저자: Red'sRoundup진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 테슬라를 버블로 보고 공매도 중이라는 주장을 소개하는 영상이다. 핵심 근거는 밸류에이션 격차다. 글로벌 자동차 업계는 매출 대비 주가(P/S)가 약 0.35배인 반면 테슬라는 약 17.8배로, 버리는 이 차이가 정당화되기 어렵다고 본다. 테슬라 수익성 문제도 지적된다. 영업이익은 규제 크레딧 판매 수익에 기대고 있으며, 크레딧을 제외하면 적자 구조이고 세금 혜택도 점차 줄어든다는 것이다. 매출과 차량 인도량은 2년 가까이 정체 상태라 주가가 1년 새 약 10배 오른 것과 괴리가 크다. 주가수익비율(PER)은 1,000배 수준으로 제시된다. 테슬라는 기술 측면에서도 리튬인산철(LFP) 배터리 채택으로 에너지 밀도와 주행거리가 낮아진다는 문제가 제기된다. S&P500 편입 불발 역시 규제 크레딧을 이익으로 인정하지 않는 기준과 연결될 수 있다고 해석된다. 진행자는 버리가 고성장주 투자에는 거리낌이 없고 구글·페이스북을 상위 보유 종목으로 든다는 점을 덧붙이며, 테슬라 투자에는 주의가 필요하다고 정리한다. 결론: 버리는 테슬라가 버블이며 공매도 대상이라고 본다. 영상은 그 논리를 소개하는 데 초점이 있다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to red's roundup in this video we're going to be looking at why michael bury hates tesla let's get into it right now quick overview if you don't know who michael bury is he's the guy on the left here he was played by this guy on the right christian bale in the movie the big short where michael bury shorted the united states housing market before the financial crisis in the last decade so what's been going on now well he's been on twitter and he's not happy about tesla he is not happy he's actually short tesla um because he thinks it's a bubble and we're gonna see why coming up looking at a few of his tweets so first tweet tesla battery day edition at elon musk bloomberg data global autos excluding tesla 2.3 trillion dollars of sales 100 billion dollars of ebit 807 billion dollars of market cap okay keep that in mind tesla 25 billion dollars of sales no ebbit 438 billion dollar market cap and then tesla's regulatory credit revenues are a melting ice cube global autos trade at .35 times sales while tesla trades at a little under 18.
and that's a big discrepancy which he does not think is warranted so he here we have the chart that he or a rather table that he posted with that instagram post it's a little bit confusing we're going to focus in on the key part here price to sales of global auto industry is like he said the .35 and then the price to sales for tesla is at 17.84 and tesla doesn't have any earnings before interest or taxes because their taxes they're actually getting tax credits and that's how they've been making money primarily in terms of their income statement so let's move on to the next tweet from them tesla at financial times hashtag big big read sales of green regulatory credits necessary for profitability in quotes flat revenues as tax credits wane slash deliveries stagnate inferior lithium ion phosphate tech behind million mile battery means lower energy density slash reduced range so this is a pretty jam-packed tweet full of lots of information we're going to break it down so here we see him talking about the sale of regulatory credits necessarily for profitability so that's the onl like we saw in the earlier tweet that's the only way that tesla is actually making money right now is from the regulatory credits now that that might be a big deal to you if you like to invest in fundamentals they are actually flat revenues and then as these tax credits decrease over time they're not going to be in a very good place is what he's saying and then he also goes on to talk about their technology in their lithium ion phosphate tech and they're going to have lower slash reduced range as compared to other batteries and he doesn't think that tesla is in the right when they're looking at their battery technology and then key here he he posts hashtag bubbles so he thinks tesla is a bubble let's look at some of the charts that he pulled from the financial times article and actually put in his tweet so we see here the operating profits in the blue and then operating or and then operating profits before the regulatory credits in the light blue so blue dark blue operating profits light blue before the credits so we see here the only reason they've been profitable for the past two quarters is because of the regulatory credits and this might connect to something because if you remember in the past few months and weeks there's been big hype of tesla being included in the s p 500 because they have the massive market cap that being said a lot of people don't understand that the s p 500 is actually based on what a committee decides and the committee decided that tesla would not be included and i think this is a key point as to why they didn't include tesla because one of the requirements for inclusion is to have four consecutive quarters of profitability and maybe they considered these regulatory credits to not be profitable that they consider them an unprofitable business because they look at them before the regulatory credits and they don't consider these regulatory credits so this could have impacted their decision to not be included in the s p 500 that's interesting very interesting next chart here tesla's revenue charted in the bar chart by quarter and then the revenue excuse me and the vehicles delivered charted on the blue so the blue and the revenue are fairly tracking they they correlate pretty strongly and you'd say there's probably a causation between the two um and if we look here they've been stagnant for a long time and definitely not increasing by 10 times over the night over the past year because that's actually what tesla's stock price has done over the past year it's gone up like 10 times almost so if we look for the past two quarters i know that we're in a pandemic but if if you look at what they should be doing they're just relatively flat they're not increasing they're not really decreasing in any meaningful way but they've just been flat for the past two years and i'm not really sure that's something that you want to be investing in while it's trading at over like a thousand times earnings so this these two charts are the charts that he pulled out as some of his reasoning for why he's short tesla i'd also like to remind you that michael bury is not afraid of investing in high growth stocks he's not afraid of investing with companies with fairly elevated pes and valuations compared to tesla though that these companies have the intrinsic value to back up the price that you pay in the market so if you look here this is his largest positions so he has google facebook at his top two positions making up over 40 percent of his portfolio at the moment and these not only are they his top positions but these are options hold-ins and i'd like to add to that these are high-growth stocks that unlike tesla have what it takes to make money so when it comes to michael bury he knows what he's talking about in terms of valuation he's very well known in shorting stock so i would be afraid of investing in tesla right now and if you are a tesla bull i'd like you to leave a comment and tell me why you disagree with michael berry in the comments so thanks for watching bye
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