으나 최근 실적 영향, 순부채 규모가 큰 점이 언급됨 트립닷컴: 팬데믹으로 실적이 크게 타격받았고 전망이 밝지 않다고 설명, 주가가 이미 높게 평가되어 있어 베리의 투자 이유를 의문시함 코르보(Qorvo): 시가총액 약 150억 달러, P/E 약 40배로 높은 밸류에이션, 최근 사상 최고가 부근이며 베리가 보유하는 이유에 대해 리스크가 있다고 평가 포트폴리오 회전율: 직전 13F 대비 다수 종목을 매도·매수하여 회전율이 50~70%로 추정되며, 시장 환경 변화를 반영한 것으로 해석함
다듬은 글
in this video we're going to be looking at michael bury's portfolio as of quarter 2 2020 in his most recent 13f forum so if you don't know michael berry he's famous for being on the big short uh shorting the housing market before the financial crisis so let's see if he has any insights coming up right now so here i have pulled up on a site called data roma i encourage you to go there they have a ton of other 13f from big investors there uh michael burries 13f most recently this is what was on it so he has gamestop as his biggest holding bed bath and beyond discovery communications trip.com corvo coppa holdings helm rich and payne unity group retail opportunity investments corp max our technologies designer brands precision drilling and kimball international so we're going to start out from the top of his portfolio looking at gamestop so here i have gamestop pulled up on yahoo finance they might not look like a very significant company but michael bury has had gamestop as one of his largest holdings for a very long time now he considered this a pretty big deep value play and over the past year they haven't really moved much at all they've actually gone through the coronavirus crisis with relative ease which is surprising let's take a look at some of the statistics for gamestop so they're sitting at a 300 million dollar market cap uh they haven't had positive earnings in a long time they are in debt and who knows when they're gonna start making money again let's let's go back to the summary let's look at their court yeah so their quarterly earnings the last quarter they made money was q1 of 2020 um but the pandemic recently just killed him big time and if you don't know gamestop sells games so let's move on to the next company discovery so discovery is like the discovery channel let's give a brief overview discovery operates as a media company in the united states and internationally so it's got the tv channels that we all know about they still have positive earnings but their earnings have been affected through the coronavirus crisis but before that their earnings are actually increasing so that's probably what he's playing on they're sitting at a p e ratio of 13 so that's not very high this is more of a traditional value play we see here before the coronavirus crisis they were trading at around 30 a share went as low as 18 and now they're sitting at 22 at a market cap of 11 billion so that's a that's a mid cap stock there let's look at some of the statistics we see the the p e ratios uh it's got a smaller forward p e ratio than trailing that's good that's a good sign a low peg ratio of almost one that is good let's go down let's it's got good return on equity of 12 percent let's look at the the cash and debt so the cash is sitting at 1.69 billion and the debt is sitting at 15 billion so that is pretty significant debt i don't know if he thinks that they're going to be able to cover that or what but i think they will let's see what's up next tripp.com so this is actually a chinese company a chinese.com company that does trip advising and they've been killed over the pandemic their earnings have been crushed and um they're just not really looking all that bright of a future for them let's look at where they were trading before the pandemic before the pandemic they're trading around 33 dollars a share and now they're trading at 28 a share so i'm not really sure why he decided this was his play because they are already fairly richly priced so that is a bit curious to me moving on corvo so corvo let's look at what they do corvo develops and commercializes technologies and products for wireless and wired connectivity worldwide so a lot of people think that this is going to be a big play coming up with uh technology and the 5g movement we'll have to see who knows if they're going to be able to keep their competitive advantages look let's look at their their income statements over the past bit so they're they've been pretty flat year over year for the past year as well market cap of 15 billion so that's a good mid cap stock a p e ratio of almost 40 so that is fairly richly priced you can tell that people expect this company to do fairly well over the coming years um over the past year it performed well it's well over its highs all-time highs i believe yeah so it's it's hitting all-time highs i can understand why he still owns it but uh that that is pretty risky owning a company selling at such a high earnings multiple but i would say he knows what he's doing so that was a brief overview of some of his top holdings let's look at the moves he made so over the past quarter he pretty much ran through his whole portfolio let's look at the activity so he sold out of one two three four five companies and bought a whole another host of companies so his portfolio had like a fifty percent turnover if not seventy percent it's between fifty and seventy percent turnover up from his uh previous uh 13f so that's really interesting that i guess reflects the changing times we live in with uh all sorts of crazy market conditions so i would really keep that in mind take that away from this this look at his portfolio that the market conditions really are affecting the different companies that you might be buying and you might need to change your strategies on a dime very quickly so thanks for watching subscribe if you want to see more
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